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Business and the economy in the post bubble world


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2006 Apr 11, 9:20am   21,041 views  152 comments

by astrid   ➕follow (0)   💰tip   ignore  

Ladies and gents,

The mainstream media is finally recognizing the end of the housing bubble we sensible folks (A.K.A. bubbleheads A.K.A. JBR) have been talking about for years. I ask you, oh you forward looking mental giants, what's in store next?

Specifically, you economists amongst us, please enlighten us with vital knowledge about current and future inflation, deflation, stagflation, and all other vari-ations.

Oh come all ye Fannie Mae haters, ye Fed idiocy watchers, ye Libertarians, please tell us what's you think is going to happen to the McMansion industrial complex when the bubble blows or deflates.

You entrepreneurs amongst us, please peddle your wacky post-bubble get rich schemes here. You cannot go too low. 1800-BKRPTCY? Realt-Whore escort agency? Don't worry, our minds will follow you wherever you go.

astrid

#housing

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123   Peter P   2006 Apr 11, 3:24pm  

i actually don’t like seafood at all, heh. the sun, sea and sand here are all wasted on me…

What?

Okay, at least the rack of lamb down there must be amazing.

do they boil them?

BBQ would be great. :)

124   astrid   2006 Apr 11, 3:25pm  

Peter P,

I'd recommend lobster sashimi, it's quite good.

Also, have you tried eating live shrimp, the texture is quite excellent.

125   astrid   2006 Apr 11, 3:27pm  

As for lamb, I recalled reading that Iceland has the best lamb. Their lambs are all, erh, free ranged. They're actually trying to cull the population to reduce their environmental impact.

126   Peter P   2006 Apr 11, 3:27pm  

I’d recommend lobster sashimi, it’s quite good.

Absolutely. Especially with Aussie lobsters. Sashimi of Maine lobsters do not taste nearly as good.

have you tried eating live shrimp

Live or raw? Unfortunately all shrimps are dead by the time thay reach my plate.

127   Peter P   2006 Apr 11, 3:30pm  

I do not like raw vegetables though.

128   astrid   2006 Apr 11, 3:30pm  

Live shrimp. This seems to work best with fresh water shrimp from near Shanghai, though I might catch some interesting parasites this way.

129   Peter P   2006 Apr 11, 3:33pm  

This seems to work best with fresh water shrimp from near Shanghai, though I might catch some interesting parasites this way.

I prefer saltwater seafood.

But fresh water shrimps from Shanghai taste very good sauteed and served with black vinegar.

130   astrid   2006 Apr 11, 3:35pm  

Do you buy them live? Half of my family refuse to eat these things if they're not cooked alive.

131   Peter P   2006 Apr 11, 3:35pm  

Astrid, do you know of a place that serves Shanghai-style fresh water shrimps? I tried a few Chinese restaurants here and they all use the wrong shrimps.

132   Peter P   2006 Apr 11, 3:36pm  

Do you buy them live? Half of my family refuse to eat these things if they’re not cooked alive.

It is fine if they are not "live" but fresh enough.

133   astrid   2006 Apr 11, 3:37pm  

Sadly, no.

134   Peter P   2006 Apr 11, 3:40pm  

Sadly, no.

Oh no. :(

135   astrid   2006 Apr 11, 3:41pm  

Well, someone else might. I'm not familiar with BA eating places at all.

136   astrid   2006 Apr 11, 3:42pm  

Otherwise, Shanghai and Hong Kong are only a $300-400 dollar flight away.

137   Peter P   2006 Apr 11, 3:44pm  

Well, luckily, sashimi in the Bay Area is not bad at all.

138   surfer-x   2006 Apr 11, 4:09pm  

I typically prefer my Veal free range, and beaten to death.

139   surfer-x   2006 Apr 11, 4:12pm  

ramen and malt liquor

I bought Schlitz out of a vending machine on Kyushu once, then had drinks with a Yakuza.

140   tsusiat   2006 Apr 11, 4:20pm  

surfer-x

Did something similar stumbling home from Susukino once. Gotta love all those vending mahines with cans of malt liuor and bottles of scotch in them on the street corner. That was cool!

141   tsusiat   2006 Apr 11, 4:24pm  

BTW -

it's almost like looking at the sun, it will burn your eyes out, so look away -

kind of like all the talk here about inflation, deflation, stagflation.

Look at Germany in the 1920s, kind of gives me an idea of one possible outcome to the current economic mess:

Asset destruction, dollar devaluation, deficits and debts requiring high rates to secure ANY kind of continued investment

=

hyperinflation.

The World Bank and the IMF are going to be the next President's best friends.....

142   Different Sean   2006 Apr 11, 4:58pm  

Look at US in the Great Depression also - 25% unemployment, bottoming out of the consumer boom, total lack of consumer confidence, repossessions everywhere...

143   Different Sean   2006 Apr 11, 5:07pm  

I do not like raw vegetables though.

ah, la crudité... that's actually best for you, no degradation of vitamins, antioxidants, etc... as long as you wash all the soil off first... maybe lightly steamed...

They’re actually trying to cull the population to reduce their environmental impact.

shouldn't have any trouble selling culled lamb on the market... 5 year old mutton is another story...

Okay, want to go back to wacky get rich quick schemes?

who, me? i was just reflecting on these when i came back to the site and hit F5, by a coincidence - how people like Kiyosaki imply that working for a living is for schmos, and you should always be looking out for scams and ways of getting rich quick... and how many people have tried taking the 'easy money' route of property, where you could make more in a single sale than all your life savings from waged work to date - no wonder it's tempting to many...

on the other hand, baudrillard suggests that all remuneration is just a 'gift', where the market decides how much to gift people for their efforts, or through other means, such as inheritances, scams, etc - I know what he's getting at - e.g. someone might be paid more just because the boss likes them, and it's hard to measure the real benefit of an MBA or a Congressman as often as not...

144   astrid   2006 Apr 11, 5:29pm  

arf, insomnia.

DS,

You really got to take my phrasing a little less seriously. No one here is actually peddling a get rich quick scheme. I planned this thread as an educational + brainstorming thread. Then participated in degrading the thread into food and architecture. (sound familar?)

Kioyosaki is widely derided in the bubblehead community as a liar and a joke.

Also, there's nothing wrong with looking ahead for opportunities. I'm not rich enough to devote myself to altruistic deeds alone. However, if you can get me a million dollar grant for an organic farm, I'll be more than happy to give up my selfish existence and grow green leafy vegetables for war orphans.

145   Peter P   2006 Apr 11, 6:16pm  

ah, la crudité… that’s actually best for you, no degradation of vitamins, antioxidants, etc… as long as you wash all the soil off first… maybe lightly steamed…

I know... but somehow I cannot stand crispy veggies. Maybe lightly steamed (or poached in broth) then.

146   Peter P   2006 Apr 11, 6:21pm  

arf, insomnia.

Try brainwave entrainment.

You can download BrainWave Generator for free and it may help you arrive at certain states of consciousness.

http://www.bwgen.com/

Sometimes, I have really serious insomnia problems. They tend to come in streaks and I suspect that they are somehow related to planetary alignments. :-P

147   astrid   2006 Apr 11, 6:28pm  

DS,

Also, this this

http://www.nybooks.com/articles/18910

on DailyKos

149   Different Sean   2006 Apr 11, 7:56pm  

i just wrote some great repllies to the healthcare thing etc, and they are all lost in cyberspace :cry: can't be assed writing them again...

patrick needs to upgrade urgently!

150   frank649   2006 Apr 12, 11:21am  

"If I’m happy with rent of $1000/mo and salary is $50,000/yr then I should also be happy with rent of $2000/mo and salary of $100,000/yr, assuming everything else also doubles." - Randy H.

It's not that simple. New money favors its first recipients to the disadvantage of later ones. Incomes don't necessarily rise accordingly, and for people on fixed incomes, not at all. Inflation produced by the introduction of new money (monetary inflation) that doesn't replace worn money, can only do harm to an economy.

151   frank649   2006 Apr 12, 11:47am  

SL, let me give it a shot...

"I don’t understand the economy. How do you quantify “inflation”?"

Inflation used to refer simply to an increase in the supply of money that you usually experience through its consequence of increasing prices. Today the term is also used to describe the 'consequence' (rising prices), which is quite misleading. Many people distinguish the two by using the term 'monetary inflation' for the former and 'price inflation' for the latter; this is much clearer imo.

"I mean everyday prices on electronics drop (i.e. for the same $ you get better stuff the longer you wait) so is that deflation?"

The term deflation can also be used to describe a decrease in the money supply or a decrease in prices. Dropping prices is price deflation. Price deflation can be caused by monetary deflation. In the case of prices on electronics however, the decrease is more likely attributed to productivity gains rather than monetary deflation - manufacturers find cheaper ways of producing the electronics.

"If gas prices go up, is that inflation?
If home prices drop, is that deflation?"

If you measure inflation/deflation by measuring the supply of money (monetary inflation/deflation) then the answer is independent of such consequences as the price of any consumer good.

"If wages rise, is that inflation?"
"If the dollar devalues, is that inflation?"
"How the hell you figure this crap out?"

Well, if you increase the supply of money, eventually every dollar will buy less.

152   astrid   2006 Apr 12, 11:54am  

frank,

Thank you for that.

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