patrick.net

Prices in Phoenix are well below build costs from what I'm told. I know I'm off 70% from the peak.

Do you really think the East German unemployment rate is accurate? The Soviets lied about everything they possibly could.

So whats the Chinese motive? While any nuclear armed government can launch a sneak attack to take out coastal cities, then will never be able to take out the entire countries defenses before a counterstrike in launched. Even if hypothetically a sneak attack resulted on the total destruction of the United States without us firing a return shot the resulting radiation and smoke from fires from hundreds of cities would block out the sun as the weather distributed it around the earth. The end result would be pretty much the elimination of most of the world wide population with the exception of those who have prepared themselves in shelters for just such an event. There really no upside this point in time.

Whacky. Maybe a "Crimson Tide" incident?

Or maybe the SGC taking out a Ha'tak that popped into orbit:

Here is the #1 thing to watch out for when using an FHA 203(k) loan. Use experienced professionals who have experience with the 203k.

According to HUD/FHA, any FHA lender can do a 203k, but you need to work with a loan originator who has 203k experience.

Realtors should also have training, education and/or experience with the 203k, especially with writing and submitting offers. Here's some verbiage that HUD recommends to be placed in a 203k offer: The contract should state that the buyer is seeking an FHA 203(k) loan and that the “contract is contingent on loan approval based on additional required repairs by the FHA or the lender” or the “contract is contingent upon buyer(s) obtaining an FHA 203(k) loan without conditions and contingent on loan approval based on additional required repairs by
the FHA or the lender.”

While HUD/FHA permit the borrower to hire any contractor they want, HUD/FHA require the lender to "approve" the contractor by verifying their client references, credentials, licensing information, type of work performed, work experience, and experience. But since lenders do not educate contractors on the complexities of the 203k, contractors who want to do 203k work can obtain their 203k contractor education and 203k Contractor Certification at http://203kContractors.com .

-----
203kContractors.com®
203k Contractor Directory for the FHA 203(k) Loan
Direct - 480.463.4663
Paul Welden

and now for a commercial break.... geez.

So whats the Chinese motive?
South China Sea. You come to our backyard -- well, we can come to yours. See Obama: Asian Sphere of Influence Tour 2010. That would be quite an escalation, though...

If the rest of USA put into California (per capita) what West Germany put into East Germany over 20 years, streets would be literally paved with gold there.

As for the military expense, sure.
For a change, would Germany kindly station Bundeswehr troops in all major US states and on our Southern border to defend us for the next 60 years while
we re-build our economy?

Crazy volatility.

Thunder: I watch several news channels, usually back to back (thanks to the wonders of DVR). I watch local and national U.S. news reports, Channel 2 in SF and NBC with Brian Williams. Then I watch DW, RT, BBC and/or Journal TV. You should try it some time, if you can get those broadcasts. The difference is hard to miss.

I seethe with envy when I see DW cut to videos of steel factories, automobile plants, and computer companies in Germany, and the narrator is blithely quoting yet more positive economic numbers for the nation. (insert finger-down-throat gesture here)

Whether its their military spending or their (evil) social market economy, they're doing better than California. Did any of us ever think one day California would envy the former Eastern Germany's economy? Or that the major creditor of the U.S. would be China?

Side note: Germany just paid the last of its WWI reparations on Sunday, October 3, 2010.

http://www.csmonitor.com/World/Europe/2010/1004/Germany-finishes-paying-WWI-reparations-ending-century-of-guilt

So now they are saying it's a sort of a trick of perspective view of a jet contrail:

http://www.wired.com/dangerroom/2010/11/mystery-missile-is-probably-a-jet/

Fisk, Western Europe doesn't need protection anymore, the US military presence there is more of a base for operations in the middle east.

Also thunderlips, total US military budget is more like $1 trillion than 1/2, though the official figures won't state it.

sam1 says

Fisk, Western Europe doesn’t need protection anymore, the US military presence there is more of a base for operations in the middle east.

Exactly. As we protected them when they needed it and thus saved them major expenses allowing them to rebuild their economy, how about they return the favor now that we need to save on the military to rebuild ours? Otherwise, how would we essentially eliminate the defense budget, copying Germany per the poster's suggestion?

German companies pay a full 100% of an employees wages to the government. On top of that, employees pay taxes. From my last conversation with a german about work over there. I can only imagine how people would handle that over here.

Granted, it works.

It would be a scary thought if this was some foreign submarine that got this close to US border undectected and fire a missile from close range, making the attack if directed inland undefensable.

The US can't defend from Submarine firing missile this close. There's too much water to detect and antimissile can't stop something with no lead time to respond.

I can't imagine the US military will do this off of populated LA, in plain sight of so many people and media. My thoughts are the same as thunderlip

Scary indeed

I worked with a couple of people who had worked on nuclear subs. They would have training missions to track other subs where they would just follow another sub along at 1/2mile range. While they were topside they would have no problems tracking them, as soon as they dove they disappeared completely and they said that was with them being 1/2 mile away and knowing their exact location. As soon as they went under they simply disappeared.

He also stated that they had been off the coast of Russia a few times, and could see street lights from their positions of major cities. He wouldn't get into details about the missions, but they were active missions with a purpose. That shows that they were able to easily slip into anywhere they wanted.

That was probably early 90's? I'm guessing that many countries now have the same abilities or near it, and when you calculate in the sheer amount of water, it becomes impossible to find them.

I'm sorry but foreign ballistic missile submarine just doesn't make much sense.

The list of countries with fleets of such submarines roaming the oceans is short.
None of them have a beef with us large enough to be poking a stick in our eye.
UK? France? Nope. Which leaves Russia or China. China I discount immediately
because their leadership is entirely rational and not prone to warning shots.

Even with Putin frictions of late, there's a difference between a few Bears in
NATO airspace and 35 miles off LA. That kind of close and launching missiles
is just ASKING for an unfortunate incident. Assume it were a boomer and there
happened to be a destroyer in proximity? There's a large difference between
"we took periscope pictures of Venice Beach" and "by the way we lit off an
SLBM for fun". The first is a Cold War known tactic, the second is a recipe
for depth charges, torpedoes, and bodies floating in radioactive water.

I'd sooner buy a "Mad Major" than I would a deliberate provocation.

Watching the video again, the contrail is the simplest and therefore
it is most likely the correct explanation. The movement of the shiny bit
at the top does look more like setting sun reflecting off a plane than
it does a rocket exhaust.

I'm wondering where all the people bashing me when Silver was at $10 went?

Oh yeah, let me state that I don't think it was a foreign doing, but tey definitely could do it.

I'm not sure about contrail, but someone will figure it out or fess up to doing it (some US military division).

Some lenders (loan originators) do require contractors to obtain a 203k Contractor Certification before they will approve them. Unless the lender or the borrower requires it, a certification is not required. The certification is only an external validation of the contractor's understanding, knowledge and education on the complexities of the 203k.

The buyer is permitted to use any contractor with 2 conditions, according to HUD:

1- no conflict of interest exists between the borrower and the contractor. Borrower cannot be affiliated or associated with the contractor. Borrower cannot be shareholder or owner of the contractor company. The Realtors involved cannot be associated or affiliated with the contractor in the same ways as the borrower is restricted. Read the Interest of Identity form the lender will provide. This is according to HUD.

2- the lender must "approve" the contractor

With all the moving parts the 203k has, contractors need to understand the variations between the 2 versions (Streamline and Standard/Rehab), how they get paid, lender's overlay restrictions, HUD Guidelines, FHA's Minimum Property Standards, HUD's time lines for starting and completing work, Draw Request forms and procedures, how to use the contingency reserve funds, Change Order forms, etc.

Education on the 203k is important, regardless if it's received through certification or other methods.

Fisk says

sam1 says

Fisk, Western Europe doesn’t need protection anymore, the US military presence there is more of a base for operations in the middle east.

Exactly. As we protected them when they needed it and thus saved them major expenses allowing them to rebuild their economy, how about they return the favor now that we need to save on the military to rebuild ours? Otherwise, how would we essentially eliminate the defense budget, copying Germany per the poster’s suggestion?

You don't need to eliminate the defense budget, you could just slash it by at least half if you get out of Iraq and Afghanistan and close off half of the ~800 bases overseas. We don't really need 2,500 F35 at nearly $100M per. It wouldn't be such a burden if the defense budget is brought down to around 3%-5% of the total GDP. That BTW would still represent the biggest military budget in the world, by a wide margin.

I am in the same situation as well. We decided to go all cash instead. They stopped accepting offers after mine went in. We'll see how my offer does against possible 203k loans since the listing agents stated that there were multiple offers. I expect a response either tomorrow or day after.

theoakman says

I’m wondering where all the people bashing me when Silver was at $10 went?

Why do you care? PM's are doing well - be happy with that.

joshuatrio says

theoakman says

I’m wondering where all the people bashing me when Silver was at $10 went?

Why do you care? PM’s are doing well - be happy with that.

I'm more than happy. I turned myself from dirt poor into a homeowner with a huge safety net in a span of 3 years. I find it hilarious that they remain on this site and completely dodge this thread.

I think I'd agree with you. That's the only explanation I could think of why the home price is still so high and hard to afford in these areas.

Troy says

Redfin has 63 SFH listings for 90487.
There are 40,000 GOOG and AAPL worker bees.
ahum.
When I was FOB in Cupertino in 2000, 90487 was too rich for my manager at Apple, who had purchased a $400K place in Morgan Hill and tried to commute the 101 and 85.
He’s still at Apple, has his old manager’s job, and I suspect he’s no longer making that commute, if you get my drift.
Prices have risen in lockstep with the inverse of interest rates:
http://www.zillow.com/homedetails/1428-Knowlton-Dr-Sunnyvale-CA-94087/19623757_zpid/
Higher rates might push prices down, but as long as AAPL and GOOG are healthy and hiring, I don’t see any major fall in this outer fortress area.

while (1)
{
x = monthly payment if buy the house;
y = monthly pay check;
if (y > x)
{
buy the house;
smile;
break;
}
if (current age > retire age)
{
cry;
break;
}
work hard to get a big pay check;
pray on patrick forum to lower the house price;
wait 10ms;
}

cloud13 says

How different is mission san jose from warm springs or even mil pitas ?? Just different schools. Same kind of people live there.

I disagree. The fuckwits who bought in Mission San Jose (or any other "Great School District") are far more annoying to talk to.

Wow, lots of programmers in P net.
I will just play "Angry Birds", you know, to get the pigs! :P

Let's see. Rent this house for $3280: http://sfbay.craigslist.org/sby/apa/2043858689.html

Or pay about $900,000 for one like it, which is a PITI of about $5300, I think.

If you put 20% down, it's about $4400, still WAY more than renting, and if prices fall, you're underwater and that downpayment is toast.

Roberto, I think troy is addressing the statement that "still WAY more than renting" is simply not true. Nothing more, nothing less.

If the PITI is 4,400 a month, there is about $900 - 1,000 in principle included in that amount. Principle repayment is a form of reinvestment to lower prospective housing cost. In addition, based on current underwriting standard, the borrower of this loan will be making a minimum 200K, which will result in a monthly tax benefit of around $1,200 - $1,500 federal and state.

Net out the tax benefits and principle repayment and it's pretty clear that the cost to buy is cheaper than renting. That in itself doesn't mean that price will go up, in fact, it would likely go down, but not as much as you think.

Sure, the buyer can go underwater, but it can gain equity in the mid/long term as well. It's a risk vs. reward type of deal. There's no way to know where price will be 10 years from now, as long as buying is cheaper than renting, there is no need to worry about short term price movement. For the right buyer, buying is far from a mistake.

"finance 900K with 20% down, 30 yr fixed at 5%,"

No one is going to finance this at 900K. It is going to be a conforming jumbo, which is around 730K. Current rates for conforming jumbo is around 4.5% - 4.625%. Insurance is about 1K-1.5K a year, property tax is about 12K. Maintenance is a function of size not price so it is no more than a home in Arizona.

"As to your tax benefit, for the LAST TIME it is not a straight deduction, it REPLACES your standard deductions… "

That is true, except in CA, people who earns 200K+ would itemize based on state income tax. personal property tax and SDI alone. No dilution issue, but there may be phase out issue if anything.

robertoaribas says

so I’ll stick by my 5% realistic estimate of rate

The difference between 4.5% and 5% is $140/mo over the 30 year life of the loan ($2180 vs $2320).

With 20% down, the $900,000 @ 5% for 30 property has:

PITI: $4990
Tax Credit: $1380

The nominal cost of ownership (PITI less the P) is $3500/mo starting out. This declines to $1100/mo as the loan is payed off, leaving the average TCO over the 30 year life at $2320/mo.

Actual monthly expense is $3900, or $4352 including the lost interest on the down payment.

Google mortgage is actually saying a 15 year condo mortgage can be had for 3.625%. Putting that number in yields:

PITI: $6300
Tax credit: $1100

Nominal starting TCO: $2950/mo
Actual cash outgo: $5540/mo
Average TCO over 15 years: $1880/mo

There is also the ~$430/mo opportunity cost (the interest on the down payment) to factor in here.

fwiw I fully believe the status quo in California is unsustainable and there's more downward movement in the cards as either taxes are raised substantially or gov't spending cut draconiously. Either and both of these are bad news for the housing market.

But the numbers are what they are. The general trend has been for incomes to double over time. Houses have to follow suit, at least in areas where this increased (nominal if not real) buying power cannot prompt additional supply to be created to satisfy it.

Historically, getting in on this escalator has paid off well, though the 20% average annual rise in the S&P in the 90s did probably make buying in the 80s a wash or less.

My parents bought in 1981. Let's say their mortgage payment was initially $200 more than equivalent rent, which due to inflation declined $20/yr, to 0 in 1992 -- and now in 2010 the equivalent rent is $340 more than the monthly loan payment.

Using these numbers and the CAGR of the S&P, if my parents had rented 1981-now they'd have $167,000 in stocks, but be out $36,000 in increased housing costs of 1992-now, when rents went above the 1981 purchase cost, for a cash position of ~$130,000 over buying.

Having bought in 1981, the house is actually paid off now and lawncare costs more than the property tax ($90/mo). We'd have a ~$250,000 asset with a cost of ownership $900/mo less than rents, plus $44,000 in savings from 1992-now when buying in 1981 became cheaper than renting.

Not having to deal with landlords over the past 30 years also has non-monetary benefits.

I don't really see a crash coming to the fortresses. There's going to be a safety premium in these areas if things continue as they are.

I am planning to buy a house in one of these zips. Good house with all 3 good schools.
I feel prices are high.. and I can’t afford.
What is in future for these zips.. say in spring of 2011…
No sweat.. still in correction mode!

Troy says

If had stayed at Apple, I’d have around $5M worth of stock stashed by now.
And I was just a very ordinary lower-middle tier worker bee awarded a piddling 1000 options vesting over 4 years.

I known people who worked at Apple for 20 years, some since the early the early 80s.
They dont have much to show for it. Some live far out in parts of Morgan Hill and Gilroy.

robertoaribas says

Salaries are their own market, responding to supply and demand forces.

I completely agree. The PTB think price shocks will start pushing up salaries, but there are other things they can push DOWN on, like rents and anything non-essential like soda.

I also don't think the 80s and 90s have much to do with now, just like the 70s and 80s of Japan don't have anything to do with Japan, now.

SF ace says

Roberto, I think troy is addressing the statement that “still WAY more than renting” is simply not true. Nothing more, nothing less.
If the PITI is 4,400 a month, there is about $900 - 1,000 in principle included in that amount. Principle repayment is a form of reinvestment to lower prospective housing cost. In addition, based on current underwriting standard, the borrower of this loan will be making a minimum 200K, which will result in a monthly tax benefit of around $1,200 - $1,500 federal and state.
Net out the tax benefits and principle repayment and it’s pretty clear that the cost to buy is cheaper than renting. That in itself doesn’t mean that price will go up, in fact, it would likely go down, but not as much as you think.
Sure, the buyer can go underwater, but it can gain equity in the mid/long term as well. It’s a risk vs. reward type of deal. There’s no way to know where price will be 10 years from now, as long as buying is cheaper than renting, there is no need to worry about short term price movement. For the right buyer, buying is far from a mistake.

This is illogical. You aren't counting the principal repayment, which would only work if you are sure that the value of the house will go up. If the value goes down, those principal payments are down the toilet. Based on your assumption that the principal payments will actually gain you equity, you then conclude that it's cheaper to buy than rent. But then you go on to say that you don't know if the value will go up, but that's o.k. because it's cheaper to buy than rent. Circular reasoning.

And we won't even get into the fact that you are comparing a mortgage WITH a 20% down payment to rent with NO initial outlay, which is not a valid comparison.

gameisrigged says

If the value goes down, those principal payments are down the toilet

Sorta. Principal payments reduce the interest cost of the home loan.

gameisrigged says

comparing a mortgage WITH a 20% down payment to rent with NO initial outlay

Yes, the down payment indeed represents a loss of continued interest income.

Let's take this $700,000 bad boy in Fresno:

http://www.movoto.com/real-estate/homes-for-sale/CA/Fresno/750-E-Santa-Ana-Ave-104_361643.htm

If I pay $280,000 now and borrow the conforming limit @ 3.4% after 15 years I will have a housing expense for this place of $900/mo or so.

Over the 15 year horizon, total interest costs on this are $75,000, the property tax expense is $84,000, misc expenses are $80,000, for $240,000 in TCO or an average of $1340/mo over the first 15 years.

THAT certainly beats renting.

But as you say in addition there is the lost interest of $700/mo (@ 3%), in 2025 the $280,000 downpayment will have accrued to $430,000.

And the requirement to pay down the $420,000 mortgage over 15 years that could have found better employment.

But this does provide rent-free living, which is worth say $2000/mo to me, $360,000 over the first 15 years, call it a wash on the $420,000 given a mild rent inflation.

Buy: $280,000 downpayment, worth $430,000 in 2025 if saved instead
TCO: $240,000 in misc extra (non-rental) expenses over first 15 years

So not buying gives me the $430,000 downpayment + accrued interest + $240,000 misc extra = $670,000

Seems to me having this house free and clear in 2025, with a continuing housing expense of $900/mo is better than having an extra $670,000 in the bank . . .

^ but note they've already lowered the price on this $30,000.

That's two years free rent, and I can wait, especially to see what 2012 holds. Fuckin' Mayans.

This is where my living in Japan 1992-2000 has helped me. It's like I'm watching the sequel.

Except they didn't extend everyone's unemployment 73 weeks.

People don't understand that this decade is just getting started.