patrick.net

Hell, I am still trying to figure out why anyone would pay that kind of money for a Mainland Chinese bank. I kind of understand the Chinese doing it, because they do not have many better saving avenues, but why would any foreigner possibly touch that hot potato? Where the hell is the upside?

GC,

Bismarck and Hitler are not quite equivalent to each other. While the Germans (and the French, and just about everyone else) don't like the meddlesome English, Bismarck managed to co-exist with Austria Hungary and did not nurse Napoleonic ambitions.

You are treading awfully close to being provacative for the sake of provoking. If someone here ends up being annoyed by your comments, be forewarned that I will erase.

Randy H,

You said: But I have a command on what my “discount rate” is.

I believe you were explaining that you can make your own informed decision in holding a commodities porfolio inlcuding precious metals.

As usual, I have to ask you to dumb it down a bit for me. I'm guessing your discount rate has something to do with the present value of those commodities at some future date if speculative pressures don't change the price. Am I getting warmer? Is your personal discount rate based on the returns you could make in other income generating investments that are available to you?

Dystopian,

I'm not sure FDR truly cured the Great Depression. His programs ameliorated the conditions and some portions of society managed to recover by the late 1930s, but there's no proof that his policy actually pulled the US out of depression.

Of course, he was much more fiscally conservative than Republicans today give him credit for. He didn't spend on borrowed credit. New Deal also built useful stuff, as oppose to those Japanese roads to nowhere.

D.C.,

I read that one long ago, yes, in English, and found it repetitious and boring. I''ll do an online search to validate your claim.

I thought Japan escalated its compaign in the Pacific shortly after they attacked Pearl Harbour. Yes, they were forced into a conflict with US. But once the shooting started, they had no choice but to occupy strategic locations in the Pacific. It's so natural: If you have to fight, fight with all you have and fight to win. Why is it so difficult to understand?

Given the economic strength and freedom, EVERY NATION wants a mighty navy.

That is why I AM VERY CONCERNED ABOUT THE RISE OF CHINA AND INDIA. This rise will cause instability in the world and potentially another GREAT WAR.

Before, it was the rise of German and later re-surrection of Germany and the rise of Japan. Now ......

DID YOU GET MY MESSAGE?

There is no morality in international affairs. It is all about power.

Garth,

You've got one part of it. Discount rates apply both to time and to risk. I think Randy was primarily talking about risk. Usually, there's a discount for higher risk investments. That means the expected return for riskier investments should be higher than the expected return for less risky investments.

Dystopian Contrarian echoes many of the things I’ve learned from Randy H. Has anyone ever seen both of them in the same place at the same time?

Randall Harrison Esq. is no longer available, please forward any inquiries to his admin, Miss Sassy Pants.

surfer-x,

I think that's Randolph...

astrid,

it is the same reason why one would pay 200 P/E or 1000 P/E for dotcoms. At the height of the Red Chip craze in 1997, people were paying >200 P/E for mainland Chinese textile outfits, shipyards, real estate developers, or conglomerates (which means nobody knows what the heck they do). I was asking my friend why they were buying these stocks, they were giving me this stare like I didn't comprehend the basics of economics. Needless to say, these stocks tanked 90-95% after the pop, some even got delisted.

I really don't think the Chinese and the Indians are in a position to do large scale warfare. They've got way too many internal problems to take care of. They're also nowhere as well organized as the Japanese and Germans of the 1930s. They're much more likely to implode than direct their attentions outwards.

20th century warfare is a negative game, nobody wins. Just look at Israel.

People who are so negative on the future need to take a hike around the world and see what kind of condition most people are facing. Being born in this country is already giving you a HUGE head start against people from some countries who will never reach even 1/10 of your living standard no matter how hard they try. They are doomed from the moment of birth.

Americans are spoilt. Nobody needs to eat that much food, eating less that the appetite allows is healthy, nobody needs to drive so much, walking is even better. Nobody needs to live in a house with 1000sf per capita, most people in the world get by with only 1/10 of that, and they are just fine. Nobody needs to buy so much Walmart junk that cycles from the store to the garage and then to the rubbish bin in a matter of days.

I say most Americans are pretty obsessed with self-inflicting pain. If they just scale back some of their unreasonable, larger-than-life expectations, they will be a lot happier and healthier.

SFWoman,

the solution is easy, encourage gay sex. Also, China has a huge prostitution industry, it is a huge part of the GDP that goes unreported. As long as the single guys can get their aggression relieved in other channels, they will be fine.

SFWoman,

The Chinese have a long tradition of female infanticide or simply letting girls die in times of hardship through neglect. This situation had manifested itself in internal instability. Via higher crime rates and greater likelihood of revolutionary behavior.

I suppose the Chinese can try to coopt these futureless young men via military expeditions abroad. But that would be a risky move. Veterans are not a particularly pacific bunch, and China has enough problems without engaging in war abroad. They could not even defeat the Vietnamese!

Owneroccupier,

I think my 7th grade lab partner expressed the sentiment the best. "Americans are born to waste, thats what makes me American."

Owneroccupier,

The Chinese managed to deal with a female shortage since forever - concubinage + relatively few warriers. I guess prostitution is pretty much inevitable. The important thing is to keep these men hoping to marry, then pull the rug from under them when they are 40 or 50 and too old to make trouble.

I have a distant relative in rural Heilongjiang. The family had 5 sons and one daughter. None of the sons married.

D.C.,

Your correction well taken. AH did express admiration for US industrial potential, now I remember, not for the innate propensity to fight that the tommies were so well-known for. But his Bundestag speech was probably aimed at rallying his troops by belittling the Americans. You said the Bundestag was a sham at that time. So it was probably towards the end of the war when American jackboots were already on the European continent. Just my guess.

A starving man only wants a job to feed himself. But when hunger is no longer an issue, he casts his glances at your house, garden, and perhaps your gold coins, too.

That's why the Spartans kept their men in perpetual war-like training and living environment, so as not to lose guard and become soft. Sparta survived a long time.

SFWoman,

Sorry for erasing your target. I have an especial dislike for trolls who keep changing their handles. ;)

GC,

Yes, the lovely Laconians. But when they went out, they did it in an awfully bloody minded way. Besides, the Athenians might have made it if there was no plague. And at least we still remember Athenian contribution to human knowledge. We know basically nothing about the Spartans, except that they oppressed a lot of Helots.

Also, before certain country becomes strong as she is today, would she have had the guts and clout to meddle in the Iran and North Korea nuke affairs, purposely upsetting the US plan to forestall potential nuclear threats?

SFWoman,

Sadly, I think the latter is the case. It managed to reference a personal detail about me this afternoon.

Standing up to America is really not that hard. Just ask Kim Jong Il. The American military is stretched very thin right now, and it's not getting much respect on the diplomatic front.

It's an SBC account routed out of Plano, Texas. However, that doesn't mean the person posting is from the Plano area.

SFWoman,

There's some debate about exactly how crazy Kim Jong Il is. He may simply be crazy like a fox. That guy is a survivor. Most people thought he wouldn't last two years after his father died, but he's managed so survive for over ten years, bad haircut, crooked teeth, and all.

Let us not be naive. If Kim Jong II didn't have "under the table" promises from God-know-who, his regime wouldn't have lasted. He was useful to some countries. I've seen this again and again in personal and social matters as well. It's always the same pattern: Some crazies are used to muddle the water while those pulling the strings in the back reap certain kinds of profit (not necessarily in monetary terms).

Of course, the US has done the same to those countries, for example, by supporting certain religious leaders or political dissidents. It's power play, as I said over and over again. The key is where you stand. For me, self interest rules supreme.

SFWoman,

Zillow is pretty worthless for internal details. It is a nice way to check out a neighborhood and check the sales records. The California Google Earth add ons are very nice. However, I wouldn't trust it's valuation except as a very broad ballpark.

He is pretty pathetic. At least the last spambot/stupid troll posted legit mls sales.

GC,

I agree this was the case in the past. China wanted a buffer from South Korea and the American presence there. But I don't think it's in China's interest to antagonize the Japanese and ROK with Kim's antics. Also, notice that Kim tries his best to go against the wishes of, uh, his Chinese masters.

A ruling elite will look out for its self interest. But its self interest can be benevalent as well as belligerant. Modern Singapore and Japan managed to run very successful states without directly oppressing anyone, except their Malaysian maids.

Cool! Too bad I don't know any $15 million house owners.

I have to say, if I had a $15 million house, I would cash out, hire a private plane, and start looking my own South Seas fiefdom. SF is very nice, but the sea water is kind of cold.

Fair enough. But then again, some people are masters of acting. Let me quote a cliche -- how does one do e with that thing, I mean that thing, you know, that thing, that little thing on e, no, no, the other way, yeah, ', that is it, what do you call it? -- "nothing is what it seems." We can go on and on.

GC,

Perhaps Kim is a Manchurian candidate, so to speak. However, that is speculative and not well backed by facts. Most Korean watchers think he's got a mind of his own, and quite a wily mind too.

I'm not educated enough to converse about the "that thing."

SFWoman,

then you will lose the low humidity weather of Norcal, and turn us into FL. Cold currents meeting warm land is exactly what makes the mediterranean weather so desirable, warm, humid weather is a dime a dozen.

There are only 4 spots in the world where you get mild weather with low humidity, the first one is of course Mediterranean Italian coast/ French Cote d'Azur, the second spot is us, third down along the Chilean coast and the last around Perth, Australia. We certainly don't want to lose this treasured seat, do we? :-)

"Imagine the beaches of Marin or Sonoma with 84 degree water. Ahh."

That sounds excellent! Though I fear such a gift would up the BA intangibles up even further and double the rent for me!

(I heard it's the cold ocean waters that give BA such mild year around weather. Warmer ocean waters would change the weather to be more like the East Coast.)

Owneroccupier,

What about South Africa? I thought it also has a Mediterrean climate.

South Africa unfortunatel (or fortunately?) has warm waters.

Astrid,

You referred to our military as stretched thin. Another way to think of it is tough, lean and battle hardened. An army is not like a bank account that gets drawn down by using it. It's more like a muscle, or better yet a boxer who gets tougher through work. Certainly his opponents will respect and fear the tough, highly experienced fighter.

I saw a headline the other day -- I didn't get to read the article -- that one of the Iranian generals contradicted claims that Iran will punish the US for "evil deeds" by Israel. I tend to believe that our adversaries have more respect for our military than most Americans do. I'm certain that none of them want to face us on the battlefield, more so now when the latest generation has practical combat experience. Our military has always been huge on training, but it's not combat.

In my view, our adversaries fear and respect military power more than most of us do. War for most Americans is an abstraction and largely a moral issue. For the middle east in particular -- and especially Iran after its horrific war with Iraq -- war and military power are concrete issues of daily life. I'm inclined to believe that, though they may resent us or even hate us, our enemies respect us more than they did before we invaded Afghanistan and Iraq.

"South Africa unfortunatel (or fortunately?) has warm waters."

Hmmm, one more reason not to move there. I heard that Iraq and Saudi Arabia has terrible summer heat and humidity due to warm Gulf waters. I imagine South Africa has something similar.

Garth,

The US Army is having serious problems recruiting new troops and maintaining its troop level. I don't know the Arab perspective but I know the Chinese one. Gulf War I was a revelation for the Mainland Chinese, due to America's extreme efficiency. Gulf War II showed America wasn't invincible and can be worn down, just like it was worn down in Korea and Vietnam.

The US military was designed to handle two combat engagements at a time. Right now, it's occupied in Iraq and Afganistan. If America wanted to teach Iran or North Korea a lesson, where are the troops coming from?
The Bush administration sent fewer troops to Iraq than Pentagon war plans called for. The consequence is that Iraq is now one big unsecured mess outside of the Green Zone.

How are the troops not stretched thin? National guard troops, who enlisted in the belief that they would primarily serve state side, now find themselves in second and third tours of duty in Iraq. You can call these people battle hardened, but they shouldn't be in Iraq at all. They should be state side, ready to help local police with emergency situations. That was what they originally signed up for.

I didn't reference Israel for US involvement. I was thinking of the Israelis, an undeniably tough and determined people, who won war after war against vastly superior numbers. Yet, has these military successes brought them peace? No! They're still struggling with a hostile Palestinian population at home and menacing neighbors.

Astrid,

You've made many assertions that differ from my own impressions of our recent history and current situation. Perhaps we'll take them up in the Iraq thread when we have the energy and can stand to beat up on each other for a while.

I will note one specific disagreement, to follow up on on my original point. Strictly in military terms our invasion and occupation of Iraq has surely heightened our adversaries' fear of US military power. Strictly in military terms, I can't think of any more lopsided, overwhelming miltary victory in modern history.

Please understand I'm not arguing for or against the war in this post. I'm only suggesting one consequence that is rarely discussed. And please also know that I grieve for our wounded and maimed soldiers and the families of our war dead. In fact, I also grieve for the dead and wounded Iraquis. I'm not a fan of killing in general. Having said that, the number of our casualities in conquering and occupying a hostile nation on the other side of the globe is astoundingly small, strictly in military terms. Our military successes in Iraq will not give our enemies comfort.

D.C. Thank you for the clarification. I especially enjoy your last sentence regarding d-c.

DC,

Well, Stalin is special...but, well call me old fashioned, but I think it was really miscalculating the horrors of a Russian winter. The Germans didn't do all that well in Finland either.

Garth,

I'd rather concentrate on yakking about knives and money too. However, I think my thinking about post Gulf War II Iraq is quite common, both in America and abroad.

Ryan,

Yes, gum chewers have a hard lot in life.

Singapore's jury is still out. We don't know if it is going to truly grow up to become a country that can stand on its own until dictator-in-disguise Lee kicks the bucket.

I am not optimistic on Singapore going foward.