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I don't even know what to think.


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2006 Apr 11, 4:31pm   15,988 views  175 comments

by surfer-x   ➕follow (0)   💰tip   ignore  

Bubble Conspiracists Unite!

Ok, so a friend I've know since grade school forwarded me this jibber jabber bull$hit email. At first read it is just pure crap, but as I read on I realized that this embodies current Amerika; I believe this thinking to be the origins of the real estate bubble.

We deserve it. It being many things. We as Amerikans deserve cheap gas, big massive asses and cars, and the ability to borrow Chuck, borrow.

Let it rip.

Trolls need not apply.

Copyright Surfer-X
All rights reserved, all wrongs denied.

"GAS WAR - an idea that WILL work

This was originally sent by a retired Coca Cola executive It came from one of his engineer buddies who retired from Halliburton. It's worth your consideration.

Join the resistance!!!! I hear we are going to hit close to $ 4.00 a gallon by next summer and it might go higher!! Want gasoline prices to come down? We need to take some intelligent, united action. Phillip Hollsworth offered this good idea. This makes MUCH MORE SENSE than the "don't buy gas on a certain day" campaign that was going around last April or May!

The oil companies just laughed at that because they knew we wouldn't continue to "hurt" ourselves by refusing to buy gas. It was more of an inconvenience to us than it was a problem for them. BUT, whoever thought of this idea, has come up with a plan that can really work. Please read on and join with us!

By now you're probably thinking gasoline priced at about $1.50 is super cheap. Me too! It is currently $2.79 for regular unleaded in my town. Now that the oil companies and the OPEC nations have conditioned us to think that the cost of a gallon of gas is CHEAP at $1.50 - $1.75, we need to take aggressive action to teach them that BUYERS control the marketplace..not sellers With the price of gasoline going up more each day, we consumers need to take action. The only way we are going to see the price of gas come down is if we hit someone in the pocketbook by not purchasing their gas! And, we can do that WITHOUT hurting ourselves.

How?

Since we all rely on our cars, we can't just stop buying gas. But we CAN have an impact on gas prices if we all act together to force a price war.

Here's the idea: For the rest of this year, DON'T purchase ANY gasoline from the two biggest companies (which now are one), EXXON and MOBIL. If they are not selling any gas, they will be inclined to reduce their prices. If they reduce their prices, the other companies will have to follow suit. But to have an impact, we need to reach literally millions of Exxon and Mobil gas buyers. It's really simple to do! Now, don't wimp out on me at this point...keep reading and I'll explain how simple it is to reach millions of people!!

I am sending this note to 30 people. If each of us send it to at least ten more (30 x 10 = 300) ... and those 300 send it to at least ten more (300 x 10 = 3,000)..and so on, by the time the message reaches the sixth group of people, we will have reached over THREE MILLION consumers. If those three million get excited and pass this on to ten friends each, then 30 million people will have been contacted! If it goes one level further, you guessed it..... THREE HUNDRED MILLION PEOPLE!!!

Again, all you have to do is send this to 10 people. That's all! (If you don't understand how we can reach 300 million and all you have to do is send this to 10 people.... Well, let's face it, you just aren't a mathematician. But I am . so trust me on this one.) :-)

How long would all that take? If each of us sends this e-mail out to ten more people within one day of receipt, all 300 MILLION people could conceivably be contacted within the next 8 days!!! I'll bet you didn't think you and I had that much potential, did you! Acting together we can make a difference.

If this makes sense to you, please pass this message on. I suggest that we not buy from EXXON/MOBIL UNTIL THEY LOWER THEIR PRICES TO THE $1.30 RANGE AND KEEP THEM DOWN. THIS CAN REALLY WORK"

#housing

« First        Comments 121 - 160 of 175       Last »     Search these comments

121   Peter P   2006 Apr 12, 5:54am  

they have a lot of weird stuff I’ve never seen anywhere else, particulary various shellfish or seafood items

They have Australian lobsters! At 6+ lb, you need a few friends to help out.

Try as much weird stuff as possible. I think they have at least 4 different types of crab.

122   Peter P   2006 Apr 12, 6:03am  

Those places sound great. I’ve got to try them once I make it to the BA.

Perhaps we can share an 8lb Aussie lobster? ;)

123   Peter P   2006 Apr 12, 6:07am  

I’d love to. I really liked the lobster sashimi I had in Shanghai.

Koi Palace definitely has lobster sashimi, although they may not have the right kind of soy sauce and wasabi.

124   Peter P   2006 Apr 12, 6:08am  

SQT, forgot... congrats!

125   Peter P   2006 Apr 12, 6:12am  

If it is ever sunny again a lobster/clam bake would be a smashing way to celebrate the demise of the real estate bubble.

IF. It is a very big "if".

126   Peter P   2006 Apr 12, 6:17am  

I hear the BA is even more soggy than we are, and we’ve been raining non-stop for days.

Rain does not bother me too much. But it was pouring the other day in the freeway. Everyone was driving 30mph suddenly.

127   astrid   2006 Apr 12, 6:18am  

Oh heck, if that’s the case, we’ll invade NomadToons2’s new place in Tennessee. Who wants country ham, okra, and southern BBQ?

128   Peter P   2006 Apr 12, 6:21am  

Who wants country ham, okra, and southern BBQ?

I am in!

I don’t know about okra

What's wrong with okra?

129   Peter P   2006 Apr 12, 6:24am  

I think I had some that was poorly prepared. It can be slimy if not properly cooked.

It is slimy. But the texture is quite unique.

130   astrid   2006 Apr 12, 6:30am  

I think you're in the BA, right? I can't imagine how low gym participation rate would be elsewhere in the country.

131   Peter P   2006 Apr 12, 6:32am  

I can’t believe so few take advantage of it.

Many employees have free gym in or around their home.

132   astrid   2006 Apr 12, 6:43am  

I wonder when the american government will get serious against high fructose corn syrup and partially hydrogenated oils.

133   Peter P   2006 Apr 12, 6:48am  

We’re not so lucky, so I’d looooove it myself. I run in my neighborhood and use weights that we have a home, but a full gym would be lovely.

It is a matter of choice. If you rent (or own) a house, most likely you will not have a "free" gym. But if you are willing to put up with common walls, you may enjoy "free" gym in the apartment complex.

134   Peter P   2006 Apr 12, 6:52am  

The last apartment complex I lived in didn’t have one, so I haven’t had the enjoyment of a free gym. Though I do have the benefit of a neighborhood with good running trails, so it all evens out in the end.

Honestly, I much prefer a trail with a good view in a safe neighborhood.

135   astrid   2006 Apr 12, 6:57am  

These food additives are worse than tobacco products. At least everyone knows why cigarettes are bad. Most people don’t even think about the impact of a piece of cake with hydrogenated oil or the cumulative effect of fructose from soft drinks.

They also impact kids. Most of the foods most attractive to kids have these ingredients. They start getting sick from the food before they are able to know better.

136   requiem   2006 Apr 12, 6:58am  

My work comes with a free gym membership, but I prefer to get my exercise outside of the gym (play with the local soccer club, etc.).

A friend told me about the state of things in Kansas. Apparently the only thing to do there is go to the local Hometown Buffet and eat. Then, they go play softball. (Which, you have to admit, isn't overly energetic.) the end result? Almost every block has a Hometown Buffet and a sports medicine clinic, and the people are still.. well... "cornfed".

137   astrid   2006 Apr 12, 6:59am  

What kills me is that until very recently, people bought foods with partially hydrogenate oil in the belief that they’re healthier than butter.

138   Peter P   2006 Apr 12, 7:01am  

What kills me is that until very recently, people bought foods with partially hydrogenate oil in the belief that they’re healthier than butter.

LARD!

139   astrid   2006 Apr 12, 7:07am  

maybe we should invest in lard in anticipation of new FDA guidelines

140   Peter P   2006 Apr 12, 7:12am  

Are the fat kids just living on fast food?

Probably. As a kid, I ate 4 meals a day and I was not fat. I never had a sweet tooth though.

141   Peter P   2006 Apr 12, 7:14am  

I got fatter only after I started driving everywhere. :(

142   astrid   2006 Apr 12, 7:19am  

SoftestLanding,

Oh, I don’t know. But I bet a lot of realtors will be happy to help you.
(not investment advice)

143   Randy H   2006 Apr 12, 7:21am  

SoftestLanding,

Download this, study it, show it to your realtor(tm) and ask him/her why you should listen to them instead.

144   HARM   2006 Apr 12, 7:26am  

SQT, why is being debt free so special? We still have to buy food and pay for other necessities. These are all streams of negative cashflow, just like debt repayment.

SQT answered:

I think it’s psychological. To be able to allocate funds where we want to vs. where we have to. Obviously there will always be necessities, but as long as we can budget ourselves an keep our purchases well within our means, we don’t have to pay interest on them. Debt free to me means that we can save and make cash purchases rather than put everything on credit.

I agree and would go one further: it's not just psychological. Being debt-free gives you much more power over your life and the freedom to make life/career choices you otherwise could not.

If you're $100K in hock thanks to B-school student loans, plus another $600K in hock thanks to your San Diego 2Bdm condo, are you going to take a job sabbatical and join the Peace Corps for a couple of years? I don't think so. For that matter, are you going to quit and retrain with the long-term aim of getting a better job/career, which has the potential to make you happier or materially better off in the future (but much poorer in the short run)? Not likely. And as a result of your artificially limited choices, both you and society suffers.

You're a slave to your debt, plain and simple. Either you pay down your debts or otherwise get rid of them and voluntarily downsize your lifestyle, or you stay where you are --enslaved to your creditors. And that's just the way the Fed/Pols/lenders want it.

145   LILLL   2006 Apr 12, 7:28am  

Don't worry ...all the FBs will be on the 'grief diet' soon enough!

146   astrid   2006 Apr 12, 7:30am  

"all the FBs will be on the ‘grief diet’ soon enough!"

is that the all Yoshinoya diet?

147   HARM   2006 Apr 12, 7:33am  

Partially hydrogenated fats and HF corn syrup will be dealt with only when the food industry sees them as unprofitable to use. Unfortunately, they are still seome of the cheapest ways to produce foods with long shelf life. The one glimmer of hope is a groundswell against these two by consumers.

Excellent point, Skibum.

Unfortunately, there aren't really any good substitutes for hydrogenated fats in terms of it's ability to provide long-shelf life for packaged foods (yet). Of course, resistance to decay on the shelf is one of the reasons why it is so bad for you --it takes forever to break down in the body, and easily converts to artery spackle. I'm not so sure about HF corn syrup --I see no reason why it cannot easily be replaced right now with Splenda or Stevia.

148   Randy H   2006 Apr 12, 7:37am  

Just a counter-point to being "debt free":

I agree with what HARM and SQT say, except for circumstances when you:

* have all or most of the cash (rather liquidity) to pay the debts should something unexpected come up

* are fairly optimistic about your ability to service the debt, and your optimism is reasonable (for example a new grad can expect their salary to go up by inflation or faster for the first few years of employment)

* the interest rates are low, probably fixed, and you can earn equal or greater amount with low or similar risk by putting your money to work elsewhere

Example, when we bought my wife's new car recently, I found that the cost difference between a new car with factory financing (0.9% fixed 3year loan) and buying the car outright, even assuming we'd buy a used model in that case, we still come out slightly ahead by using the debt. If we get in trouble, we'll just pay off the loan, but using the loan we purchased a brand new car for slightly cheaper (total net present value) than buying a used one outright.

149   FormerAptBroker   2006 Apr 12, 7:38am  

SF Woman wrote:
"Does anyone have suggestions? Batteries? Tie to grid and just put in an automatic propane back-up generator?"

Stay away from batteries (big PITA)... Propane or diesel generators are nice, but if you just want to run a fridge and some pumps the best bang for the buck comes from a couple little Honda gas generators (that's what all my friends with homes in the mountains use)...

150   Peter P   2006 Apr 12, 7:41am  

I agree with Randy. I definitely take advantage of good financing deals.

151   HARM   2006 Apr 12, 7:43am  

@Randy H,

Points taken. Some debt at different points in our lives is unavoidable, or even beneficial, per your interest rate-ROI arbitrage scenario. This however assumes that your average schmo is:

1. Financially literate enough to understand the above.
2. Intelligent/self-restrained enough not to get into debt beyond reason, or take excessive risks to buy frivolous crap.

152   HARM   2006 Apr 12, 7:43am  

Randy H & Peter P do NOT = typical American debtor

153   Peter P   2006 Apr 12, 7:54am  

The new SUVs have backup cameras that show what is behind you on the GPS screen.

This is a good feature. GPS should become standard.

154   Randy H   2006 Apr 12, 7:59am  

Randy H & Peter P do NOT = typical American debtor

I'm the sort that gets more excited about a good arbitrage opportunity than the superbowl. That isn't typical?

155   HARM   2006 Apr 12, 8:06am  

I’m the sort that gets more excited about a good arbitrage opportunity than the superbowl. That isn’t typical?

Umm... suuuure. :roll:

156   Peter P   2006 Apr 12, 8:07am  

Two points regarding debt:

1. Never use long-term debt to facilitate short-term consumption
2. Understand the risks involved in leveraged investments

157   Randy H   2006 Apr 12, 8:15am  

1. Never use long-term debt to facilitate short-term consumption

It's just a real good idea to try to match durations wherever possible. Don't get a 5 year loan on a car you'll want to sell in 3 years, etc. If you need to to afford it, you can't.

This raises an interesting issue that has come up as I've been scenario-stress testing "the Bubblizer". I believe I've quantitatively (re)proven the credit-bubble cause for rising house prices. (I say that sarcastically...I should have known better).

I can demonstrate that, because of tax benefits (both interest deduction and no cap gains), you are better off as a home debtor paying off minimal principal, owning minimal equity, and staying in your house for the fewest number of years. What!?! That is crazy talk, you say.

Well, the problem is that there is no priced-in risk adjustment for "what about if/when the music stops?" I tried to do this in the last version, but it's tough to do without Fewlesh-style (Fewlesh is an uber-quant semi-regular poster here) full simulation. In my model, you still are always better using crappy financing because taxes favor you being irresponsible.

I'm going to uninstall Excel.

158   Peter P   2006 Apr 12, 8:19am  

It’s just a real good idea to try to match durations wherever possible. Don’t get a 5 year loan on a car you’ll want to sell in 3 years, etc. If you need to to afford it, you can’t.

I agree.

159   Peter P   2006 Apr 12, 8:22am  

I’m going to uninstall Excel.

Well, I am the kind of person who will optimize a model until it is useless.

160   astrid   2006 Apr 12, 9:13am  

"I’m the sort that gets more excited about a good arbitrage opportunity than the superbowl. That isn’t typical?"

Of course that's typical, most Americans find football boring, obscure and incomprehensible.

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