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Bubble Bubble Everywhere


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2006 May 4, 2:38pm   36,830 views  364 comments

by astrid   ➕follow (0)   💰tip   ignore  

Gimme some of that bubble, boy!

Gold is now at $675/oz and silver at $13.88/oz. Do you think their prices will go up, down, or sideways (into government intervention)? Do you think there IS a bubble in gold? Do you think there WILL be a bubble in gold?

Also, please share your thoughts about any other bubble you see on the horizon.

This is a troll and postmodernism free zone. Trolls and postmodernists will be posting at their own peril. Haikus will be most welcomed.

PS - all comments posted here should not be considered investment advice. Always do your own research before making investment decisions.

#bubbles

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281   astrid   2006 May 6, 1:59am  

SFWoman,

I thought California weather was due to the perfect balance of hot inland valleys and cold ocean waters.

Goober,

Your swamps are probably like no other place in the world, because every swamp/estuary is above average. Your weather, however, is not. The important thing is that you get good shrimp and crabs from the swamps.

GC,

I'm a very strange person. I seem to understand other people's motivations better than I understand my own.

282   surfer-x   2006 May 6, 2:29am  

To quote the most famous of the boomer hoard,
Happiness is a warm gun, bang bang shoot shoot.

did all of the boomers turn in their hippy cards? or just the ones in Californika? Hmm well it seem there are many in DC that did also. I really want to know the name of the boomer genius that discovered that less for you equals more for them. Nice work fellas.

Can you really borrow your way to prosperity?

283   surfer-x   2006 May 6, 2:33am  

I thought California weather was due to the perfect balance of hot inland valleys and cold ocean waters.

Actually this has been studied in detail and the most recent data suggests that the Californika weather is due to a combination of pompous blowhard assholes in the OC coupled with an inversion layer in the Bay Area caused by pompous self-indulged blowhard assholes. These two weather phenomena come together around $an Luis Obispo, where you have pompous blowhard self-indulged blowhard assholes. The combination causes an upheaval that draws the hot valley air towards the Ocean. This pleases both the pompous self-indulged blowhard assholes in the Bay Area and pompous blowhard assholes down in the OC.

284   DinOR   2006 May 6, 3:06am  

X,

Exactly as I suspected!

Has any one seen the show "I shouldn't be Alive"?

I saw one episode that should have been titled "My parents regret the day I was born"!

Boomer thrillseeker (and all around dickhead) talks younger (also thrillseeking dickhead) into traversing The Sea of Cortez on a freaking Hobie Cat. Please to notice the word "Hobie". (Every bit of 14" of sea going fury!)

Anyway cheesedick decides that they are overloaded so he leaves the wet suits and survival gear behind. Not three hours into this misadventure they are in deep kim-chee. Seriously overloaded and drawing water they encounter a storm, capsize, cut loose of their water and run aground hard on an uninhabited island that might as well be on Venus. So they freeze that night and bake the next day with only a freaking cactus for food. I guess on day 2 they discover that the previous nights delirium was actually a ballon! And it says? That's right, Cinco De Mayo. There won't be a boat on the water for another 5 days! Somehow boomer thrillseeker survives the blistering heat and punishing sand fleas until he goes on his next boomer misadventure.

Yo! A$$hole! Next time go to the f@cking Wisconsin Dells and get some sausages O.K?

I have had it!

285   DinOR   2006 May 6, 3:15am  

I can see a guy taking a risk to go after "Yamashita's Gold" or something but so much of this "risk taking" is risk for risk's sake. I don't need to slide down a bannister full of razor blades to know that it might be painful. Those of us that have done even the most casual of research regarding the Sea of Cortez know that it is only pleasant in Jimmy Buffet songs. Those islands are uninhabited for a f@cking reason. There is nothing there to sustain life. I once read that it was rumored that one of the islands was inhabited by cannibals. Small f@cking wonder. Dickheads.

286   Garth Farkley   2006 May 6, 4:15am  

DinOR,

There is no stronger addiction than adrenaline, IMHO. I did some skydiving in my youth. Those precious seconds of flying like a bird in free fall are an indescribably pure joy and thrill. It was one of the few things I know that could wipe my mind clean.

Foolish? Probably. After about 50 jumps and one reserve ride it was still wonderful fun and the view is breathtaking. But I was no longer afraid and that really scared me. Like any other drug one develops a tolerance to thrills. Still and all the memories follow close behind my wedding day and my son's birth.

I'm not a sailor so I can't judge the foolhardiness of the fellows you were watching. I guess every thrill seeker has a different "drug of choice." I'm on the wagon now, myself.

287   tsusiat   2006 May 6, 4:56am  

GF -

I wasn't saying that the Brits didn't take some casualties, what I was saying was, compared to the hype at the time, they took far less than expected, because the Argentines in the falklands themselves were ready to fold before it started.

In Iraq, in contrast, nobody expected the US to take significant casualties despite the numbers of troops involved.

I was merely pointing out with two examples that immediately popped to mind, that your blanket statement:

Strictly in military terms, I can’t think of any more lopsided, overwhelming miltary victory in modern history.

was a bit on the hyperbolic side.

I can think of other examples, Panama, even Afghanistan was easier and really is having a better outcome a few years on, as there are significant forces within Afghanistan supporting the outcome.

The US hasn't taken casualties on a level comparable to their adversaries since the civil war. Every war the balance shifts more and more in favour of the US, but conversely, US belief in the wars being fought amongst the general public seems to sink lower and lower.

288   astrid   2006 May 6, 5:13am  

tsusiat,

I think Gulf War I comes to mind. The outcome there was much better and the casualties were very low. At least amongst the Chinese, the US won enormous respect for their speedy execution and withdrawl.

289   Garth Farkley   2006 May 6, 6:24am  

Astrid,

Thanks for the NYT cite re affordability in Salinas . It is bizarre. All the newest and biggest homes are on the east side, which coincidentally has the largest concentration of Surenos and Nortenos. It's also where I saw the Spanish language street sign offering homes for sale "no money down." In other words, "You're broke and don't speak English? We want to sell you a house."

290   Garth Farkley   2006 May 6, 6:34am  

And another developing Nor Cal story: today the Sacramento MSA is a hair's breadth from its all-time historical high water mark in listing inventory established in '92. The population adjusted per capita figures are still substantially lower, but Johnny Cash already sang this song:

"How high's the water, Momma? Five feet high and risin'."

http://bubbletracking.blogspot.com/

291   astrid   2006 May 6, 10:18am  

Garth,

Yup, crazy world, isn't it?

In a way, this makes some sense. The prime BA areas were built out decades ago, and a goodly portion of the population bought in early and have very low mortgages. The prices in prime BA areas are now so exorbitant and the number of listings are so low that very can afford to buy in at any price. I'm guessing that the locals of Salinas, Santa Rosa, and Watsonville is suffering from a combination of price squeeze from BA refugees (who can afford more) and plentiful available housing, so a higher proportion of idiots are able to buy in and really hang themselves.

From BAP33's comments, it seems like Central Valley is suffering something similar, albeit with lower dollar amounts.

292   astrid   2006 May 6, 10:21am  

Surfer-X,

You're making those blowhards sound downright indispensible. :)

293   losstotheworld   2006 May 6, 12:49pm  

conor,
you must be a gold bug. I dont know about speculation, manipulation, central bankers plot to have wide swings in the price of gold so that the regular joe looses all his will power to invest in anything other than the fiat paper.

Case in point, the new etf in silver has probably let the TPTB to take such massive short positions, that even warren buffett may not like.

I like randy idea aout the cool calculating way of investing rather than using emotions while investing. Also i remember randy saying that he will start selling gold around 800$.

as for me i have 30-40 % in gold. also iam wanting to buy farm lands

294   astrid   2006 May 6, 1:12pm  

hessesfan,

The problem with cool calculation alone is that the world is not built on cool calculations, especially in the short run. If it was, no one would play lotteries and casinos would go bankrupt. Dot.com bubble and 200 P/E ratio China stocks would never exist. People aren't rational, and while dollar averaging and being conservative may (because even a cold rationalist can't predict the future with absolute certainty) be the best way to long for the long haul, you can miss a lot of speculation opportunities in the short run.

Re: farmland. If you're going directly for farmland, keep a close eye on the balance sheet. If this government starts cutting back in a serious manner, they may finally get around to attack ag subsidies. Also, fertilizers and ag chemicals are often derived from fossil fuel. Shipping costs and land reclaimation can also be a problem. Finally, keep an eye on the weather and dependable water supply. Very few people (yes, I know some do) get rich from farming.

295   Michael Holliday   2006 May 6, 2:37pm  

Hey, I was wondering of someone could help me out.

Umm...I'm thinking about buying some houses in the Bay Area as an investment & stuff...

What's up?

Should I go for it?

I heard you can make some pimp $$ bucks $$ flipping houses or renting them out.

Is it true?

296   astrid   2006 May 6, 2:48pm  

Hey, I was wondering if someone could help me out.

I'm giving up my real estate career and going back to pole dancing. Would someone lend me $5,000 for breast implants?

PS, what's better: silicone or saline?

PPS, do you think I should get butt implants?

297   astrid   2006 May 6, 2:55pm  

Hey, I was wondering if someone could help me out.

Someone offered to sell me a bridge in "Brooklyn" today. He said it was a real big bridge and I can go 103% neg am on financing. I know, it's a total winner.

Can someone tell me where "Brooklyn" is?

298   astrid   2006 May 6, 3:07pm  

(Hey Michael, I know you're kidding, I really admire the format)

Hey, I was wondering if someone could help me out.

A Minister Matuto of the Congo has contacted me to help him access a substantial Swiss bank account. He said we can go 70/30 on the deal after he gets the funds.

He said he needs to wire the money to my bank account and that he needs my bank account number.

How do I find out my bank account number?

299   astrid   2006 May 6, 4:46pm  

SP,

War is a nasty business. In the past societies have rationalized it behind nationalism and necessity, and maintained it through strict social herarchies. But since the bloody business of WWI, western societies have certainly shifted towards a more pacific mood. WWII added Japan and Germany to that list. A protracted and costly war will rip America apart, without any help from the Muslim world.

Furthermore, occupation is just a very nasty business. Vietnam was essentially an American occupation of South Vietnam while fighting Viet Cong guerillas. Just a terrible, soul wrenching business, and a failure.

I think we already bungled so much in Iraq so that now the primary question is damage control. Is it costlier to stay or costlier to go? I chose to go and live with the consequences of that decision.

Garth,

Since I'm dipping my foot back into the Iraq, I'd better answer the question you were quite properly posing to me. Do I think the American show of force will have a preventative effect on the miscreants in the Middleeast and beyond? I don't think so. I think America has bungled it up and made itself look weaker and more vulnerable. Furthermore, Iraq and Iran has lived through a very bloody war in its recent past. If the threat of war could persuade them from misbehavior, they had their lesson in the Iran-Iraq War and Gulf War I.

America has much more to lose in Iraq now. It hadn't been involved in such a bloody and morally ambiguous conflict in 30 years. What we do right and what we do wrong will be judged, by the international community and by Americans. This conflict could divide us again, albeit less than in Vietnam because of the all volunteer army. However, the all volunteer army is now having trouble meeting its recruitment goals.

Cold calculations aren't enough when we're dealing with hundred or thousands of young American lives. Americans don't truly believe in the goodness of imperialism, something taken for granted by every other empire in the history of the world. So when we use our forces to act, it better be a good reason, or we could lose our own soul over the conflict.

300   astrid   2006 May 6, 4:53pm  

SP,

The Russian desire for warm water ports is understandable (being a frozen second banana sucks), but England and Austria Hungary was pretty much controlling the Mediterrean between themselves, so a real warm water port wouldn't really solve their second banana status.

Plus, Czar Nicky and Kaiser Willie are just such funny guys. And the Czarina! Aren't you glad you didn't marry that crazy woman?

301   astrid   2006 May 6, 4:55pm  

The_Scum,

Hehe, nice renter name. Thanks for the recs, I certainly will look into them and look forward to hearing input about them from others here.

302   LILLL   2006 May 6, 4:57pm  

SP
Yeah...where the f@ck is George Carlin?

303   Garth Farkley   2006 May 6, 9:32pm  

Sacramento Metropolitan Statistical Area now at its all-time historical high inventory per http://bubbletracking.blogspot.com/

Also foreclosures and pre-foreclosures up again in Sacramento city yesterday per
http://sacramentohousingbubble.blogspot.com/

I'm no longer agnostic. Alert the media.

304   astrid   2006 May 7, 12:51am  

Peter (who is not Peter P),

Thanks for correcting me and for your informative post. Do you know a good place to grow lychee? :P

305   Different Sean   2006 May 7, 1:13am  

what's a postmodernist?

306   astrid   2006 May 7, 2:15am  

DS,

"what’s a postmodernist?"

Tell me you've given in to sarcasm.

307   LILLL   2006 May 7, 4:18am  

i

308   astrid   2006 May 7, 4:28am  

Ha Ha,

You still owe an apology to a certain member of this blog.

309   LILLL   2006 May 7, 4:49am  

test

310   LILLL   2006 May 7, 4:50am  

test test

311   LILLL   2006 May 7, 4:54am  

HaHa
So you made more Hahas to add to your Hahas?

312   LILLL   2006 May 7, 5:56am  

On June 20 there will be a green building tradeshow at the Moscone Center in SF.
I wonder if it really be informative on nuances of green builing or just a builders sales pitch.

Here is the list of speakers...
Thomas Hoyt, Founder/Mission Advisor, McStain Neighborhoods, Louisville, CO
Jeff Jacobs, Project Manager, Centex Homes, San Ramon, CA
Mark LaLiberte, President, Building Knowledge Inc., Minneapolis, MN
Vernon McKown, President of Sales, Ideal Homes, Norman, OK
John Suppes, Principal, Clarum Homes, Palo Alto, CA
Brooke Warrick, President, American LIVES, Carmel Valley, CA

313   surfer-x   2006 May 7, 9:13am  

testes

314   surfer-x   2006 May 7, 9:14am  

My friend sells old books and I came across this title in her collection "collected short stories from the Balkans" am I the only one that thinks a book complied of small stories from the balkans is funny? Is the book balkanized?

315   LILLL   2006 May 7, 9:22am  

X
Did you see SNL last night? They had a whole song about testes... with Tom Hanks...who was actually quite funny!

316   surfer-x   2006 May 7, 9:34am  

@Linda, yeah it was pretty funny. wanna see something really funny?

tinyurl.com/o62kk

317   LILLL   2006 May 7, 9:56am  

X
Your url didn't work.

318   surfer-x   2006 May 7, 9:57am  

@linda you have to cut and paste it into a window, try this one

www.nbc.com/Video/videos/snl_1439_natalieraps.shtml

319   LILLL   2006 May 7, 10:32am  

http://tinyurl.com/lynpk

Surfer-X
I think you'll like this one.
Have you seen beer boy before???
I know it's made the rounds before.

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