patrick.net

Call it Crazy says

Your drive-by comment is useless, because if you did some research, you would see that purchase applications currently make up 43% of applications...

Nope-- I'm still correct. The fact that purchase applications now STILL only make up 43% of the total after refinance apps fell by a whopping 66% only strengthens my point.

Call it Crazy says

If you read the OP, it didn't differenciate, it was pointing it out as a whole that a lot of mortgage workers were fired.... You wanted to go off tangent, for what ever reason you usually do....

Yep--the OP didn't differentiate. And you and marco went on to imply that these layoffs indicate the recovery was a sham. That's why I needed to point out that the layoffs are a reflection of the lack of refinancing, not the lack of purchasing.

Call it Crazy says

The premise of the article is that the total housing market is off and not as healthy as some want to make it, resulting in tens of thousands of firings...

And that's not supported by a proper analysis of the data.

by the way--what is a "drive by" comment?

Keynesian is bullshit too since the business cycle is outdated in the age of computerization.

economic failures these a days are not "cyclical" but evidence of the unsustainable coming to a halt.

But the Austrian vs. Keynesian thing is a false dichotomy.

Both are bullshit. What we need is less wealth concentration and a reduction of the asymmetric flows from labor to capital (what Austrians cutely call 'savers'), but Austrians defend to their dying breath wealth concentration, that's what they were founded upon and that's where they get their money now.

The primary driver of inequality is the rents in land and health care. Each of these are $2T flows right out of the paycheck economy, although at least the latter does employ millions of people.

Bellingham Bill says

Austrians defend to their dying breath wealth concentration, that's what they were founded upon and that's where they get their money now.

Complete bullshit

Bellingham Bill says

The primary driver of inequality is the rents in land and health care. Each of these are $2T flows right out of the paycheck economy, although at least the latter does employ millions of people.

The cause has been stated many times on Pat.net, if you don't get it by now you never will.

jojo says

Strategist says

The dollar and America are a safe haven, and that is not changing any time soon.

China Busy Signing Currency Deals

http://www.forbes.com/sites/jackperkowski/2012/06/26/china-busy-signing-currency-deals/

The Petro Dollar -its origins:

http://smaulgld.com/why-saudi-arabia-matters-in-helping-to-keep-the-u-s-dollar-as-the-worlds-reserve-currency/

indigenous says

The cause has been stated many times on Pat.net, if you don't get it by now you never will.

Great. Now could you move on to stating a cure for cancer?

31. 80% of the posters on pat.net are aging white men.

indigenous says

The cause has been stated many times on Pat.net, if you don't get it by now you never will.

lol--stating it and proving it are two very different animals.

darlag says

Let's see... "Borrow and spend" or "Save and produce"?

If everybody saves, who will buy the produce - beyond a minimal amount to survive?

See Japan.

Reality says

Complete nonsense. the people who were forced to line up to hand in their gold were not the top 0.5%. In a gold standard system,

Historically - read any history of the Western World prior to the 20th Century - the wealthy have kept the PMs for themselves and issued paper to the peons. Even in the colonial days, the vast majority of commerce happened on credit. Even in late 19th Century Britain (and of course also the USA and just about everywhere else), there were credit crisis where the private gold-backed paper wasn't honored.

It's also why the wealthy always wanted a Gold-based system, and not silver. There's too much silver to corner.

The way to understand Austrians is to think they are wanna-be Bond Villains, and it all makes sense.

Hey, what happened to Mt. Gox?

Tee Hee!

Call it Crazy says

The big picture is that purchase apps are back to the levels of 1995, if you don't think that's a statistic to be concerned about regarding this so called "recovery", then there is no hope for you....

You can't stop with the strawman arguments, can you?

Call it Crazy says

Like a drive by shooting....

If you mean that I quickly destroy your assertions with a post or two, then I guess you are correct.

jojo says

tatupu70 says

Purchase apps are down 18% YOY

Think about that...

Waisting your time jojo. Tatupoo refuses to think. It stopped when he became a realtor and started drinking the kool-aid.

thunderlips11 says

If everybody saves, who will buy the produce - beyond a minimal amount to survive?

buying into their "saving" framing itself is bullshit when the top 0.1% of our economy owns 20% of it.

http://www.forbes.com/sites/robertlenzner/2011/11/20/the-top-0-1-of-the-nation-earn-half-of-all-capital-gains

Austrians don't have an answer to this, "savers" are good, so people clearing mllions and billions are the capstone of virtuousness, even though the rich are pulling their incomes not from the bottom of the sea or the asteroid belt but from the incomes of our wage-earner economy, via the trillion-dollar rents in real estate, health care, plus the near $2T profits corporations are taking now.

rooemoore says

31. 80% of the posters on pat.net are aging white men.

All white men are aging. Except the dead ones.

Bellingham Bill says

but Austrians defend to their dying breath wealth concentration, that's what they were founded upon and that's where they get their money now.

I don't think they do, as many closer to the Austrian camp were against the bailouts which would have reduced wealth disparity dramatically without any intervention and given all those who budgeted and invested prudently a fair chance at vertical mobility. I am sure some of the uber-wealthy welcomed the bailouts and now claim to be in the Austrian camp, but those are not the ones we are talking about.

Some of you doomsdayers are about five years late to the party. Look outside your window,,,,get with the program.

There is no avenue for another downturn,,,,no matter how much babbling you want to do about it. Every,friggin,day,,,,all.the.time

mell says

I am sure some of the uber-wealthy welcomed the bailouts and now claim to be in the Austrian camp

Huh, when Buffet or Immelt call themselves Austrians monkeys are going to ...

You ought to read what Stockman says about these guys, they are the antithesis of Austrian.

mell says

as many closer to the Austrian camp were against the bailouts which would have reduced wealth disparity dramatically without any intervention

more austrian dogma. Letting our $50T debt-based economy crater in 2008-2009 would have given us the 1930s, specifically the 1930-33 period of free fall cross-default that put half the economy out of work.

http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/TCMDO

and given all those who budgeted and invested prudently a fair chance at vertical mobility.

aka nobody

true austrians don't really care about labor, being 'savers', they have their assets to make money for them. Half the country out of work just means paying lower labor costs and being able to buy up more of the monopoly board from weaker hands

indigenous says

mell says

I am sure some of the uber-wealthy welcomed the bailouts and now claim to be in the Austrian camp

Huh, when Buffet or Immelt call themselves Austrians monkeys are going to ...

You ought to read what Stockman says about these guys, they are the antithesis of Austrian.

Agreed, unfortunately this distinction often gets lost in the noise.

jazz music says

It's all just a big misunderstanding you see .... blah blah blah .... we had no way of knowing ..... all the usual shite.

CEO when company makes record profits:
"We aggressively inspected our supply chain to identify potential effiencies and created more shareholder value. That's why I'm asking the board to double my options."

CEO when company faces video of slave labor that very same year:
"We had no idea that the suppliers of the basic commodity involved in our product creation was employing children and/or slaves."

mell says

unfortunately this distinction often gets lost in the noise.

I fail to see that, what am I missing?

Vicente says

Sticks are reserved for the lowest-paid workers, who should be beaten with them and threatened with firing at every turn.

Nobody ever checks to see if the C-Suite is walking away with company-paid pencils and steno pads. But god forbid the $9/hr customer service gal is found with a Acme Company pen in her purse...

indigenous says

mell says

unfortunately this distinction often gets lost in the noise.

I fail to see that, what am I missing?

People like to equate everybody who is rich with being Austrian, and the media often does not do their due diligence when people like Buffet or Immelt try to invoke the Austrian spirits when it suits them. Could be deliberately or just stupidity, or both. In any case there is no point in quoting De Tocqueville at modern day American Keynesians.. ;)

mell says

People like to equate everybody who is rich with being Austrian

I know of no one who equates being rich with being Austrian.

mell says

don't think they do, as many closer to the Austrian camp were against the bailouts which would have reduced wealth disparity dramatically without any intervention

That's completely incorrect. There would have been a very short term reduction followed by a much larger increase as the wealthy purchased assets at rock bottom prices.

Call it Crazy says

No your "drive by" is to quickly post your one-liners that aren't based in fact, reality or any other facet of life. It's normally just a cheap shot which makes you look small and insignificant... And doesn't add ANYTHING to the tread or discussion....

I think you need to take a step back and reassess your life. You're beginning to get a little creepy following me around and posting personal attacks. If you want to engage in a discussion about the topics at hand, please do. You seem to prefer to make all your posts about other posters and not the topic. Why is that?

Call it Crazy says

Ahhh, more "drive bys" without any data.... nice...

OK--is this better? Of the 10K people I've met, I've found zero correlation between wealth and economic theory.

tatupu70 says

mell says

don't think they do, as many closer to the Austrian camp were against the bailouts which would have reduced wealth disparity dramatically without any intervention

That's completely incorrect. There would have been a very short term reduction followed by a much larger increase as the wealthy purchased assets at rock bottom prices.

LOL - the data in 2008 clearly showed the trend - now you're making a completely blind assertion that it would have suddenly have reverted. Sure thing. Right, that is also the reason why the uber-wealthy almost unisono promoted and engineered the bailouts whereas the common working people rejected them.

mell says

LOL - the data in 2008 clearly showed the trend - now you're making a completely blind assertion that it would have suddenly have reverted

Sort of--I agree that we will never know what would have happened without government intervention, but I think it's hard to argue that wealthy folks wouldn't have scooped up assets at fire sale prices. Especially given what did happen w.r.t single family houses after the bubble popped.

mell says

whereas the common working people rejected them

bullshit. Just a lot of tea party demagoguing rousing the Birchers and anti-gummint loons among us.

nobody even knows what happened 2008-2009 -- Why, what, how. Who, maybe.

sbh says

Bellingham Bill says

Half the country out of work just means paying lower labor costs and being able to buy up more of the monopoly board from weaker hands

This is a fallacy because there is nothing to sell eventually. You don't want to own and maintain all of the monopoly board because depending on times and trends some enterprises will be profitable and some won't. Buying up "the world" is impossible, as 2008 clearly has shown (those who had bought up the most were screwed pre-bailouts).

Bellingham Bill says

bullshit. Just a lot of tea party demagoguing rousing the Birchers and anti-gummint loons among us.

You pick and choose as you see fit. Even the beloved mainstream media reported this, which doesn't mean they were right, but it certainly was not a fringe position.

Bellingham Bill says

nobody even knows what happened 2008-2009 -- Why, what, how. Who, maybe.

Another strong reason not to inject trillions of fiat credit on a whim and a bail out wealthy fuckers while letting the middle-class and future generations pay for it! Hey, we don't know what will happen, but let's print the shit out of that printing press anyways and fuck over our kids!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wz-PtEJEaqY

sbh says

They will never, ever get over this wet dream having been stolen away. They remain infuriated to the point of tears. Think of all the wealth concentration that was thwarted. Goddammit! FDR redux! It could have been beautiful, just fucking beautiful: all the middle class, working class, laid low and destitute by that shining moment of collapse. YOU COULD HAVE BOUGHT IBM FOR $400,000.00! FUCK FUCK FUCK THEY RUINED AMERICA!!!!!

I belatedly realized this was the core of Karl Denninger & much Tea Party rage. They identify with this guy:

Their moment of coming out as Kings of the American Apocalyptic Wasteland were ruined, and the leather and assless chaps had to go back in the closet.

They believe that America NEEDS a cleansing fire, and that naturally they will triumph during this event. They clothe it in "good for everyone" words, but it's really all about their survivalist fantasies and personal wealth. I have a close relative with the same personality flaw. He rages about how SOFT everyone is now and how they couldn't survive any real crisis and he's prepared for Doomsday with guns & gold & survivalist skills. Of course his work and personal life is absolute shit, he apparently can't cope even in this "soft" world we live in, and it's pure fantasy.

Call it Crazy says

You pop into threads with your "drive bys", but offer NOTHING to the discussion or topics at hand

So, pointing out that the layoffs likely have little to do with the recovery, or lack thereof, but are instead related to the reduction in refinance activity added nothing? Showing that refinance activity is down 66% while purchase activity is down 18% is not providing data and adding to the discussion?

Call it Crazy says

Now, there's a strawman for sure, and TOTAL Bullshit... I'm always referencing graphs, charts, articles, links and other data in MY responses to threads... Plus, I start many threads for discussion purposes..

I still don't think you understand what a strawman argument is. Regardless, the vast majority of your replies to me are worthless personal attacks. You need to look in a mirror. Seriously

Call it Crazy says

That was all you posted... It wasn't until I called you out on your drive-by did you go "looking" for data to support your post...

See, there's the difference between you and me. If I'm going to "challenge" a claim, I bring the data, charts or whatever with me to the post.

I didn't think I was challenging any claims. I was simply pointing out an obvious flaw in your reasoning. I thought it was well understood that refinance activity had significantly dropped. From now on I won't underestimate your lack of knowledge.

Call it Crazy says

What do you bring to the table (besides "drive-bys")??? 18 threads in like 4-1/2 years, Really??? Try not to wear out your mouse with all the information you provide here!!!!

The ignore feature is one of Patnet's best innovations

smaulgld says

The ignore feature is one of Patnet's best innovations

Yep, has worked for me very well for few years.

sbh says

I disagree, and you're smart enough to realize that even if everything is "owned" by the few who were solvent enough to buy it all up at the bottom, the plan is always to sell it back to the great unwashed a little at a time. The assets that aren't profitable are nothing in relation to the everything else that is owned. During normal times, VC routinely handles high failure rates due to the success of its winners. There's no reason to think it would be any different had we let the "Austrian apocalyptic cleansing" run its course. There would have been death, I'll grant you that. And some people would be satisfied with nothing less. I still think I would have made out like a bandit (literally), but I wonder how many people I would have had to slaughter.

We have to disagree here ;) Interestingly in 2008 nobody touched anything not even with a 10 ft pole, when prices were so "fire-sale" that some maintain that even today's prices are still a "bargain". No rich vultures scooping up anything until the Fed created 500 point up days for the Dow and injected trillions of fiat credit with the promise to support housing at whatever costs necessary. That was like a giant start signal for people with cash and connection as well as huge investment firms that can use and abuse all the "support" programs much better than any individual to go on a buying frenzy (I admit I did the same relatively undifferentiated with stocks back then).

Vicente says

I belatedly realized this was the core of Karl Denninger & much Tea Party rage. They identify with this guy:

It's easy to make fun of "prepped" people, but there is absolutely no doubt that it is immensely useful to be able to do as many things yourself as possible.