patrick.net

lostand confused says

Russia has very little debt, huge surplus and still growing at close to 4-5% a year.

Russian companies are up to their ears in debt to foreign banks. Russia's exports are mostly oil and gas (~60%). They import pretty much everything else: food (for example up to 80% of beef is imported), pharmaceuticals, oil&gas equipment, textile&footwear, cars&trucks and parts, farm equipment and parts, aircraft and parts, etc. If slapped with real sanctions (ban on oil and gas exports, banking restrictions, ban on sensitive technology imports) Russia will fold like a cheap suit in 2-3 years, or even faster. Putin's popularity won't survive a drop in quality of life for average Russian. The fucker is bluffing.

Straw Man says

Russian companies are up to their ears in debt to foreign banks. Russia's
exports are mostly oil and gas (~60%). They import pretty much everything else:
food (for example up to 80% of beef is imported), pharmaceuticals, oil&gas
equipment, textile&footwear, cars&trucks and parts, farm equipment and
parts, aircraft and parts, etc. If slapped with real sanctions (ban on oil and
gas exports, banking restrictions, ban on sensitive technology imports) Russia
will fold like a cheap suit in 2-3 years, or even faster. Putin's popularity
won't survive a drop in quality of life for average Russian. The fucker is
bluffing.

America throws more people in jail than any nation on earth. maybe we need some of that freedom they are selling everywhere. Oh wait , they will probably bomb us in the name of freedom.

corntrollio says

Do you really think 45,000 would incapacitate people on the plane? I doubt depressurization would be a problem at that altitude, and more mundane concerns like thrust and stall would come into play (i.e. that the airplane might not be able to achieve or maintain that altitude at close to full load -- remember that this is a big loaded plane).

Former aerospace engineer, what you refer to is the flight envelope. It's a design chart. Yes the higher you go, the harder things get. As my Boomer BIL used to say though "crush depth is just a marking on the gauge". You don't know the precise limits of a particular airplane and loading until you hit the edge of them.

The 777 I think has Flight Envelope Protection which attempts to prevent the pilot from issuing commands that will get it to the edge of it's design envelope. So there's that.

However if you manage to depressurize the cabin you could kill everyone on board and not have to worry about them any more. Above 25,000 feet everyone without oxygen would be dead in minutes.

http://www.theairlinepilots.com/medical/decompressionandhypoxia.htm

Another possibility is some catastrophe took place, and the pilot(s) were so incapacitated by hypoxia that they were barely conscious and unable to effectively save themselves. Punch in a few commands to turn the plane, doze off.... wake up! do something more.... doze off again....

Ends like Helios 522:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Helios_Airways_Flight_522

Feinstein used to be so stunning years ago,

I guess she is proof that...

..up till 40 you get the face your born with; after 40 you get the face you deserve!

APOCALYPSEFUCKisShostikovitch says

Flight 370 Theories

I have a theory.

http://www.youtube.com/embed/wHP0q7-EIL0

zzyzzx says

jojo says

Those people in the pic have incredibly clean clothes (bright whites!) for having just been a plane crash. And the guy still has his tie on. Amazing!

There were a lot more questionable things in that show, like how the fat guy can remain fat, etc.

http://www.youtube.com/embed/G-DShnvNNv0

Anyone check North Korea for it yet?

Wasn't there an AD coming out on the B777. Something about catastrophic airframe failure at or near the radom? Requiring inspections on all 777's? Due out April 9th?

An airframe failure would have rapidly depressurized the cabin and . . . Also causing massive electrical failures in the cockpit from 500 mph winds.

zzyzzx says

Anyone check North Korea for it yet?

NK can't have many airfields capable of handling a plane as large as a 777. Of those I'm sure we've had them under surveillance for some time.

bob2356 says

Google doesn't work on your browser? It took me less than 2 minutes to come up with the numbers. Or are you saying you refuse to believe anything that doesn't agree with your preconceived xenophobic philosophy.

If it's on internet it doesn't mean it's true.

FortWayne says

If it's on internet it doesn't mean it's true.

Willful ignorance is still ignorance. We're talking about something factual here that's not open to interpretation.

mark.anania1 says

Wasn't there an AD coming out on the B777. Something about catastrophic airframe failure at or near the radom? Requiring inspections on all 777's? Due out April 9th?

I'm pretty sure that bulletin doesn't apply to this plane. The bulletin is about a specific satellite antenna that may result in corrosion, and this plane doesn't have that antenna.

From California home sales to bonds?

jojo says

It IS indirectly pegged to the 10year. Gsr is correct.

Please tell me what school gave you a degree in finance. I don't believe it.

jojo says

It IS indirectly pegged to the 10year. Gsr is correct.

Holy crap.

If it is pegged, then explain why this is not a straight line:

http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/graph/?g=tqt&dbeta=1

Maybe you don't know the definition of the word "pegged."

jojo says

It IS indirectly pegged to the 10year. Gsr is correct

OK--please define exactly what "indirectly pegged" means.

jojo says

@bgamall

The honest answer is that no one knows. We have never in human history had a financial superstructure like this. My best guess is we experience something like Japan has for the last 20 years (we are already almost 10 years in and it seems similar to Japan after their crash in the early 90s). If a large bank fails and the trillions of dollars of derivatives, which net out to a far smaller value, become unhinged because a counter party collapses then we could see a depression.

@jojo Interesting. This does mirror the 1920s in many ways, also imperial France before the revolution. Thoughts on the above parallels?

tatupu70 says

The honest answer is that no one knows.

I think Tatupoo needs something he can relate to more in his day-to-day line of work. Poo, think of 'indirectly pegged' like if you mistakenly put the 'For Sale' sign in the backyard instead of the front yard. Sure, you are directly putting up the sign, but you have 'indirectly pegged' it in the wrong location.

RentingForHalfTheCost says

tatupu70 says

The honest answer is that no one knows.

I think Tatupoo needs something he can relate to more in his day-to-day line of work. Poo, think of 'indirectly pegged' like if you mistakenly put the 'For Sale' sign in the backyard instead of the front yard. Sure, you are directly putting up the sign, but you have 'indirectly pegged' it in the wrong location.

Please don't misquote me. That was jojo's post, not mine.

jojo says

tatupu70 says

OK--please define exactly what "indirectly pegged" means.

Read this:

jojo says

10-Year Treasury Note and Rate

http://useconomy.about.com/od/fiscalpolicydefinitions/p/10-Year-Treasury.htm

That doesn't answer my question. Can you not define the term that you used?

jojo says

and this:

How Bond Market Pricing Works

http://www.investopedia.com/articles/bonds/07/pricing_conventions.asp

Are you having trouble finding the definition? I would think that you could readily define it in your own words without having to link to anything.

jojo says

Figure it out yourself. I've already given you the links and all the info is there. I'm not your teacher.

So, in other words, you can't define your own terms. Because they are BS. Got it.

jojo says

I'm not going to waste my time explaining to you how the treasury yield curve works.

That's good. Becuase I didn't ask you how the treasury yield curve works. And that's because I already know.

I have a very specific question. What does "indirectly pegged" mean?

jojo says

Indirectly pegged means this:

"The 10-year Treasury note rate is the yield, or rate of return, you get for investing in this note. The rate is important because it is the benchmark rate that guides almost all other interest rates"

lol--are you kidding me? You have a degree in finance?

jojo says

Indirectly pegged means this:
"The 10-year Treasury note rate is the
yield, or rate of return, you get for investing in this note. The rate is
important because it is the benchmark rate that guides almost all other interest
rates"

"Indirectly pegged" = "guides almost all other interest rates." Got it.

While we are playing this game, from now on, when I say "Austrian,", I really mean "factually blind economically illiterate Fed cultist."

Just so we are clear.

tatupu70 says

You have a degree in finance?

"I have a degree in Finance" means "I got a C in algebra and Ron Paul really got me excited about Austrian economics, so I have been to mises.org."

jojo says

I can't help it if none of you understand how the treasury curve works

Now you are pissing me off, dipshit.

If you can explain to me the differnce between this:

http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/graph/?g=tqt&dbeta=1

Which is the exact relationship you are talking about - and is certainly not constant.

And this:

http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/graph/?g=tsc&dbeta=1

Which shows something that was ACTUALLY pegged from mid 1995 through 2004.

It has absolutely nothing to do with the yield curve.

There are many factors that affect corporate bond prices. Risk, alternative investment opportunities, time (the yield curve you talk about), and yes, the risk free rate (commonly accepted as the 10 year in general, but not for a 3 month corporate debt offering, as an example, why? Because the yield curve is not constant either.)

Something that is a "factor" in something else does not mean it is pegged, directly or indirectly. If something is Pegged it is a constant relationship, 1:1, it does not change. Corporate debt rates vs. the 10 year is a floating spread, as I have quite plainly shown.

jojo says

Hmmm.. that's funny because this phrase is used quite a bit. Just do a google search.

Here is an economics textbook that uses the phrase "indirectly pegged".

Macroeconomics: A Modern Approach

OK-I take it back. You can use that term in a comletely different vein that what you proposed. The text is saying that if you peg currency A to currency B which is pegged to gold, then, in effect, you indirectly pegged currency A to gold.

That's not what you are saying though

control point says

Indirectly pegged" = "guides almost all other interest rates." Got it.

While we are playing this game, from now on, when I say "Austrian,", I really mean "factually blind economically illiterate Fed cultist."

Just so we are clear.

This is about facts. It has nothing to do with economic policy. Stop fooling yourself.

>>Rates are low largely because corporate rates are pegged to the benchmark 10-year Treasury yield, which has dropped to around 2 percent from more than 3.5 percent in early 2011.

http://www.nytimes.com/2012/03/08/business/low-rates-entice-companies-to-borrow.html?pagewanted=all

http://marketrealist.com/2014/03/low-interest-rates-sparked-record-debt-issuance/
>>
n order to help the economy recover, the U.S. Federal Reserve has followed an accommodative monetary policy since 2008. This has included keeping the Fed funds rate between 0% and 0.25% and monthly bond purchases of longer-term Treasuries (TLT) and agency-backed securities (MBB), with the intention of keeping interest rates low, to spur growth in investments and GDP, creating jobs as well as helping Fed achieve its long-term inflation goal of 2%. However, the excess liquidity in the market may have had some unintended consequences.

Companies have taken advantage of low interest rates to refinance costlier debt, fund mergers and acquisitions, and increase returns for shareholders by increasing dividends and share-buybacks. The S& P 100 Buyback Index, which monitors 100 stocks with the highest buyback ratios, increased 45% in 2013, shadowing the performance of the S&P 500 Index (SPY), which increased by 28%.

Lower interest rates have led to record corporate bond issuances and fund flows in fixed income ETFs (BND).

There are many people on PatNet I'd rather not meet in person, particularly the ultra-conservative trolls. They scare me.

Dan8267 says

There are many people on PatNet I'd rather not meet in person, particularly the ultra-conservative trolls. They scare me.

Me too. Some of the peasants I can only imagine how below me it would be to associate with.

Should we invite REALTORs to the PatNet Convention?

What if they show up uninvited?

Robber Baron Elite Scum says

Should we invite REALTORs to the PatNet Convention?

What if they show up uninvited?

ApocalypseFuck will take care of them.

http://www.youtube.com/embed/AVQ8byG2mY8

Everybody, show up in wedding dresses made of Realtor pelts.

Here's another scenario.

One of the pilots kills the other, then inputs a course track that will take the plane out to sea until it runs out of fuel. Then kills himself.

It's nighttime, passengers are asleep. They wake up and wonder why they don't see land. Pound on the door, maybe even break in. Too late, out of fuel!

Chilling.

Reportedly, the turn was already programmed into the computer prior to takeoff, which is consistent with this accident theory.

gsr says

This is about facts. It has nothing to do with economic policy. Stop fooling
yourself.

>>Rates are low largely because corporate rates are pegged to the
benchmark 10-year Treasury yield, which has dropped to around 2 percent from
more than 3.5 percent in early 2011.

http://www.nytimes.com/2012/03/08/business/low-rates-entice-companies-to-borrow.html?pagewanted=all

This is one of the silliest arguments I have had on pnet, and that is saying something.

I have shown that corporate debt (and jojo even confirmed it with his related chart) clearly floats vs. the 10 year.

His argument that "pegged" means it can trade in a range, and as time increases, the range may increase as well, is ridiculous.

I could us this definition of "pegged" to argue that Unilever (UN) is pegged to the dollar, in a range of 36 to 43. After all, over the last year that is the range it has been trading in. Ah, but but someone would say, what about if you look back further? Well going back 3 years you have to increase the range to 32 to 43. No further: 5 years? Ok fine, 18 to 43. And so on and so on.

You could say anything is pegged to anything else, if you chose a time period small enough or a range large enough. AAPL is pegged to gold, the range is .01 ounces to .5 ounces per share.

It is silly.

And citing a NYT article where the author also incorrectly uses the term is hardly proof. As I said, the Yuan was pegged to the dollar for years - if you look at a chart of the exchange rate between the currencies, it is a straight line, from the time the peg was put on until it was removed about 7 years later.

jojo says

How To Read A Bond Quote:
"Bond Quotes Expressed As A Spread Against
Treasuries Professional traders of corporate bonds often talk about price in
terms of the difference between the bond’s yield and the yield of a treasury
with a comparable maturity. If a professional trader is offering a corporate
bond to another trader at “+175” and the yield of the comparable treasury is
2.00%, the yield on the corporate bond would be 3.75%.

If it is pegged, then it is ALWAYS +175. The fact that it is a quote at all and changes is proof that it floats: res ipsa loquitor.

jojo says

To fix (a price)

Good lord.

So what is the range that corporates are FIXED to Treasuries? No need to supply a chart: how many basis points from X(low) to Y(high) will corporates ALWAYS trade within the corresponding treasury?