patrick.net

Conor,

Well said. I don't know if those LTCM guys had a brain. My buddies and I, all togther an ex-nuclear physicist, an ex CS theoretician, and an ex aspiring theoretical physicist-experimental jack of all trades-occasional hacker-lover of women, checked the Nobel Prize-winning theory that those guys came up with. It was a very simple shit, physics applied to economics.

Mucking with math equations does not need a brain.

On my way to work, I talked to a carpenter who's fixing stuff at our condo complex. I was surprised that this guy, in his late 50's-60's, had gone to college to study sociology in the 60s. He knew what he was talking about. He said he was once rich and made 6 figures shortly after college, back when 6 figures was something to boast to your college buddy (perhaps even your parents). I did ask him about RE market in the Seattle area. He coyed. (Did I spell correctly?)

I love talking to these old folks.

Here’s some advice — if you don’t know what palladium is, don’t invest in it.

IMO, one does not need to know what X is before investing in X. One only need to know what other people think of X. It is 100% human psychology. Fundamental analysis will only derail your feel.

Conor,

LOL! I was hoping someone would tell me. I know it turns up for use as a catalyst and in alloys. I'm not planning to invest any of the above (except maybe platinum), but it's nice to get some feedback about them.

Conor,

I commend you on your fiscal austerity. Living below your means is the key to long term prosperity. I just hate to hear a young guy investing in something with such a historically low return as gold at a historically high water mark. Gold's return is low for a reason; it bubbles when people fear inflation and retraces when they calm back down.

I'm not going to try to talk you out of gold, but if you own no stocks, you're overexposed to metals. Diversify, diversify. Cash @ 5% return isn't a bad safe bet, but as young as you are, you should be in the stock market at 70% or above. The only serious inflation we've experienced has been housing inflation. If you believe the majority of the people on this board, that's been an abnormal result of the foolish borrowing habits of FBs and the foolish lending habits of dark forces.

Gold sits. Gold produces nothing. Make your money work for you. Invest it. Buying gold is speculating.

Good luck!

FRIFY says:
Good luck!

Indeed. Conor needs it if he follows your advice.

Peter P,

It's not 100% human psychology. There are always supply and demand constraints. If diamond is as common as graphite, no one would pay so much for them, no matter how much it sparkles.

So you still need to analyze for production capacity, current availability, usage, etc. Going all meta on mass psychology is insufficient. You need to go meta-meta to figure out what figures into mass psychology, and reality is a surprising important component.

Seriously, studies have shown that timing is very important even for long-term stock investing. So this putting your 70% in the stock market is pure garbage, propagated by people who were lucky enough to live their useful period of life during 1980-2000.

Living below your means is the key to long term prosperity.

With all due respect, the key to long term prosperity is being born at the right place at the right time. The next best thing is doing the right thing at the right time.

One cannot gain much wealth just by saving. It is making the right call at the right moment that counts.

Gold sits. Gold produces nothing. Make your money work for you. Invest it. Buying gold is speculating.

One can surely invest in his own speculation.

NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE

Indeed. Conor needs it if he follows your advice.

Haven't unloaded all of your Gold portfolio yet, GC? ;-) You can't get my goat, but you might give Linda my vote...

Conor,

Absolutely. Common sense and street smarts are not taught at schools. As a matter of fact, colleges make a point not to teach these things. Well, for one thing, the profs don't know how to for they lack common sense ans street smarts. For another, if they do, meaning teaching something one naturally picks up in the streets or inherit from parents, how can colleges justify their existence and high tuitions?

One more body bag added to the altar of majority rule (woops, democracy).

FRIFY,

I am watching. I am seriously contemplating dumping my Au & Ag shares. I will hold my Palladium shares, even though these garbage stocks have gone no where while Pd the metal is going through the roof. Speaking of garbage stocks, did I tell that I once bought a mining company for 8 cents a share? It proceeded to gradually drop to 0.1 cent a share.

Seriously, you have to learn to ferret out gold from my nasty jokes.

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=VFINX&t=my&l=on&z=m&q=l&c=VGPMX

Connor will be 40 in 15 years...

What's the point? 400% return over 15 years is nothing to write home about.

Conor,

At least some of the Western water use issues can be solved by legislation and lifestyle changes. Nobody should have a lawn in the middle of a desert. Growing rice in a desert is also a bad idea. The old western water rights need to be altered and bought out to accommodate contemporary water usage.

GC,

What’s the point? 400% return over 15 years is nothing to write home about.

How about 300%? How about -300% if you bought in the 80s?

Seriously, you have to learn to ferret out gold from my nasty jokes.

Despite the fact that I'd take a crowbar to your head if you cracked some of your jokes next to my kids, I confess that I find the occasional remark amusing. Free speech all the way. I just hope our younger audience realizes that you're usually not serious.

Ok, kids, gotta go. Watch your back Connor.

I can envision technology that can easily solve the water problem using distillation or electrolysis. All we need is energy.

Or we can start to recycle water.

The one thing I can say is that you just can't try to serve too many masters. Earlier SP referred to me as an "expert" in debt paper. I'm flattered! The truth is I know a lot of experts in debt paper. These guys run trades that dwarf any thing I've EVER done and they do it every day! Why would I pull my hair out when all I have to do is call some guy in New Jersey. They're only too happy to help if I throw some business at them once in a while.

I see where FRIFY is coming from and by and large he's right. Conor is young enough to overcome any kind of prolonged downturn (yes even RE) but he's doing it his way. I say step aside. "Any man brave enough to open up a Datek account on August 1, 2000 can drink from my canteen any day!"

*Robert Duvall in Apocalypse Now!

Uh, I don't need to LIVE in Las Vegas, actually a license and a P.O box would suffice and while I'm there I promise not to drink any water.

charlie,

Where do I get mine? Just send me the stickers, I'll figure out where to stick them.

Charlie,

I've got another idea. Make stickers that say "HELOCed second home", you can stick them on big SUVs. And make sure you get the nasty cheap sort of sticker paper, so they won't come off easily.

Disclaimer: This post is solely for recreational purposes. I am not responsible for any property damage or emotional traumas that come out of this post.

I want to see what Lou Dobbs has to say about the NSA. Maybe they are keeping track of my phone calls…

I feel safer that the NSA is listening to phone calls.

Seriously, NSA should have no problems recruiting their wire-tapping staff. I am sure there are millions of people worldwide who would PAY to listen to other people's phone conversations.

But how does one get into iron and steel? Any tradeable papers?

So will someone tell me what palladium is?

But the border is open!

We need a Great Wall of America or just a very long and tall fence. Border enforcement is important.

N.F., I see. Thanks. A wrong joke at the wrong time.

The following is serious:
As a matter of fact, this tracking stuff they are doing is a very interesting problem and requires very clever algorithms. Clever math. In particular, graph theory. Perhaps the Google guys can help. Or the Cornell prof, who published the algorithm before the Google guys went to start their company, can help.

Peter P,

No. We need jail sentences for employers of illegal. Cutting off demand is the best way to attack the supply problem.

Or we could built a really big moat.

The price for Iron ore jumped 75% earlier this year. What makes you think it's going to jump again next year?

No. We need jail sentences for employers of illegal. Cutting off demand is the best way to attack the supply problem.

That too. The purpose of the fence is to keep away potential terrorists.

That said, we need a sensible way to let people come in legally.

I like the moat idea. Perhaps that is the next big design feature of McMansions.

PeterP.
There's a book my son read about the border to Mexico in the future.It's called 'House of the Scorpion'. Essentially the land at the border is renamed Aztlan and becomes a farmland to grow opium poppies. Anybody trying to get through is turned into an ejit(a robotized worker) Of course, by that time, most are trying to escape INTO Mexico! :)

Ha!

Invest in copper cookware.

That is why I like Copper. It’s war material.

WW3 "strategic" materials tend to be heavier than lead.

And I like war.

Explain.

"The world will be flooded with oil within a year."

Yes, we'll be like those poor Valdez seabirds and otters.

Astrid: palladium, in the oldest form, comes from the ancient greek, as in a statue of someone named Pallas.

Amnesty with a wall?
I know people scream about it, but like it or not you don't make drastic changes to the workforce without having to paying for it. Legalize the lot, work out a distribution schedule, and put up a wall. Actually, make it cheaper/faster/safer to come legally and the coyotes will go out of business.

WRT tracking, the Pen Register Act does provide some restrictions on the ability of law enforcement to gain access to such records. However, since the information does not seem to be constitutionally protected, it seems to be OK if the telecom companies are willing to provide it. This may create liability issues for those companies, of course.

Aside from any interesting technical aspects, I think this is a clear case of the divide between morality and law. Hopefully it will end once the NSA takes out the linch-pin of the terrorist communications by killing Kevin Bacon.

requiem,

They'll also have to kill Lois Weisberg and many other actors. Sadly, Kevin Bacon is #668 in connectiveness, according to IMDB stats.

http://www.gladwell.com/1999/1999_01_11_a_weisberg.htm

Conor,

You appear to be sophisticated enough to employ more modern "post-diversification" diversification models to your holdings. You seem to wish to express sentiment, so I suggest you look at the Black-Litterman model. Here is a starter resource. I have others if you're serious about it. It's tough to find any tools that do it (at least free ones), but you can do it yourself in Excel if you can handle linear programming.

At the minimum, BL will give you an idea about just how much exposure you are taking as a result of your sentiment.

Peter P asked GC to explain his statement: "I like war."

GC replied:

Explain? The sentence speaks for itself.

Well, yes, GC. The sentence does speak for itself. One gathers that you like war.

But the sentence doesn't explain itself. What would possess you to say such a thing? Is it a joke?

I don't get it.