patrick.net

Blog party? Blarty?
Hey, I'm gonna be in SB (Goleta) Memo weekend, right after camping in Kings Canyon (by the way, anyone know where "Lady Lake" is?).
If I'm in SB's "ghetto"...I'll be sure to look for all the cruisers w/flashing lights bustin' up the blog fun :)

Watching the housing bubble burst in slow motion is so much more fun than if it would happen quickly. I get to say, I told you so, for a couple of years more. I fear though, that this time, it will happen more quickly than the last.

SJ_Jim, stop on by!

"All I can say is this…I was watching a live Streamed Quote Ticker as the Dow was dropping. Between minus 230-249, it had a very fast and furious fall, and then as it pushed up against -250, it just amazingly stopped & reversed. I’ve never seen anything like it and found it to be very unusual. "

I was rather amazed; I'm pretty well diversified, and everything seemed to be down down down today (except for very small caps that are (seem to be) very very random). Anyone know of *anything* that was up today?

"Watching the housing bubble burst in slow motion is so much more fun than if it would happen quickly. I get to say, I told you so, for a couple of years more. I fear though, that this time, it will happen more quickly than the last. "

Mike, LOL! Where are you, BTW?

"SJ_Jim, stop on by! "
Wld love to crash the Blarty! But w/shame I must confess that I hate the t'killa w/out mas de lime flavor + ice + salt; but I bet that could be arranged! Si?
But how to get the location info? Someone must be able to get/give my email addy.?

Anyone know of *anything* that was up today?

commodities seem to be crashing everywhere. meant to be due to higher interest rates, but i think it is investor fear of WWIII breaking out after dubya told the world's press that the australian prime minister had no hair and was ugly...

The Australian share market should open sharply weaker as US and European stocks were routed overnight on concerns of higher global interest rates.

The Dow Jones fell almost two per cent while UK shares dropped nearly three per cent on inflation concerns, with the Australian market also expected to be hit by weaker base metal and oil prices.

The resources sector is expected to come under concerted pressure, particularly the majors BHP Billiton, Rio Tinto and Woodside.

On the Sydney Futures Exchange, the June share price index was 100 points weaker at 5112.

I absolutely hate when they put the "curbs in!" We all understand the implications of programmed trading but this is a FREE MARKET damn it! No one is held captive here against their will. If you want to sell..... then sell. One of the things that caught my eye yesterday was the sense that traders are now betting that the FED won't step in to prop up the bubble. With all of the talk about how rising rents will impact CPI it was as if the market was looking for immediate reassurance that rates would be contained. They were looking for a "hug".

This makes almost no sense. All throughout the rate reduction cycle the FED was unconcerned (or oblivious, which I doubt) that home prices were escalating at unprecedented rates. Now somebody's rent goes from $1,000 to $1,050 and they may be forced to act to "contain" it?

That is one nasty looking curve today on the Dow.

Mike/aka Sage,

I'm really torn as to wether I would prefer to see this thing implode over night or if we should be pulling for a protracted "dull aching pain"? On the one hand if we were to see the rightful "correction" of 20 to 50% by Monday, that would be great! At least we'd have a pauper's chance to see genuine appreciation of the sort to give our net worth's and retirements meaningful and lasting contribution. Done and done.

On the other hand the "bubbletainment" factor is nothing to trifle at! Just knowing what we know about bubbles (while aware of it in 2000) this thing has been a stone gas baby! If we do encounter the classic "two hit fight" (one where homedebtors get hit once and then they "hit" the floor) I would be almost immediately thrust back into the role of dutiful homeowner with all of the luggage that implies. With comments from BB like the "the cooling in housing is orderly" (or words to that effect) and realtors saying things like "there is now some balance in the market"or "we needed a breather" I'm just having way too much fun. Just think, if it all crashed tomorrow what would we talk about a X's blog party?

Dinor,
For me, I'd much rather see a swift fall. For one, I'm only here for 3 more years, which is tied to the cost of housing. If the prices came down enough in 3 years, I might( and the key word there is might) buy something. But if not, I'm outta here. So a slow fall would take years. it would be nice to know that at least I had a fighting chance so that my choice was well informed.
From personal observation I can say that the early spring bustling activity I saw around my neighborhood seems to have slowed down already. 2 houses that were pending are now back up, and nothing else has sold. Seems to me like the time period of unsold inventory is on it's way back to February levels.

I might also ad that a fast fall would be better for the local and state economy in the long term. There is a lot of businesses and individuals packing bags, so if the key reason for moving is out of the equation, the sooner the state can get back towards a substainable economy.

Wait a minute. I may have just answered my own question.

When your rent goes from $1,000 to $1,050 you just have to "take the hit". Perhaps skip that mid morning latte and a movie or two? Ask for a raise or take on a part time job.

When your mortgage payment resets from $3,900 to OMG I can't believe it! Simply call a mortgage broker for the 4th time in 3 years, do a cash out re-fi "to get caught up on some bills" take that much deserved vacation and slide further into debt with the standard procession. From 30 yr. FRM to 2/28 ARM to IO to ? This is pretty much how it's worked. The mortgage stats pretty much speak for themselves.

SP,
Not sure if I'd equate flyers in the box being grabbed to the sucess of a home being sold. People are like little raccoons. They like shiny things, so naturally, they'll grab something that's just sitting there. The boxes in front of all the homes that've been sitting for sale all winter always stay empty, yet there they sit, unsold. Sometimes I wonder if some of these yuppity people have been so obsessed with housing that driving around looking at flyers and homes is their only form of self entertainment.

- whoops. I meant to say that of the friends of mine who BOUGHT, they seem to be the ones that buy more stuff.

SP,

Take heart! I think the fact that this was a rental is the cause for all of the interest. It just seems to want to scream distressed property! I haven't been there so I can't say for sure but my guess is your "lookers" are wanna be flippers just gravitating toward it b/c they are in "survey mode". Like I say the specuvestor is very much a mom and pop operation. To my knowledge there are no national chain, franchises or major players in the business of flipping houses. No evil corporate types. These were your neighbors.

SP- one more thing about foolish money. The fact that construction companys can still get away for passing a loft off as a house that can be sold for 600k is proof enough that if you can sell what a few years ago was considered starvin' artist housing to uber-yuppie SF metropolitanites that people are easily brainwashed.

WWII,

Your comments regarding consumption are spot on and appear to be fairly universal. Btw, I really dug your restoration job! I definitely know what you mean about going back and re-doing some of your earlier efforts. In the process of restoring my boat I learned that laying fiberglass is very contingent on temperature, humidity etc.

Dinor, thankee.
The car was way more time consuming than I imagined. I didn't do a complete teardown of it, but if I had, it would've been twice the work. Luckily, it was in good enough condition to start with without killing myself. I had never done any bodywork before, so it was challenging. I had to do most of it in the street and a small driveway. No fun!
I'm now helping my housemate restore a 63' Corvair convertible. This is his first classic too, so mistakes were made, just as I did on mine. My biggest mistake was putting the thermostat in backwards, which caused the radiator hose to blast off a mile from the house. Luckily it was fine.
2 nights ago, my housemate drilled 3 holes right throught his gas tank. So I helped him drain 13 gallons of gas out of it at 11:00 at night and hopefully not pissing of the neighbors. It's good to have something that's totally opposite of an office job. I highly reccomend an old car or something of the like for anyone stuck behind a desk all day. very rewarding!

WWII,

What makes installing a thermostat incorrectly frustraing is that there are only two ways that it can go in so it's a fifty-fifty deal! We've all done it. I thought the Corvair was an "air-cooled" engine though like a Volkswagon?

Dinor,
Yup the Corvair is air-cooled. I put the therm in backwards on mine. It makes you feel like an idiot because the thermostat can only go in one way, and it's super-obvious. I don't tell mecahnics I did it either.
The Corvair engine is actually pretty cool. It is actually very lightweight and has been used as a substitute for a cheap airplane engine for hobbyists. There is a healthy following for Corvairs. Parts are still made for it by small tooling companies, except the parts they make are good quality vs the crap GM made. A few fully revamped corvairs I've seen are all new parts, complete with a new suspension system that compensates for the problems the original had. A fully restored Corvair gets great gas mileage, is easy to repair, and has few problems.
The biggest complaint I have is that this engine has 2 carbs connected via a single connecting rod. They must be perfectly synced and tuned together.I had never done that either. The eventual solution was sticking a rubber hose in your ear and listening for the hissing sound the carbs made, and adjusting them until they sounded the same. Silly, but it worked. All in all, it is a shame that Nader trashed this car. It could've meant a totally diffrent direction for american cars. The same same can be said for the Fiero, which just like the Corvair was penny-pinched to death by GM bigwigs.

WWII,

You know I never really thought of it that way! The Corvair definitely had a loyal following even in it's day. They were impractical in northern climates b/c it was difficult to keep windows defrosted and have adequate heat in the winter months. However they could have had a completely different application in warmer climates and were just fine during the summer months. I understand that the Fiero is a favorite for conversion by "electric car" enthusiasts.

I absolutely hate when they put the “curbs in!” We all understand the implications of programmed trading but this is a FREE MARKET damn it! No one is held captive here against their will. If you want to sell….. then sell.

yeah, it's all good fun until somebody loses an eye....

DS,

"yeah, it's all good fun until someone loses an eye"

Sean, if we are going to have a "superior" market, truly the top of the food chain (one not dominated by empty nester house wives) we need to play hard ball. If that means issuing eye patches, canes and German Shepards with really nice dispositions then that's what we need to do. Total transparency, total liquidity!

28 more foreclosures on Craigslist Austin... up to 428. Sweet!

George,

So sorry to hear of your loss. I must say though that you may have set your sights a little low. There was no mention of guest quarters, seperate entrance for the "domestic help" and no pool in sight! I want one of those places they used to film an episode of "Miami Vice" or at least Weekend at Bernie's 2. If I'm going to sell my home pre-crash, and weather this whole mess in a rental I want a pool damn it.

WWII,

How do you find that on C/L? Just plug in a market then search foreclosures? Can it really be that simple?

goober,

Now did I say I was actually going to swim in the thing? That's funny b/c I don't recall saying that. Just kidding. How many people actually use their pool anyway? My point is simply that by keeping "our powder dry" a little longer, all will be possible. I remember after the stock market bubble a lot of clients said this would actually be a great time to BUY! In truth many were already very over leveraged and had no liquid left to play with.

All of us can play this one of three ways:

1. Good. "Well at least we didn't buy at the peak in 2005"

That's great it leaves you with your dignity, but not much else.

2. Better. "We held out long enough that we just bought a modest place for bargain basement prices and paid it off cash (or have mortgage payment about equal to an SUV payment)

This is probably the most sensible approach.

3. Best. "We hung in there until the RE market over corrected to the downside and now have a pool (that we hardly ever use) guest quarters, a seperate entrance for "Lucinda" and have a mortgage payment BELOW an SUV payment.

Dangerous? Fanciful? Perhaps, but is it any less a fantasy than buying at the peak with an IO?

George,

OK, OK....... we'll just scrap the whole "pool fantasy" for now. But how about this? An indoor waterfall! Yeah, a 3 story indoor waterfall with the whole tropical jungle thing goin' on. Exotic birds (to entertain the ever present exotic swimsuit models that are invited to stay on after the "staging" and oblige of course) and ceiling fans (high end of course)?

Dinor,
Just go to CL austin, plug in "foreclosure" in the search.. and BINGO! also- try HUD. Lotsa those too.

WWII,

Cool! Thanks.

Yup,
I've actually met another person on an Austin Forum and he told me that there are likely thousands of foreclosures. Austin is totally diffrent than SF in that barely 15 minutes outside of the city, the prices drop like a rock. Kinda cool if you ask me. I'm all about buying a mini-ranch for a cool 150k, 30 minutes from Austin.
I get a feeling that severe indicators of a downmarket as evidenced in places like Austin will be contributing factors to downgrading property in SF. I think the mindset that "thank god I don't live anywhere except California" is at this point the only thing that's keeping california from totally crashing.

Amen to Foreclosures. My favorite word too... which means: Cheaper housing.

Scott C,

What an amazing turn-around! You've managed to go from "perma-bull" to saying foreclosure is your favorite word? Well this is at least a step in the right direction. When you come to the realization that realtors from coast to coast are having EXTREME difficulty making a 6% commission stick you will be truly on the road to recovery! When the "boom goes bust as it inevitably will" it will hurt everyone and realtors especially. Please read George's post regarding the "future" for big banks in RE and paultry commissions. Start liking it!

Scott C,

Oh btw, once you've actually lived through a true crash you won't need a hairdresser any more. You will (as I have already done, pull your hair out in clumps) making the services of a "hairdresser" completely unecessary. Please do not make any future references to the stock market bubble. You are not qualified to address this topic. You weren't there man! You weren't there. But you will find out shortly. Keep in touch.

Wahahaha! All I can say is that it is time for the empire to crumble!

I absolutely hate when they put the “curbs in!” We all understand the implications of programmed trading but this is a FREE MARKET damn it! No one is held captive here against their will.

The curbs were theoretically supposed to break "feedback loops" caused by programmed trading along with all the psychological stuff. In theory, it wasn't a bad idea since program trading can feed on itself and cause exponential growth of momentum in a frighteningly short period of time.

The only problem is that curbs don't work. I've read research that curbs actually compound program trading related problems. Because program trading isn't going to go away (actually only get worse as even amateur retail investors can use some limited program mechanisms now), but we don't want the market to fail due to "synthetic amplification", we're probably stuck with curbs and market shutdowns.

What someone should do is work out an intelligent program trading AI that knows how to spot market feedback and arbitrages that. That would make someone tons of HaHas while helping to solve the market-curb problem.

Scott wrote:

> The 6% commission rate is not going to go
> away. As a business, no real estate company
> can operate profitably at below that rate.
> Those that try, go broke and out of business quick.

If you sell an average home on my parents street you will make about $300K with a 6% commission, one home a month is $3.6mm a year so it will not be hard to keep the lights on in a one man office for half that….

Stanley Lo is a guy that sells a lot of property near my parents does very well only charging 3.68 (All the Chinese buyers go with him since his fee is not only cheaper, but it has a "lucky 8" in it)...

http://www.greenbanker.com/

tannenbaum,

The DQ article makes less than no sense. In all nine BA counties sales are down 20 to 30%+ yet median price has risen an avg. of what, 2.6 to 16.6%? Sure! I always enjoy the language they use and apparently get away with. "Down payment sizes are stable". Stable. Uh, O.K what does that really mean? "So honey, how are things at work?" "Oh....... stable". I'm sure every wino in downtown San Diego at one time had a "stable" job.

"The use of adjustable-rate mortgages over the last 4 months has decreased". No. The use of mortgages has decreased over the last 4 months, adjustable or otherwise. We could go on but.........

DinOR Says:

> The DQ article makes less than no sense.
> In all nine BA counties sales are down 20
> to 30%+ yet median price has risen an avg.

Remember most real estate "current sales" data is 4 to 6 months old.

The property that "sold" at the end of April is still in escrow, and may stay in escrow for a couple months then it takes the county a while to actually record the sale and release the data.