patrick.net

"anything the FED finds worth doing is worth overdoing"

My father used to say that "enough is enough (but TOO much is not enough) but I'm pretty sure he was talking about drinking?

Your laddered maturities speak volumes. Isn't it just incredible the lengths we have to go to for a couple of bps?

Bill Ford says "bankruptcy is not an option". Don't be ridiculous William Clay Ford the 3rd! (BK is always an option!) What say ya'll?

Oh, please. So you’re giving up just because some of the bloggers disagree with you? Tsk, tsk… This is beyond the straw man –this is just sour grapes.

Not the high caliber of debate I’ve come to expect from Sir Randall. I’m rather disappointed :-(

You are right. I should spend all of my waning free time constructing thoughtful answers just so someone can pick out the last line of my many paragraph argument, put italics around it, and say "why is that a bad thing?" or "what's wrong with the market deciding". Sorry, that's not debate. Half the time I hear "let the market decide" the commentor probably couldn't even define the relevant market and explain the mechanism by which it "decides", let alone tell me "what's wrong or right with letting it decide". Invoking free-market doctrine when convenient is nothing more than ideology, and does a disservice to those who truly favor free market solutions.

...but there I go again, just setting up more text to be quoted with a clever "challenge" or open-ended, generalized "refutation" tacked on the end.

…but there I go again, just setting up more text to be quoted with a clever “challenge” or open-ended, generalized “refutation” tacked on the end.

italics :)

My main feelings about global warming are similar to those with urban-sprawl.

Wow. I may have to re-think my stand on anthropogenic global warming. ;-)

Mainly, both require a complete lack of consideration for the future. Why must we as a society focus so much on ourselves? Can’t we take others (our children) into consideration?

Huh? How did we get from A to B here? Not "fighting" urban sprawl (by supporting more NIMBY anti-development regulations, I suppose) means I don't care about children? What about the role of massive illegal immigration & population growth in "sprawl"? What if I consider "caring about my children" to mean I want them to be able to afford a house here someday?

I just find it beyond amazing that California has allowed unrestricted construction to wipe out farming communities for the all mighty dollar. The fact that these farms feed us is completely ignored as everyone focuses on making every extra penny possible. I don’t have a problem with growth, but it should be controlled otherwise we end up with massive sprawling cities that cover the landscape.

I don't even know where to start with the logic disconnects here. "Controlled growth", meaning controlled housing supply, but NOT controlled demand (population/immigration).
Yeah... that's been working out REAL well for California over the last 30 years or so. :lol:

While considering moving to Portland, I have been reading about Measure 37. Essentially, Portland’s reputation as an environmentally friendly city is about to end as all land building restrictions that were imposed in the 1970’s are removed. What the hell is wrong with people today? Is there attitude essentially, “how dare my parents protect the environment?” While reading an article about the changes, a developer who worked hard to get the measure passed commented, “It is the American way.”

Thank God! I hope this thing passes with flying colors. Maybe the "spirit of 37" will spill over into CA if it does.

Randy writes:

You are right. ... let the market decide

Just kidding.

Relax Randy. We all love you and and most of us are thankful for your thoughtful responses and insights. If everyone here would ignore the ad hominen arguments and unsupported statements and respond thoughfully when they felt motivated, the overall dialog would definitely be better.

Cutting down on the personal insults would help too folks, not that I haven't been guilty from time to time (where's my buddy Vince?).

@Randy,

Don't like seeing your words quoted back in italics, eh? Tell you what --I'll quote MYSELF this time:

BTW, I never said we need to completely abolish ALL functions that a “Central Bank” typically performs. I just said that most of the USEFUL and NECESSARY functions (such as printing currency/coinage, protecting it from counterfeiters, etc.) is already being performed by the U.S. Treasury Dept.

I see no reason why they cannot simply absorb what (few) useful functions the Fed now performs exclusively, such as setting reserve requirements and regulating lenders. As far as counter-party risk oversight, and nominal interest rate setting, I’m pretty sure the open market has been able to do this effectively for centuries.

Points:
1. I STILL haven't gotten a response from you on this one.
2. Insulting/generalizing/dismissing the other side (no matter how weak/feeble you believe their arguments are) does not make for constructive debate.

1/4 pt. Waaaaah!

Relax Randy. We all love you and and most of us are thankful for your thoughtful responses and insights. If everyone here would ignore the ad hominen arguments and unsupported statements and respond thoughfully when they felt motivated, the overall dialog would definitely be better.

I agree. Let's keep insults, unproven assumptions about "the other side", and unsupported generalizations out of discussion.

I have always valued your input, Randy, and consider you to be one of the smartest, most articulate and logical people here. I immensely enjoy debating you, and more often than not am completely on your side of the argument. However, I think you are starting to take some of the Fed criticisms a tad too personally.

How long until "flip that house" gets replaced with "fuck that house".

Key sign the shit has truly hit the fan is the laying off of realtwhores. When they start getting hit their advice will be along the lines of, "sell for whatever you can, were there to help".

I have always valued your input, Randy, and consider you to be one of the smartest, most articulate and logical people here.

But Randy is our Caesar. He gives us wisdom and salad.

Hey, X,

It's getting close to the 4th. What do you think --have the BBQ on the weekend or the 4th itself?

Btw, just got Mrs. HARM's glasses from Mr. Schmoe --thanks.

El HARM-o how about the 3rd? I have to work on Wednesday, well if you call doing nothing all day, ok, so maybe I surf the net a bit.

Sir Randall is Viceroy of the Fat Stacks.

Global warming is not just about CO2 emissions. The reason the atmospheric concentrations are increasing so much is due to the massive deforestation over the past centuries as much as rising emissions. Urbanisation also creates hot spots - all that concrete etc.

Again, please show that the effects are:

1. global, and
2. mostly attributed to human activities

So far I have only heard attempted explanation of some warming effects as being attributed to human activities. Also, I have heard that many glaciers are shrinking, although the fact that some glaciers are growing is conveniently omitted.

X,

The 3rd is out for me --operating on a skeleton crew already, which means I'm "it" at the office. Sunday's spoken for, so that just leaves Sat & the 4th itself.

El HARM-O, yeah this weekend booked up amazingly well. How's about mid july or labor day?

How’s about mid July or Labor Day?

Either's ok for me --whatever fits into your plans better. We'll talk offline.

Surfer X,

You know I think a lot of those shows are already losing steam. The other night I couldn't get to sleep (9:30pm is late for us) and was flipping through the channels and couldn't find but ONE! Normally there are at least 4 or 5 going 24/7!

Is there a way to just send Patrick a check for the year? Setting up a Pay Pal acct. is probably beyond my technical expertise. Just wondering.

Is there a way to just send Patrick a check for the year? Setting up a Pay Pal acct. is probably beyond my technical expertise. Just wondering.

Sure, just drop him a line, p at patrick.net

So, if the Greenland ice is melting doesn't that disprove they "aren't making land" anymore? How about trailers that float?

If humans are not responsible - what major natural events are you positing as responsible?

Yes, us humans are so great that everything big is caused by us.

Global warming is about global MEAN temperatures increasing. The fact that they drop in some geographical locales simply means that they increase more in others. Like here.

Of course, median price is not going down, there is no bubble.

doesn’t that disprove they “aren’t making land” anymore

Anyone watched the new Superman movie yet?

While a few scientists speak of global warming as a fact, many more—especially those who are directly involved in climate science—say the data do not support it. To date, 19,700 scientists, including 2,660 physicists, geophysicists, climatologists, meteorologists, oceanographers, and environmental scientists, have signed a petition sponsored by the Oregon Institute of Science and Medicine that discounts global warming. Its accompanying report concludes:

A competing, pro-global-warming petition circulated by the Union of Concerned Scientists in 1997 garnered only 1,559 signatures of scientists.

http://bibletools.org/index.cfm/fuseaction/Library.show/CT/PW/k/737

Just to be clear, what do you favor? Free market? Let builders do as they please. Or something else?

I would favor free market. Just let the builders do as they please and our children will have a good environment. Otherwise, they will only have an environment that we thought they would like.

Ok Peter, so they know more at bibletools than at the UK Met Office

Lets agree to disagree and leave it at that…

Sure. Just keep in mind that "global warming" is a powerful political tool, especially in foreign affairs.

Glad I didn’t do any shorting. The market roaring today.

Same. I have almost finished entering the ticket. Glad I did not execute the trade.

Will this rally peter out to give us some shorting opportunities or is this the start of a new upward trend?

Something does not smell right. Expect a surprise soon.

As long as that is to septic/well code to protect water, building code to protect inhabitants, and some sort of zoning code I am for it.

Of course we need these guidelines. :)

And why did the Japanese leader with the cool hairdo seem way smarter than Bush today?

One word: sushi.

I'm at a loss to explain this as well. So had the Fed raised 50 bps we would have had twice the rally?

@Returning to Bay Area,

To clarify, I am a socially moderate-to-liberal, fiscally conservative Libertarian (with a small "l", I suppose). Meaning that I support limited government and maxmimum personal freedoms, and this includes free enterprise.

I do believe that a "level playing field" (maxmizing opportunity for everyone) is a good thing, but NOT imposing "equality" by dictat. I do see a benefit to a reasonable level of government regulations and public oversight to protect consumers from fraud/theft, the environment from excessive pollution, small businesses from being stomped on by large ones, etc.

As Randy H often points out, "free market" does not equal "zero regulation", and completely unregulated markets tend to evolve over time into monopolies and cartels, which is hardly a desirable outcome for consumer choice. But I do NOT see centrally planned economies as the "solution" to the tragedy of the commons. Unfortunately, many of the so-called "cures" to problems observed in capitalist markets, no matter how well intentioned, often end up being worse than the disease. This is what economists term "moral hazards", aka negative unintended consequences.

Urban Growth Boundaries (such as the one Portland has adopted) are a good example of this principle. UBLs tend to be exclusively supply-centric (focusing entirely on restricting new housing stock), while completely ignoring demand (population growth). As a result, they inevitably fail to produce the utopian results desired ("Urban Renewal", "Smart growth", etc.) but DO result in the price of housing going up significantly long-term --even in the absence of other factors, such as the Fed's recent liquidity bubble.

I think that a reasonable thought process into expansion would be to curtail growth unless it is population driven.

What "growth" isn't population-driven?

Essentially, we study current cities ratios of population size to geographical size, then place limits for the future that force similar patterns. I believe this is what Portland has been doing.

And who determines what constitutes the "correct" population density in a given region? And how are Portland City planners better at determining this than the free market (consumers)?

As the population rises, they move zoning restrictions outward by an amount determined by the amount of new land required to keep the population density the same.

Again, if higher population density is so great, why does government have to use UBLs for "force" this on consumers? Why shouldn't consumers get to choose whether they want high, medium or low density housing?

alien,

I agree, what's up with the dollar falling? Oh well, I'll be taking a few days off for the 4th and tomorrow IS Friday!

"And why did the Japanese leader with the cool hairdo seem way smarter than Bush today?"

Maybe sushi, yes. Sushi is a magical thing. It could also be because he shares a birthday with Elvis.

Sushi is a magical thing.

Sushi is just a tiny part of Japanese cuisine. My mind is now filled with the mental picture of Japanese food, all kinds of Japanese food, whole room filled with Japanese food. So colorful!

Of course, limiting outside growth might encourage that. Right?

If we take away all NIMBYist restricts, one natural consequence is that urban centers will start to build up and far-away suburbs will disappear. People do want to live closer to urban centers if NIMBYism is not denying the right kind of urban-renewal.

As to Japanese food, I only know SukiYaki

I can cook Sukiyaki. Good beef is the key. Vary the portion of sake, mirin, soy sauce, sugar, and water as you please.

Very important: use beef lard to caramelize leek or white onion

Peter P,

I was in the bookstore the other day and they had "Building the Traditional Japanese House Today". The level of craftsmanship that goes into making a simple wood joint is just amazing (especially considering one in an area that will likely never be seen!) It gives us some insight as to their level of dedication and attention to detail that seems at odds with today's construction techniques. Evidently this dedication transfers to their cooking skills as well.

*No Black and Decker tools were harmed in the making of this book!

>>I’m at a loss to explain this as well. So had the Fed raised 50 bps we would have had twice the rally?

Hehe. Funny. :->

No, I think the way it worked was that fear of a 50 was keeping the market down. When it was 25, relief swept in.

Regardless, I am just against suburbs as far as the eye can see. If I am not doing a good job describing a method that would prevent that, then I apologize. I think it is nice to have urban, suburban, and rural environments. I grew up in an area where the city center was about 20 minutes across, then the suburbs on each side were about 20 minutes across, then the farmland began. I always thought those were nice ratios and worthy of maintaining.

I understand where you're coming from and, as a life-long CA native, can even sympathize. However, I'm hoping you can keep an open mind and see where I'm coming from.

You may feel that having X% urban/high-density, Y% suburban-exurban/medium density and Z% rural/low-density and a 20-minute "radius" per band as an optimum allocation of housing resources and population density. However, this is a purely subjective and personal value judgment. Others probably feel differently, and for various reasons (not all of them entirely selfish). Some may prefer to live in Manhattan-style urban-only environments, while some prefer to live far away from any urban areas.

My point is, we all have our own varying (and equally valid) idea of what constitutes "ideal" housing and population distribution. I would much rather empower individual consumers the power to choose what type of housing they want than have this decision forced upon them by supposedly more "enlightened" politicians and bureaucrats. In the end, consumer choices will be constrained by practical realities and trade-offs anyhow (short commute time vs. bigger yard, lower land costs vs. close to shopping, etc.), so the end result is always a compromise among people's competing priorites.

"Ideal" is always in the eye of the beholder, regardless of the education level or intelligence of the person doing the choosing.

Daggnabit with those italics. Re-posted. (Moderator, if you would like, please delete the previous post)...

DinOR Says:

June 29th, 2006 at 12:25 pm
I’m at a loss to explain this as well. So had the Fed raised 50 bps we would have had twice the rally?

This is making me very disappointed in the Fed. If you read the statement:

http://tinyurl.com/rqth6

it’s wishy-washy and sets themselves up for moving up, down, or staying put at the next round in August. Now I’m convinced they are only TRYING to appear hard on inflation, but they want to keep the liquidity flowing along as long as possible. Maybe through the elections in November??? Of course the market rallied. It wasn’t a 50bp hike, and the statement leaves room for a pause or worse next time around. What a bunch of asswipes.

“Recent indicators suggest that economic growth is moderating from its quite strong pace earlier this year, partly reflecting a gradual cooling of the housing market and the lagged effects of increases in interest rates and energy prices.”

I couldn't resist that Tucson thread. I posted as Subcranium.