patrick.net

DinOR, Nomadtoons-

Me, too. Not so much out here, because my working class Chicago accent (I have the South Side version, because most of the people I grew up with in the NW suburbs originally hailed from the South Side; however, DinOR, I say Chic-aaahh-go, instead of Chic-awe-go.) has faded over the years, but I took a lot of heat for it out east when I was in school there.

In law school my classmates would literally snicker when I talked in class. (Maybe it was becuase what I had to say was stupid, but I prefer to think it was the accent.)

I once turned heads while speaking to the bank teller in NYC. Literally everyone in the bank started gaping at the guy with the strange accent.

The thing was, the Brooklyn and New Jersey accents were just as unique, and there were a few people with those jaw-clenching accents in our class too, but my Chicago accent was the one that seemed unusual to the New Yorkers, so I took a lot of shit. I didn't let it get to me, though. I also dressed differently -- shorter hair, more colorful casual clothes (literally more colorful, I wore the same stuff as everyone else but in shades other than black and grey) and wore more conservative buisness clothes on interviews (I once showed up wearing the exact same tie as the security guard at the front desk, exceprt that mine was silk!) I refused to dress differently, though, if the NY'ers didn't like it I didn't care. Well, I did get different work clothes but they were still on the conservative side.

I found the people out east to be extremely provincial and hostile to outsiders. They were also very, very cold at first, which was awful. I came to terms with it after a few years, and even started to enjoy living there, but it took a long time. My first year in NY was probably the worst year of my life because the people were such assholes. After that I warmed up to them, and they to me, but it took a long, long time. I would live there again but it would still be a culture shock.

Interstingly, I find California to be much, much more laid back than the east coast. Out here no one cares where you come from. There is not much real hostility toward non-natives, all are welcome in CA. Well, some people are not that enthusiastic about the Mexicans, but that is mostly a function of their massive numbers, if there weren't so many of them no one would care.

This is one of the things I really like about CA. The people here can be provincial too, and certainly smug and bigoted toward outsides, but generally I find them to be very accepting and laid back. It is ten times better than out east.

Astrid-

If we have to relocate, that'll be the reason why. I can afford a house, or private school tuition, but not both. In other areas you can afford both, or buy a house and send your kids to good public schools. If we have to leave that will be the reason, I like it here and I don't mind the other stuff.

Here's a link to a Malcolm Gladwell article on how society perceive people who are different.

http://gladwell.com/1996/1996_04_29_a_black.htm

Joe Schmoe,

I never lived in NY but after your describing it I can imagine the grief! I definitely have the "south side" version w/Chic-aaah-go. It's our nature to take and d-r-a-w o-u-t all of our vowels and trail off on our consonants. I remember a guest Sunday School teacher trying to break us of this habit and it was just hilarious! Must have felt like trying to teach little hoodlums how to be angelic.

Jeezus luvs me dis I knoooooow (I heard it on da radiooooo)!

I did not do my schooling in the US so I am not aware of this issue - is it possible to bring down the level of the whole class or school if a couple of students in a middle school or high school class (supposedly unprepared immigrant's kids )cannot understand the material being taught ? This is the wind I am getting when people here discuss about high school education in California.

Phil-

Well, it's usually not just a couple. And one kid can cause a whole lot of disruption if they don't behave properly.

SFWoman,

I get those too once in awhile and when I follow up with a call the mortgage broker either doesn't understand it himself or they "gloss over" huge swaths of the program! I try to stay on top of this "pay option" ARM deal b/c when the crash becomes more apparent I'd love to roost in an "up scale" neighborhood and just make everyone else there miserable.

I think that it is considered unPC to track kids and it is considered detrimental to kids to fail them or hold them back so you do get classes filled with kids who aren’t prepared to work at grade level and have parents who can’t/won’t help.

Sad.

Also, I think we need to brink discipline back into the classroom. Kids should be told that they will burn in hell if they misbehave.

Perhaps it could be that californians are favorable to outsiders because most californians are not from california.

SFWoman,

I went to a HS magnet program that essentially resegregates the "good students" from the rest of the student body. I know honors, IB, and AP have essentially been adopted by public schools throughout the country for a similar effect. Does SF proper have such programs?

Also, if we double class size from around 30 to 45, we can increase school capacility by 50% without a proportional increase in costs. I really doubt academic performance will be affected by much.

Peter P,

Public displays of rudeness is prevalent at all levels of society. I might be suffering the crotchety old lady syndrome, but it does seem like kids I see nowadays are more materialistic and assertive than was the case 10 years ago.

I went to a HS magnet program that essentially resegregates the “good students” from the rest of the student body.

We also need a program to resegregate the bad students from the rest. They need specific education on how to stay away from jail and prison.

but it does seem like kids I see nowadays are more materialistic and assertive than was the case 10 years ago

Very true. It used to be that kids are taught to become the perfect workers. Now, they are taught to become the perfect consumers.

Peter P,

There's a big difference between classes with 10 students, 25 students, and 50 students. 50 student environment only works in a lecture only environment where all the students behave themselves. Otherwise, it's way to much to expect teachers to keep track and teach effectively.

Perfect consumer is the opposite of smart consumer.

50 student environment only works in a lecture only environment where all the students behave themselves.

It is doable. But we must allow teachers to exert whatever control they see fit.

The right students will still get personal attention. Students will just have to develop this "people" skill early on.

Peter P,

Maybe it's all the work of the Sirius Cybernetics Corporation :P

Back to housing, did anyone check out the DQ numbers for the bay area? Sales are still down YOY, but up from February. Prices are still going up. Foreclosures are only marginally higher.So this tells me that even though things are starting to get nasty in other parts of the country, there's still people in the BA slapping down 6-700k for these things. What the hell? Why in god's name isn't the BA crashing yet? I know we're all rooting for a big deline, but these numbers don't look promising. Any thoughts?

Well, in many instances parents are no better than their kids. They all think their little angels are perfect when they are hellions. They've basically made it impossible for good teachers to teach the average student body.

Nomad,

I wouldn't be surprised if a lot of stretched buyers are still depending on HELOC and CC to pay their monthly expenses. It'll just take longer to get to the tipping point.

They all think their little angels are perfect when they are hellions.

This is sad. But public education should not subscribe to this thinking. If parents think that their little angles are special, they can surely pay for private, special education.

Astrid,
It would seem that there is every possible stick shoved into the motorbike spoke in the BA as far as RE, so I would expect RE to crash as bad or worse than Florida. FL's crash is well underway and looks to be going the direction that I hope the BA to be heading. Why it is barely nudging is a mystery to me.

Per DQNews, Santa Clara county is now down month-on-month, from 663K in Feb to 660K in Mar. Marin county is down from 837K to 817K.

Teens and children need to be taught to be skeptical and cynical about marketing and consumerism.

Teems and children are perfect consumers because they have infinite wants and they use Other People's Money (OPM). :)

SFWoman,

Thanks for the info. I went to HS in Montgomery county and every school has AP classes, quite a few had IB programs too. My program was test-in and I can say my classmates were dramatically better than students I met in the general ed classes like Health.

Still.. A little voice in my head wonders "what if it doesn't?" As I see it, the play money in the BA has been around for so long that I sometimes wonder if people stop and wonder what 100k means anymore. 300k, 700k, 900k... what does it matter? It's all a LOT of money, and I think so many folks are accustomed to the shock of high prices that perhaps they are willing to pay a hell of a lot more than I thought was humanly possible. Arg. Frusturating!

I went to HS in Montgomery county and every school has AP classes, quite a few had IB programs too.

Perhaps in CA it is considered unPC to have these programs. Every students should be treated the same, even if it means crap.

Peter P
In a classroom with over 30 kids, usually only the misbehaving kids get the attention...which is tough on the top 10% who need special attention also. They have to teach to the middle and become disciplinarians...which is not their primary job. Also, be aware, the top 10% are our leaders for our future.

nomad,

If you download the HSBC quant model, you can see that they predict a far worse crash (in terms of percent of nominal cost) for Florida markets than the BA. I think a lot of this has to do with historical income support levels and historical rental market demand/prices. Also, only Miami is a recognized metro area, and it's near the bottom of the list. Metro areas tend to hold up better than isolated cities because of internal economic activity.

I'm afraid that we must all think about accepting a soft-landing as at least a possibility for the BA. I'm not convinced yet, but there are at least a few indications, not the least of which are recent real wage growth and real economic growth.

In a classroom with over 30 kids, usually only the misbehaving kids get the attention…

Not if teachers are allowed to order the misbehaving kids outside the classroom with the "I am being punished" signs hanging over their necks. :)

How the hell can a California high school not offer AP classes? How is the possible, especially in a state where the educational system is supposedly so excellent?

My lower-middle-class Midwestern high school offered ALL of the AP classes, except for some of the obscure ones like Art History and Latin. I myself got a whole year of college credit as a result.

How can a CALIFORNIA PUBLIC SCHOOL, in SAN FRANCISCO, not offer AP classes?!?! Seriously, this is an outrage!

My view of the educational system just got a lot more negative. What in the world is going on? This is a disgrace!

This is a disgrace! I cannot believe this!

nomad,

Also, FL doesn't have the wages to support their price levels.

There's also huge amount of speculative buying, especially in condo projects. A lot of them were bought without contemplation of ownership. To some degree, we also see this in San Diego, LV, and AZ. Relative to those markets, BA, NY, BOS, PNW, and DC all look pretty sane.

It's just going to take a bit longer.

This is a disgrace! I cannot believe this!

I am with you. It is an outrage.

I think certain level of elitism is necessarily in the education system.

As long as the high school education is going down the shitter, there will be less number of kids going to college which means less number of educated youngsters in the workforce. Fuel for more immigration i think.
I think we should not try to be very PC. Its going to hurt in the long run.

I’m saying that as someone who is fairly liberal socially (but is a HUGE advocate for personal responsibility, which is where traditional liberalism went very, very wrong).

Are you sure you are liberal socially? :)

How do you tell? I thought I was a social liberal. It turns out that I am merely open-minded about certain things.

Newsfreak
IMO Rolling Stone has got it right! :)

SFWoman,

We pondered an actual model and formulae for determining this more precisely on my blog in this thread. (I think I already posted this link in the last thread, if it looks familiar).

The problem is the answer will be different by community/neighborhood and price point relative to that community. There really is no "average house". Think of it like this, a $1M home in Atherton may lose less nominal value than a $1M home in Redwood City, especially if the Atherton zip code historically commands say a 20% premium over San Mateo County's median, whereas Redwood City is at or slightly below county median.

In attempting to come up with my best guess about a year ago I took County-wide median price data going back to the 60s, ran a regression. I then did the same for zips I was interested in, and determined the supportable premium to the county. You can see that most zips stay within a very defined premium (discount) band relative to the county, and they always correct back either way if they venture outside.

What I haven't done is attempt to model the future. That is what we were talking about in that thread above. The problem is that prices are largely driven by psychological factors, so theoretical mean is only a gravitational center. Theoretical mean home price should be determined not directly from inflation, but from affordability: take the median income of families in $1M homes (I don't know what that is), and solve for what home price will give a monthly gross income to PITI (including income tax shield) of 28%.

That's my approach, anyway. Others will disagree. You can use the Bubblizer to do a what-if on this: just guess at income and rent levels and trial & error home prices until you get average 28% ownership costs.

Maybe I am just open minded. I’m still a bit of a snob about some things though.

I am also very "hawkish" about certain issues. ;)

Everyone around me is a (social) liberal though.

I am also very “hawkish” about certain issues.

You are very hawkish on sushi.