patrick.net

Michael Anderson,

Beavers WIN!

I can't believe it myself! Underdogs all the way and facing elimination every game the guys did a great job! Some will go on to the "bigs" but for most it will be a team photograph on their office wall that NEVER comes down! On your death bed you will still have been part of the 2006 Championship Team! I hope they all go on to do great things.

Randy H Says:
DS,
Don’t confuse the total population with the supply of available skilled labor.

of course not, i wouldn't dare. out of the 2.3 billion people in those countries (not counting indonesia at over 200 million and other east asian cheap labour candidate countries totalling hundreds of millions), perhaps only half of the population would be suitable, when you consider that a lot of routine clerical and manufacturing jobs don't require much intelligence or training -- they're the jobs that have left the west and leave a lot of people unemployed that hitherto would have had factory jobs. i'd say you're just looking at between one and one and a half billion relatively poor people... not including africa...

here's a comment by Stiglitz at the last Forbes conference (blegh) about a rough ride:

http://tinyurl.com/bpqws

In India, for example, much of the population are not candidates for the labor pool.

well, if it's just call centre staff, you're looking at university graduates as often as not. and they're none too pleased by the experience after a short while... i got a call from a call centre in the philippines the other day, which was very entertaining. and a really funny one from india telling me a mobile phone was coming to me in the mail.

an australian firm is setting things up so people can work for a call centre from home, and hope that the aussie accent is more palatable overseas, so it is still a comparative advantage even in a relatively high labour cost country -- and the proprietor points out that many of his staff working from home have all sorts of disabilities...

Aussie bid to reverse call centre jobs drain
May 28, 2006

THE Aussie accent is being marketed to British, American and New Zealand companies whose customers don't warm to Indian call centre operators.

Local entrepreneur Daniel Turner is exploiting a backlash against Asian operators after companies began outsourcing operations to India and the Philippines.

"There's a perception, right or wrong, that the quality of [their] service isn't as good as it could be," Mr Turner, 30, said.

"We are looking at reversing the trend of jobs going overseas."

http://tinyurl.com/jqld2

well, australia is now out of the FIFA World Cup after losing a very close match against Italy 1-0 from a penalty goal shot in the 94th minute in injury time. the spanish referee's decision was a highly controversial one.

the previous australian match against croatia (2-2) which kept australia in the competition was also marked by at least 3 controversial referee failures acting against australia (including an obvious handball and a 2 metre dragging tackle by croatia of australia's key goal scorer), and there are accusations of referees steering the outcome of the Cup and biasing decisions towards europe.

>>Michael Anderson,
>>Beavers WIN!

Yeah, I've heard a lot about it. They are a scrappy team.

But I've only been in Oregon 15 years, and I still follow the Ohio teams of my youth. Browns, Indians, Cavs, Ohio State, various high school football teams. I find it hard to get excited by these left coast teams. :-)

There’s also the community of nations bit. You cannot be building a coal plant a week and expect another free pass like Kyoto. You cannot sit with N Korea imploding on your border and take a lead role to rescue them while simultaneously planning on unrescuing Tiawan. A seat at the big table comes with an obligation to behave.

errrrhhhhhh

Michael Anderson,

I was really just as excited for my kids b/c so many of their friends go there and even knew players on the team so it has a hometown appeal for us. For me it's more about supporting the kids b/c I SURE didn't have any money on it. If you get a chance please read Danielle DiMartino's article linked here (I believe the second one down). Dark stuff. Totally plausible, very likely. "Children and dogs living together" type stuff. Enjoy!

Randy H -

you were only talking about Chinese strategic discipline on the currency peg????

That's not what you said, but even if you did, how can a twenty-thirty year peg = a good history of strategic discipline over long periods of time?

Actually, you were using a faulty logical argument:

ie-

China has a good history of strategic discipline over long periods of time (in what is unclear)

Therefore

The currency peg will, in your opinion, unwind over a long period of time rather than imploding.

Randy, you make some sense some of the time, but when you overgeneralize, do yourself a favour and admit it, denial doesn't confirm your point of view....

There is no logical connection between the first statement and your conclusion.

I might as well say China has a long history of corrupt financial genius, without citation or support, in arguing in favour of a slow unwinding of the currency peg....

Sir Rick,

You ain't kidding -- late 30s is as young as it's safe to go. I don't know WHAT these younger ladies were taught or not taught but dating them is like having an 11 year old child. They're little princesses who can't cook or clean, they're financially illiterate (and hence can't pull their weight with household bills), not conversant in any topic except maybe what Prada handbag they want at the mall, have no taste in food/wine/art/music, and then on top of that they're bossy, smug, entitled, and play "senior management" in the relationship. You can't take them anywhere because after a lifetime of coddling, they're totally unrefined and what comes out of their mouth is too often childish and embarassing. Useless! The MILFs are where it's at for sure.

I was at a meeting last week where we were making arrangements for a new executive to come on-board, and all the respective departments where there. The Facilities Manager instructs his twentysomething assistant to start prepping the new exec's office for his arrival and she says "Vacuum? Oh no -- I don't vacuum."

China has a good history of strategic discipline over long periods of time (in what is unclear)

The currency peg will, in your opinion, unwind over a long period of time rather than imploding.

The currency peg will unwind over long period of time. My instinct.

NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE

Peter P

I don't disagree with the conclusion you and Randy have on the currency peg...

I was just pointing out the irrelevance of the particular attached argument supporting that conclusion.

Poor San Diego PHD:

People get doctorate degrees because they love what they do, not because they want more money. Many of the 10 richest people in the world do not even have a degree.

People get doctorate degrees because they love what they do, not because they want more money.

People also get PhD's because they don't want to go into a cube farm with weekly blame sessions, oh and the parties + chicks help also.

I just sent $10 to patrick so he can continue to update the links. Any of you other freeloaders doing likewise?

Come on cheapskates.

tsusiat,

Thanks for the logic 101 refresher. There's no reason to go ballistic on me; I was just talking about my opinion, which I clearly demarcated as such, regarding whether China will be able to maintain their currency peg long enough to engineer a soft landing.

If you have issues with neoclassical macroeconomic theory then so be it; many do. Picking away at the specific semantic structure with ad hominem attacks of your own isn't very productive.

Randy, you make some sense some of the time, but when you overgeneralize, do yourself a favour and admit it, denial doesn’t confirm your point of view…

Please provide an example of someone on this board, myself included, who isn't guilty of that charge, please. If you cannot, then lay off the redundant non sequiturs. This isn't an academic peer reviewed journal. It is a blog.

I was just pointing out the irrelevance of the particular attached argument supporting that conclusion.

Comparatively, China did show some strategic discipline. Even the Cultural Revolution did not tear it apart. That means something.

Perhaps because the Chinese anticipates and accomodates changes, due to the influence of I Ching, they are able to remain still in a changing environment?

Randy,

for a guy who likes to haul out the facts post after post, it's kind of funny you now want to be cut some slack, by saying you were just giving your opinion.

We know it was your opinion Randy, I wasn't saying anything about your "opinion" on the currency peg, I was saying your tacked on argument was completely wrong and disconnected from supporting that opinion.

Dude, all you had to say was, yeah, I overgeneralized.

I pointed out a lazy ill-thought out overgeneralization, I suppose that made you unhappy, but I would hardly call it "going ballistic" by the standards of this board.

Let's see, I wrote:

"when you overgeneralize, do yourself a favour and admit it, denial doesn’t confirm your point of view…"

and you replied

"Please provide an example of someone on this board, myself included, who isn’t guilty of that charge, please. If you cannot, then lay off the redundant non sequiturs."

Dude, why do I need to do that? You didn't answer the question, you asked a question that is irrelevant to the original point!

You still haven't stepped up and admitted you were overdoing it.

What's the matter dude, that's so much simpler, don't you think?

Perhaps because the Chinese anticipates and accomodates changes, due to the influence of I Ching, they are able to remain still in a changing environment?

Thanks Peter. I wasn't aware that I needed to republish the macro analysis from my masters thesis on the economies of China/US/Vietnam/Mauritius every time I suggest (as opinion) that China is relatively more strategic in many historical matters.

Wow, you wrote a masters thesis?

I guess that means your opinions, are, like, more well thought out than us non-intellectuals..

Randal H, never underestimate the importance of Mauritius. It's all Mauritius nowadays.

tannenbaum,

That's what I'm talkin' about!

Did you see the data in the left hand column? Unreal! Mind you all of these figures of 100/150/195% "appreciation" is just from the first quarter of 2000! It shoots holes in the theory (firstly) that there is No National Market! Price increases were pretty uniform (meaning equally ridiculous) across the board. Secondly that the housing bubble is "strictly" a post stock market crash/9/11 driven event! True, those (along with free money) were major catalysts but the NASDAQ was STILL RISING through the first quarter of 2000! 9/11 was still another 1 3/4 years in the making.

I'm not saying this is the "smoking gun" but it tends to lend credibility to the notion that things were getting off kilter before other external influences took place! My advice to the gal in this article? Find another boyfriend.

insert image of kettle boiling...

re-lurk

More gems from tannenbaum's USAToday article:

In San Diego, biotech companies don't bother to recruit employees from outside California, because the cost of buying a home is simply too shocking, says Elizabeth Morris, CEO of the San Diego Housing Commission. Her agency helps 12,500 low-income families pay their rent each month, and there's a waiting list of 30,000.

...Julaine Anton, an 80-year-old widow, was forced out of her downtown apartment because the owner converted it to a condo. Now, she's facing that same threat in her new apartment. She needs her savings to live on, not to buy real estate. "My medical insurance, after Medicare, has gone up so much since I retired," Anton says. The $1,250 monthly rent for her two-bedroom apartment takes up all but $150 of her Social Security check.

Shit, Bob, I thought Prop. 13, UGBs and rent control were these government MAGIC BULLETS destined to "save" poor f--king grandmas from being evicted ever again! California is the PROMISED LAND of Smart Growth, High-Density, Green-Belt, urban social engineering, right? What's the deal here --didn't San Diego get the memo ???

"weekly blame sessions"

Well I don't think I've ever worked the cube farm but I am well familiar with the blame session thing. When working an IPO it becomes a DAILY blame session! Not fun.

tsusiat,

Wow, you wrote a masters thesis?

I guess that means your opinions, are, like, more well thought out than us non-intellectuals..

lol. It means nothing of the sort. My thesis, like most, was just a giant pile of busy work. All I meant by invoking it was that there is an assload of data, all cited and referenced. The conclusions are worth what you pay for them, but the data is all nicely organized for someone with no life and lots of spare time.

HARM,

Isn't it just possible that GSE's "could" have had a positive impact had it not been for the "kid gloves" preferential tax treatment RE gets? I mean I'm asking that in an open ended fashion. Fannie and Freddie were supposed to make RE MORE affordable to an ever broader audience and yet here we are. Would specuvestors be converting apts. to condos (soon to be "repartments") if SFH's were sanely priced?

Randy H

on the thesis:

fair enough and good answer, that makes total sense.

Peace.

not to nitpick, but:

[...] you wrote a masters thesis [...]
[therefore]
[you must think] that means your opinions, are, like, more well thought out than us non-intellectuals..

Is the same sort of fallacious logic. But I'll let it slide as it's probably just your opinion of my opinion.

I meant a sly ;) in the above.

Peace. And I do apologize if I was coming off sounding authoritative. I despise arguments from authority as much as I suspect you do.

Man, this article is so studded with precious quotes, it's destined for the Patrick.net Hall of Fame:

[L.A. Mayor Antonio] Villaraigosa says: "Cities haven't been aggressive enough about addressing the crisis, and neither has the state or the federal government. ... (The solution) has to be an unprecedented public-private partnership that involves all levels of government and business."

Yes, Antonio, that's just what the housing unaffordability problem needs --MORE government "solutions". To address all the imbalances created by government "solutions" in the first place.

He notes that he was the first mayor to fully fund the city's housing trust fund at $100 million. Since the program was launched in 2003, it has helped raise $1 billion to build 4,900 low-income apartment units.

When it's pointed out that that amounts to about $204,000 a unit, and less than 1% of Los Angeles' rental stock, Villaraigosa shoots back, "Well, you got a better idea?"

Ooh, ooh, ooh --I got one!: Abolish the Fed & GSEs, allow much more housing (of all types) to be built, slash the local/state red tape and close the f--king border for a couple of years.

Don't worry Randy,

I've forgotten more about grammar than most people remember, if you catch my drift.

I don't bother even rereading what I type before I transmit it, because, really, what's the point? This medium is kind of like a long crazed Kerouac novel, that needs to breathe, if you catch my drift.

I don't bother presenting any facts with any arguments either, as my usual method is to argue by analogy, and type in a URL as supporting evidence.

It's much more entertaining and ten times faster than real research.

If I ever go back to school I will have to change my sloppy ways.....

But like the needle to the housing bubble, if I detect a simple logical bubble to pop, well, that's kind of irresistable...

HARM,

Uh, that's what I thought. O.K now in a never ending quest for understanding;

Are there ANY circumstances under which GSE's would have had a "positive" net end effect?

Personally, I recommend an immediate 40% collapse in housing prices throughout North America.

That would be so excellent.

@DinOR,

Almost forgot about those cap gains/tax deductions for RE specuvestors --abolish those too.

As far as the GSEs "helping" to make housing more "affordable", consider the explosion of GSE-issued MBS paper in the last 10 years, which oddly enough cooincides almost perfectly with the explosion in housing PRICES and LACK of affordability over the same period. Personally, I see no reason why the GSEs need to exist, and two very good reasons why they should NOT: (1) "too big to fail" implicit taxpayer bail-out guarantee (see LTCM & FSLIC history), (2) artificially low MBS risk premiums thanks to Fed's liquidity pump and #(1).

IMHO, the private capital markets are quite capable of providing sufficient mortgage liquidity with sane risk premiums without the so-called "help" of the GSEs or the Fed

This article has given me a bold idea for the capital markets:

What we really need is a way to securitize human bodies. Thus, eggs, sperm, kidneys and liver chunks could all be borrowed against. The resultant injection of cash into the market would allow many people who couldn't have previously borrowed for a house to be able to qualify by promising a pound of flesh should they default. Heart and lung notes would truly give a new meaning to the term "Suicide Loan."

Abolish the Fed

I hope that is a joke. I'm trying to imagine a global economy without Central Banks, or a global economy in which one country unilaterally dissolves its Central Bank.

*shiver*

tsusiat,

Not entirely sure if you're being completely up front but as painful as it might be for some (and uncomfortable for most) we finally have to weigh what will be in the best interests of the majority long term. Obviously 195% appreciation in a little over six years is not a sustainable model.

I hope that is a joke. I’m trying to imagine a global economy without Central Banks, or a global economy in which one country unilaterally dissolves its Central Bank.

*shiver*

Explain to me in plain English exactly HOW the Fed's mission has anything to do with "helping" the public (non bankers) and how they've actually succeeded in that role, and perhaps I'll consider retracting that statement.

girls in college these days are complete and utter whores.

Unless they are getting jiggy-jiggidy by themselves there is a dude involved also. Remember these are the boomers kids and what do boomers enjoy most? Getting high and getting freaky. The doobie doesn't fall far from the bong my friend.

What we really need is a way to securitize human bodies. Thus, eggs, sperm, kidneys and liver chunks could all be borrowed against. The resultant injection of cash into the market would allow many people who couldn’t have previously borrowed for a house to be able to qualify by promising a pound of flesh should they default.

FRIFY -

Shakespeare dealt with this well in "The Merchant of Venice".