patrick.net

Perhaps it could be that californians are favorable to outsiders because most californians are not from california.

SFWoman,

I went to a HS magnet program that essentially resegregates the "good students" from the rest of the student body. I know honors, IB, and AP have essentially been adopted by public schools throughout the country for a similar effect. Does SF proper have such programs?

Also, if we double class size from around 30 to 45, we can increase school capacility by 50% without a proportional increase in costs. I really doubt academic performance will be affected by much.

Peter P,

Public displays of rudeness is prevalent at all levels of society. I might be suffering the crotchety old lady syndrome, but it does seem like kids I see nowadays are more materialistic and assertive than was the case 10 years ago.

I went to a HS magnet program that essentially resegregates the “good students” from the rest of the student body.

We also need a program to resegregate the bad students from the rest. They need specific education on how to stay away from jail and prison.

but it does seem like kids I see nowadays are more materialistic and assertive than was the case 10 years ago

Very true. It used to be that kids are taught to become the perfect workers. Now, they are taught to become the perfect consumers.

Peter P,

There's a big difference between classes with 10 students, 25 students, and 50 students. 50 student environment only works in a lecture only environment where all the students behave themselves. Otherwise, it's way to much to expect teachers to keep track and teach effectively.

Perfect consumer is the opposite of smart consumer.

50 student environment only works in a lecture only environment where all the students behave themselves.

It is doable. But we must allow teachers to exert whatever control they see fit.

The right students will still get personal attention. Students will just have to develop this "people" skill early on.

Peter P,

Maybe it's all the work of the Sirius Cybernetics Corporation :P

Back to housing, did anyone check out the DQ numbers for the bay area? Sales are still down YOY, but up from February. Prices are still going up. Foreclosures are only marginally higher.So this tells me that even though things are starting to get nasty in other parts of the country, there's still people in the BA slapping down 6-700k for these things. What the hell? Why in god's name isn't the BA crashing yet? I know we're all rooting for a big deline, but these numbers don't look promising. Any thoughts?

Well, in many instances parents are no better than their kids. They all think their little angels are perfect when they are hellions. They've basically made it impossible for good teachers to teach the average student body.

Nomad,

I wouldn't be surprised if a lot of stretched buyers are still depending on HELOC and CC to pay their monthly expenses. It'll just take longer to get to the tipping point.

They all think their little angels are perfect when they are hellions.

This is sad. But public education should not subscribe to this thinking. If parents think that their little angles are special, they can surely pay for private, special education.

Astrid,
It would seem that there is every possible stick shoved into the motorbike spoke in the BA as far as RE, so I would expect RE to crash as bad or worse than Florida. FL's crash is well underway and looks to be going the direction that I hope the BA to be heading. Why it is barely nudging is a mystery to me.

Per DQNews, Santa Clara county is now down month-on-month, from 663K in Feb to 660K in Mar. Marin county is down from 837K to 817K.

Teens and children need to be taught to be skeptical and cynical about marketing and consumerism.

Teems and children are perfect consumers because they have infinite wants and they use Other People's Money (OPM). :)

SFWoman,

Thanks for the info. I went to HS in Montgomery county and every school has AP classes, quite a few had IB programs too. My program was test-in and I can say my classmates were dramatically better than students I met in the general ed classes like Health.

Still.. A little voice in my head wonders "what if it doesn't?" As I see it, the play money in the BA has been around for so long that I sometimes wonder if people stop and wonder what 100k means anymore. 300k, 700k, 900k... what does it matter? It's all a LOT of money, and I think so many folks are accustomed to the shock of high prices that perhaps they are willing to pay a hell of a lot more than I thought was humanly possible. Arg. Frusturating!

I went to HS in Montgomery county and every school has AP classes, quite a few had IB programs too.

Perhaps in CA it is considered unPC to have these programs. Every students should be treated the same, even if it means crap.

Peter P
In a classroom with over 30 kids, usually only the misbehaving kids get the attention...which is tough on the top 10% who need special attention also. They have to teach to the middle and become disciplinarians...which is not their primary job. Also, be aware, the top 10% are our leaders for our future.

nomad,

If you download the HSBC quant model, you can see that they predict a far worse crash (in terms of percent of nominal cost) for Florida markets than the BA. I think a lot of this has to do with historical income support levels and historical rental market demand/prices. Also, only Miami is a recognized metro area, and it's near the bottom of the list. Metro areas tend to hold up better than isolated cities because of internal economic activity.

I'm afraid that we must all think about accepting a soft-landing as at least a possibility for the BA. I'm not convinced yet, but there are at least a few indications, not the least of which are recent real wage growth and real economic growth.

In a classroom with over 30 kids, usually only the misbehaving kids get the attention…

Not if teachers are allowed to order the misbehaving kids outside the classroom with the "I am being punished" signs hanging over their necks. :)

How the hell can a California high school not offer AP classes? How is the possible, especially in a state where the educational system is supposedly so excellent?

My lower-middle-class Midwestern high school offered ALL of the AP classes, except for some of the obscure ones like Art History and Latin. I myself got a whole year of college credit as a result.

How can a CALIFORNIA PUBLIC SCHOOL, in SAN FRANCISCO, not offer AP classes?!?! Seriously, this is an outrage!

My view of the educational system just got a lot more negative. What in the world is going on? This is a disgrace!

This is a disgrace! I cannot believe this!

nomad,

Also, FL doesn't have the wages to support their price levels.

There's also huge amount of speculative buying, especially in condo projects. A lot of them were bought without contemplation of ownership. To some degree, we also see this in San Diego, LV, and AZ. Relative to those markets, BA, NY, BOS, PNW, and DC all look pretty sane.

It's just going to take a bit longer.

This is a disgrace! I cannot believe this!

I am with you. It is an outrage.

I think certain level of elitism is necessarily in the education system.

As long as the high school education is going down the shitter, there will be less number of kids going to college which means less number of educated youngsters in the workforce. Fuel for more immigration i think.
I think we should not try to be very PC. Its going to hurt in the long run.

I’m saying that as someone who is fairly liberal socially (but is a HUGE advocate for personal responsibility, which is where traditional liberalism went very, very wrong).

Are you sure you are liberal socially? :)

How do you tell? I thought I was a social liberal. It turns out that I am merely open-minded about certain things.

Newsfreak
IMO Rolling Stone has got it right! :)

SFWoman,

We pondered an actual model and formulae for determining this more precisely on my blog in this thread. (I think I already posted this link in the last thread, if it looks familiar).

The problem is the answer will be different by community/neighborhood and price point relative to that community. There really is no "average house". Think of it like this, a $1M home in Atherton may lose less nominal value than a $1M home in Redwood City, especially if the Atherton zip code historically commands say a 20% premium over San Mateo County's median, whereas Redwood City is at or slightly below county median.

In attempting to come up with my best guess about a year ago I took County-wide median price data going back to the 60s, ran a regression. I then did the same for zips I was interested in, and determined the supportable premium to the county. You can see that most zips stay within a very defined premium (discount) band relative to the county, and they always correct back either way if they venture outside.

What I haven't done is attempt to model the future. That is what we were talking about in that thread above. The problem is that prices are largely driven by psychological factors, so theoretical mean is only a gravitational center. Theoretical mean home price should be determined not directly from inflation, but from affordability: take the median income of families in $1M homes (I don't know what that is), and solve for what home price will give a monthly gross income to PITI (including income tax shield) of 28%.

That's my approach, anyway. Others will disagree. You can use the Bubblizer to do a what-if on this: just guess at income and rent levels and trial & error home prices until you get average 28% ownership costs.

Maybe I am just open minded. I’m still a bit of a snob about some things though.

I am also very "hawkish" about certain issues. ;)

Everyone around me is a (social) liberal though.

I am also very “hawkish” about certain issues.

You are very hawkish on sushi.

You can use the Bubblizer to do a what-if on this: just guess at income and rent levels and trial & error home prices until you get average 28% ownership costs.

Warning: the Bubblizer does not consider planetary aspects :)

...but it is the best we can possibly have. Thanks Randy.

I still cannot believe this. I can barely see straight. Most of the schools do NOT offer AP classes.

Look at what Mission HS DOES offer (from the web site):

Rochelle towers, M.S.W., wellness coordinator
Suede Marsh, Nurse Practitioner
Judy Romero, MFT, counseling from Richmond areas Multi-services
Sam Smith, Psychologist, Richmond areas multi-services
Rebecca yun, substance abuse counselor, Asian American Recovery Services
Jacob Simmons, counselor, Horizons unlimited
Sweta Shah, domestic and dating violence, La casa de las Madres
Health corps Workers, Community and school wide outreach

What we do:

Nursing Services

Screening for vision, hearing, nutrition and hypertension. Support for Chronic illness such as asthma and diabetes, obesity, skin condition, etc.

November Flu shots for staff who are interested.

Nurse Practitioner is on site 4 days a week (not on Tuesday). We are not a full-scale clinic and cannot dispense any medications.

First aid

Mental health services

We have counselors, all of whom are on a part-time basis

Substance abuse prevention and counseling

Substance abuse counselor on campus 2 days per week. See students who have been identified as having abuse issues.

Reproductive and physical health service

Starting this week, we dispense condoms to students during lunchtime on Thursdays

Monthly pregnancy and STD screening and on site counseling will begin Late November

Support groups

Talking circles-aimed at 9th and 10th grade girls. Lunchtime Wednesday

Building Personal power: empowering your generation-Skills group for dealing with anger. Separate group for male, female. Starting beginning of November

Work with mission accomplish, tutoring Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday after school in library and by appointment for other times

Referral and links to other community based organizations

Students Assistance Program (SAP)

Presentations on a range of topics for classrooms or faculty. Soon we will provide you with form so you can indicate topic of interest.

How Do I Refer Students To The Wellness Center?

General Concerns:

If a teacher feels that a student a student needs attention for general concerns, the teacher should refer the student to his/her counselor with a 1.0 form. If appropriate the counselor will refer the students to the wellness center.

Health Concern:

The teacher can refer the student to come down to the wellness center during the nurse’s drop-in hours, which are everyday during lunch and after school except Tuesday.

If the health concern is urgent then the teacher can call down to the Wellness Center to see if nurse is in and make an appointment for student. Please use the provided referral slip.

Psychosocial Counseling:

A student may have already been referred to the Wellness Center and one of our counselors may call your class to request that a student be seen during that period.

At first I seriously thought the site was a was a parody of mealy-mouthed liberalsim -- but it's real! Look at this! It is disgusting!

A "dating violence" counselor? WTF? This is disgusting!

..and let's not forget "CONDOM THURSDAYS"

("Starting this week, we dispense condoms to students during lunchtime on Thursdays.")

Isn't CA the greatest?

(”Starting this week, we dispense condoms to students during lunchtime on Thursdays.”)

I don't know. They should be teaching sexual abstinence instead.

A good question would be is does anyone think fringe areas like Dublin, Pleasanton, Etc will have higher price drops than BA proper? A soft landing where I might have to wait 5-7 years is unacceptable, and if prices don't come down at least 20-30%, then this too is unacceptable.

I think that they have given up on the students academically and they are just trying to keep the girls from getting pregnant or beat up by their (or their mothers’) boyfriends.

Teen pregnancy rate is too high. This is because the society accepts it. If there are more consequences, people will think twice before doing something stupid.

The police should handle the abuse cases.

nomad,

I can't speak to the East Bay, but in Marin we can see that a couple of the bigger cities are way outside of their supportable premium-to-county, so any overall correction should by amplified there as it "double corrects".

I'd guess that low-premium/discount areas will overshoot the correction (or overshoot by more). You really need to dig into those communities you want to live in and see how they relate to the county, then you'll get an idea if they'll drop by more or less than the mean.

I haven't proven it, but my smeller tells me that premiums strongly correlate to school districts. Given all this AP discussion, I guess that's why Mill Valley commands such a high premium-to-county, even given most of the houses here are absolute crap-boxes.