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Bubble modeling?


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2006 May 2, 2:57pm   19,270 views  251 comments

by totoro   ➕follow (0)   💰tip   ignore  

Hello,

Not sure if this has been discussed here or not, but I recently came across the following report from HBSC Global Research. It’s a pretty comprehensive analysis of the US housing market based on a model called HomePulse, which they developed and have made publicly available. I've linked the spreadsheet below also. There is so much data, buttons and knobs to play with that I haven't been able to even scratch the surface on it. I think there are some sharp minds on this forum - it would be interesting to see some discussion of this work.

HBSC Report (PDF, large)

HomePulse model (Excel)

#housing

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241   Randy H   2006 May 4, 3:38am  

Anyone who flies commercial (first class or animal farm) is in the middle class.

There are CEOs of $1bn companies that fly commercial. Didn't Roger Sibone fly commercial even though he ranked as one of the top 100 wealthiest in the Valley for a while?

242   tsusiat   2006 May 4, 3:44am  

PS -

I know you care, you know you care...

I know you can't stand to be thought of as an elitist,
but on the other hand, I know you're not one of "the people".

According to your budget and your definition of "wealth", your $120,000 year number places such a family in the "upper middle class".

So I guess you're saying you know nobody below the Upper Middle Class,

or for that matter, you know nobody who really does live "frugally" as Astrid noted earlier.

Please do not keep trying to maintain how tough it is to get by when you have 25% of your discretionary earnings to spend or save, even after your rather high rent payments are factored in.

Need I mention the people in the income bracket you mention who bought houses say, 10 years ago, quite possibly have mortgage payments nowhere near to the rental expenses you quoted.

Are they not "wealthy", if their mortgages clock in at 1500 to 2000 per month? This is not that unlikely -

http://tinyurl.com/k4n2p

243   Peter P   2006 May 4, 3:46am  

There are CEOs of $1bn companies that fly commercial. Didn’t Roger Sibone fly commercial even though he ranked as one of the top 100 wealthiest in the Valley for a while?

The point is that Roger Sibone could Conservatively Afford â„¢ private aircrafts. The fact that he chose not to is less important. :)

244   Peter P   2006 May 4, 3:46am  

fly where, Reno or Kathmandu?

Anywhere.

245   Peter P   2006 May 4, 3:48am  

RE: animal farm reference...

We overheard flight attendants using that term...

246   tsusiat   2006 May 4, 3:56am  

Peter P,

That's a relief, thank god I'm not one of the mob!

247   astrid   2006 May 4, 4:17am  

ps,

Now that we have the definitions cleared out. I'll just restate my original sentence.

If you're a newcomer to BA without substantial savings, you have to be in the upper 20% income to give your kids a good education. All cleared? :)

One problem with the BA is that it attracts so many overachievers who are enslave themselves to their employers in return for "equity" in a $1M plus POS. They could double their living standards easily by moving to almost any other tech center.

248   tsusiat   2006 May 4, 4:43am  

PS-

No shit you are the shit, man.

249   astrid   2006 May 4, 4:44am  

ps,

(forgive me for sounding a bit GC right here)

I do wonder about the all sacrificing parents. I think of kids as sort of the ultimate in consumable goods. There's almost zero change, especially in the middle and upper middle classes, that kids will return any investment to the parents, yet they cost a tremendous amount in time and money.

So my first question would be - are parents all brainwashed?

And my second question would be - is parenthood really be so rewarding that it's worth forgoing 20 years of nice restaurant, frequent sex, chance to ditch spouse for better model, living in an urban environment, financial security, etc etc?

:) How much do you value your child?

250   astrid   2006 May 4, 4:44am  

ps is pretty awesome, isn't he. He even knows who Frank Kingdon Ward is!

251   astrid   2006 May 4, 4:52am  

change = chance

(maybe I need drugs, pronto!)

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