patrick.net

Call it Crazy says

The report from RealtyTrac last week proves beyond the shadow of a doubt the supposed housing market recovery is a complete and utter fraud. The corporate mainstream media did their usual spin job on the report by focusing on the fact foreclosure starts in 2013 were the lowest since 2007.

The talking heads reading their teleprompter propaganda machines failed to mention that distressed sales (short sales & foreclosure sales) rose to a three year high of 16.2% of all U.S. residential sales, up from 14.5% in 2012.

The economy has been supposedly advancing for over four years and sales of distressed homes are at 16.2% and rising. The bubble headed bimbos on CNBC don’t find it worthwhile to mention that prior to 2007 the normal percentage of distressed home sales was less than 3%.

The problem is how many people believe the propaganda. The thinking minority cannot help them; the ignorant majority only believe what thet are fed from their TV.

control point says

indigenous says

The banks are lending the money back to the FED?

They were buying treasuries shortly after the meltdown. This is what he was referring to.

So the money went to finance government debt. The idea that it was to stimulate the economy was a myth?

indigenous says

So the money went to finance government debt. The idea that it was to
stimulate the economy was a myth?

Its called a liquidity trap. Fear caused the banks flight to safety. The FED loaned the money without requirements of what the banks would do with it.

They took essentially an arbitrage opportunity.

Single income family below 100K in SFBA is likely to be shut out of the housing market all together. Most likely, it will take close to 130K to have a realistic shot. SFBA is not the type of place where on can lead a 1950's lifestyle where 1 person works and support a spouse with 2 kids on one salary while carrying the entire mortgage on their own. If that's the lifestyle that one desires around here, then 150K is a minimum and perhaps closer to 200K.

hrhjuliet says

Some do, but the majority don't. The biggest spenders I know, especially on
frivolous entertainment and eating out are over 55.

Sure, 55+ spends money on discretionary items, but it could be argued that they are in better position to do that if they already own a home and have amassed greater savings in general vs a 20s/30s something who is still renting and have not saved the requisite down payment amount. There's a time and place for everything in this world.

CaptainShuddup says

Yeah Lucky you! But what about those who were retiring in 2007, and spite all of their pleas, couldn't get a Mulligan?

Who's to say there wont be repeat of 2007, right as you're being fitted for that Gold watch?

How many people on the verge of retirement have all their assets in high risk investments, or worse have leveraged themselves into high risk investments?

control point says

indigenous says

So the money went to finance government debt. The idea that it was to

stimulate the economy was a myth?

Its called a liquidity trap. Fear caused the banks flight to safety. The FED loaned the money without requirements of what the banks would do with it.

They took essentially an arbitrage opportunity.

Am I the only one who heard this was intended to stimulate the economy?

Nice to know the poor bankers were not only saved from loosing their bonuses but also able to take advantage of the arbitrage.

Call it Crazy says

New Renter says

How many people on the verge of retirement have all their assets in high risk investments, or worse have leveraged themselves into high risk investments?

Does cash out refi's and HELOCs count??

Yes.

hrhjuliet says

Just this very morning I got news that a close friend if mine bought a house
for 18 times her income

Damn, what was I thinking. My house only cost about 2.25 times my annual income - well, that's what comes from refusing to think insane.

hrhjuliet says

The problem is how many people believe the propaganda. The thinking minority
cannot help them; the ignorant majority only believe what thet are fed from
their TV.

I could only LIKE this comment. I wish I could LOVE it or GUSH over it. Man this is tooooo true.

dublin hillz says

Single income family below 100K in SFBA is likely to be shut out of the housing market all together. Most likely, it will take close to 130K to have a realistic shot. SFBA is not the type of place where on can lead a 1950's lifestyle where 1 person works and support a spouse with 2 kids on one salary while carrying the entire mortgage on their own. If that's the lifestyle that one desires around here, then 150K is a minimum and perhaps closer to 200K.

That assumes said young family does not inheret a house or enough money to pay off enough of the mortgage to bring the payments within a comfortable single income level.

bgamall4 says

Why do I get voted down for saying we are in a mortgage depression? We are in a mortgage depression. http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2012/02/current-housing-bust-much-worse-than-great-depression/

All the dislikes are from the people hoping to retire by selling their 2 bedroom shack for a cool 1 million sheets of funny paper.

WOW! The UNtrustworthy are certainly in control of what information is apparent to the people!

Say hey! This was in the Wall Street Journal on March 30, 1999. Note "... how much it will buy."

Holy cow/interesting/compelling ...!

And where is it up to date??? Right here ... see the first chart shown in this thread.
Recent Dow day is Tuesday, February 4, 2014 __ Level is 99.0

WOW! It is hideous that this is hidden! Is there any such "Homes, Inflation Adjusted"? Yes! This was in the New York Times on August 27, 2006:

And up to date (by me) is here:
http://patrick.net/?p=1219038&c=999083#comment-999083

WOW! The UNtrustworthy are certainly in control of what information is apparent to the people!

And http://patrick.net/?p=1230886

dublin hillz says

1. They can't save for downpayment

2. Even when they can theoretically save for downpayment, they choose to spend money on entertainment/going out and as a result don't save.

3. Student loan death pledge ain't helping matters.

4. Boomers are working longer which is causing ripple effect of younger generation not having the previous access to the prime paying jobs.

You're missing the key point which is that housing prices have risen faster than wages for several decades. As it happened, most people who bought a house during that time saw their equity increase and therefore were able to upgrade to more expensive homes. That's especially true for boomers.

The obvious flaw in this picture is that new entrants didn't profit from the way up, but have to pay the full price upfront (i.e. the profits of their elders). They have to pay for everyone that came before them. It's no surprise then that they are priced out, decide to live in their parents's basements - or in their cars.

If you own a house and profited these past few years, the question for you is: why do you hate young people?

The way this system works is very immoral.

Heraclitusstudent says

They have to pay for everyone that came before them.

One solution to this is to buy new construction directly from a builder if possible. That way a buyer does not have to feel as though they are being taken to the cleaners by a boomer.

dublin hillz says

One solution to this is to buy new construction directly from a builder if
possible.

LOL, like they wouldn't, or don't pocket the chunk of cash that would've went to the real estate agent/broker.

Call it Crazy says

Instead of having diarrhea of the keyboard, why don't you disprove the DATA
in the story with your own charts and facts!!

Here, I'll even help you. You can start with the conspiracy site
RealtyTrac:

Where do I begin with your source and or the daily hysterical rants of the end times or how any positive signs of movement in the housing sector is somehow fake or the numbers are lies, distorted, under-reported, etc., etc.,...............And then you want to use realytrac as your source of all-inclusive data, that's an intenet only source of info that's derived from publicly sourced sites, or more likely from public sources that HAVE a website.

Sorry if I don't share the same distorted views of reality. But, by any and all means, put all the assets and money of YOURS at stake based upon the info from that site.

bgamall4 says

I never would have guessed that. But I guess the shirts have to go somewhere.

The meme is called the African Success Kid and you can search the internet for it:

Whole bunch of them here:
http://molempire.com/2011/11/29/internet-meme-third-world-success/

It's all Obama's fault!!!

Call it Crazy says

mmmarvel says

hrhjuliet says

Just this very morning I got news that a close friend if mine bought a house

for 18 times her income

Damn, what was I thinking. My house only cost about 2.25 times my annual income - well, that's what comes from refusing to think insane.

Crap, I'm only at 2.2 times..... We must be doing something wrong here....

I'm going back to my mortgage company and demanding I want approval for 20 times my income.... It just isn't fair!!!

This is America, after all!!

They should be able to set you up with a Heloc for 20X your income.

RentingForHalfTheCost says

All the dislikes are from the people hoping to retire by selling their 2 bedroom shack for a cool 1 million sheets of funny paper.

Not true, I refuse to sell until the offers top $3 million; hey I made the first mistake of only buying 2.25 times my annual income, I won't make two mistakes in a row.

Call it Crazy says

Then show us some REAL numbers that dispute the ones in the OP...

This is the third time I've asked you and all that you have provided is more
diarrhea of the keyboard....

Stop bloviating and provide facts that dispute the ones in the article!!

Why, I'm not the one pushing some sort of ideological based narrative that's good, bad, or the other. Besides, it's irrelevant to anybody's area just as your's is to mine. It's pointless, not to mention the fact that the weather is pretty extreme and abnormal to say the least, and that along with the time of the year makes the whole issue moot. I think the weather has hindered movement more than anything, IF there's even a lack of movement to begin with.

I follow the local market, although not on a daily basis(why?) or even a weekly basis(again, why?)and things just aren't as dire as TBP implies.

The onus is not on me anyway.*

*I'll get right on it about the same time that you supply the data on natural gas versus propane usage/utiliztion rates in New Jersey. LOL

APOCALYPSEFUCKisShostikovitch says

Their only purpose is to pay 100x what boomers paid for their shacks so they can live Caligulan lifestyles on their slave ranches in Central America.

Ugh!, the very idea of ANY retiree living a Caligulan lifestyle, UGH!

OH GOD, make these visions go away!!!

Call it Crazy says

upisdown
says

It's pointless, not to mention the fact that the weather is pretty extreme
and abnormal to say the least

Wow, where was the weather reference posted any place in the original
article??

AGAIN, local relevance over some national level BS that you allude to. Don't think for 1 minute that weather hasn't played a factor in MANY things this winter(of which it is snowing again and as soon as there's roughly 1" of accumulation, you're back to arguing with yourself). Maybe not in 'the Bay area', but it sure as hell has in the Midwest.

Call it Crazy says

Wow, where was the weather reference posted any place in the original article??

No, just a bunch of baseless BS. Here, I'll give you an example:

Call it Crazy says

WARPED, DISTORTED, MANIPULATED, FLIPPED HOUSING MARKET

and another huge stinker:

Call it Crazy says

The report from RealtyTrac last week proves beyond the shadow of a doubt the
supposed housing market recovery is a complete and utter fraud.

It's time for you to back up your usual BS and prove both of those sentences true that YOU wrote and posted. Stop changing the subject, using distraction as a way to cover for your lack of knowledge and incompetence, and prove beyond a doubt those two statements that you made, to be true. Again, the onus IS NOT on me, it's you who posted the OP and made the claims.

Somehow I don't think that'll ever happen.

Call it Crazy says

You're back talking about snow, (how much snow did the country have last
summer?) when the original article above was about the NATIONAL housing market
LAST YEAR

LOL, I guess that proves how stupid that I think your rant AND source are, I didn't even bother to read the link.

Seriously, why bother when the author is about as bright as what I think you are, and that's not saying much. Not to mention the f-n irrelevance of LAST YEAR'S market to NOW.

bubblesitter says

Call it Crazy says

I guess that depends where the bottom is....

Clearly he does not understand which is the correct bottom out of multiple bottoms.

or maybe it's you who has difficulty grasping the basic rule of supply and demand

Heraclitusstudent says

You're missing the key point which is that housing prices have risen faster than wages for several decades. As it happened, most people who bought a house during that time saw their equity increase and therefore were able to upgrade to more expensive homes. That's especially true for boomers.

The obvious flaw in this picture is that new entrants didn't profit from the way up, but have to pay the full price upfront (i.e. the profits of their elders). They have to pay for everyone that came before them. It's no surprise then that they are priced out, decide to live in their parents's basements - or in their cars.

If you own a house and profited these past few years, the question for you is: why do you hate young people?

The way this system works is very immoral.

Exactly.

errc says

Our entire exchange occurred this morning because you claimed that the bailouts were necessary. I'm glad to see that you've retracted that false statement. We don't want to go on pretending that we know that the bailouts were necessary

You read about as well as Reality. My position is now, and always has been, that nobody can know whether the bailouts were necessary. Because it's IMPOSSIBLE to know.

Given that, and that the consequences of no bailouts was so dire, I think it's very naive of you guys to pretend that the bailouts were a horrible idea and that things would have been fine without them.

tatupu70 says

errc says

Our entire exchange occurred this morning because you claimed that the bailouts were necessary. I'm glad to see that you've retracted that false statement. We don't want to go on pretending that we know that the bailouts were necessary

You read about as well as Reality. My position is now, and always has been, that nobody can know whether the bailouts were necessary. Because it's IMPOSSIBLE to know.

Given that, and that the consequences of no bailouts was so dire, I think it's very naive of you guys to pretend that the bailouts were a horrible idea and that things would have been fine without them.

Ok, I don't get you. You're screaming for a fix in inequality but you also believe that banks are part of the problem to inequality. BUT you support the government bailout of the banks?

I mean wtf is it? Who is your enemy? If you don't like what the Banks and Wall Street are doing to our lives why the hell would you favor a government bailout? So we could continue this false economic prosperity which is really enslavement by the government and wall street?

I don't get you.

Yeah things wouldn't of been fine without the bailouts initially but the only way to get out of this mess would of let the banking system collapse, have the government get out of the way. But no here we are still drinking the poisoned well thanks to big brother helping out his mafia buddies, all because we're too scared to face our consequences by letting the banks fail.

And yet you scream for more equality but failed to realize that the government has already made their bed with wall street and the banks. Do you really think they're going to help you or us?

spydah_hh says

I mean wtf is it? Who is your enemy? If you don't like what the Banks and Wall Street are doing to our lives why the hell would you favor a government bailout?

I don't get how you can't understand my position?!? It's not that difficult. I am not a fan of banks and Wall St. I think probably 95% of what they do is non-value added.

But I'm not a fan of cutting of one's nose to spite his face. And I strongly disagree that things would magically fix themselves after a short depression. The free market is not always self correcting. Especially not in a few years.

If someone could guarantee me that letting the banks all fail would have led to a couple years of recession and nothing else--then I'm all in. Screw them. Let them all fail. I'm just not naive enough to believe that nonsense.

spydah_hh says

And yet you scream for more equality but failed to realize that the government has already made their bed with wall street and the banks. Do you really think they're going to help you or us?

It depends on who gets elected. If we get more people like Elizabeth Warren, then yes. If we get Mitt Romney or Paul Ryan--then no.

Government is made up of people. Elect the right ones and things get better. Elect the wrong ones and things get worse.

What exactly do you fear would have happened had the govt not bailed out all the bad actors?

errc says

What exactly do you fear would have happened had the govt not bailed out all the bad actors?

Another Great Depression. 25% official unemployment. You get the picture.

GE is on record saying they were days away from not being able to make payroll.

errc says

What exactly do you fear would have happened had the govt not bailed out all the bad actors?

Complete financial collapse. All large financial institutions failing. Banks, Insurance companies, Health care providers, 10's of millions more unemployed.

And that would have all happened in the first week..........

Spoken like a man who gained his PhD at 22.

Mark D says

or maybe it's you who has difficulty grasping the basic rule of supply and demand

Oh I see, now you are jumping on supply and demand. No more bottom talk?

Bigsby says

Spoken like a man who gained his PhD at 22.

Thanks. Appreciate the compliment more when it comes from a man who had trouble getting out of high school at 22.

indigenous says

Bullshit. Read this thread. Or remain in complete ignorance

I read it. We do not know how things would have gone with no intervention. You have your theory, and I have my theory. I believe that you are completely wrong.

RentingForHalfTheCost says

Bigsby says

Spoken like a man who gained his PhD at 22.

Thanks. Appreciate the compliment more when it comes from a man who had trouble getting out of high school at 22.

You're welcome. When are you going to graduate from your high school?