patrick.net

Children, settle down, ok! Sheesh. For some reason that shot makes Mr. X look bigger than he really is. In person, he's more like Randy H's description.

Here's a much better representation of our handsome Boomer-slayer:

I must say that in this photo you all look like good people. I would not have guessed your photo personalities based on your blog posts. However, in retrospect, there are connections.

Looks like an ALL WHITE PARTY — no ethnic diversity…

Nonsense. There was plenty of ethnic diversity at the blog party: Anglo, French, Spanish, German, Scandinavian, etc. --every shade of WHITE was represented!! What more do you want??

Good looking crowd!

It gives one cause to ponder. What will Labor Day parties look like for homedebtors? Gone are the days of "handcrafted micro-brews" and bring on the Hamm's? At present it's fairly obvious that most markets have issues. With the mainstream media clearly now "on board" how will this summer play out for John and Jill McHomedebtor now that the HELOC/ATM is completely shut down?

My guess is that unlike having to go through the pain of "resetting your PIN number" the House ATM has more serious technical difficulties. I'm already seeing the impact to the consumer here in Oregon. Normally every spring as our weather finally breaks it seems like one of those "resort towns" that shut down after Labor Day and don't come to life again until the kids get out of school. Right now, traffic is lower and slower than in the dead of winter! All anecdotal of course but I haven't had much in the way of disagreement on this point. Higher commuting costs coupled with a "tapped out HELOC" seem to be already having an effect.

Ya'll wanna see a picture of me? well, I have one but it isn't that great. It's on my site here: http://tinyurl.com/om9pu
There you go.

WW2,

Most definitely have noticed the "C/L Index" and is it ever volatile! Postings now seem to be dominated by those that best know how to manipulate the system and man do they ever! You look under RE and some guy has figured out a way that no matter where you click you wind up looking at something HE wants to show you. I've often seen the same listing under several categories. It's "For Sale", "For Rent" and also in "pre-foreclosure"!

Dinor,
What's more is that if I check out Craiglslist Nashville, Austin, or any number of other cities, half of the ads are from Miami, San Diego, or Sacremento. People are pulling out all the stops.
I will say that it is depressing to see that some of the prices in the immediate Nashville area are slowly but surely creeping up into the bubble zone level. I pary that the lunacy ends before it gets out of hand there and everywhere else for that matter.

WW2,

Yeah, I know and it annoys me no end. If I wanted an "investment opportunity" in freaking Miami I guess I would have searched Miami for crissakes! Many of the Las Vegas listings are actually FB's in San Diego desperately trying to unload their McMansion in a hurry. Then again, Oregonians (while bum beefing Californians) have advertised their "retirement dream homes" in the LA Times for years. I suppose that's fine as they were listed as "Out of Area Properties".

I was doing a little research yesterday and ran across an article that dicusses a phenomina that hasn't exsisted in this country since the 1950's, which is a reverse immigration pattern of African Americans out of the NE, West, and other higher priced regions. http://www.dailybruin.ucla.edu/news/articles.asp?ID=29318
The main culprit for this of course is a heavily affluent older white population pushing out the lower income residents. I find this very striking because it is a good indicator of what will happen to the middle class of most major metropolitan regions. Another report mentioned that of the 25 major metropolitan area, 18 of them are losing more population than moving in. Again, this is due mainly to housing and economic costs. The cost of living index is now roughly 4.5 times HIGHER in most of California than the next comparable area. Thus the writing on the wall is very clear: Unless you make at least a 6 figure salary, then your economic options are sparse at best unless housing, tax systems, and economic prosperity are taken under control.
The big question Californians and New Yorkers need to ask themselves is what are the implications and possible outcomes of a microsociety with no Middle class? I've read several books about NYC in the 1860's and 1870's, and the norm of the day was a huge pit of really poor people, and a horde of the elite class with a huge economic advantage over the lower classes.
If you think that living here is expensive now, what will it be like in say 5 or 6 years if 800k houses are a given and taxes are even higher? Will a major economic meltdown become the only way to return to normalcy? Do we need another " Great Equalizer" as we had in the crash of 29'?
Lastly, what will become of these new havens for the middle class? Will they take up the reins where California and New York left off, developing the new technology and jobs that the middle class have always been leaders in? Will their political and intellectual influence rise through the ranks while California Stagnates in moldy old money, much as what occurs in Europe? It is perplexing. Just thought I'd throw that out.

arg! that was the wrong url! I can't find the article either... so just take my word for it..

WW2,

In Portland I've heard it referred to as "bleaching". Formerly all Black (and perfectly viable neighborhoods) are slowly being pressured out and young whites are moving back in. Salem (our Capitol) is becoming the new "N.E Portland". With older homes that were often partitioned out becoming SFH once again and prices skyrocketing working families have been forced out east or south.

Dinor,
The same is true in Memphis. My Aunt has been there for over 30 years. She lives in a predominantly black neighborhood. Memphis has a property tax system that increases as property values go up; the opposite of CA's Prop 13. So when "immigrants" from out of state come in and think 450k is a STEAL for a large victorian, her house goes from being a 45k house to a 150k house. She's not rich by any means, and she worries that eventually, Memphis will also become gentrified and she will have to move due to the property taxes.
Something seems wrong about the fact that these so-called undesireable areas; areas that people chose to live in because it worked with their finances are now being overtaken by the same people that pretty much ruined the regions that avoided due to the expense in the first place.

@WW2,

I fixed your URL above.

Harm,
Thank you for correcting my blunder!

One thing I wanted to mention is an idea I had over the weekend that could potentially make someone with intuition very wealthy. The idea is to create entire towns that serve as an investor's paradise. Nobody would actually live there. The houses would all be pretty much the same with the exception of the paint colors. The houses themselves would be made out of cast cement or plastic interlocking blocks. Inside, the kitchens would have countertops with tops that can easily be removed via a few handy levers. All a new investor has to do is remove the old countertop and replace it with the latest and most popular style, whether it be granite, marble, tile, or copper. These can be exhanged at large home remodeling shops that swap your old countertop for a new one for a small fee. Painting would be a snap too. The "paint" would actually be tearaway strips applied to the outer and inner walls. All one has to do is peel off an old layer to reveal a new color underneath. There are 20 layers, so there's plenty of remodeling to do for years of investors. The bathrooms are filled with plumbing that's just there for looks and to impress. The bathtub sits on rolling casters. The connections are via garden hoses conveniently hooked up out of site. Remodeling consists of rolling out the old fixtures and rolling in new ones, gotten from the same nearby remodeling store. The kitchen appliances are the same way.
Out in the yard, there is a handsome array of plastic grasses and exotic weatherproof silk flowers. No mowing ever needed! And what about that picket fence? well, these picket fences comes in large rolls. All you have to do is buy a few rolls and stick them in your yard.
When that's all done, investors can turn around and sell it. Easy! The best part is that since there are no pesky renters or homeowners, all one has to to do is resell it over and over again! It's like collecting comic books, except better!
Anyone else want in on my ingenious scheme?~!

WW2,

Anyone that has ever owned an older Victorian would know that they are not a bargain at ANY price. The attention to detail and charm translates into constant maintenance. Many of the "restorations" I've seen started in earnest and disintegrated into a flow blown "just git her done" job. Everyone may want one, but they are not for everyone. My wife and I have a term for them:

AFBAB: Another Failed Bed And Breakfast

WW2,

Where do I put plunk down my earnest money? Come to think of it we won't even need a source of water as no one ever stays there long enough to need a shower! Funny!

Dinor,
Probabl wouldn't need electricity either. The homes could be wired with a 12 volt truck battery. All you need are the lights because the appliances would be fake too. Maybe they could build these out in the desert. Then they would be preserved, like old WW2 airplanes for all eternity.

WW2,

Right. If the walk way lights are solar powered anyway and the appliances are there primarily for "staging" purposes an 8D CAT battery should provide ample current to test the security system that protects the "distance owner's" imaginary belongings. However a glass door wine chiller will be required so we can break out the bubbly to celebrate the multitude of transactions that will ensue! Ah! Here's to tax free money!

Actually they already have something pretty much like this that fulfills all of boomers needs. They are the same basic format only situated on wheels so you can take your wealth with you on a "road show" referred to by many as a "motor home". I hear they are quite popular.

Actually,
I had another great idea to lower the development costs of these masterpiece homes. Instead of having to outfit them with expensive fake appliances, why not just have applied giant stickers with interior photos attached to the windows? The dramatic effect would be houses that look like they have beautiful interiors, when in fact they're just hollow shells. Saves the trouble of having batteries at all. A single "sample" home would be at the end , and this one would have all the fake appliances and all. Investors simply choose a model of their liking and the contractor applies the stickers.

No no no! It has to be something that people can actually drive to. Investors and boomers have nothing to do these days except drive around in their Bimmer SUVs and look at open houses. This planned development will give them reasons to go out on the weekends. Heck- I bet you could even have mechanical "open house" signs that can be raised out of a slot in the yard. Even better- maybe your idea for the virtual house would work this way: As mentioned before, the peel-away stickers, countertops, and applicances could be remotely controlled via an interactive web site custom made for each investor. So all an investor has to do is make a few Havana sidecars, click a few buttons, click the " open house" button and wallah! instant open houses! Sort of like a fun video game.
I wonder what the commercials are like? " ever wonder what happened to Don Knots on the Andy Grifith show? Well... he's dead, but if he were alive, he'd probably live in investoville- the best place to stash all your investment dollars!

Jackie Mason once quipped:

"Why spend a billion dollars on a "stealth" airplane nobody can see"? Couldn't we just tell the Russians we built one?

I know a guy back in Chicago that sells a (I'm not kidding here) staging franchise! He does it too! Manses don't sell well when empty. I don't know why. Maybe people think there is something wrong with it. If it's such a wonderful "manse" why isn't someone jumping all over it? If you don't want to buy a "franchise" and your lifestyle permits, you can become an occupant and pay about HALF of what rent would be. So basically you would be paying about 1/4 of what the mortgage payment would be. This, right in alignment with "family for hire" for your open house leads me to believe that reality and RE are taking seperate paths.

WW2,

It sounds just crazy enough to work --I want to buy shares in Investoville! Or is that Flippertown?... Specuvestor City?...

SP,

If they live in Dissaisfaction Junction which street are they on?

"Empty Feeling Drive"

"I wish I woulda Circle"

"Lamenting Lane"

Surfer-X, HARM, Linda,

The party was a lot of fun and I was glad to have met everyone, from the gracious Surfer-X, to the lovely Linda, to the deboinaire HARM.

I am sorry that we did not get more of a chance to chat, but the Lil' Schmoes took up most of our time, although a lot of people, particularly Mrs. X (who, I have to say, is HOT!), were kind enough to play with them. Incidentally, the Lil' Schmoes had a great time at the party; I wasn't sure how they would take to it, but they were happy as clams.

The party was most excellent, a great time was had by all and I hope that there will be more get-togethers in the future.

An interesting concept was posted at Ben's blog this morning and I was wondering what you guys think of it:

Comment by salinasron
2006-05-31 08:07:11

"...Smart buyer’s group would pool their funding and buy the first house. Second step, flip it to another in your group at a very, very low ball price (let all neighbors know) and then start purchasing the others at bargain basement prices that will generate a positive cash flow when rented."

Think about it --price collusion in reverse. The mirror opposite of collusion between Realt-whores, phantom bidders, shill appraisers, look-the-other-way lenders, etc. It might be considered unethical, but I doubt it's illegal, given that no "fraud" is involved, just willing parties cooperating to push down comps. The government has shown it has no intention of passing --much less enforcing-- any significant anti-collusion RE/mortgage regulations (NAR's "in the bag" comments, monopoly MLS & "liar loans", etc. are proof of that), so why not?

Looks like an ALL WHITE PARTY — no ethnic diversity ……

I'm 1/2 Mexican and retarded. If I am recalling correctly (difficult thru the alcoholic haze) there were 3 other persons of latio decent there also. Besides there was a full on mariachi party next door. Tenative SoCal Blog Party II on July 4th weekend. This one comes with surfing lesson.

Schmend, no worries, thanks for the link.

@Joe Schmoe,

Ditto --it was great meeting you, Clara & the kids. I'm sorry we didn't get more time to chat one-on-one, but hey, we only live a mile away.

@Surfer-X,

fyi: I've deleted most of the offending comments (from the point where it turned nasty). I think Schmend Rick was just joking, but just went a little too far.

Joe Schmoe, you and your well behaved Lil’ Schmoes did nothing for my "try to keep Surfer-X's pathetic rental baby free" plan. Next time can you make sure they are sufficiently cranky? Perhaps holding them out the car window on the ride up?;)

@HARM. dude you rock!

Funny,
tinyurl.com/nk6aj

Surfer-X,

LOL! If it is any consolation, they only cry between the hours of 2:00 and 5:00 a.m.

The Lil' Schmoes are actually 1/2 Hispanic as well, and Mrs. Schmoe is 1/2 Mexican and 1/2 Nicaraguan.

More importantly, even those of European descent celebrated the rich diversity of foreign cultures by drinking lots of tequila and eating Laurent's quiche.

HARM,

I had read that comment as well and must admit it got me thinking. Provided the entity structuring was sufficiently prepared like an LLC or even a Sub "S" it would be difficult for any regulating body to determine that there had been any wrongdoing. Say for instance we buy (w/full knowledge it's an overpriced sh#tbox) sell the property at a loss to a subsidiary and drive comps down as we go. The question quickly becomes one of "burn rate" where we would have to determine if we had deep enough pockets to weather our self induced downturn before creating the proper backdrop on a road toward profitability?

Think of it this way: You and I are founders of a company we took public. We later decided that we no longer want to be publicly traded and contemplate a "share buy-back" or "share re-purchase" to take the company private. Do we do this when the stock is at the 52 week high? Hell no! We do it at the 52 week low. But what if the stock shows stubborn price persistence? Well...... nothing a few strategic "leaks" couldn't cure! Happens every day! We want the company back (tired of all the SEC Compliance and whiny shareholders) so we set a disaster prone course, shareholders get wind we have a nightmare aquisition underway, bail, stock price drops and we (out of concern for the employees) agree to come out of retirement and take one for the team. Aquisition (or spin off rumor squelched) we resume our profitable ways!

@Surfer-X,
Right back at'cha!

@DinOR,
The question quickly becomes one of “burn rate” where we would have to determine if we had deep enough pockets to weather our self induced downturn before creating the proper backdrop on a road toward profitability?

Yes, you've raised two big potential roadblocks with this approach: (1) having enough people and $$ to eat the costs during the initial buy-in phase (at inflated current-market prices), and (2) making enough low-ball "flips" to have a significant statistical impact on local comps/prices.

On problem #1, obviously, the larger and better funded the pool, the better. Problem #2 can be solved by concentrating on a relatively small city or isolated neighborhood, where the comps can be set by relatively few sales. The deflating bubble would also work in our favor in that sales are already dropping like a rock just about everywhere, which magnifies the impact of each sale that goes through.

HARM,

Good points! Just remember we aren't as much concerned with "scuttling" comps as we are with making money. Comps will be driven down but this is a positive "side effect" not the primary objective. If it creates better entry points for working families so much the better. I know it works b/c I've seen one particular company do it several times over the last decade or so. They're known as "the junk mail kings" in San Antonio.

DinOR,

You and I are founders of a company we took public. We later decided that we no longer want to be publicly traded and contemplate a “share buy-back” or “share re-purchase” to take the company private. …… nothing a few strategic “leaks” couldn’t cure! Happens every day! ... (tired of all the SEC Compliance and whiny shareholders) so we set a disaster prone course,

I'm sure this has happened, and occasionally still happens. A few points of practicality--especially in today's environment--make it unlikely.

* The real moral hazard for managers is that they put the company on a course such that they can keep their jobs and/or exercise golden parachutes. They are seeking to maximize their own position.

* Taking a company private is seldom ever done by the company itself. It usually involves a lot of private equity, often a massive LBO, and lots of new commanders walking into the shop. As such, existing management almost never keep their jobs in such a maneuver (although they may get a nice payout).

* The IB/PE/LBO folks determine the buyback parameters, not the management. In fact, it is the Board that must approve the action.

* The Board is held to fiduciary responsibility to the shareholders and can (and often is) sued in class action if they fail to abide by the Business Judgement Doctrine.

* Anyone making strategic leaks of any type, whether true or not, will almost certainly get investigated under SEC 10b and 14e (and maybe others). The SEC isn't very nice about such violations at present.

* Unless your company is small enough to avoid raising the interest of Hedge Funds, your share price will be seriously arbitraged by Merger Arb funds and such. This makes the market efficient, and shines a spotlight on any funny-business. Hedge funds love to raise holy hell when they don't like what management is doing.