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Communication and the Crash


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2006 Apr 28, 1:37am   38,919 views  237 comments

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If there is anything truly unique about this housing bubble, it's the amount of information that is available to all of us who are interested.

Patrick.net posts links to news sites daily that gives us details on virtually anything any of us want to know about the bubble in our hometown.

This blog allows us to compare news and trade ideas on how fast/slow the bubble is bursting.

How do you think this incredible access to information is going to change how this housing bubble bursts? Is this bubble going to be less "sticky" on the way down because the average homebuyer will have quicker access to all the relevant data?

What do you think?

#housing

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122   Randy H   2006 Apr 28, 8:31am  

But the kids need to determine how to cut up the pie among themselves.

So, using CME housing future, you could tie value of shares of interest in the house to the index for the market. Then, the children would determine who's going to live in the house and who's going to take the CME shares (which would be financed and deducted from the net value of "equity").

123   astrid   2006 Apr 28, 8:42am  

Randy and Owneroccupier,

If anyone is serious about this, a good estate and trust lawyer will be able to put together a trust or a family limited corporation.

I'm pretty clueless about Prop 13 material, but for general estate planning, try to get hold of Price on Contemporary Estate Planning via interlibrary loan (because it's like $260 retail). It's a pretty easy to use handbook on the subject.

124   OO   2006 Apr 28, 8:42am  

FAB,

you'd be surprised at how important physical attraction is for women as well in the mate selection process, especially women from rich families, yup, talking about the heiress.

Look is the most basic form of selection by the nature before we invented money, golf membership, ivy degrees and all that crap. I have personally seen quite a few very handsome guys from ordinary backgrounds marrying up, despite opposition from the heiress' parents.

125   OO   2006 Apr 28, 8:48am  

astrid,

I don't think I am at that stage planning out my estate yet :-)

I just want to point out the fact that most old-timers with lots of equity may not be the driving force for the price going downwards. Even if they want to sell out, their kids may want to take advantage of their homes as tax shield.

So if we wish for a more severe price correction, we should be hoping for more mindless flipping activities. I know everyone hates flippers, but put in perspective, they are blessings in disguise for the bubblesitters, because they take properties off the hands of established sellers at a very inflated price, and when things go sour, they will have to spew the properties out at a lower price much faster than the original owner.

126   astrid   2006 Apr 28, 8:57am  

Owneroccupier,

I didn't think you would be. But it's entirely possible that members of your family or friends might be. There are a lot of planning opportunities out there and for someone with $2M plus assets, it's really worthwhile to spend a couple thousand on trusts that can potentially save hundreds of thousands on taxes and reduce family friction at the time of death.

I actually really recommend reading (or even owning) Price. This is what many estate planning professionals refer to and it has some great ideas about using life insurance, trusts, and gifts to avoid taxation. It's still a good idea to use a good estate lawyer when the time comes, but it really helps to be an educated customer.

Even for someone your age, unless you want to leave everything to your spouse, it's something to think about. If the total of you and your spouse's life insurances and assets total over $2M, it's definitely worth looking into.

127   Randy H   2006 Apr 28, 9:00am  

And flippers help bring equilibrium to the Prop 13 imbalances by causing homes to reassess often.

128   Randy H   2006 Apr 28, 9:01am  

I thought family limited corps were severely hobbled recently.

129   astrid   2006 Apr 28, 9:02am  

Owneroccupier,

I know what you mean about flippers, they will grease the way for whippersnappers to get into established communities. I mostly don't like the flippers because of the systemic instability they bring into the financial market and because they resulted in overly high prices paid by new owner-users.

If they were better regulated and more efficient like stockmarket arbitragers, I'd be all for their presence in the market.

130   Randy H   2006 Apr 28, 9:10am  

If they were better regulated and more efficient like stockmarket arbitragers, I’d be all for their presence in the market

Flippers are speculators, not arbitrageurs. They carry value risk. Arbitrageurs are rare even in the stock market except for the real big boys who have scale to make it worthwhile to trade on very tiny divergences.

131   Garth Farkley   2006 Apr 28, 9:11am  

Randy H asked,

Do you know of any law firms, etc. already doing such things?

No. It was an original idea. I thought.

Anyone who did it would keep it very, very quiet.

132   astrid   2006 Apr 28, 9:13am  

Randy,

I think you're referring to Bongard v. Commissioners. Yep, there's increased scrutiny on whether the transactions are truly at arms length, but the basic transaction can still be useful in certain instances.

133   astrid   2006 Apr 28, 9:17am  

The financially arranged marriage transfer doesn't really work all that well. This loophole is no good for income tax, since that would already be paid. There's already a gift exemption of $12K per person per receiver per year (that means if you had 10 grandkids and is still married to your spouse, you can give them a total of $240K a year!), and there's lots of gift and estate planning opportunities without going into engineered marriages for asset transfer.

Then there's a high level of moral hazard for any would be spouse/intermediary. They can just take the money and run.

134   Garth Farkley   2006 Apr 28, 9:19am  

Astrid,

Thanks for the tip on Price. Any other good primer you can recommend? I'm planning to draft a trust for my wife and and I.

I might hire an expert but want to refresh my memory on the basics first. I need to start back at square one.

135   Randy H   2006 Apr 28, 9:21am  

But that's what Garth and I could engineer away. Using deposit certs, housing futures, and lots of other nifty stuff you could ostensibly engineer a financial obligation equivalent to the going fair market value of "your stake" in the arrangement. And, it seems, all of this would be on the border of legality. It would be arm's length, have a valid business and personal purpose, and provide risk-reward benefit to all participants.

Garth and I need to have a beer then consult some shrewd attorneys.

136   astrid   2006 Apr 28, 9:27am  

Garth,

I think you're a practicing lawyer so this will be easy, go to a local law library and ask the reference librarian about their estate planning material. The most useful stuff will probably be published by the California bar and ABA.

I wouldn't recommend drafting a trust agreement yourself, you really should have someone who knows the state of the art on the matter. You can use the forms if you do a simple trust, but even then, it's worthwhile to pay a practioner to read over your docs. My recs on Price is for you to be an educated customer, because there are a lot of paid bad/sloppy drafting out there.

137   astrid   2006 Apr 28, 9:31am  

Randy,

I still don't see a scenario where marriage transactions make sense. There are easier ways to buy up assets and transfer money. Could you or Garth come up with a scenario where this sort of transaction makes sense?

138   astrid   2006 Apr 28, 10:09am  

SFWoman,

You sound like a Seward Johnson granddaughter :)

139   Garth Farkley   2006 Apr 28, 10:09am  

Astrid said:

I still don’t see a scenario where marriage transactions make sense. There are easier ways to buy up assets and transfer money. Could you or Garth come up with a scenario where this sort of transaction makes sense?

You know we're joking, right? Even so, I'd bet somebody, somewhere, sometime in California in the last 30 years has gotten married to avoid a reassessment. Those wacky humans do the strangest things.

140   OO   2006 Apr 28, 10:11am  

buffpilot,

what you describe is almost in exsitence in CA, it is called anti-deficiency law. You don't need to pay back the difference in loan amount and the market value of the home if you get foreclosed upon. For example, you bought your house at 1M with 20% down borring 800K, somehow the house tanks to 500K and you cannot make your payment, then you turn over your keys to the bank. If this were an investment home, your bank WILL come after your ass for the difference in the loan amount (800K) and what the bank can get dumping the house on the open market (500K). Under anti-deficiency law, the bank has to eat up the difference itself.

Here is also a catch. Once you refinance, you essentially give up your anti-dificiency right. So if a homedebtor ever HELOC'd, most likely he will not be protected when he defaults on his mortgage payment, ass-biting bank on his tail forever.

141   astrid   2006 Apr 28, 10:11am  

Garth,

I thought so, but any real life example of such a transaction would be like the Giffon good of estate planning. So I had to ask.

142   OO   2006 Apr 28, 10:17am  

I heard of a couple who got DIVORCED to mitigate tax obligations. How? Well, both are in investment banking making big bucks. Tax law has it that a household can have two homes for mortgage interest deduction, so they ran the NPV and divorced, living next door to each other with 4 expensive homes under their names for mortgage interest deduction.

I am never amazed at how far humans can go to avoid paying tax. I believe that social behavior is largely tuned by tax law.

143   astrid   2006 Apr 28, 10:28am  

Well, marriage is basically a contract backed by the power of the state.

As for your example...well, I see a lot of financially based marriage decisions, especially for health insurance, it was just the idea of using marriage primarily as a means to transfer assets that seems weird.

144   Peter P   2006 Apr 28, 10:34am  

I am never amazed at how far humans can go to avoid paying tax. I believe that social behavior is largely tuned by tax law.

Flat tax!! Consumption based taxation!!

145   Peter P   2006 Apr 28, 10:36am  

A marriage is a life-long commitment made in front of God. A divorce is rarely justified. Getting a divorce for financial reason is just incomprehensible.

146   OO   2006 Apr 28, 10:36am  

More Dean Dean Baby, get a good laugh for the weekend

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Jfy1cTMyz_E

147   GallopingCheetah   2006 Apr 28, 10:53am  

O.O.: That video stinks. The guys are pathetic. I stopped after first 10 secs. What's so funny about it?

As for leaving something to your children, I thought the English system of primogeniture (by the male line) makes a lot of sense. It's cruel to those who cannot inherit. But life is always cruel.

Regarding good looks in mating and marriage: Looks are very important. But I thought the heiresses could just play the good-looking guys instead of marrying them. Somewhere someone said that the insecure marry down and when they marry down they marry good looks. Stupid.

That's why the freedom of choosing a marriage partner, specially for the upper echelon of the society, should be taken out of the hands of the children. They can have affairs AFTER marriage. Such a practice guards against degeneration of the family line.

148   GallopingCheetah   2006 Apr 28, 10:58am  

From wikipedia:

Arguments in favour of primogeniture:

Primogeniture prevents the subdivision of estates and diminishes internal pressures to sell property (for example, if two children inherit a house and one cannot afford to buy out the other's share). In Western Europe most younger sons of the nobility, having no prospect of inheriting land or property, were obliged to seek careers in the Church, the Armed Forces or in Government. Wills often included bequests to a monastic order who would take the disinherited. Many of the Spanish Conquistadors were young sons who had to make their fortune in war. In the late 17th and early 18th Centuries, many specifically chose to leave England for Virginia in the Colonies. Most, if not almost all, of the early Virginians who were plantation owners were such younger sons who had left England because of primogeniture laws. These Founding Fathers of the United States of America were nearly universally descended from the landed gentry of England, with many being descended from English Kings of the late 14th and early 15th Centuries, especially through the prodigious offspring of Edward III of England. William Shakespeare's King Lear can be seen as an argument in favor of primogeniture as the tragically flawed action of Lear is dividing his country into three amongst his daughters. The division of his land marks the beginning of the unraveling of everything else in the play.

Arguments against primogeniture:

The fact that the eldest son "scooped the pool" often led to ill-feeling amongst younger sons (and of course daughters). Through marriage, estates inherited by primogeniture were combined and some nobles achieved wealth and power sufficient to pose a threat even to the crown itself. Alternately, one might think that, as with most property, the land will go to its most useful purpose no matter what the initial distribution (the Coase Theorem). Finally, nobles tended to complain about and resist rules of primogeniture (though this opposition might indicate primogeniture among nobles was good for the king).

Primogeniture also can lead to less than able successors. See for example Christian VII of Denmark who was likely schizophrenic and Afonso VI of Portugal who was a half-wit.

149   Randy H   2006 Apr 28, 11:20am  

A marriage is a life-long commitment made in front of God.

My wife and I were married by the County of Cook in the State of Illinois, before a judge. We've already outlasted nearly 60% of our peers, most of whom were married in churches and synagogues.

150   Randy H   2006 Apr 28, 11:27am  

I know at least 1 couple who got a legal divorce, but still live as if married purely for tax reasons. They have no children, which uncomplicates things tremendously. CA has no common-law marriage rules, also simplifying things. The taxation difference was tremendous, primarily due to AMT rules. AMT strongly discourages dual-income high-earner marriages. I've heard of others getting divorced later in life (after kids have left) in order to tax manage inheritances when one partner is a high earner and the other is nearing a sizable inheritance. Again, AMT is the culprit. And it's not always just AMT earnings, but often high deductions activate AMT, thereby taxing the other partner disproportionately.

If politicians wish to preach to me about the import of maintaining the "sanctity of marriage", then they can go a long way towards proving the conviction of their beliefs by removing existing disincentives. Otherwise, it is nothing but cynical, shallow, political opportunism.

151   astrid   2006 Apr 28, 11:28am  

Peter P,

You believe in God and Karma? Far out!

There is much to endorse in a quick elopment. They're kind of like starting out a business. You'd think the one with high bonding costs (big diamond ring and expensive wedding) would last longer (because of high barrier to entry, or something); but in reality, the cheap elopments don't come with the (debt, social, mutual expectation) pressures of high priced weddings and can work out better.

152   Peter P   2006 Apr 28, 11:31am  

My wife and I were married by the County of Cook in the State of Illinois, before a judge. We’ve already outlasted nearly 60% of our peers, most of whom were married in churches and synagogues.

Religions, churches and synagogues were created by men.

153   StuckInBA   2006 Apr 28, 11:31am  

I do believe that internet will have SOME effect in reducing the stickiness. At least part of the buyer pool is well informed and behave cautiosly. I don't think there is any way of quantifying the effect.

The main reason stickiness will be less this time is the credit bubble. We can say whatever we want to on these blogs. But when it starts pinching the pocket, it is far more effective. Wait till the ARMs reset. Then we can see how sticky the home prices are. Wait till people are under water for 2 years, then 3 years and then 4 years. In this age of instant gratification, patience is an unheard virtue. It takes tremendous hard work, strong will and faith in yourself to ride out the bad times. Our social structure is just incapable of handling a slow death of the housing bubble.

I don't think we will have to wait till 2015 to see 50% loss in real terms. Anytime between 2008 and 2010.

154   Peter P   2006 Apr 28, 11:32am  

There is much to endorse in a quick elopment. They’re kind of like starting out a business. You’d think the one with high bonding costs (big diamond ring and expensive wedding) would last longer (because of high barrier to entry, or something); but in reality, the cheap elopments don’t come with the (debt, social, mutual expectation) pressures of high priced weddings and can work out better.

I agree. The most important thing in a wedding is cost control.

155   StuckInBA   2006 Apr 28, 11:32am  

Oh and BTW, can anyone recommend a perma-bull site/blog for housing ? (Apart from CL, if it can be called as such.)

156   Peter P   2006 Apr 28, 11:33am  

AMT strongly discourages dual-income high-earner marriages. I’ve heard of others getting divorced later in life (after kids have left) in order to tax manage inheritances when one partner is a high earner and the other is nearing a sizable inheritance. Again, AMT is the culprit. And it’s not always just AMT earnings, but often high deductions activate AMT, thereby taxing the other partner disproportionately.

This is why we must do away with AMT. Throw away most deductions! We need a flat tax.

157   astrid   2006 Apr 28, 11:34am  

I maintain that marriage is purely an indefinite contractual agreement for raising kids, sharing expenses, and enjoyment of health insurance.

In cases of marriages with one wealthy elderly party and a sexy younger person of foreign extraction, marriage also functions to take money out of the hands of ungrateful/deserving/awesome because she's SFWoman grandchildren and into the younger spouse's extensive "family."

158   Peter P   2006 Apr 28, 11:34am  

Oh and BTW, can anyone recommend a perma-bull site/blog for housing ? (Apart from CL, if it can be called as such.)

If you read this site in reverse, you will see perma-bull messages.

159   Peter P   2006 Apr 28, 11:35am  

I maintain that marriage is purely an indefinite contractual agreement for raising kids, sharing expenses, and enjoyment of health insurance.

Marriage is not indefinite. It ends on the natural, physical death of one or both of its participants.

160   Randy H   2006 Apr 28, 11:38am  

Oh and BTW, can anyone recommend a perma-bull site/blog for housing ?

Try the NAR or CAR's sites. Although they don't have blogs. Actually, I forget who did it (CNN ran the article), but one of those national realtor(tm) orgs opened up a blog for a while that allowed true anonymity. They were very discouraged to find that the PermaBulls suddenly started admitting a hugely Bearish sentiment, when anonymous.

161   OO   2006 Apr 28, 11:40am  

Can someone enlighten me on what CL stands for?

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