patrick.net

FAB,

Maybe this fellow could establish a charitable trust for the car.

Robert Coté said:

Prop 13 correctly protects people and businesses against arbitrary government distortions of the market. That’s the point of government regulation in the first place isn’t it?

I wasn't aware that government is there to "protect' us from itself or market fluctuations. I don't trust the government to police itself, nor do I "need" protection from a well functioning free market. That's not my definition of good government. Personally, I thought government regulations were (among other things) to protect people and the environment against externalities (aka "tragedy of the commons") caused by reckless business behavior guided solely by the profit motive.

astrid said:

Prop 13 advocates are basically making the same arguments as proponents of rent control. They allow people who got in first to stay put, even if greater utility and revenue can be derived by people who came in later and got locked out.

Robert, do you defend rent control?

Thank you. If there were no easy-credit induced housing bubble or anti-development NIMBY laws to begin with, property taxes would be reasonable and there'd be no public outcry for government "protection" from government's high property taxes.

One thing I do agree with Robert on, this state will spend every dime it gets its hands on and then some. We already have a "protection mechansim" for that though: elections. Now if only we could get the public to pay attention once in a while and vote for candidates who understand this, instead of candidates who promise them a free lunch, demagogues who play racial politics, etc.

Randy H,

As I see it, big state government face two major problems:

(1) administrative problems for the government: too many conflicting interest, too much complexity

(2) voter apathy and unwillingness to identify with the state.

astrid Says:

"You and other California property owners can take that Prop 13 with you to the grave. You’re ignoring the fact that these house owners are now a hell of a lot richer in equity, and they can easily afford taxes based on their current net worth."

You can't use net worth to pay property taxes...

I think that Prop. 13 is unfair in that the taxation is unequal, but as an apartment owner I like the fact that rising property taxes won't force me to sell a building…

There are many older widows living in Pacific Heights and Presidio Heights paying under $2K a year in taxes. It doesn't seem fair that we should raise their taxes to $50,000 a year + just because the home their late husband bought for $50K in the 1960's that was selling for $500K in the early 90's is worth $5mm today…

In the last 5 years the value of my apartments has doubled (gone up by millions of dollars) but my cash flow has gone DOWN (rents are down a little and expenses are up a little)...

HARM, Randy, Robert, etc.,

Once you guys start thinking governments are truly irredeemable, even at the local level, then my arguments become pointless.

I know I'm getting into hot water here, but California is ungovernable due to it's overly liberal status. There are few heavily liberal areas in the world that aren't in some sort of economic problem. Look at France for example. They are probably a decade further ahead than California. The cost of housing leaves young families and especially immigrants out cold.They also have very heavy unemployment because of the same reasons Ca may very well encounter- the out migration of manufactoring and even many white collar jobs to lower cost regions like Romania and Yugoslavia. This causes a lot of tension, and you see where it got them this summer. Not to say this would ever happen here, but it is entirely possible with the scales so heavily leaning to one side. I'm not conservative, but believe you need elements of both parties working together. This isn't the case in CA and as a result things are out of hand. A totally liberal population means NOTHING ever gets passed because anything that government does is seen as hostile.

I think that Prop. 13 is unfair in that the taxation is unequal, but as an apartment owner I like the fact that rising property taxes won’t force me to sell a building…

This sounds reasonable to me. Why not just cap property taxes at 1% and let the "assessed value" ebb and flow with the market? Everyone's tax basis will be the same, therefore "fair". If prices (and tax assessments) start shooting up due to insane lending practices and reckless speculation, then the public should direct its anger at the culprits: irresponsible lenders, specuvestors, the government that incentivizes this behavior. If prices start shooting up due to anti-development NIMBY laws, then the public can direct its anger at local officials or (if approved by directly by voters) ITSELF.

FAB,

But that's how any reasonably efficient market works, it uses dollars amount to approximate need and resource allocation. These widows have 2 options: (1) move out and get a huge windfall or (2) do a reverse mortgage and stay there til death. I don't think that's such a horrible prospect compared to the young families currently priced out of SF due to price illiquidity.

Also FAB, as a good businessman, if your apartments are yielding significantly poorer relative to their value on the open market, that probably means it's a good time to sell and roll the money into a different venture. I know cap gain/income taxes complicate the picture somewhat, but shouldn't that be the general idea of an open, efficient market?

Nomad,

I think you should replace the “liberal” in your 10:54 am post with the words “stonily conservative” or “reactionary.” The people in power are totally unreceptive to new ideas, that’s why it got so bad.

:P

Astrid,
I totally agree. I recall when Prop 13 was mentioned to Arnold, he mentioned that whoever brought it up again would have to" do 50 pushups". I think politicians here are scared to do anything because anything new will likely cause the masses to erupt in protest. Ever notice every time a new measure goes up, the yards het packed full of " No to this", "No to that!", etc etc?

HARM, Randy, Robert, etc.,

Once you guys start thinking governments are truly irredeemable, even at the local level, then my arguments become pointless.

Astrid,

Please re-read my statements above more carefully ("tragedy of the commons", etc.) I am not arguing that government has NO purpose or is irredeemable. I am agreeing with you that government cannot (and should not) be used to "protect" certain groups from price swings and other economic fluctuations in a functioning free market.

The more "fair" the government tries to make markets (by imposing price/wage caps, rent control, incentivizing RE speculation, NIMBY laws, agricultural subsidies, punitive tariffs, etc.), the LESS "fair" markets become. Keep taxation fair and asset-class/age/gender/race nuetral and spend it on the stuff people expect government to do (protect civil rights, enforce the law, protect borders, provide education, ensure clean air/water, etc.).

HARM,

Yes, I know most people here actually find governments to be useful.

But the opinion seems to be that it's badly degraded and trapped in an ever worsening cycle of ineffectiveness and capture by special interest. And there's no way to alter that cycle.

I wasn't necessarily disagreeing with that assessment, it just makes me sad to think that it was so, precisely because a government is able to do so much good in correcting the problems of a totally free market.

nomadtoons2 Says:

"I know I’m getting into hot water here, but California is ungovernable due to it’s overly liberal status. There are few heavily liberal areas in the world that aren’t in some sort of economic problem."

Most of the people I know in San Francisco could be described as "very well educated liberals". The problem I see is that most of these people think that the rest of the population is poor only because of "racism" "classism" or "not enough education" (they have never really known any "poor" people). These smart liberals have worked their ass off their entire lives getting good grades high SAT scores and promotions at work (while doing volunteer work in their spare time) and don't understand that a huge part of the population is not like them and tries to do as little as possible every day…

A good friend from grad school had a real wake up call when he went from managing a bunch of super smart overachievers at McKinsey to managing a bunch of stoners at a tech firm in 2000. The kids working for him at McKinsey all had 4.0 GPAs, went to top 10 schools and would do anything to get good letters of recommendation to top 5 grad schools. The stoner losers were the best a start up firm could find in the 2000 hiring boom and would do anything possible to avoid working...

I recall when Prop 13 was mentioned to Arnold, he mentioned that whoever brought it up again would have to” do 50 pushups”. I think politicians here are scared to do anything because anything new will likely cause the masses to erupt in protest.

@nomadtoons2,

Yes, for most voters here, Prop. 13 is a sacred cow, and politicians (wisely) view it as a third rail that will destroy them if they dare touch it. It will remain this way unless/until enough voters recognize the imbalances it has created and demand change.

newsfreak,

"I agree, like the illegal aliens, we may not need so many NEW laws, as we need enforce laws on the books."

Precisely, if people don't like a law, they should get together and change it. Giving amnesty for lawbreakers is no way to run a nation of laws.

But the opinion seems to be that it’s badly degraded and trapped in an ever worsening cycle of ineffectiveness and capture by special interest. And there’s no way to alter that cycle.

_nod_ to astrid & newsfreak

A huge of the problem to me is an endlessly expanding government that (a) refuses to enforce many of it's own laws (anti-corruption/monopoly laws, immigration laws, etc.), and (b) incessantly demands MORE POWER to encroach upon my civil rights, confiscate my property, tells me what to eat/smoke/fuck, etc. The far Left is really no better than the far Right in this regard, IMO. Both sides are "Big Government" when it suits them.

I don't think I'm an anarchist for advocating reigning in government power and mis-spending when it gets too large and too corrupt. I just recognize bad government for what it frequently is: a cause of my misery, not a solution.

Newsfreak,

How's the weather where you are? Around DC, this spring is shaping up to be the prettiest one I can remember. A little stormy, but at least no more drought problems.

I do not believe government is irredeemable. I believe that governments become entrenched; rather interested become entrenched, and governments exist to serve entrenched interests. From time-to-time, the whole thing needs to be mixed up or it dies a slow, painful death. I'm not a philosopher, so this is where the more ethereal types take up arguments about the nature of man and such.

I also do not agree with the ideological correlation that nomadtoons proposed (CA is too liberal to be governed), or even astrid's re-framing of that statement. Using countries as analogies is a stretch. The EU countries are still independent sovereignties, only with a de facto pegged currency and some reciprocal labor and trade agreements. It's far from a federal union.

There are counter examples to the govern-ability and representation problem directly within the US. Take two big-states that split almost exactly in political ideologies: IL and OH. At best, IL vacillates wildly between representing intense Urban/Suburban interests and Rural/Agricultural interests. This state should be at least two states, Metro-Chicago and Agri-Rural, each managing to their own best goals and represented by those championing their own needs and interests. Similarly, OH should be 3-5 states, dividing the rust-belt from the agri-rural from the metros. In the absence of that, you have a cluster-F of a state that invests the public good in things like collectible coins. No excuse. A complete and utter failure of government.

FormerAptBroker,
It seems to me that many of these so called" highly educated" folks also like to project a lot. Whether they say it or not, I know a lot of them consider themselves somewhat superior to people with the same education in another state. I recall after having just moved here, I still had a fairly strong accent and people stopped me all the time to ask me where I was from. I could tell these people anything sometimes. Often the response was along the lines of " boy you were smart getting out of there." It was as if I was a refugee from a third world country.
The level of lazy techies I've met are similiar to the ones you mentioned above. I quite agree.

Randy,

I will go with the ethereal type and venture that public education can go some ways to solving the twin problems of bad government and apathetic/stupid voters. People nowadays, in all walks of life, unthinkingly repeats a lot of platitudes without thinking through the consequences of what they're saying. If all people were taught to think more clearly and more outside the box, maybe, just maybe, we can do better as a society.

The other part is, absolutely, we need smaller and more responsive governments that spends its energy in governing, instead of the re-election as goal mentality of current public officials.

But the current system is so complex, it's hard to know where to start. My intuition is to look to the Progressives. Not because I agree with them on the all the substantive issues, but because they seem genuinely interested in change and forming a coherent policy. Nontheless, positive change just seems so hard when there are so many layers of entrenched interests and such an ignorant and apathetic public.

Nomad,

Those folks have to do something to justify living in their $800,000, 1,100 sq ft shacks. :)

astrid,

You stated the education problem quite well on my blog. We need to teach basic logical reasoning/critical thinking, or we are doomed. And in this hyper-complex world, we need to teach at least basic economics and statistics to every single high school student, no exceptions. The cost of democracy. If you want the right to vote on bond issues, then you don't get the privilege of being ignorant. Otherwise, democracy is the wrong system of government, just let me run everything, lol.

I used to be very progressive, and I was involved in lots of third-party kind of stuff (although I was never what would be called big-L liberal). I have become much more pragmatic as I saw my idealism evaporate along with the years of my life. It's a cliche, but it's also my reality. I now just try to force all public debate through an apolitical lens, so we can discuss the issues and not the ideologies.

HARM
Great graphic...you are one sick man....

As far as government, it was Thomas Jefferson that mentioned that no democracy can reasonable function beyond 200 years or so without a major overhaul- essnetially scrapping it all and getting back to basics. While impossible to do now, I can see where he does have a point. The system works for a while, then gets clogged with legislation that makes it clumsy and inefficient.

Randy,

"I used to be very progressive, and I was involved in lots of third-party kind of stuff (although I was never what would be called big-L liberal). I have become much more pragmatic as I saw my idealism evaporate along with the years of my life."

That is really sad observation. And even though I'm not to that point yet, I can definitely see where you're coming from.

Nomad,

"The system works for a while, then gets clogged with legislation that makes it clumsy and inefficient."

A part of the problem is how people deal with psuedo-property rights. Prop 13, rent control, ag subsidies - these are all government distributions that become so entrenched that the system would largely break apart if they were withdrawn too quickly. They also pit the interest groups against each other, and especially against the faceless taxpayers from whom their pet project is collecting.

This is one of the reasons why I'm against subsidies and tax breaks that function as subsidies. They produce adverse results and entrenched interests, then it becomes next to impossible to ween off the entrenched interests.

I would be scared of the more radical solutions to equilibrium. Most revolutions happen because things have gotten so bad for a group of people that they've got nothing to lose. Things have to get very bad for that eventuality. I hope it doesn't happen in my lifetime.

The American and the French revolution are rather unique in that they were founded by political idealists -- and they still stumbled quite a bit before finding their footing. No guarantee we'll be lucky again.

Astrid-

Well, conservatives are idealists too. Conservative idealism can be sorted into four main categories.

The first, which is mostly economic, believes that the liberal welfare state of the 1960's is a destructive force in our society and should therefore be dismantled. Although I am a conservative and therefore biased, I think the evidence for this POV is pretty compelling. Public housing projects, ADFC, etc. -- these things were unmitigated disasters. This type of conservative idealism is on the wane these days becuase most of its goals have already been accomplished. It may rise again if liberals attempt to revive, or augment, the welfare state, but for now it is in hibernation mode. A lot of liberals unfailrly characterize this form of conservative idealism as a desire to roll back the New Deal and take us back inot the the guilded age, but I think this charge is overblown and very unfair. No one has ever called for an end to unemployment compensation, disability insurance, etc.; today's conservatives accept the social safety net as a fact of life, they just think it should be made as unpleasant as possible in order to force people to work for a living.

The second form of conservative idealism is not really idealism, it is a form of pragmatism. Conservatives think that some liberal initiatives, such as social security and single-payer medicine, are good ideas intended to address genuine social problems. However, these thigns are either unworkable in practice (see, e.g. Social Security) or have costs that outweigh the beneifts (many conservatives fear that national health care plan will function about as well as the DMV or the post office, which is to say not very well.) Therefore, conservatives are always on the lookout for private alterantives to these government programs, or at least a way to inject some elements of competition, accountablility, etc. into them. Social Conservatives see security privitazation, for example, as the best response to an impending crisis. We are well aware that some people are unlucky/shortsighted/stupid and will actually fare worse under a privatized system, but we think that on balance most people will benefit.

The third form of conservative idealism is social. Many conservatives believe that the destruction of the family, the de-emphaisis of religion, and trends such as divorce and illegitmacy have profound and terrible social costs. Conservatives basically want to roll back the clock and reverse these trends. This is probably the most idealistic form of conservative philosophy. Liberals sometimes denegrate these social conservatives as people who "hate gays," wish to keep women "barefoot and pregnant," etc., but I think this is a very unfair and unreasonable criticism.

The last type of conservative is one who believes that government should keep out of the daily life of the average person. President Bush is one of these conservatives. It is why you do not see him calling a press conference whenever a good piece of economic news comes out, rushing to the scene of every car accident and promising federal aid, etc. He believes that these things are none of government's business; the President's job is to oversee the cabinet departments and the military, he is not the Great Father of the nation who will wipe away every tear and eas every burden.

Actually, there is a fifth type of conservative idealist. A lot of your conservative intellectuals fall into this category. These people beleive that conservative priciples can be used to transform the lives of the poor and oppresed for the better. The neocons are the most obvious example of that. They believe that we can help the people of Iraq by liberating them from dictatorship and bringing freedom, democracy, and free market capitalism to that nation. I myself believe this, and think that in 200 years, Iraq will be seen as one of America's proudest achievements. Other conservative intellecutals have similar idealistic notions regarding domestic politics. The proponents of school vochers, for example, believe that poor children will benefit from a competitive educational marketplace.

Anyway, there are plenty of conservative idealists. In fact, as someone who is very active in GOP poliitcs, I would say that most conservatives fall into one, and usually more than one, of the above categories. The MSM is always loathe to portray conservatives as idealsits, choosing instead to label us as selfish, bigots, fools who vote against our own self-interest becuase we are easily distracted by wedge issues, etc., but IMO the truth is that conservatives are very idealistic.

Here's a 'What If'

What if the bankers understand that adjusting ARM will cause a calamity on their hands and a high inventory of homes on their books and do not adjust the ARMs as high as they should? In effect, they'd be less profitable than they could be if all the adjusted rates were collectable, but it would be for their own good. They would knock off some of the lunatic fringe, but could keep collecting interest on a larger percentage.

Is this a possibility?

Wow, sorry about the extreme length of that last post. I am very passionate about this subject and think, as one of the few self-identified Republicans here, that it is my duty to explain my views fully since I am in the minority.

smb_gaiden,

Uh, no.

That is considered "charity" and it's something that banks just don't do. Besides the loans have already been packaged and shipped off to investors via GSE's so unless you can get a "note" from all of them saying it's O.K for you to cut in line I can't see that happening. I don't mean to be rude but.......

Joe,

No apologies needed. I, and I'm sure others, appreciate your thoughtful post. The wonderful thing about forums like this is we are all talking to one another in a reasoned manner. This is one of the few bright points that break through my daily cynicism and cause me to be optimistic about the future. From what I've read here over the past 1.5 years, the community of Patrick.net would operate reasonably well as a political coalition -- at least much better than what we're stuck with today.

DinOR,

Negotiating 101

Just a reminder ;)

Joe Schmoe,

No problem. Although you left one type of conservative out; the RINO, or Republican In Name Only!

I'll be honest here, when you're from Cicero IL politics is about getting the street light fixed or having the clout to make sure your street gets plowed first after a snowstorm so a lot of this simply escapes me but I like where you're going!

Randy H,

Thanks for the heads up! I will take exception though b/c I have cold called Ohio extensively over the years and it (more than any other state I can think of) has some parity between the various towns. To wit: Sandusky, Toledo, Cinci, Dayton, Columbus, Cleavland and even Akron. Most of these towns have fairly equal populations. I realize southern OH is like going back in time compared to northern OH but in OR for instance we have Portland and then there's the rest of the state. Believe me it is just that polarized. Usually by the time we get off to go to the polls no one is waiting with baited breath to see how OR goes. Has anyone every won the Presidency with out carrying OH?

Joe Schmoe,

Thanks for your honest reply. In the end, we’re here and trying to talk things out sensibly. That fact alone may mean we share more in common with each other than we do with the average American.

A couple critiques, and please reply if you think my facts or ideas are flawed in an obvious manner.

My biggest problem is that while conservative critiques of New Deal or Great Society era policies are valid, their own alternatives aren’t particularly practical. Recent efforts at privatization and deregulation have largely worked out unhappily. Frank Quattrone, Halliburton’s lucrative no bid contracts, and California’s blackouts have been consequences. The Conservative solution seems to end up with more money initially for everyone, and most especially for big multinational corporations.

Private solutions to poverty, healthcare, and unemployment are not very optimal compared to public ones. American healthcare eats up more GDP than other industrialized nations. Charities are funded in large part by rich people’s tax exemptions and are usually more interested in preserving the principle than doing good. Individuals do take advantage of social safety nets, but that’s a reason to reform the system, not to give it up.

As for social conservatives, they’re interested in meddling with my life. I cannot agree with them, simply out of self interest. They also tend to project an idealized past that may or may not actually have ever existed, and which is unlikely to appear, given America’s economic contemporary economic challenges.

Also, Conservatives lost a lot of credibility with me for the way they defended Dubya. The Bush administration has too many examples of sweet heart deals to favored corporations, entered into too many costly foreign adventures and tax cuts, and been caught lying/concealing/fudging on matters of this nation’s vital interests too much to go unnoticed. I can’t take the Conservatives as a group seriously until they do some serious self examination and cut the corruption out.

I feel that real progressives have criticized the Democratic party’s errors as harshly as they’ve criticized the Republicans for their wrongs. That is why I’m still with them. They’re still a very small portion of the overall population, so they’re not in it for the power. They care more about doing right than being right. I just can’t say that about the leadership of the two major parties.

newsfreak,

The daffodils started blooming about 3 weeks ago and they're just about done. Cherry blossoms have already peaked. Right now the crab apples are peaking, the dogwoods are starting to put on a show and serviceberries are coming along any moment.

PeterB,

I was thinking about the critiques of the downsides to the programs, mainly abuse and encouraging a culture of dependence. Those abuses do exist.

As for problems of poverty and social justice...I'm of two minds about this, but I don't think it can be solved by government giving out money.

However, I'm probably to the right of most progressives on this issue.

newsfreak,

Blueberries! How nice. I've never seen any blueberries but there are a lot of serviceberries, which are supposed to be edible as well. There's also a lot of kousa dogwoods, which will flower in May/early June and produce some interesting looking fruits.

Bodybuilders are so disturbing looking.

SFwoman,
the reason that people in places like SF, etc ect- places that are all well above the national average in cost of living pay more is based entirely on cost of living alone. If cost of living was the only factors that determined the diffrences between CA and other states, California might as well be on another planet. Homes, assets, property, and wages all play a key part in what determines the amount of taxes any given California resident will pay. Thus, if they have a home worth 500k, they will be paying 5 times the taxes on something that the exact same person in another state,with the same job, education, and house would pay. The diffrence is that while a house in NC might cost 120k, the residents of that home likely make a combined income between 55-70k a year, or about half the price of a house. Take the avg salary in CA, around 65-80k, and a home that is 5 times the yearly salary, and you get people in the same income bracket who are paying MORE out of their pockets just because of their home's value than those in NC. So in essence, middle class residents in North carolina pay less in raw dollars than middle income residents in CA. is it fair? Not outwardly, but it is a consequence of uncontrolled housing prices and booms. This too is a perfect example of what happened when Prop 13 was passed and those that failed to see the potential repercussions it would bring.