patrick.net

DinOR,

That is a very interesting observation.

An exception to that rule of thumb is the the rappers. Those guys really are 100% self-made. We represent several of them. I always used to think that they would be even more unbalanced versions of rockers or professional athletes, always drunk or high, etc. Not true.

All of the rappers I have met have been shared the same trait: they are very smart. Those guys may act like crude thugs in videos, but they are all extremely intelligent. With them, it is all business, all the time. They are constantly marketing themselves and looking to build their careers. I have never dealth with a rapper's agent or manager; they might attend a meeting, but the star is there too and personally makes all the decisions. And a rapper's agent or manager generally has good advice and functions in a support role; he doesn't run the show.

I think it is becuase almost all rappers are self-made. They start out as poor teenaged boys living in the ghetto. They don't know anyone at Warner Brothers, industry, and they don't have an uncle who is going to give them a record deal, put them on TV, and send them on tour. The rappers have to build their careers from the ground up. They have to record their own mix tapes and fill the clubs themselves. Only then will they get a record deal with one of the major labels. It is very rare for a rapper to be packaged and marketed, they generally achieve success on their own.

About half of your country acts come up this way too. That is why they can endure for 20 years or more, becuase they have a real fan base with real fans. The other half are the product of marketing.

Different Sean Says:

> Kiyosaki knows everything about property.
> after all, he’s the self-proclaimed ‘property guy’.
> the property guy. he once bought something in
> Phoenix, which is now tanking…

As much as it’s fun to rip on Kiyosaki most of what he says is right on target just a little basic and written in fifth grade English down for a mass market.

> John T. Reed, a California native (yay), has a page on Tom Vu,
> and another page on Kiyosaki…
> www.johntreed.com/Reedgururating.html

John Reed is a super smart guy (I have every one of his self published books) and most of the pot shots he takes at Kiyosaki are about his financial history and military service not what he actually says.

I’ve often thought about writing a book called “Rich Dad, Richer Dad”. I’ve learned a lot from my Dad and John Reed who are both very rich, but I’ve learned even more from a good friend’s Dad (a HBS guy) who is even richer…

She is popular since she reminds people of the hottest girl in the trailer park (aka the hot white trash look)…

So we are now talking about dream human architecture? :)

OT, but I am rarely on topic anyways.

For RE market in BA, May might have turned out to be slightly better than April, at least for the areas I track. If this is a general trend, I expect CAR to tout these MOM gains. YOY picture is still clearly on the downtrend.

Nothing surprising here. The downward path is rarely a straight line.

Joe Schmoe,

"have a real fan base with real fans"

Brilliant! What a concept! True, I don't care for rap music but if these guys are self made hey, whatever right! So much of the "talent" we see in videos, movies etc. are strictly the product of marketing. I'm sure I'm not the only guy that got tired of hearing the recording/movie industry whine for years about how illegal downloading killing their bottom line! Try putting out something actually worth paying for! Which should give all of us cause to question how industries with declining sales, declining revenues and declining stock prices can continue to dole out free money to "manufactured" stars with no real fan base and no real fans!

For RE market in BA, May might have turned out to be slightly better than April, at least for the areas I track.

Which areas?

Those I track range from tepid (e.g. North San Jose) to red hot (e.g. Mountain View).

George,

I just couldn't read all of it. Sorry. Truly a dark day for Harvard.

Re: Harvard's "The State of the Nation's Housing" report...

(*Ahem*) Let's have a look at who's on Harvard's Joint Center for Housing Studies Policy Advisory Board (their list of financial backers/sponsors):

http://www.jchs.harvard.edu/people/pabmemberlist.html
"Members of the Policy Advisory Board are valued not only for their financial support, but also for their leadership and commitment to strengthening future housing research and for their participation in guiding and providing feedback on the Center's ongoing research.

Policy Advisory Board- Member Companies
--------------------------------------------------
Andersen Windows
Armstrong Holdings, Inc.
Beazer Homes USA
Black & Decker
Boral Industries
The Bozzuto Group
Bradco Supply Corporation
Builders FirstSource
Building Materials Holding Corporation
Canfor Corporation
Cendant Corporation
Centex Corporation
CertainTeed Corporation
Champion Enterprises
Countrywide Financial Corporation
Crosswinds Communities
Fannie Mae
Fannie Mae Foundation
Federal Home Loan Bank of Boston
Fortune Brands - Home and Hardware
Freddie Mac
GAF Materials Corporation
Georgia-Pacific Corporation
Hanley Wood, LLC
Hearthstone
Home Depot
HomeStore, Inc
Hovnanian Enterprises
Huttig Building Products
James Hardie Industries NV
Jeld-Wen
Johns Manville Corporation
KB Home
Kimball Hill Homes
Kohler Company
Lafarge North America
Lanoga Corporation
Lennar Corporation
Louisiana-Pacific Corporation
Marvin Windows and Doors
Masco Corporation
Masonite International Corporation
McGraw-Hill Construction
MI Windows and Doors, Inc.
National Gypsum Company
Oldcastle Building Products, Inc.
Owens Corning
Pacific Coast Building Products
Pella Corporation
Pulte Homes
Reed Business Information
Rinker Materials
The Ryland Group
S&B Industrial Materials S.A.
The Sherwin-Williams Company
Stock Building Supply
The Strober Organization
Temple-Inland
UBS Investment Bank
Weyerhaeuser
Whirlpool Corporation

"No conflict of interest to see here, people. Move along now..."

As Deepthroat said, "follow the money."

Truly a dark day for Harvard.

The darkest day for Harvard was the day Bill Gates left.

HARM,

That is truly pathetic. A veritable who's who in building/real estate. Just as with the "down payment assistance program" these guys have figured out a way to have their cake and eat too! I'm sure if you checked their books these contributors have listed their "donations" as tax deductible as well. Great........

George Says:

“Nothing like being bought and paid for!”

All the big schools are letting people spoon feed them information and publish studies with their names if they get paid enough. Cal recently put out a joke study that was bought and paid for by the big unions...

I want to buy and pay for Kiyosaki to lecture on something dumb, like
collecting Beanie Babies...Just to see him whoring himself out for a buck.

Yeah, that's it. Instead of a Pampered Chef party, you could film a Chef's in Pampers party starring Kiyosaki as the late-night info-mercial con man pimping the flavor of the week, be it housing, Beanie Babies, or...god forbid, Chefs in Pampers parties...Yikes!

FAB,

All I can say is, Wow! It also skirts a lot of disclosure issues as George pointed out a little earlier.

I noticed over on C/L for Las Vegas that REMAX is offering "No Payments for a Year" along with a 50" Sony TV AND $3,500 gift card to the store of your choosing! Need help w/those closing costs? No problem! The ads are just blaring out BUY ME to the point that as a......... potential buyer (someday) it's just confusing.

I don't believe for a minute that anyone here (and few elsewhere) are going to be swayed into a lifetime of indentured servitude by a 50" TV. This may actually even queer with Joe Howmuchamonth.

Had I wanted I could have discreetly written all of this down and taken over his identity.

Why would you want to take over the identity of a McDebtor?

CNN's top Business section article:
http://money.cnn.com/2006/06/13/real_estate/Harvard_study_housing_slow_growth/index.htm?cnn=yes

My comments to some of their nonsense follows:

"Graying boomers. As boomers have aged and prospered, they have begun to buy vacation or second homes in increasing numbers. This trend will widen as they near retirement."

I thought boomers were totally ill-prepared for retirement ... now they're buying more homes? So which is it?

"Fewer adult children live with their parents; they establish their own homes."

Absolutely, categorically false.

"Minority gains. Ownership among formerly under-represented minorities has increased. Black and Latin home ownership has always trailed that of whites but the past 10 years has seen minorities making great progress."

Harvard always has to do a little race-baiting, further reducing their credibility. Furthermore, luring minorities into death-or-glory loans at the height of a housing bubble isn't what I'd call "progress".

"The Harvard researchers downplay the risk in mortgages with adjustable rates and easy downpayment requirements."

To that I ask: Who funded this study?

"As Lawrence Yun, managing director of quantitative research for the National Association of Realtors, points out, in general, places with expensive housing are often the hardest places to build."

And no study would be complete without quoting an "expert" who works for the NAR.

Red Whine,

Uh the reason boomers are "ill prepared" for retirement is b/c they ran out and bought so many damn houses!

If people generally take the path of least resistance in life, it goes double for their finances! (Typically). Why would boomer invest more into the stock market (where he just took a sound ass whoopin') when he can buy second homes that only ever go up in value?

Besides, the points that you highlight sound to me more like reasons as to how we wound up in a bubble to begin with (not salvation from it's demise).

Peter P,

Why would you want to take over the identity of a McDebtor?

Normally, taking someone's ID and buying a hummer might raise a few red flags. But with a McDebtor, it's almost expected.

Jon Says:

> My main gripe is his posturing. He (Kiyosaki) has this attitude of
> “Your problem is you just don’t think like a rich guy”.

Most people on this list probably don’t talk to poor people about money issues on a regular basis. I’ve been doing it for over 30 years when people don’t pay their rent on time. I can say that the number one problem in America is that people are stupid and don’t think like rich guys or real rich guys…

We can all beat up on Kiyosaki since his advice is not perfect, but it will help to move people in the right direction.

My Grandfather (a poor guy) told my Dad to graduate from High School and get a good safe stable Union job.

My Dad (a rich guy) told me to graduate from college and buy apartments and manage them myself.

My good friends Dad (a real rich guy) told me to go to a top school and get a bachelors degree and then explained that if I was going to go to grad school I should bust my ass and score high on the GMATs to get in to a top 5 school. He then told me that I need to decide if I am better at either managing people or deploying capital and to focus on one area (very few people are good at/or have the time to do both)…

The bottom line thing I was left with after reading Kiyosaki’s first book was that you need to save some of your income so you can buy income producing assets (cash in the bank is a good start at building a portfolio of income producing assets) that will give you more income. If we could get poor people to understand this simple fact we would have a lot less poor people…

How does one guarantee a house for 1 year after the sale? Can the buyer give the house back and walk away?

I do not trust any personal guarantee.

The warranty works on older or newer homes. and probably, they will not warranty a home for things that are problems disclosed or revealed in the home inspection.

And there is no house price warranty. If the bubble does not work anymore you are on your own.

This started the day after Astrid and I had a heated disagreement.
May 29.
I wonder if she signed me up for it.

Huh? Astrid? Heated disagreement?

Do not disagree with astrid.

Ok, ceramic knives are good. I will buy one.

The funniest thing about the Harvard state of the housing market report is that it hinges its arguement that things are peachy-keen on the fact that the overall economy is doing so well, and as a result, there is no impetus for housing to tank. This comes just as the stock market is about to erase its gains for the entire year, and who knows how much more.

I remember starting out cold calling one of the toughest things was to get the prospect to give you out their SS # over the phone. You really had to be good at it and work hard as well. Of course this involved the prospect writing out a check for an investment. I guess when you're "giving away money" to a McDebtor it's a whole different deal.

Not long ago I was vacuuming out my car at the car wash and when I went to throw something into the trash can I noticed a whole bunch of documents from our local hospital. They thanked me and sent someone down right away. My buddy told me I should have asked how much they were worth to them but I just didn't feel right about that. Besides there probably was some of my stuff in there too!

I will not jump into conclusion just yet.

However, experience suggests that arguing with a Leo is not a wise thing.

skibum,

Right on! I've begun to wonder if the didn't insert some sort of poison pill so they might retain some of their academic integrity when this thing blows up in their face. All analysts have some caveat in their research reports that absolve them of any "wrong doing" and they just move on to their next report.

I will add you to Mr. SQT and Peter P, as people most likely to guard my nest egg.

Me? I suggest not.

I feel happy, oh so happy.

SAN DIEGO – San Diego County's home prices took their biggest tumble for any spring on record last month, DataQuick Information Systems reported Tuesday.
The median price of all homes sold in May was $490,000, down $15,000 from April, although it was still slightly higher than a year ago.

Snapshot: Home/condo sales May '05– May '06

Sales slowed for the 23rd straight month on a year-over-year basis, reaching 4,217 transactions in new and existing homes and condos.

Local real estate agents reported about seven months' worth of unsold inventory, but argued that the pace of activity reflects a normal market rather than a crash.

tinyurl.com/h86ek

Leslie Appleton-Young, chief economist for the California Association of Realtors, said she no longer uses the term “soft landing” to describe the state of the housing market, but has yet to find a way to characterize current conditions.

Leslie Appleton-Young, chief economist for the California Association of Realtors, said she no longer uses the term “soft landing” to describe the state of the housing market, but has yet to find a way to characterize current conditions.

I wonder what the new term will be.

How about...

cushioned landing, controlled crash, bouncing touchdown

John Haverty Says:

> FormerAptBroker HBS guys aren’t good because
> they came from HBS. I’ve worked with 5 guys from
> HBS out here, and only one has made any success.
> Point is, never put people on a pedestal for their
> credentials alone.

I never put anyone on a pedestal. Super Rich Dad (the HSB grad) explained to me that when I got to grad school I would meet not only other hard working smart kids, but many the not so smart children of his well connected friends from the Bohemian Club and the not so smart children of other super rich well connected people. Everyone at a top 5 business school is there for a reason and there is a reason to get to know them. John Arrillaga’s (good looking single) daughter Laura has four degrees from Stanford including a MBA and is so smart that she probably would have done well at Sanford even if she came from a poor family. If Laura ever get’s married and has kids they will be guaranteed to get in to Stanford now that her Dad is getting close to a quarter Billion in total donations to the school. Even if her kids are dumb as a box of rocks there are many good reasons to get to know them if they come from a family that has donated hundreds of millions to the school…

RE: school credentials and their relative merit, it's clear to me that elite schools all operate by the same principle, which some may call a scam. These schools have built enough of a "brand name" that they become sought-after commodities. They can then pick and choose the people who will be associated with them (students and eventually alumni). However, these people are for the most part people who would have done just fine with or without a degree from X school (as FAB points out). But in the end, the schools benefit from the association with these successful people as much, if not more than, the other way around, from donations, further positive associations ("rich and successful guy Y or Z went to X school, that's why they're rich"). The real benefit to students at these schools is that the brand name opens doors, both through making friends and contacts at school and using the name subsequently.

John Haverty Says:

> Also the masses should be wary of what Rich people
> did to get rich. Living life exactly as Bill Gates lived it
> wont net one much these days. Becoming rich is a
> touch of luck, lots of hard work and being at the right
> place and time for your aptitudes. Also, knowing rich
> powerful / well connected people helps considerably.

Bill Gates comes from a classic “very rich dad” family

1. Happy marriage of two smart kind well educated people
2. Education at the best schools was very important to the family
3. Philanthropy was very important to the family

It all came together when Bill’s Mom Mary overheard a fellow United Way board member who worked for IBM comment that they needed a PC operating system. She suggested that her son and friends from Harvard may have something that will work for them (the good schools paid off since she suggested that Billy and his friends from South Seattle JC had an operating system they probably would have never had the meeting with the IBM execs.)…

Becoming rich is a touch of luck, lots of hard work and being at the right place and time for your aptitudes. Also, knowing rich / powerful / well connected people helps considerably.

By far the greatest determining factor for financial success in life:
Choose your parents wisely.

If you rigorously follow this advice, everything else will fall into place.

Choose your parents wisely.

Do more good things this life and you will be born at a better time in a better place.

Another fatal thing Kiyosaki once said is that his net worth is somewhere in the range of 50M to 100M “depending on the day,” I don’t know about you but a portfolio when from 100M to 50M in one day there is something drastically wrong with it.

it turns out it's more likely to be $2-3 million, mostly from the recent sale of his fairly useless and dangerous books and from selling the 'cult of personality'. half his wealth also comes from buying in phoenix before the boom, which is presently evaporating again. he's been bankrupt, and had a low income for many years before finally coming up with a book with a title that would sell -- just like writing a book called 'how to satisfy your partner and keep them coming back for more' and filling it up with a load of pedestrian old rubbish and selling a title.

John Reed is a super smart guy (I have every one of his self published books) and most of the pot shots he takes at Kiyosaki are about his financial history and military service not what he actually says.

well, no, he takes a lot of potshots at what he says also, in great analytical detail. he has also researched kiyosaki's claimed past and more or less proven him to be a pathological liar and exaggerator, in order to puff up his books, in the greatest faux 'success' tradition. (much as james frey's work is fiction masquerading as non-fiction) and since kiyosaki's supposed lessons in life are completely fictional, there's a reasonably good chance they won't actually work if you attempt to apply them to anything.

The bottom line thing I was left with after reading Kiyosaki’s first book was that you need to save some of your income so you can buy income producing assets (cash in the bank is a good start at building a portfolio of income producing assets) that will give you more income. If we could get poor people to understand this simple fact we would have a lot less poor people…

that's right, the poor people are at fault, not the system. there is enough wealth in the world that everyone can all be millionaires, right down to the last peasant in china and villager in ethiopia. the rich don't throw their weight or power or intelligence around to keep other people down. and, of course, the whole world will all end up driving hummers without polluting or exhausting the world's resources and leaving it a hollow burned-out shell.

and, of course, stupid people who just do ordinary jobs like working in a bank or collecting garbage or doing all the necessary jobs in society that require hard work deserve to be stuck down there forever becuase of their stupidity in performing a socially useful function, when they could have top corporate defence lawyers instead.

-- could have
+ could have been