patrick.net

I read a lot about “sheeple” here. It rings false to me. Arrogant psuedo-intellectual superiority. Like it or not, we are part of the herd. If you don’t accept it you’re likely to get trampled or left behind. None of us is nearly as strong as all of us.

Perhaps I'm just kidding myself, but I like to think there are two alternatives to being a sheeple: 1. shepherd, 2. wolf :-)

From the wisdom of Pink Floyd (Animals):

Most people fall into three categories:

* Pigs
* Dogs
* Sheep

I don't fancy the outcomes for any of the above. I'll chose to be one of those rare foxes and take my chances running from the farmer and his dogs, thanks.

Correct me if I’m wrong, I’m just learning from you economic geeks. In fiat money systems increased liquidity is the same as increased money supply, no? So facilitating the HELOC boom with low rates, easy credit, favorable cap gains laws, and inflated appraisals of paper “equity” is a neat way to expand the money supply?

Exactly. And because this method of money expansion is dificult for your average sheeple (sorry Garth ;-) ) to understand, it is a lot more "stealthy" than simply running the printing presses night and day, al-la Weimar Republic. Unfortunately, it is also notoriously difficult for the Fed to "steer" the money in any particular direction. The money gets lent to whomever and for whatever purpose the banks believe will maximize their return. So a lot of it ends up in sub-prime RE lending and the international carry trade.

...and by disavowing home owners of their equity savings accounts the Fed very effectively changes the overall money multiplier. It's a way to increase the money supply without printing any money.

Garth,

They're called sheeple because they're (1) easily lead (by shysters) (2) to their (financial) slaughter. This isn't pseudo-intellectual anything, it's everyday observation of people killing their financial future in an end stage pyramid scheme.

As for me, I'm going to be clam when RE fallout happens.

Those of you who fancy yourselves to be wolves, go ahead run wild.

I will continue to believe that the natural state of man, outside of society, "is solitary, poor, nasty brutish and short." But you are surely a better man, an ubermensch. (sp?)

@Garth,

You only read part of what I wrote. The other alternative is to be a shepherd. You can try to guide the flock away from the cliff of self destruction. It's a thankless and frustrating job, I know, but someone's got to do it. :mrgreen:

Die Schafleute

Literally sheep-people

Hey, isn't it about time for DinOR's "ideal buyer in a bear market" thread?

Garth,

Sounds like you're mixing your Locke and your Hobbes. Just because we live in society doesn't mean we're all equal. This isn't a binary choice.

SF Woman,

There are three material things I cherish. First, and foremost is the rocking chair I rock my son to sleep in.

Second, my computer and accompanying paraphernalia.

Third, my F150. I may not be very big around, but I'm short.

Overconfidence Bias, well established and studied.

It's 80% of all drivers believe themselves to be above average, which highlights the contradiction. I only know of one self-admitted below average driver, and he blogs here.

I only know of one self-admitted below average driver, and he blogs here.

Who is he?

Who is he?

I'd never reveal.

Since I also admit to be a below-average driver, perhaps you know two now. :)

arg. it won't post my stuff

SQT,

Now there are two people who get me, you and my psychiatric social worker.

I just have a visceral reaction to the contempt many Patrickans display for the general public. A little bit of moral superiority goes a very long way.

Spam or NotSpam: You make the call (reasonably sophisticated SpamBot, perhaps) --

http://www.realestateabc.com seems to be have better response and less clicks to find the house price when compared to zillow.com.

By the way I see the price trending down (Bay Area,CA) and the http://www.realestateabc.com pricing is more conservative than zillow.com pricing.

But chances are we all belong to one group or another. I’m ok with belonging to the Patrick.net herd.

True. While I'm revealing obvious bias by saying this, I believe that Patrick.net bloggers are --on average-- a good deal sharper and more aware of what's going on in the world than your average sheeple. This may sound arrogant or even elitist, but I believe it it's true, especially when you look at some of the occupations and education level of the regular contributors here (unless everyone's lying through their teeth, of course ;-)). For the most part, we appear to be a fairly intelligent self-selected group of contrarians and skeptics. Perhaps this holds true for most contrarians.

Contrarianism requires a careful mix of rare intellectual insight and a borderline neurotic need to do things the hard way.

I just have a visceral reaction to the contempt many Patrickans display for the general public. A little bit of moral superiority goes a very long way.

Garth,

The real question is, is this contempt justified by the real-life behavior and actions of the general public. Do you see evidence of mass/herd psychology with regard to the housing bubble, and the Dot.com bubble before that? How much actual time/thought does the average NAAVLP homedebtor give to the largest purchase of his/her life?

How good would you say the average American's critical thinking skills really are? Be honest.

Senator-X (aka Tailgunner-X) has never been able to prove that I am now or ever have been a troll. But it's obvious by now that I'm a fellow traveler.

That said, I'll offer up this little dish of shadenfraude for my friends at Patrick:

http://www.kcra.com/employmentadvice/8768224/detail.html

And, h/t to http://www.sacramentolanding.blogspot.com/

I hope the markups work.

Harm,

How good would you say the average American’s critical thinking skills really are? Be honest.

Not so much. I'm just not that sure about my own either.

I must admit I've learned a lot from Patrick.net.

New thread c/o DinOR: Negotiating 101

Sometimes the herd gets lost. Even highly intelligent "herds" of whales sometimes throw themselves upon the sand. Questioning the wisdom of the herd makes one an elitist wacko unless s/he turns out to be right, then s/he's labeled an opportunistic profiteer.

Randy,

I agree, but when in doubt I'll ususally tend to follow the herd. Call it survival instict.

Thanks everyone for making this thread a very good, enlightening discussion. I venture to say that we all have learned something new.

Garth,

The problem is the default outcome to not following the herd is getting eaten. Your survival instincts serve you well most of the time. It's just that many of us here think the herd is heading off into a drought-plagued valley, and we'd rather split off and head for water. I think the reason we all rally here is because we still want to be in a herd, just not one that's heading the wrong direction.

Garth,

None of us has all the answers, no matter how smart we may perceive ourselves to be. Nonetheless, this group's willingness to ask tough questions, think critically and doubt the prevailing commonly accepted "wisdom" does set us apart from the great majority.

Randy,

So true. Contrarians are most often portrayed in the general public as Don Quixotes, Cassandras, Chicken Littles or greedy sociopaths.

Astrid,

I'm not confused about my Hobbesian leanings. I'm just saying that Rousseau's noble savage lives somewhere with X's easter bunny and Nietzsche's superman.

I was under the impression that BA incomes were rising, not falling. Does anyone have some real numbers on this?

Garth,

Huh? What does the noble savage have to with being a contrarian? A contrarian lives in society but questions its conventional wisdom. A noble savage is untouched and unawared of society.

Anyways, I'll go with Randy H's metaphor about drought-plagued valley. He always has an economical and elegant way of stating the situation.

It’s just that many of us here think the herd is heading off into a drought-plagued valley

maybe lemmings are a more apposite metaphor ;)

astrid Says:

"As for me, I’m going to be clam when RE fallout happens."

Cool.

I'm going to eat clams when the RE fallout happens.

tail ender observations - i can't resist:

Garth Farkley
Fear and greed haven’t gone away. I am personally quite addicted to both emotions. They are the engines behind much of our decision making.

I will continue to believe that the natural state of man, outside of society, “is solitary, poor, nasty, brutish and short.”

not really true. not solitary, as people always group together in bands, from day 1 - as per palaeolothic man. makes survival more likely. only relatively poor, nasty, brutish and short - such simple societies are governed by complex rules and social histories, including rules of land use.

an early writer on studying australian aboriginals declared 'I can only say that l have always found the greatest abundance in their huts.'

The Original Affluent Society
Marshall Sahlins
http://www.eco-action.org/dt/affluent.html

oh, i was going to say the 'fear and greed' modern society is a lot less civilised in some ways...

Robert Coté Says:
There are three kinds of people in this game; follow the rules (shepherds), make the rules (wolves), don’t know there’s a game (sheep).

The shepherds washed their socks by night...

That's a reasonable metaphor in some ways, actually. I like John Reed's description of some investors as being 'the Thompson's gazelle of investing', meaning they are easy prey to shrewd operators of all kinds.

DinOR
What I take exception to is the way that the consumer allows him/herself to be manipulated from the “womb to the tomb”. Whay do we make it so easy for them to exploit us?

Free markets. Capitalism. Mercantilism.

I have a very low threshhold of tolerance to ads - I prefer to watch the 2 ad-free stations on free-to-air, or zap other channels whenever ads come on. A TiVo will do that for you, won't it? A guy here was setting up a system where your TiVo would receive a broadcast signal whenever ads came on and block them. I use /etc/hosts file blocking on my PC which cuts down spyware risks too... Europe seems to have far fewer billboards and things generally, which is a nice respite...

Headset Says:
Randy H, several of your posts show an anti free market bias. Free markets did not cause this bubble, easy money thanks to Uncle Sam did.

wow, coulda fooled me! anyway, they both caused it to some extent. other countries don't have govt backed mortgages, and yet they still have bubbles.

Would loans be so cheap if banks had only depositors money (”retail money”) to lend, and not from the Federal Reserve?

Yes, as in other countries, which have even worse bubbles, in some cases.

Randy H
This is because they equate standard of living with per capita GDP.

It's a rough approximation at best, and something of a specious 'randomisation' and averaging assumption, like the statistician drowning in a lake of average depth 4". For instance, huge amounts of money could be spent on warfare which creates a large GDP and bankrupts a country and puts everyone on food rationing. There are other measures proposed that try to take real QOL indicators into account, often to make a point against neoclassical economists assumptions and their dismissal of so-called 'externalities' . Environmental degradation, for example.