patrick.net

Fair enough. But then again, some people are masters of acting. Let me quote a cliche -- how does one do e with that thing, I mean that thing, you know, that thing, that little thing on e, no, no, the other way, yeah, ', that is it, what do you call it? -- "nothing is what it seems." We can go on and on.

GC,

Perhaps Kim is a Manchurian candidate, so to speak. However, that is speculative and not well backed by facts. Most Korean watchers think he's got a mind of his own, and quite a wily mind too.

I'm not educated enough to converse about the "that thing."

SFWoman,

then you will lose the low humidity weather of Norcal, and turn us into FL. Cold currents meeting warm land is exactly what makes the mediterranean weather so desirable, warm, humid weather is a dime a dozen.

There are only 4 spots in the world where you get mild weather with low humidity, the first one is of course Mediterranean Italian coast/ French Cote d'Azur, the second spot is us, third down along the Chilean coast and the last around Perth, Australia. We certainly don't want to lose this treasured seat, do we? :-)

"Imagine the beaches of Marin or Sonoma with 84 degree water. Ahh."

That sounds excellent! Though I fear such a gift would up the BA intangibles up even further and double the rent for me!

(I heard it's the cold ocean waters that give BA such mild year around weather. Warmer ocean waters would change the weather to be more like the East Coast.)

Owneroccupier,

What about South Africa? I thought it also has a Mediterrean climate.

South Africa unfortunatel (or fortunately?) has warm waters.

Astrid,

You referred to our military as stretched thin. Another way to think of it is tough, lean and battle hardened. An army is not like a bank account that gets drawn down by using it. It's more like a muscle, or better yet a boxer who gets tougher through work. Certainly his opponents will respect and fear the tough, highly experienced fighter.

I saw a headline the other day -- I didn't get to read the article -- that one of the Iranian generals contradicted claims that Iran will punish the US for "evil deeds" by Israel. I tend to believe that our adversaries have more respect for our military than most Americans do. I'm certain that none of them want to face us on the battlefield, more so now when the latest generation has practical combat experience. Our military has always been huge on training, but it's not combat.

In my view, our adversaries fear and respect military power more than most of us do. War for most Americans is an abstraction and largely a moral issue. For the middle east in particular -- and especially Iran after its horrific war with Iraq -- war and military power are concrete issues of daily life. I'm inclined to believe that, though they may resent us or even hate us, our enemies respect us more than they did before we invaded Afghanistan and Iraq.

"South Africa unfortunatel (or fortunately?) has warm waters."

Hmmm, one more reason not to move there. I heard that Iraq and Saudi Arabia has terrible summer heat and humidity due to warm Gulf waters. I imagine South Africa has something similar.

Garth,

The US Army is having serious problems recruiting new troops and maintaining its troop level. I don't know the Arab perspective but I know the Chinese one. Gulf War I was a revelation for the Mainland Chinese, due to America's extreme efficiency. Gulf War II showed America wasn't invincible and can be worn down, just like it was worn down in Korea and Vietnam.

The US military was designed to handle two combat engagements at a time. Right now, it's occupied in Iraq and Afganistan. If America wanted to teach Iran or North Korea a lesson, where are the troops coming from?
The Bush administration sent fewer troops to Iraq than Pentagon war plans called for. The consequence is that Iraq is now one big unsecured mess outside of the Green Zone.

How are the troops not stretched thin? National guard troops, who enlisted in the belief that they would primarily serve state side, now find themselves in second and third tours of duty in Iraq. You can call these people battle hardened, but they shouldn't be in Iraq at all. They should be state side, ready to help local police with emergency situations. That was what they originally signed up for.

I didn't reference Israel for US involvement. I was thinking of the Israelis, an undeniably tough and determined people, who won war after war against vastly superior numbers. Yet, has these military successes brought them peace? No! They're still struggling with a hostile Palestinian population at home and menacing neighbors.

Astrid,

You've made many assertions that differ from my own impressions of our recent history and current situation. Perhaps we'll take them up in the Iraq thread when we have the energy and can stand to beat up on each other for a while.

I will note one specific disagreement, to follow up on on my original point. Strictly in military terms our invasion and occupation of Iraq has surely heightened our adversaries' fear of US military power. Strictly in military terms, I can't think of any more lopsided, overwhelming miltary victory in modern history.

Please understand I'm not arguing for or against the war in this post. I'm only suggesting one consequence that is rarely discussed. And please also know that I grieve for our wounded and maimed soldiers and the families of our war dead. In fact, I also grieve for the dead and wounded Iraquis. I'm not a fan of killing in general. Having said that, the number of our casualities in conquering and occupying a hostile nation on the other side of the globe is astoundingly small, strictly in military terms. Our military successes in Iraq will not give our enemies comfort.

D.C. Thank you for the clarification. I especially enjoy your last sentence regarding d-c.

DC,

Well, Stalin is special...but, well call me old fashioned, but I think it was really miscalculating the horrors of a Russian winter. The Germans didn't do all that well in Finland either.

Garth,

I'd rather concentrate on yakking about knives and money too. However, I think my thinking about post Gulf War II Iraq is quite common, both in America and abroad.

Ryan,

Yes, gum chewers have a hard lot in life.

Singapore's jury is still out. We don't know if it is going to truly grow up to become a country that can stand on its own until dictator-in-disguise Lee kicks the bucket.

I am not optimistic on Singapore going foward.

D.C., I re-read your reply to correct my earlier statement. I couldn't control my laughter. I learned something today. Thank you.

GF--

I would have to say Britain and Argentina in the Falkland Islands was much more lopsided and impressive than Iraq, for what it was.

For pure "lopsided", Grenada also comes to mind.

Lets go invade Lichtenstein. They must have something useful for the fat average American.

SQT,

Things to keep in mind when interviewing personal assistants. German fluency and dystopianism. And stay away from the postmodernists, they never do as they're told. :)

As for military reserve. Well, I have met the other side of the story, and there were plenty of kids who signed up thinking they wouldn't fight in a war like Iraq. Maybe it's different for the airforce.

Argentina sank two British warships, if I remember correctly. One destroyer and a frigate. I distinctly remember staring at the photos of the burning Sheffield on display outside the military headquarter near my home, at an age when I was intensely interested in all things naval. It was disastrous for the British even though they won in the end. The French anti-ship missles were quite good. And the British made a mistake of using aluminum in their warships' superstructure.

This time around, the Russians were said to have sold supersonic anti-ship missles to the Iranians.

Owneroccupier,

Benevalent dictatorships do have that pitfall. They're often more efficient than their alternatives over the short term, but they do run into problems in the long run. Singapore appears to be run more or less as a paternalistic corporate state. Singapore may be in for a hard time, especially if they can't maintain their importance as a port.

I wouldn't bet against Singapore yet, however. Taiwan has managed to make a relatively good transition to democracy with a lower basis. Singapore's population is well educated and the infrastucture is good, the people just have to start thinking for themselves.

GWII has shown that while American forces can be worn down, they will still win any direct confrontation with ease. WRT Israel, they are in a strategic position that precludes the possibility of a "win" no matter how good their forces are. I would say that while well-disciplined and battle-hardened troops are a necessary condition for winning, it is not a sufficient condition. (It is also important to distinguish between battle-tested and battle-worn.)

If our goal in a war with Iran is to remove its ability to invade Iraq, and by extension threaten the Saudis, then that is a war that can be easily won. If our goal is regime change, we will fail. (Note that the first case does not claim to make the Strait of Hormuz safe for shipping.)

(This post may be less than coherent. If so, I blame the tequila.)

"Note that the first case does not claim to make the Strait of Hormuz safe for shipping."

Hmmm...

Maybe we can start a post about shipping and globalization.

Or maybe we can have a weekend food and drinks recipe exchange...

Or maybe we can talk about World War I and the Russian lust for warm water, year round ports...

tsusiat,

I believe you missed G.F.'s point.

But, I am sure the US' rivals were watching and learning. One cannot always so readily tip his hand.

The US was forced to take action in Afghanistan and Iraq, or face a dreadful consequence of losing control ......

From Wikipedia (a source one cannot always trust):

On 27 September, 2005, only three days before leaving his post as Chairman of Joint Chief of Staff, Richard B. Myers said of the war in Iraq that, "the outcome and consequences of defeat are greater than World War II."

-cannot always
+should not always

GC,

Who is your go to guy for social theory? I'm not trying to be antagonistic, I'm just curious.

astrid,
That's what your local Irish Pub(TM) is for! (The 'TM' is there because no self-respecting /real/ Irish pub would carry anything beyond Guinness and friends.)

There is a story somewhere about a Marine general tasked to play the Iraq role while wargaming the invasion. As I recall, they had to change the simulation rules each time he did Very Bad Things to the invasion force.

For what it's worth, I don't think the insurgency card can be played in any likely conflicts in East Asia. Conflict there (be it DPRK vs. ROK, or PRC vs. ROC) would be suicidal on the part of the aggressor, as all we have to do to win is to cut supply lines and destroy large-scale military formations. The local governments are more than capable of mopping up.

requiem,

I'm a poor student! My drinking budget goes for knife related "investments"! :) But I found a half bottle of cream sherry so I'm good. I like dark ales and pub food, but I'm not a fan of the pub crowd or pub noise.

I can't assess DPRK but I agree about the Chinese situation. Invading ROC is economic suicide and the PRC government would never do it. I mentioned the dam blowing massive retailiation a couple days ago, but Owneroccupier poo pooed it and said the situation would never to that point. PRC just like trotting it out because its a legacy issue and good for stirring nationalism as needed. Kind of like Republicans and abortion.

Kind of like Republicans and abortion.

Not to thread jack, but it was so entertaining to hear about Goss resigning. Especially when it's been hardly a week since the rumors about him attending the wrong poker parties. Maybe he really did get photographed.

Tsusiat,

I don't want to come off wrong. I'm not glorifying our invasion of Iraq though I did support it and still do. We're not not done by a long shot and it could still come to a very bad end for the Sunni minority after we eventually leave. That would leave a vacuum that Iran would surely fill. But we can’t just walk away now and let the blood bath ensue.

But Tsusiat, you can’t really compare Britain’s brief naval/air war to repel the invading Argentine army from a tiny island with the invasion and occupation, boots and all, in Iraq. Even in the short Falklands operation the Brits lost over 250 KIA. To date the coalition in Iraq has lost 2063 KIA to hostile fire. (This number is all coalition KIA, not total fatalities including for example heart attacks and motor vehicle accidents.) Let me repeat, I mourn for every dead soldier and their families. But strictly in military terms this is an stunningly small number of casualties for the scope of this operation. Which brings up a final point, the administration did not “overrule the pentagon war planners” on troop strength in Iraq. Some generals did ask for more troops. And Powell has always emphasized “overwhelming strength” since it worked for him in Panama. But, as I recall the Turkish legislature nixed plans to bring more troops in from the North. And, the final war plan was developed by the Pentagon and SecDef together after considering many options. The final plan was also clearly the best plan in hindsight. More troops would only mean more targets for insurgents with IED’s – by far the main source of our post-occupation casualties. Even so, the argument about “incompetent” administration and inadequate troop strength is a perfect talking point, because it is impossible to disprove as the road not taken. For me, however, it’s laughable for armchair generals to criticize the “incompetent” administration for the successful execution of the most one-sided military achievement in modern history. (To Compare Grenada is of course a joke.)

PS

I don't mean that it's laughable to criticize the decision to go to war.

Garth,

The problem is that these armchair generals have the war planning, etc on their side. And as the webmaster said, there's still no evidence of Iraqi WMDs or direct links to Muslim extremist groups. This isn't Monday morning quarterbacking, there were plenty of warning from the beginning.

Even now, it may be better for Americans to withdrawl rather than end up with something akin to Vietnam or the Soviet occupation of Afganistan. It would be better if America never went in, but that's already impossible to undue. The question is, do we go with the plan of people who warned against the actions and were ignore? Or do we do with people who promised us the moon and the stars and delivered a quagmire?

The decision to go to war, the entire concept of a pre-emptive war in general and the specific decision to undertake a pre-emptive strike in Iraq are hardly laughable concerns. Many of my rather hawkish friends opposed the war on these grounds and they present powerful arguments. But that really is another thread.

So Astrid, I promise I'm really not baiting you. I do believe in nuance, though. This war is costing us dearly in blood and treasure, and maybe even in the cost to our soul as a nation, I don't know. But if nothing else, I believe our demonstration of naked power and willingness to use it will impress the kinds of people we need to bribe, bully and cajole as as we continue fighting the brutal, misogynistic Islamic terrorist lunatics.

Astrid,

Why is it a quagmire?

Oh, yes, Astrid,

Unlike O'Reilly, I really will let you have the last word.

Astrid,

It's difficult to try to figure out other people. I don't hold a systematic world view, nor subscribe to a particular school thought or a particular thinker. I extrapolate from my own observations and daily experiences. If you understand yourself very well, you can understand others well, for deep down we are all the same.

The Philippines is an absolute must. Yeah, it's humid, no doubt but the Sulu Sea is like bath water. Best to take the beach party beverages down about 10' to get the beer/coke down to a "cool" 65 degrees. The first 12 pack is kind of rough but after that who cares?

Garth,

Nah, I'll let you have the last word. We have very different mental filters on the subject, so it'll be hard to reconcile our views. Lets call a truce and go on to other stuff on the main board.

SFWoman,

I thought California weather was due to the perfect balance of hot inland valleys and cold ocean waters.

Goober,

Your swamps are probably like no other place in the world, because every swamp/estuary is above average. Your weather, however, is not. The important thing is that you get good shrimp and crabs from the swamps.

GC,

I'm a very strange person. I seem to understand other people's motivations better than I understand my own.

To quote the most famous of the boomer hoard,
Happiness is a warm gun, bang bang shoot shoot.

did all of the boomers turn in their hippy cards? or just the ones in Californika? Hmm well it seem there are many in DC that did also. I really want to know the name of the boomer genius that discovered that less for you equals more for them. Nice work fellas.

Can you really borrow your way to prosperity?

I thought California weather was due to the perfect balance of hot inland valleys and cold ocean waters.

Actually this has been studied in detail and the most recent data suggests that the Californika weather is due to a combination of pompous blowhard assholes in the OC coupled with an inversion layer in the Bay Area caused by pompous self-indulged blowhard assholes. These two weather phenomena come together around $an Luis Obispo, where you have pompous blowhard self-indulged blowhard assholes. The combination causes an upheaval that draws the hot valley air towards the Ocean. This pleases both the pompous self-indulged blowhard assholes in the Bay Area and pompous blowhard assholes down in the OC.

X,

Exactly as I suspected!

Has any one seen the show "I shouldn't be Alive"?

I saw one episode that should have been titled "My parents regret the day I was born"!

Boomer thrillseeker (and all around dickhead) talks younger (also thrillseeking dickhead) into traversing The Sea of Cortez on a freaking Hobie Cat. Please to notice the word "Hobie". (Every bit of 14" of sea going fury!)

Anyway cheesedick decides that they are overloaded so he leaves the wet suits and survival gear behind. Not three hours into this misadventure they are in deep kim-chee. Seriously overloaded and drawing water they encounter a storm, capsize, cut loose of their water and run aground hard on an uninhabited island that might as well be on Venus. So they freeze that night and bake the next day with only a freaking cactus for food. I guess on day 2 they discover that the previous nights delirium was actually a ballon! And it says? That's right, Cinco De Mayo. There won't be a boat on the water for another 5 days! Somehow boomer thrillseeker survives the blistering heat and punishing sand fleas until he goes on his next boomer misadventure.

Yo! A$$hole! Next time go to the f@cking Wisconsin Dells and get some sausages O.K?

I have had it!