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2005 Apr 11, 5:00pm 184,994 views 117,730 comments
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New Renter
2014 Feb 3, 12:41pm
Looking for a crash of the stock market??? Here it is. Just captured this image (2/3/14) at 11:18 PM EST from Bloomberg...
That's not a crash:
THIS is a crash!:
RealEstateIsBetterThanStocks
2014 Feb 3, 1:55pm
WARPED, DISTORTED, MANIPULATED, FLIPPED HOUSING MARKET
or simply investors and savers wisely buying after clear signs of a bottom.
Bubbabeefcake
2014 Feb 3, 2:03pm
Like this?
We are in a mortgage depression.
Yep! More like prices are going to CRATER!
PockyClipsNow
2014 Feb 3, 4:06pm
jesus! this blog is a useless toilet of nonsense and idiots now
i will not donate money again to patrick.
zionists and truther bullshit doesnt get u banned? FUK U PATRICK!
RentingForHalfTheCost
2014 Feb 3, 6:51pm
The bet is still about
No, if the bet is paid in blowjobs you have to state an absolute level of price at an absolute time, otherwise you're just jackin' your jaw like the talking heads on CNBC. So, are you feeling lucky? There's four trading days left. Don't you want to feel the duck's lips?
Down day coming again. Looks to me like you are the one that needs to sit there and take your medicine.
http://money.cnn.com/2014/02/03/investing/world-markets/index.html?iid=Lead
tatupu70
2014 Feb 3, 8:45pm
Were you against bailing out AIG? Were you against bailing out GM? Were you against bailing out Citi? Were you against bailout BoA? There are not 40,000 large corporations like those in the whole world for you to make that nonsense 99.99% claim. You are just for the bailing out of the top 0.01% at the expense of the other 99.99%.
I don't know--I wasn't close enough to the situation at that time to know what the consequences would have been if they were allowed to fail. What I will say is that I would make it impossible for any company to grow to a size where they are TBTF, so there would never be any question about letting even the biggest company fail. They should all be allowed to fail.
The bailout of banks in the early 90's after loans to 3rd world countries went bad. The bailout of banks lending to LTCM when LTCM leveraged bets went bad. The bailout of banks lending to tech companies after the tech bubble burst. Just to name a few in the decade immediately preceding the housing bubble.
How did that work out for Lehman? Bear Stearns? Or IndyBank? The whole moral hazard argument just doesn't fly with me. The banks lost HUGE when the bubble burst.
Basically your saying it's moral hazard because the government allowed the banks to lose 90% of their assets, but saved them from losing 100% by LOANING me money that they will have to pay back with interest. Wow--that kind of guarantee would certainly persuade me to make riskier loans. My downside is limited to 90% loss + loans for the last 10% loss.
tatupu70
2014 Feb 3, 8:51pm
CRA was mandating the kind of lending that not even the GSE would accept until the very end. Then near the very end, even the GSE's were pressured by politicians into becoming the dumping ground for the bad loans. GSE's are still underwriting bad loans with parameters predicting high default rate to this day!
Actually, according to some sources, CRA loans failed at a rate lower than the average loan after the bubble burst. So CRA actualy lessened the impact.
Yes, GSEs got into the game late like you say above. They had a mandate to loan money and they couldn't because private industry was giving away money with no standards. They adjusted so they could keep up.
tatupu70
2014 Feb 3, 8:52pm
The suspension of accounting rules is causing the bubble right now!
Where is there a bubble now? Certainly not nationwide.
tatupu70
2014 Feb 3, 8:54pm
The assumption in your statement was of course that too little of the CORRECT KIND of government intervention
Yes, I think that is obvious.Reality says
The fact of the matter was that there was plenty government intervention: the WRONG KIND. I proceeded to show you two blatant examples of WRONG KIND of government intervention. It's a folly to assume that the government officials would know what the CORRECT KIND of government intervention in the market is before consequences are known. They are far more likely to make the WRONG KIND of interventions.
No, actually CRA was a good kind as I just told you. CRA loans did NOT cause nor even contribute to the bubble.
As to whether government knows the CORRECT KIND of intervention--it depends on who you elect. The people I vote for know the correct types of regulation--I suspect the same cannot be said of you.
Were you against bailing out AIG? Were you against bailing out GM? Were you against bailing out Citi? Were you against bailout BoA? There are not 40,000 large corporations like those in the whole world for you to make that nonsense 99.99% claim. You are just for the bailing out of the top 0.01% at the expense of the other 99.99%.
I don't know--I wasn't close enough to the situation at that time to know what the consequences would have been if they were allowed to fail. What I will say is that I would make it impossible for any company to grow to a size where they are TBTF, so there would never be any question about letting even the biggest company fail. They should all be allowed to fail.
Thank you for dodging the question. The question was not what you'd prefer if you were the creator of the universe from the beginning, but were you against the bailing out of AIG? Were you against the bailing out of GM? Were you against the bailing out of the big banks? No, you were advocating/apologizing for the bailing out of every single one of them!
If you want the TBTF to shrink in size, the simplest solution is STOP THE BAILOUTS. As soon as the bailouts stop, there would be market incentive to break up the unwieldy TBTF. Right now, it is the faithfulness of idiots in the myth of TBTF that is keeping the TBTF as big as TBTF.
prodigy
2014 Feb 3, 9:56pm
He with sick avatar should not hurl pebbles.
jesus! this blog is a useless toilet of nonsense and idiots now
i will not donate money again to patrick.
zionists and truther bullshit doesnt get u banned? FUK U PATRICK!
when did I ever state that I'm in favor of forciby keeping undeserving businesses in business? I most definitely am not. I hated the bailouts. Or more appropriately--I hated that the bailouts were necessary.
One bad assumption will surely gimmie your whole (faulty) premise. The bailouts were not necessary, so now how do you rationalize them.
tatupu70
2014 Feb 3, 10:05pm
Thank you for dodging the question. The question was not what you'd prefer if you were the creator of the universe from the beginning, but were you against the bailing out of AIG? Were you against the bailing out of GM? Were you against the bailing out of the big banks? No, you were advocating/apologizing for the bailing out of every single one of them!
You don't read very well, do you? Let me repost my direct answer.
I don't know--I wasn't close enough to the situation at that time to know what the consequences would have been if they were allowed to fail.
If you want the TBTF to shrink in size, the simplest solution is STOP THE BAILOUTS. As soon as the bailouts stop, there would be market incentive to break up the unwieldy TBTF. Right now, it is the faithfulness of idiots in the myth of TBTF that is keeping the TBTF as big as TBTF.
That is just ridiculous. Bailouts have nothing to do with the incentive for banks to branch out into other areas of finance.
tatupu70
2014 Feb 3, 10:06pm
The bailouts were not necessary, so now how do you rationalize them.
I'm assuming you are writing that to me. And my answer is--how the hell do you know if they were necessary??
The bailout of banks in the early 90's after loans to 3rd world countries went bad. The bailout of banks lending to LTCM when LTCM leveraged bets went bad. The bailout of banks lending to tech companies after the tech bubble burst. Just to name a few in the decade immediately preceding the housing bubble.
How did that work out for Lehman? Bear Stearns? Or IndyBank? The whole moral hazard argument just doesn't fly with me. The banks lost HUGE when the bubble burst.
It worked out very well for the financial engineers at Lehman, Bear and IndyBank: they went on working for different banks that were "bailed out" and reaped huge bonuses at taxpayer expense. "Banks" don't make decisions; Banksters do!
Basically your saying it's moral hazard because the government allowed the banks to lose 90% of their assets, but saved them from losing 100% by LOANING me money that they will have to pay back with interest. Wow--that kind of guarantee would certainly persuade me to make riskier loans. My downside is limited to 90% loss + loans for the last 10% loss.
No. Your thick skull is still not wrapping around how "bailouts" worked:
1. Neither Goldman nor AIG had $80 Billion cash asset sitting around. When they entered a $80 billion bet, there was 100% certainty that one of them would lose the bet, yet in the absence of government bailouts, that would be a non-enforceable contract. Yet, with government bailouts, the taxpayers are forced to pay the two of them $80 Billion! It doesn't really matter which one of them gets bailed out and which employees work for which company. It's as if the two of us bet $100 Million on the next coin flip when each one of us is worth only $1Mil. With government bailout to fulfill the contract, it is a guarantee that the two of us will make $98Million from the fraud even if one of us will be nominally cleaned out; we can split the $98Mil regardless who loses the $1Mil nominally.
2. With Indymac, the fraud is in pre-selling the bonuses. The bank employees loaned depositors' money to uncreditworthy borrowers (essentially throwing the money out of the window), then collected bonuses on the loans generated / money thrown away. Any wonder why the American work force has lost work ethics but pine for the next get rich quick scheme?
Actually, according to some sources, CRA loans failed at a rate lower than the average loan after the bubble burst. So CRA actualy lessened the impact.
Your "some sources" are utterly delusional. Just look at the value collapse in the sub-optimal neighborhoods vs. the better neighborhoods. One way to arrive at the delusional conclusion you cite is refuse to recognize losses in the bad neighborhoods as the collateral assets have collapsed so far below water, whereas foreclosing in better ones in order to capture remaining equity.
Yes, GSEs got into the game late like you say above. They had a mandate to loan money and they couldn't because private industry was giving away money with no standards. They adjusted so they could keep up.
There is no "private industry" in mortgage lending, except for "hard money" loans. The FDIC insured banks, like IndyMac, had employees in the business of throwing money out of the window and collect bonuses based on how much money they threw away, then have the taxpayers to pay for the eventual institutional losses.
The suspension of accounting rules is causing the bubble right now!
Where is there a bubble now? Certainly not nationwide.
LOL. Do you not see the bubble in bank stocks? And what do you think is the consequence of that bubble? Not nationwide?
The assumption in your statement was of course that too little of the CORRECT KIND of government intervention
Yes, I think that is obvious.
Yet, facts and history repeatedly show that government officials (monopolists and nexus of monopolies) are far more prone to make the WRONG KIND of interventions. Do you still wish to stick by your position of advocating for more interventions?
The bailouts were not necessary, so now how do you rationalize them.
I'm assuming you are writing that to me. And my answer is--how the hell do you know if they were necessary??
I guess it depends on what your definition of necessary is,,,,
You are the one that stated that they were necessary, the onus is on you to prove your statement,,,
Mind blown
You claim they were necessary. I reply that is false, and you reply by asking me how the hell could I know that they were not necessary?
How could you know that they were necessary? Because warren buffet said so?
No, actually CRA was a good kind as I just told you. CRA loans did NOT cause nor even contribute to the bubble.
Are you kidding? Did you drink Martini for breakfast? The historically red-lined areas had the greatest bubble and bust during the real estate bubble-bust, often times tripling value between 2003 and 2007 then collapsing back. Whether the banks recognize those bad loans at any given point in time is highly dependent on how the banks cook books in order to hide their insolvency. For example, Wachovia kept bad loans as loans accruing theoretical interest payment for years.
As to whether government knows the CORRECT KIND of intervention--it depends on who you elect. The people I vote for know the correct types of regulation--I suspect the same cannot be said of you.
So who did you vote for and elect? Let's have the list and burst your own personal bubble. Unless we are talking about someone like Ron Paul, the overwhelming majority sitting in Congress and White House either did not know the correct type of regulations (which is hardly any, except on regulations on government officials themselves) or deliberately make the bad choices.
tatupu70
2014 Feb 3, 10:28pm
It worked out very well for the financial engineers at Lehman, Bear and IndyBank: they went on working for different banks that were "bailed out" and reaped huge bonuses at taxpayer expense. "Banks" don't make decisions; Banksters do!
We're not talking about the financial engineers--we're talking about banks as entities and the owners of such. If you want to talk about the incentives that those owners gave to their employees--that's a different issue.
Neither Goldman nor AIG had $80 Billion cash asset sitting around. When they entered a $80 billion bet, there was 100% certainty that one of them would lose the bet, yet in the absence of government bailouts, that would be a non-enforceable contract. Yet, with government bailouts, the taxpayers are forced to pay the two of them $80 Billion! It doesn't really matter which one of them gets bailed out and which employees work for which company. It's as if the two of us bet $100 Million on the next coin flip when each one of us is worth only $1Mil. With government bailout to fulfill the contract, it is a guarantee that the two of us will make $98Million from the fraud even if one of us will be nominally cleaned out; we can split the $98Mil regardless who loses the $1Mil nominally.
What the hell are you talking about--they didn't bet $80MM on the Super Bowl. That is not at all how it worked. The large banks took out derivatives as insurance to cover themselves in case the housing market fell. And AIG sold them. There was no guarantee that one side would lose--if housing stayed steady or rose, everyone is happy.
2. With Indymac, the fraud is in pre-selling the bonuses. The bank employees loaned depositors' money to uncreditworthy borrowers (essentially throwing the money out of the window), then collected bonuses on the loans generated / money thrown away. Any wonder why the American work force has lost work ethics but pine for the next get rich quick scheme?
No shit. I know how it works. But--where's the bailout?? I thought precedent was set a decade earlier, right? Didn't the owners of IndyMac "know" that they would get bailed out??
tatupu70
2014 Feb 3, 10:29pm
You are the one that stated that they were necessary, the onus is on you to prove your statement,,,
lol--I'm the only one? You must not get out much.
tatupu70
2014 Feb 3, 10:32pm
Mind blown
You claim they were necessary. I reply that is false, and you reply by asking me how the hell could I know that they were not necessary?
How could you know that they were necessary? Because warren buffet said so?
In truth, I say that I don't know if they were necessary. I wasn't close enough to the situation (and neither were you).
Here's what I'll say--there are a LOT of unknowns in a situation like that. Nobody can guess with 100% certainty how things will unfold. So, I'll ask you. If there's a 50% chance that the financial system melts down, do you do the bailouts? How about 25%? 10%? What is an acceptable risk to take when the consequence is a complete financial meltdown?
Thank you for dodging the question. The question was not what you'd prefer if you were the creator of the universe from the beginning, but were you against the bailing out of AIG? Were you against the bailing out of GM? Were you against the bailing out of the big banks? No, you were advocating/apologizing for the bailing out of every single one of them!
You don't read very well, do you? Let me repost my direct answer.
I don't know--I wasn't close enough to the situation at that time to know what the consequences would have been if they were allowed to fail.
You spent days advocating the bailouts of big banks and GM a few years ago. Somehow your now admitted ignorance did not prevent you from debating people who advocated against bailouts. Are you sure you know what the correct type of government intervention is? much less which politicians know ?
tatupu70
2014 Feb 3, 10:33pm
The historically red-lined areas had the greatest bubble and bust during the real estate bubble-bust, often times tripling value between 2003 and 2007 then collapsing back.
lol--you're full of shit, like normal.
You are the one that stated that they were necessary, the onus is on you to prove your statement,,,
lol--I'm the only one? You must not get out much.
So your proof is that there is a consensus that it was necessary?
Y'all love some consensus science. As a contrarian, I'm always open to the possibility that the majority got it wrong
It worked out very well for the financial engineers at Lehman, Bear and IndyBank: they went on working for different banks that were "bailed out" and reaped huge bonuses at taxpayer expense. "Banks" don't make decisions; Banksters do!
We're not talking about the financial engineers--we're talking about banks as entities and the owners of such. If you want to talk about the incentives that those owners gave to their employees--that's a different issue.
Aha, that's where the real difference between Austrians vs. the blind faith-based crowd emerge: Do banks think, talk, eat or even do anything without the banksters?
Only Individuals are capable of actions. All the "entities" and "instutions" are mind-fucks for the gullible. Incentives for the individuals are what influence actions. "Entities" and "Institutions" are helplessly blind, dumb and lame . . . because they are imaginative entities when they are not natural persons.
The historically red-lined areas had the greatest bubble and bust during the real estate bubble-bust, often times tripling value between 2003 and 2007 then collapsing back.
lol--you're full of shit, like normal.
That would be a good description of yourself. You are obviously clueless. The Beta/volatility in sub-optimal neighborhoods are much greater than the good neighborhoods.
Here's what I'll say--there are a LOT of unknowns in a situation like that. Nobody can guess with 100% certainty how things will unfold. So, I'll ask you. If there's a 50% chance that the financial system melts down, do you do the bailouts? How about 25%? 10%? What is an acceptable risk to take when the consequence is a complete financial meltdown?
What the fuck is "a complete financial meltdown"? Does the sun the fail to rise? Do crops all die in the field when the otherwise happy corn stalks hear it? Do people march off into the ocean like Lemmings like you? You are such a blind faithful in the banking religion of apocolypse. The bailouts are the financial suicide for the society as a whole . . . as shown to you in spades over the past half decade.
Mind blown
You claim they were necessary. I reply that is false, and you reply by asking me how the hell could I know that they were not necessary?
How could you know that they were necessary? Because warren buffet said so?
In truth, I say that I don't know if they were necessary. I wasn't close
enough to the situation (and neither were you).Here's what I'll say--there are a LOT of unknowns in a situation like that. Nobody can guess with 100% certainty how things will unfold. So, I'll ask you. If there's a 50% chance that the financial system melts down, do you do the bailouts? How about 25%? 10%? What is an acceptable risk to take when the consequence is a complete financial meltdown?
Actions have consequences. Whatever probability your predictive models would have spit out, would have been an acceptable amount of risk, to have passed on the bailouts. You must not get out much. Step outside and take a look at the world around you. This is a result of the bailouts
tatupu70
2014 Feb 3, 10:49pm
So your proof is that there is a consensus that it was necessary?
Y'all love some consensus science. As a contrarian, I'm always open to the possibility that the majority got it wrong
And I am wide open to that possibility as well. Let's look back and learn from the mistakes of the "majority". But let's not pretend that it's KNOWN that the bailouts weren't necessary.
tatupu70
2014 Feb 3, 10:51pm
Actions have consequences. Whatever probability your predictive models would have spit out, would have been an acceptable amount of risk, to have passed on the bailouts. You must not get out much. Step outside and take a look at the world around you. This is a result of the bailouts
No, I do. I also know what the world could have looked like, however, in the absence of bailouts.
What the hell are you talking about--they didn't bet $80MM on the Super Bowl. That is not at all how it worked. The large banks took out derivatives as insurance to cover themselves in case the housing market fell. And AIG sold them. There was no guarantee that one side would lose--if housing stayed steady or rose, everyone is happy.
You don't understand what derivatives are, do you? For every dollar that one party wins/loses in a derivative contract, there is an exact same amount lose/win on the part of the counter-party. The contracts that GS took out were not protective derivatives because they did not have that much exposure to protect to begin with. In fact, at one point, there were more derivative contracts betting against subprime lending than total subprime lending itself! It would be like if I took out 10 "insurance policies" each insuring the whole value against your house, then started hiring arsonists.
tatupu70
2014 Feb 3, 10:52pm
Incentives for the individuals are what influence actions. "Entities" and "Institutions" are helplessly blind, dumb and lame . . . because they are imaginative entities when they are not natural persons.
Exactly. And incentives for individuals are set by the bank owners. And the free market. If they favor short terms gains over long term health--like at IndyMac--that's the free market at work.
Incentives for the individuals are what influence actions. "Entities" and "Institutions" are helplessly blind, dumb and lame . . . because they are imaginative entities when they are not natural persons.
Exactly. And incentives for individuals are set by the bank owners. And the free market. If they favor short terms gains over long term health--like at IndyMac--that's the free market at work.
No it is not. IndyMac was subsidiary of Countrywide, and mostly owned by the same gang of crooks. What they counted on was massive executive pay and short-term payouts at the expense of eventual closing down and bailout by FDIC.
So your proof is that there is a consensus that it was necessary?
Y'all love some consensus science. As a contrarian, I'm always open to the possibility that the majority got it wrong
And I am wide open to that possibility as well. Let's look back and learn from the mistakes of the "majority". But let's not pretend that it's KNOWN that the bailouts weren't necessary.
Our entire exchange occurred this morning because you claimed that the bailouts were necessary. I'm glad to see that you've retracted that false statement. We don't want to go on pretending that we know that the bailouts were necessary
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