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HARM to Peter P and Randy H: I find your lack of faith disturbing.
invite response
2006 Jun 4, 7:50pm 16,986 views 238 comments
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Randy H
2006 Jun 6, 6:26am
Red Whine,
I’ll concede this round — and I’ll even let you pick the replacement. Pittsburgh, or Wichita?
I'm ambivalent about either of those cities. I can only speak authoritatively about the Ohio cities, and I would have even let you slide with Cleveland.
Let's pick Pittsburgh, and I'll say: "Your charge is a fair one".
Randy H
2006 Jun 6, 6:29am
DinOR,
Cincinnati is a pretty scary place, with some of the nastiest racial problems in the country. And I'm saying that as someone with fond memories of going to Riverfront Stadium with my grandfather once a week every summer to watch the Big Red Machine.
newsfreak,
So then we have 09/09/09 up to 12/12/12? Man, that is freaky! None of this was ever mentioned in the Exorcist or the Omen. Are you telling me I wasted my time? I'm certainly not prepared for this. What is it exactly that I should be doing?
Randy H,
Yeah, the guy was one of those pawn shop owners that paid for everything in cash and was used to carrying it. I'm sure his wife didn't know about the account. He was a pretty tough guy but after those riots he talked about moving some of his shops.
newsfreak,
Yes I suppose that's true. It would only follow reason that at the start of each century this strange occurence would take place. But is there any chance that it's different this time? Hmmm.
Newsfreak,
I was just trying to be "cute". My views on illegal immigration by now are well established (I'm definitely NOT in favor of importing unlimited wage-undercutting, infinitely exploitable, social services free-riding, illiterate peasant labor).
I prefer class segregation to racial segregation any time. Race is something you can't change, money is something that can be made with enough effort paid.
John Haverty and Jon,
I was gone for most of the evening so missed most of your "spirited" exchange, which I deleted beyond the point where the debate degenerated into childish name-calling.
Please refrain from engaging in personal attacks and/or responding to personal attacks from others. Violating this rule in the future may lead to having your posts quarantined in moderation or banned altogether. Consider yourselves warned.
If you both wish to continue your flame war, please consider a more appropriate venue for this sort of thing, such as Craigslist.
And now back to our regularly scheduled programming...
At what point do all of you who predicted a 25%+ downturn for 2006 throw in the towel? Is this it?
Home prices have held steady, and even gone up a bit this spring in Noe Valley and Rockridge, in Oakland.
This is a soft landing, just like I predicted. From where I am standing it is not even a landing at all, just a slow down, but I understand that some places like Sacramento are really experiencing home price deflation.
newbietobayarea I am not really willing to repost all of my analysis as to why you should be willing to spend a larger portion of your income on housing here than you would in other places, but you can google for it if you are interested. You can certainly afford a starter home in a nice neighborhood on that salary. A 3/2 is not a starter home.
The secret to happiness is lowered expectations 0:-)
@Kerry Beauechrt,
Ahhh... another perma-bull/troll. Welcome to the blog. Your "points" are so original.
--More straw-man arguments: (we are all hoping that "Armeggen [sic] is coming"; we all "WANT some sort of economic catastrophe", etc.)
--More Gratuitous, baseless personal insults ("Creepy people. Sleazebags to be sure.")
--More complete falsehoods and made-up "facts" pulled out of your ass: ("Well, those who advised people to rent because rents were so low can’t use that argument anymore. Rents are increasing at rates larger than the increase in hosuing [sic] prices ever did. They’re topping 13% so far this year and there’s no end in sight... Only during very short periods over the last century did it make economic sense to rent if there was a choice.)
*Yawn*. Whatever dude...
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Seriously, guys, just when public psychology and the market is finally starting to turn to such an extent that --even the brain-dead, NAR-bought MSM has to acknowledge it-- NOW you guys have decided to puss out and capitulate??
Yes, the recent uptick in asking rents since March is significant (and as Surfer-X continues to point out, that's ASKING rents, not ACCEPTED rents, boys). Even so, didn't Mr. H himself predict this very phenomenon several threads ago, when he (accurately) applied the "escalation of commitment" theory to increasingly desperate FBs? Aren't the many testimonials by renters in the previous thread (while not statisticially significant) evidence enough that landlords have not repealed the law of Supply and Demand and can dictate rents at will? Not only that, but we've only just begun to see the barest start of apartment-to-condo conversions that are slowly reverting back to apartments. This alone will help flood the rental market with new inventory, right as Joe Homedebtor begins to give up on the concept of house = sure-fire investment.
As John Haverty FRIFY, To BA Or Not To BA and countless others have pointed out, there is just not going to be much in the way of real rent inflation UNLESS WAGES ALSO GO UP. This is for a very good reason: you cannot pay your rent with an NAAVLP. And what's more, rent-to-income ratios for most major metro areas of California are already hugely above the median/mean for practically every other state. It's already not unusual for CA working class households (or what's left of the middle class) to pay over 50% of take-home pay on rent. Exactly how much more can people possibly devote to rent --are they going to pay 90%? How about 100%? If this is true, I think I'm going to invest in the companies that make Ramen Noodles and peanut butter, becuase that's all people are going to be able to afford to eat after paying the rent. Or better yet, I'm going to heavily invest in housing OUTSIDE California --because that's where people will be headed in droves if this really comes to pass.
Peter P, tsk, tsk, tsk... Aren't you the guy who Face Reality used to call "Darth Bubblehead"? For shame.
Look, I'll be the first to admit that in my early phases of Bubble investigation, I was far from certain, and that I've experienced occasional bouts of self doubt. We all do, and it's really quite natural for sane people (only megalomaniacs, zealots and idiots lack the capacity for self doubt). Even so, I would recommend taking a moment to set aside all your complicated NPV/cash-flow discount models for a minute and reconsider the current situation in terms of old-fashioned COMMON SENSE. There is such a thing as being "too smart by half" and missing the forest for the trees, my overeducated gentlemen!
Now, suppose the perma-bulls' ultimate wet-dream "soft landing" scenario actually happens: price/rent correction ENTIRELY through wage & non-housing inflation. So what?? We all just got a 100-200% pay raise, boys --woo-hoo! And now we can all afford to buy a decent home for our families without taking out an insanely toxic loan. Is this an outcome I'm supposed to be afraid of? Hardly.
Personally, I don't care whether prices correct entirely through wage inflation (while nominal RE prices stay flat) or through big, nominal price drops --or some combination of the two. Either way, I win. I get the opportunity to purchase a depreciated asset tomorrow at a much lower real cost.
Have a little faith, gentlemen. The housing market moves excruciatingly, glacially slowly --but move it will.
#housing