patrick.net

tatupu70 says

mell says

don't think they do, as many closer to the Austrian camp were against the bailouts which would have reduced wealth disparity dramatically without any intervention

That's completely incorrect. There would have been a very short term reduction followed by a much larger increase as the wealthy purchased assets at rock bottom prices.

LOL - the data in 2008 clearly showed the trend - now you're making a completely blind assertion that it would have suddenly have reverted. Sure thing. Right, that is also the reason why the uber-wealthy almost unisono promoted and engineered the bailouts whereas the common working people rejected them.

mell says

LOL - the data in 2008 clearly showed the trend - now you're making a completely blind assertion that it would have suddenly have reverted

Sort of--I agree that we will never know what would have happened without government intervention, but I think it's hard to argue that wealthy folks wouldn't have scooped up assets at fire sale prices. Especially given what did happen w.r.t single family houses after the bubble popped.

mell says

whereas the common working people rejected them

bullshit. Just a lot of tea party demagoguing rousing the Birchers and anti-gummint loons among us.

nobody even knows what happened 2008-2009 -- Why, what, how. Who, maybe.

sbh says

Bellingham Bill says

Half the country out of work just means paying lower labor costs and being able to buy up more of the monopoly board from weaker hands

This is a fallacy because there is nothing to sell eventually. You don't want to own and maintain all of the monopoly board because depending on times and trends some enterprises will be profitable and some won't. Buying up "the world" is impossible, as 2008 clearly has shown (those who had bought up the most were screwed pre-bailouts).

Bellingham Bill says

bullshit. Just a lot of tea party demagoguing rousing the Birchers and anti-gummint loons among us.

You pick and choose as you see fit. Even the beloved mainstream media reported this, which doesn't mean they were right, but it certainly was not a fringe position.

Bellingham Bill says

nobody even knows what happened 2008-2009 -- Why, what, how. Who, maybe.

Another strong reason not to inject trillions of fiat credit on a whim and a bail out wealthy fuckers while letting the middle-class and future generations pay for it! Hey, we don't know what will happen, but let's print the shit out of that printing press anyways and fuck over our kids!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wz-PtEJEaqY

sbh says

They will never, ever get over this wet dream having been stolen away. They remain infuriated to the point of tears. Think of all the wealth concentration that was thwarted. Goddammit! FDR redux! It could have been beautiful, just fucking beautiful: all the middle class, working class, laid low and destitute by that shining moment of collapse. YOU COULD HAVE BOUGHT IBM FOR $400,000.00! FUCK FUCK FUCK THEY RUINED AMERICA!!!!!

I belatedly realized this was the core of Karl Denninger & much Tea Party rage. They identify with this guy:

Their moment of coming out as Kings of the American Apocalyptic Wasteland were ruined, and the leather and assless chaps had to go back in the closet.

They believe that America NEEDS a cleansing fire, and that naturally they will triumph during this event. They clothe it in "good for everyone" words, but it's really all about their survivalist fantasies and personal wealth. I have a close relative with the same personality flaw. He rages about how SOFT everyone is now and how they couldn't survive any real crisis and he's prepared for Doomsday with guns & gold & survivalist skills. Of course his work and personal life is absolute shit, he apparently can't cope even in this "soft" world we live in, and it's pure fantasy.

Call it Crazy says

You pop into threads with your "drive bys", but offer NOTHING to the discussion or topics at hand

So, pointing out that the layoffs likely have little to do with the recovery, or lack thereof, but are instead related to the reduction in refinance activity added nothing? Showing that refinance activity is down 66% while purchase activity is down 18% is not providing data and adding to the discussion?

Call it Crazy says

Now, there's a strawman for sure, and TOTAL Bullshit... I'm always referencing graphs, charts, articles, links and other data in MY responses to threads... Plus, I start many threads for discussion purposes..

I still don't think you understand what a strawman argument is. Regardless, the vast majority of your replies to me are worthless personal attacks. You need to look in a mirror. Seriously

Call it Crazy says

That was all you posted... It wasn't until I called you out on your drive-by did you go "looking" for data to support your post...

See, there's the difference between you and me. If I'm going to "challenge" a claim, I bring the data, charts or whatever with me to the post.

I didn't think I was challenging any claims. I was simply pointing out an obvious flaw in your reasoning. I thought it was well understood that refinance activity had significantly dropped. From now on I won't underestimate your lack of knowledge.

Call it Crazy says

What do you bring to the table (besides "drive-bys")??? 18 threads in like 4-1/2 years, Really??? Try not to wear out your mouse with all the information you provide here!!!!

The ignore feature is one of Patnet's best innovations

smaulgld says

The ignore feature is one of Patnet's best innovations

Yep, has worked for me very well for few years.

sbh says

I disagree, and you're smart enough to realize that even if everything is "owned" by the few who were solvent enough to buy it all up at the bottom, the plan is always to sell it back to the great unwashed a little at a time. The assets that aren't profitable are nothing in relation to the everything else that is owned. During normal times, VC routinely handles high failure rates due to the success of its winners. There's no reason to think it would be any different had we let the "Austrian apocalyptic cleansing" run its course. There would have been death, I'll grant you that. And some people would be satisfied with nothing less. I still think I would have made out like a bandit (literally), but I wonder how many people I would have had to slaughter.

We have to disagree here ;) Interestingly in 2008 nobody touched anything not even with a 10 ft pole, when prices were so "fire-sale" that some maintain that even today's prices are still a "bargain". No rich vultures scooping up anything until the Fed created 500 point up days for the Dow and injected trillions of fiat credit with the promise to support housing at whatever costs necessary. That was like a giant start signal for people with cash and connection as well as huge investment firms that can use and abuse all the "support" programs much better than any individual to go on a buying frenzy (I admit I did the same relatively undifferentiated with stocks back then).

Vicente says

I belatedly realized this was the core of Karl Denninger & much Tea Party rage. They identify with this guy:

It's easy to make fun of "prepped" people, but there is absolutely no doubt that it is immensely useful to be able to do as many things yourself as possible.

It's something spoiled Americans can't deal with. Not buy our junky little desires? Why because some slave in China made it? But the slaves would be molested and beaten anyway, at least the corporation gives them a job, blah, blah, blah. Validation at all costs! We need our junk, we need it! It's our American right to fill our homes with useless throwaway crap.

I wonder what kind of validation the Southerners used in the civil war? Oh wait, there are articles and journals from that time period, and guess what validation thry used? Yes, they used almost the identical validation. There will always be elitists who validate evil. Let them eat cake! Whatever helps them sleep at night.

hrhjuliet says

BTW Mr. Wong, it doesn't make Nestlé justified because the country itself participates in unthinkable horrors.

na! its just easier to beat up on the white guy and call him
racists slaver and imperialist.

thunderlips11 says

CEO when company faces video of slave labor that very same year:

"We had no idea that the suppliers of the basic commodity involved in our product creation was employing children and/or slaves."

you can add these nations into the global economic trade or watch
them on TV as their people are starving and die.... simple ban all trade with
these nations and disallow products and services... see what happens !

Your Choice !

It's because he knows that if he starts enforcing it, the law will get instantly repealed with public outcry. So he just keeps kicking the can until enough people are in it, so that the rest of us suckers will have very little say left.

bgamall4 says

The TBTF banks have a bigger market share of deposits than ever.

The TBTFs were bankrupt. Whomever you suspect to be behind it, their means were the bailouts with massive injected fiat which goes against everything Libertarian or Austrian.

I was listening to a podcast that Smaulgld posted last night. The speaker on real estate 360 made the reasonable point that rates to spike up a little when the fed talks about a taper, but lately, they drift back down again over a few weeks. Maybe not back to where they started?

How many Mulligans is this now?

jojo says

Yes, the increased variability (volatility) of weather systems is a strong indication of Climate Change. Global weather patterns are a chaotic system in a steady state.

Woah! Liberals don't get to own the changing of the seasons or the extremes that they go. The inconvenient truth was, we were headed for a Global warming catastrophe. The Winters were getting warmer.

What happens when we get back to mild season patterns?

Liberals will hijack reality to make another nonsensical manufactured point.
Netflix will be full of Liberal climate themed Mild weather disaster flicks. With out fear, Liberals are worthless.

thomaswong.1986 says

you can add these nations into the global economic trade or watch

them on TV as their people are starving and die.... simple ban all trade with

these nations and disallow products and services... see what happens !

Your Choice !

That's a false choice, there are more options that are being simply ignored because they cost more, but are better for the working class.

jojo says

There is lots of information provided in this thread.

I have provide information as well.

...Enjoy!

Why not? What do they do really? I can look up homes online, and I can pay a small fee to have a lawyer or paralegal write my contract. What good are they? The only reason real estate agents survive is an extremely strong union; The National Association of Realtors.

I have to tell you, no one is doing it right. There is redfin which makes it a bit easier, but there isn't a real big player out there who makes this an easy simple process for a seller and a buyer to do FSBO.

If Patrick, or someone else, could come into this industry and change that they'll retire in riches, he'll I'd even invest money into that idea.

I agree we can buy and sell pretty much everything else ourselves without an agent. I used to laugh when people in the bay area would pay the realtor comission when you could put a sign out front and still get the same 10 offers on your own.

Call it Crazy says

It's just like why a third party hasn't been able to take hold in this
country... The "sheep" are too pre-programmed to think there is ONLY two
teams... The Red team and Blue team (which are really the same in the
end)....

Jesse Ventura says some crazy things, but also some things that are spot on. The Red Team and the Blue Team fight to not allow a 3rd party to join the race, such as the nationally televised debates.

6% comission on a $750,000 sale = $45,000, are you kidding me for what?

Analyzer says

Call it Crazy says

It's just like why a third party hasn't been able to take hold in this

country... The "sheep" are too pre-programmed to think there is ONLY two

teams... The Red team and Blue team (which are really the same in the

end)....

Jesse Ventura says some crazy things, but also some things that are spot on. The Red Team and the Blue Team fight to not allow a 3rd party to join the race, such as the nationally televised debates.

6% comission on a $750,000 sale = $45,000, are you kidding me for what?

You literally get $45,000 worth of bullshit.

jojo says

It actually works to preserve the existing system and forces young people to subsidize old people

I'm all for that!

What is back of the envelope cost estimate (1st 10 years) for getting a $500,000 home loan:

3% closing costs = $15,000
0.68% property tax (x 10 yrs) = $34,000
$1500 home insurance (x 10 yrs) = $15,000
4% mortgage interest 1st 10 yrs = $107,000
$2500 maintenance (x 10 yrs) = $25,000

Total cost estimate for holding a $500,000 home loan (1st 10 yrs) = $200,000

Then if you want to sell you need to pay an additional $30,000 in comissions?

jojo says

It actually works to preserve the existing system and forces young people to subsidize old people. I guess logical reasoning does not appeal to everyone...

Old people already had Medicare. Obamacare isn't about old people, it's just putting everyone into the same system and forcing everyone to buy insurance, which is now even more expensive.

There is some good to it, especially if you have preexisting conditions. But it has not reduced prices like promised, it has so far increased prices. And you can no longer get "health insurance". You can get the "pre negotiated fees type of insurance". Very different.

APOCALYPSEFUCKisShostikovitch says

If you're not throwing REALTORS from bridges, you are part of the problem.

In fairness realtors can be performing a legitimate business, there is no law making it mandatory to use them for real estate transactions.

jojo says

FortWayne says

Obamacare isn't about old people,

It absolutely is about this. It forces people in their 20s to subsidize people who are 55-65 (before tjey go on medicare). It also forces younger people to pay up and subsidize the people with pre existing conditions.

But if you are on medicare why are you so opposed?

Because it changes how insurance works JoJo. You are forced into the system of pre negotiated fees, you are forced to buy a product while real insurance is forced out.

So far insurance costs have gone up, they've gone up for us as well. And if you notice how our government and corporations work, overtime these fees will skyrocket eventually when the next insurance commissioner will be elected by an health insurance industry.

Without a public option and ways to control costs, this whole idea is shit.

APOCALYPSEFUCKisShostikovitch says

If you're not throwing REALTORS from bridges, you are part of the problem.

Too many realtors, not enough bridges.

Call it Crazy says

Analyzer says

What is back of the envelope cost estimate (1st 10 years) for getting a $500,000 home loan:

3% closing costs = $15,000

0.68% property tax (x 10 yrs) = $34,000

$1500 home insurance (x 10 yrs) = $15,000

4% mortgage interest 1st 10 yrs = $107,000

$2500 maintenance (x 10 yrs) = $25,000

Total cost estimate for holding a $500,000 home loan (1st 10 yrs) = $200,000

Then if you want to sell you need to pay an additional $30,000 in comissions?

It's a wonderful country, isn't it!!!!

Don't forget to factor in the loss of opportunity on your down payment that could have been invested elsewhere....

Think about how these numbers change if applying to one of the million dollar shacks in the bay area...........

Yes, I do believe we should not engage in business with nations that advocate or allow slavery, abuse, or utilize children.

What's the worst that will happen? The price of non-necessities will go up? It will hurt some corporate empire's bottom line? Worried corporations will bring manufacturing to the States were we have stupid and unsound business laws against slavery?

Give me one good reason not to boycott them?

Call it Crazy says

Analyzer says

Think about how these numbers change if applying to one of the million dollar shacks in the bay area...........

That's the part that no one will dispute.... (and makes no sense)..

In reality, it takes about the same amount of time by a realtor to sell/close a $200K house as a $1 million house. For the most part, the paperwork and effort is the same...

So, why is the commission (6%) on the $200K house $12K while the commission on the $1 million house $60K???? Did the realtors on the $1 million house do 5 times the amount of work???

It's nonsense.

I would be very interested in a DIY sale if/when that time comes. My only issue is that I'd be paranoid that that realtors will try to sabotage you and either not show clients your property or dissuade them from making an offer. They still have the market share at this point to do it. Hopefully not for too much longer.

DIY Sellers - Make sure to put in the write up that there are cash incentives for NOT working with a realtor. Two can play at the sabotage game.

I'd still fear that buyer's agents, despite still getting commission, will avoid your property in order to defend realty as a profession. In this low inventory market (in the Bay Area at least), it might be less of a worry, though, as they are more desperate.