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sorry my last statement was cut off. Hey come on down to the blog party as i would love to do the world a favor and bounce a fucking aluminum louisville slugger off your fucking 2 ft thick skull.
PS FUCK YOU
JBR housing bear here, but reading through this thread it occurred to me to ask whether or not the run up in residential real estate might in part have to do with a relative decrease in availability of desireable jobs? Could the increased asset value reflect a bidding war amongst people who want to gain access to jobs that can keep up with globalization, inflation and taxes? But at the same time, these very jobs are consolidating into the urban areas, the very hotspots of residential real estate activity. Not enough of these jobs to go around, so demand far outstrips supply, with a concurrent increase in the prices of everything related to obtaining such jobs.
Another question: why is it so many here seem unconcerned about the costs of any bubble breaking getting thrown at the feet of taxpayers? It rates a mention here or there, but mark my words, when huge institutional investors responsible for pensions, large mutuals, etc. start showing signs of folding, the political pressure to bail them out with taxpayers will be enormous. We will see headlines after headlines blaring plaintive wails like "Retirement Futures Down the Drain"...unless "government" (read: taxpayers) "stabilizes" (read: bails out with taxpayers) the situation. By that time (10-15 years?), I hope to be able to move my company offshore because by then I should have a geographically diversified client base.
Joe,
The average home price in Mendham was $950k:
http://www.dailyrecord.com/business/forecast2005/index-2.htm
That place sounds pretty comparable to Danville.
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From Linda in LA-LA-Land:
"There is certainly a possibility that we have reached a new level of ownership premium our society is willing to pay. The ratio of housing costs to income may have changed forever. Not too long ago, people used to buy stocks for their dividends. Now they buy it because they think someone else will buy from them at a higher price. Things change.
From some reports I read a few days ago, home prices in UK and Australia haven’t exactly crashed. Who knows what will happen in US ? I am willing to take the risk of that happening. Because I think the probability is low. This is not an inflation in asset priceses alone. There is a credit bubble. I am betting on it to burst. If I am wrong so be it."
Most of us here debated --and dismissed-- the bulls's "new paradigm" arguments long ago as basically meritless and concluded that reckless lending/borrowing (thanks to the Fed & GSEs) and rampant, unsustainable speculation (thanks to good 'ol greed & fear) were primarily to blame for the housing bubble. However, when it comes to certain parts of the country --California being pre-eminent among them-- it seems pretty likely that, while prices must eventually correct, they are not likely to fall so far as to bring California and other so-called "prime" areas into line with high affordability levels common in other states.
Are there any truly secular “new†developments which might account for at least some of the rise in housing prices relative to other asset classes and might --if they prove to be permanent trends-- limit the extent of the eventual correction?
Some possible candidates:
1. Rise of NIMBYism, Urban Boundary Limits (UBLs), which are very popular in CA & OR, and pseudo-environmental anti-development laws. These are measurably constraining supply and artificially raising the cost of what new housing stock does get built, reagrdless of whether it's for rental or sale.
2. Shift in federal tax codes since 1996, heavily favoring RE investment/speculation over other assets. $250/500K capital gains exemption, mtg. interest deduction on 2nd homes, 1031 exchange, etc.
3. The tremendous rise of GSEs and MBSs/CMOs since mid-1990s in providing unprecedented levels of mortgage liquidity and risk underwriting (shifting loan default risk from lenders to FCBs and private investors).
Discuss, enjoy...
HARM
#housing