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I prefer all in-n-out offerings to all McD offerings (Yes, even over the precisely engineered McD fries. In-n-out fries taste more authenic because they're fresh.
However, I'm still going against that Newport Beach McMansion. No $5M estate should be placed that close to the street. It looks like a monstrous McMansion...kind of a funny concept, a McMansion mansion.
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Readers of the FT will be familiar with the (newly expanded) Lex Column. Today's featured an interesting little bit on US housebuilders, and its relation to the US housing market.
The column goes on to mention:
Toll is considered a bellwether indicator. Why? Because it markets upscale homes to a sophisticated clientele. Sentiment has grown so negative on Toll that their recent guidance further cutting earnings forecasts actually triggered a relief rally. The market capitalization of Toll is less than the value of all its land and inventory.
Or is it? The problem is that the only potential buyers for construction projects in-progress are other builders, who are similarly depressed for the same reasons. This kind of "vicious circle" is hard to break and usually causes an overshooting of reasonable valuation.
But before you jump in to buy undervalued REITs or homebuilder stocks, keep in mind that this may just be the beginning. The entire sector is trading at about 5.5 times ever shrinking earnings estimates. But (and this is a big but), direct costs are skyrocketing, general inflation is increasing, rates are rising, and industry consolidation is probably nowhere near done. Lex's conclusion: it will be increasingly difficult for these builders to defend returns as capital costs soar. Result, more downside probably left.
Why on earth do we even care? We're sure to hear from at least one Troll that "New Home Starts" don't matter, or that homebuilders aren't relevant, or that "sales of existing homes" is the only game in town. My answer: perhaps, this time, everything is different and we've entered a great new economic paradigm where leading indicators no longer lead. Or, the correction is well underway.
--Randy H
#housing