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So... Mr. Bernanke, what would you say ya do here?


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2006 Jun 27, 2:31pm   20,018 views  277 comments

by HARM   ➕follow (0)   💰tip   ignore  

Bob

Randy H Said:

Abolish the Fed

I hope that is a joke. I’m trying to imagine a global economy without Central Banks, or a global economy in which one country unilaterally dissolves its Central Bank.

*shiver*

HARM Replied:

Explain to me in plain English exactly HOW the Fed’s mission has anything to do with “helping” the public (non bankers) and how they’ve actually succeeded in that role, and perhaps I’ll consider retracting that statement.

Federal Reserve System from Wikipedia
Roles and responsibilities
The main tasks of the Federal Reserve are to:

–Supervise and regulate banks
Not doing so well on that score lately from my POV.

–Implement monetary policy by open market operations, setting the discount rate, and setting the reserve ratio
Yes, they’ve done a “mah-velous” job of flooding capital markets with unlimited liquidity, blowing asset bubbles and destroying the value of the USD –kudos to them!

–Maintain a strong payments system
No argument here –creditors/lenders of all kinds have enjoyed limitless cash-flow under the Fed. Debtors on the other hand…

–Control the amount of currency that is made and destroyed on a day to day basis (in conjunction with the Mint and Bureau of Engraving and Printing)
Kind of depends on what you mean by “control”, doesn’t it? If you mean “set the money-creation spigot permanently to ‘ON’ and flood asset/capital markets until you have one speculative bubble after another”, then they’ve done a bang-up job!

In short, I believe the Fed has failed miserably at serving the public’s interests (assuming that it ever really had anything to do with this –I doubt it) and has only succeeded in making the business cycle even more volatile/extreme than it already was. Let’s not forget that the 1930s Great Depression, 1970s Stagflation and several severe recessions occurred on the Fed’s watch (founded in 1913), as has the consistent destruction of the purchasing power of the USD, in the interests of fake nominal “growth” through inflation.

The Treasury handles the production of paper money and coinage just fine. What exactly do we (the public) need a Federal Reserve System for?

Discuss, enjoy...
HARM

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198   surfer-x   2006 Jun 29, 4:47am  

So, if the Greenland ice is melting doesn't that disprove they "aren't making land" anymore? How about trailers that float?

199   Peter P   2006 Jun 29, 4:49am  

If humans are not responsible - what major natural events are you positing as responsible?

Yes, us humans are so great that everything big is caused by us.

Global warming is about global MEAN temperatures increasing. The fact that they drop in some geographical locales simply means that they increase more in others. Like here.

Of course, median price is not going down, there is no bubble.

200   Peter P   2006 Jun 29, 4:51am  

doesn’t that disprove they “aren’t making land” anymore

Anyone watched the new Superman movie yet?

201   Peter P   2006 Jun 29, 4:55am  

While a few scientists speak of global warming as a fact, many more—especially those who are directly involved in climate science—say the data do not support it. To date, 19,700 scientists, including 2,660 physicists, geophysicists, climatologists, meteorologists, oceanographers, and environmental scientists, have signed a petition sponsored by the Oregon Institute of Science and Medicine that discounts global warming. Its accompanying report concludes:

There are no experimental data to support the hypothesis that increases in carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases are causing or can be expected to cause catastrophic changes in global temperatures or weather. To the contrary, during the 20 years with the highest carbon dioxide levels, atmospheric temperatures have decreased.2

A competing, pro-global-warming petition circulated by the Union of Concerned Scientists in 1997 garnered only 1,559 signatures of scientists.

http://bibletools.org/index.cfm/fuseaction/Library.show/CT/PW/k/737

202   Peter P   2006 Jun 29, 5:06am  

Just to be clear, what do you favor? Free market? Let builders do as they please. Or something else?

I would favor free market. Just let the builders do as they please and our children will have a good environment. Otherwise, they will only have an environment that we thought they would like.

203   Peter P   2006 Jun 29, 5:07am  

Ok Peter, so they know more at bibletools than at the UK Met Office

Lets agree to disagree and leave it at that…

Sure. Just keep in mind that "global warming" is a powerful political tool, especially in foreign affairs.

204   Peter P   2006 Jun 29, 5:13am  

Glad I didn’t do any shorting. The market roaring today.

Same. I have almost finished entering the ticket. Glad I did not execute the trade.

Will this rally peter out to give us some shorting opportunities or is this the start of a new upward trend?

Something does not smell right. Expect a surprise soon.

205   Peter P   2006 Jun 29, 5:16am  

As long as that is to septic/well code to protect water, building code to protect inhabitants, and some sort of zoning code I am for it.

Of course we need these guidelines. :)

206   Peter P   2006 Jun 29, 5:18am  

And why did the Japanese leader with the cool hairdo seem way smarter than Bush today?

One word: sushi.

207   DinOR   2006 Jun 29, 5:25am  

I'm at a loss to explain this as well. So had the Fed raised 50 bps we would have had twice the rally?

208   HARM   2006 Jun 29, 5:26am  

@Returning to Bay Area,

To clarify, I am a socially moderate-to-liberal, fiscally conservative Libertarian (with a small "l", I suppose). Meaning that I support limited government and maxmimum personal freedoms, and this includes free enterprise.

I do believe that a "level playing field" (maxmizing opportunity for everyone) is a good thing, but NOT imposing "equality" by dictat. I do see a benefit to a reasonable level of government regulations and public oversight to protect consumers from fraud/theft, the environment from excessive pollution, small businesses from being stomped on by large ones, etc.

As Randy H often points out, "free market" does not equal "zero regulation", and completely unregulated markets tend to evolve over time into monopolies and cartels, which is hardly a desirable outcome for consumer choice. But I do NOT see centrally planned economies as the "solution" to the tragedy of the commons. Unfortunately, many of the so-called "cures" to problems observed in capitalist markets, no matter how well intentioned, often end up being worse than the disease. This is what economists term "moral hazards", aka negative unintended consequences.

Urban Growth Boundaries (such as the one Portland has adopted) are a good example of this principle. UBLs tend to be exclusively supply-centric (focusing entirely on restricting new housing stock), while completely ignoring demand (population growth). As a result, they inevitably fail to produce the utopian results desired ("Urban Renewal", "Smart growth", etc.) but DO result in the price of housing going up significantly long-term --even in the absence of other factors, such as the Fed's recent liquidity bubble.

I think that a reasonable thought process into expansion would be to curtail growth unless it is population driven.

What "growth" isn't population-driven?

Essentially, we study current cities ratios of population size to geographical size, then place limits for the future that force similar patterns. I believe this is what Portland has been doing.

And who determines what constitutes the "correct" population density in a given region? And how are Portland City planners better at determining this than the free market (consumers)?

As the population rises, they move zoning restrictions outward by an amount determined by the amount of new land required to keep the population density the same.

Again, if higher population density is so great, why does government have to use UBLs for "force" this on consumers? Why shouldn't consumers get to choose whether they want high, medium or low density housing?

209   DinOR   2006 Jun 29, 5:28am  

alien,

I agree, what's up with the dollar falling? Oh well, I'll be taking a few days off for the 4th and tomorrow IS Friday!

210   Red Whine   2006 Jun 29, 5:29am  

"And why did the Japanese leader with the cool hairdo seem way smarter than Bush today?"

Maybe sushi, yes. Sushi is a magical thing. It could also be because he shares a birthday with Elvis.

211   Peter P   2006 Jun 29, 5:34am  

Sushi is a magical thing.

Sushi is just a tiny part of Japanese cuisine. My mind is now filled with the mental picture of Japanese food, all kinds of Japanese food, whole room filled with Japanese food. So colorful!

212   Peter P   2006 Jun 29, 5:38am  

Of course, limiting outside growth might encourage that. Right?

If we take away all NIMBYist restricts, one natural consequence is that urban centers will start to build up and far-away suburbs will disappear. People do want to live closer to urban centers if NIMBYism is not denying the right kind of urban-renewal.

213   Peter P   2006 Jun 29, 5:45am  

As to Japanese food, I only know SukiYaki

I can cook Sukiyaki. Good beef is the key. Vary the portion of sake, mirin, soy sauce, sugar, and water as you please.

Very important: use beef lard to caramelize leek or white onion

214   DinOR   2006 Jun 29, 6:30am  

Peter P,

I was in the bookstore the other day and they had "Building the Traditional Japanese House Today". The level of craftsmanship that goes into making a simple wood joint is just amazing (especially considering one in an area that will likely never be seen!) It gives us some insight as to their level of dedication and attention to detail that seems at odds with today's construction techniques. Evidently this dedication transfers to their cooking skills as well.

*No Black and Decker tools were harmed in the making of this book!

215   MichaelAnderson   2006 Jun 29, 6:36am  

>>I’m at a loss to explain this as well. So had the Fed raised 50 bps we would have had twice the rally?

Hehe. Funny. :->

No, I think the way it worked was that fear of a 50 was keeping the market down. When it was 25, relief swept in.

216   HARM   2006 Jun 29, 6:37am  

Regardless, I am just against suburbs as far as the eye can see. If I am not doing a good job describing a method that would prevent that, then I apologize. I think it is nice to have urban, suburban, and rural environments. I grew up in an area where the city center was about 20 minutes across, then the suburbs on each side were about 20 minutes across, then the farmland began. I always thought those were nice ratios and worthy of maintaining.

I understand where you're coming from and, as a life-long CA native, can even sympathize. However, I'm hoping you can keep an open mind and see where I'm coming from.

You may feel that having X% urban/high-density, Y% suburban-exurban/medium density and Z% rural/low-density and a 20-minute "radius" per band as an optimum allocation of housing resources and population density. However, this is a purely subjective and personal value judgment. Others probably feel differently, and for various reasons (not all of them entirely selfish). Some may prefer to live in Manhattan-style urban-only environments, while some prefer to live far away from any urban areas.

My point is, we all have our own varying (and equally valid) idea of what constitutes "ideal" housing and population distribution. I would much rather empower individual consumers the power to choose what type of housing they want than have this decision forced upon them by supposedly more "enlightened" politicians and bureaucrats. In the end, consumer choices will be constrained by practical realities and trade-offs anyhow (short commute time vs. bigger yard, lower land costs vs. close to shopping, etc.), so the end result is always a compromise among people's competing priorites.

"Ideal" is always in the eye of the beholder, regardless of the education level or intelligence of the person doing the choosing.

217   skibum   2006 Jun 29, 6:39am  

Daggnabit with those italics. Re-posted. (Moderator, if you would like, please delete the previous post)...

DinOR Says:

June 29th, 2006 at 12:25 pm
I’m at a loss to explain this as well. So had the Fed raised 50 bps we would have had twice the rally?

This is making me very disappointed in the Fed. If you read the statement:

http://tinyurl.com/rqth6

it’s wishy-washy and sets themselves up for moving up, down, or staying put at the next round in August. Now I’m convinced they are only TRYING to appear hard on inflation, but they want to keep the liquidity flowing along as long as possible. Maybe through the elections in November??? Of course the market rallied. It wasn’t a 50bp hike, and the statement leaves room for a pause or worse next time around. What a bunch of asswipes.

“Recent indicators suggest that economic growth is moderating from its quite strong pace earlier this year, partly reflecting a gradual cooling of the housing market and the lagged effects of increases in interest rates and energy prices.”

218   MichaelAnderson   2006 Jun 29, 6:48am  

I couldn't resist that Tucson thread. I posted as Subcranium.

219   HARM   2006 Jun 29, 6:49am  

As far as city planners doing better? Well, city planners would consider the benefit of everyone (including future participants). Consumers, on the other hand, don’t even know what is in their own best interest. They are not educated on most matters.

This is a rather insulting and paternalistic (and might I say, un-democratic) thing to say. Government does not always know "what's best for us" nor always act in ways that are beneficial to the general public. Obviously, some planning is needed (to ensure that adequate public infrastructure is built --schools, roads, sewer/power, etc.-- but I'll take the end result of competing "dumb" consumer choices any day over Central Planning.

220   HARM   2006 Jun 29, 6:53am  

No, I think the way it worked was that fear of a 50 was keeping the market down. When it was 25, relief swept in.

You may be onto something here.

221   DinOR   2006 Jun 29, 6:55am  

Michael Anderson/skibum,

Best explanations I've heard yet! I think this is where so much of the (my) bitterness comes from. During the whole "dog and pony" show of the last 16 hikes is that they were coming UP from 1% and was like beating DL and cartel with a WET NOODLE! Was there ever any real fear that the hikes would be meaningful? That they would actually have an impact on mortgage rates? Noooooooo. So here we are stuck again in limbo with another "pity rally". Great..........

222   Randy H   2006 Jun 29, 6:56am  

HARM,

No worries. I'm still here; just very busy lately.

I'll agree that in theory what you describe -- a world without modern Central Banks, but instead just functioning Treasuries -- could well be more efficient and fair.

Instead of arguing about the relative merits of the Fed (or the BoJ, ECB, etc), perhaps looking at it like this will clarify my position. Note, I don't take Fed criticism personally; I wish Feldberg had gotten the job:

We must have a Central Bank because everyone else has one. It's basic game theory. We have to actively manage our nominal rates because everyone else does. Even if we could get everyone to agree to get rid of their Central Banks, someone would cheat and everyone would have to bring them back or mimic the functions somewhere else.

Someone theorized that if we eliminated the Fed then the USD would just be set at "market", and "what's wrong with that?" Here's what's wrong with that. The "market" wouldn't be a free market, but a market manipulated by Korea, Japan, China, etc. to maximize their economic benefit even where to the detriment of other, "Fed Free" countries. So yes, a market would set your interest rates and the value of the dollar, but it wouldn't be a free market, just a much worse market than we have today.

223   skibum   2006 Jun 29, 7:01am  

Someone theorized that if we eliminated the Fed then the USD would just be set at “market”, and “what’s wrong with that?” Here’s what’s wrong with that. The “market” wouldn’t be a free market, but a market manipulated by Korea, Japan, China, etc. to maximize their economic benefit even where to the detriment of other, “Fed Free” countries. So yes, a market would set your interest rates and the value of the dollar, but it wouldn’t be a free market, just a much worse market than we have today.

Not only that, but what this theory fails to account for is that the USD enjoys the status of world standard for all things financial. Despite the gradual decline over the past several decades, we as a country still get a ton of benefit from that advantage. Lose that, and we're REALLY screwed.

224   DinOR   2006 Jun 29, 7:06am  

Randy H,

I DO hear your arguments. I understand as well as appreciate your position that if it wasn't the FED it would be something very much "like" the FED but today is another case in point to "de-politicize" that office. By FURTHER delaying a much needed correction in housing prices we can all go to the polls feeling warm and fuzzy. This should be about what the economy needs, not what the administration needs?

225   Randy H   2006 Jun 29, 7:10am  

DinOR,

I agree 100% on the need to keep politics and Monetary Policy separate. The recent politicization of the Fed is just part of a wider politicization of everything, from Courts to Schools to Central Banks. All this perversion of every system in existence for short-term political gain won't end well, I'm afraid.

226   DinOR   2006 Jun 29, 7:21am  

Randy H,

True enough. I've heard it said that it will be difficult to get "the genie back in the bottle" where the FED is concerned but try we must.

227   Randy H   2006 Jun 29, 7:22am  

Further thoughts on the reason we must have a "Fed Function" (that is Central Bank).

Keep in mind that nominal rates are linked directly and unbreakably from currency exchange rates. This is called interest-rate-parity. Covered IRP must always be true or else the currency will be arbitraged. And foreign exchange is the one area where there is certainly enough arbitrage power to force an efficient market pricing.

It works like this (simplified and stylized): If 1USD = 1EUR, and each country had a 5% nominal rate, then everything is great. Let's pretend that's the natural, no-fed equilibrium. But then the EU cheats and somehow forces all their banks to pay 6%. The EUR must appreciate or else everyone will just take loans in USDs and buy EURs because they can get more EURs for their USD by taking a loan at 5% and opening a savings account at 6%.

The result of a world where the US had no CB but China did would be a world where China dictated US interest rates, which would be extraordinarily high. To the US consumer then, they would be in a situation where the only products they could afford would come from China and other similar countries. Basically, the same may be true today buy only if China, Korea, etc. all "agree" to keep buying our dollars to manipulate their currency rate.

228   HARM   2006 Jun 29, 7:22am  

Ok, Randy,

Glad there are no hard feelings --sorry, if I got a tad personal.

I see your point on the game theory/foreign currency manipulation angle. We can all agree that the increasing politicization of monetary policy, science, etc. is a bad thing for society overall, and us plebians in particular. How to go about de-politicizing it is another question.

229   Peter P   2006 Jun 29, 7:26am  

How to go about de-politicizing it is another question.

Or, more importantly, how to exploit the situation when we know that nothing can be done.

230   Randy H   2006 Jun 29, 7:26am  

HARM,

How to go about de-politicizing it is another question.

That's easy: space colonization. The only politics of the new-world colonies for at least the first couple hundred years would be ridding themselves of Earth's unfair taxation without representation.

231   HARM   2006 Jun 29, 7:37am  

Of course, all of this could end up moot. If energy prices keep rising and urban communities keep flourishing, then eventually this suburban sprawl will stop as people can’t afford the commute. Will it take $10 gas? Maybe. Of course, all bets are off if some replacement comes along and makes travel cheap. I think at that point, the inevitable suburban expansion will continue. Well, unless population starts to drop. I think the US is near joining the list of nations where each woman has less than 2 children.

Exactly. There are so many exogenous forces constantly at work on influencing consumer choice and individual priorities, there's no way to precisely predict what people will choose tomorrow. This is also why central planning will never completely replace open markets as a more efficient resource allocation mechanism. Too many unknown interrelated variables, too many complicated feedback loops, too much change.

232   MichaelAnderson   2006 Jun 29, 7:39am  

>>We can all agree that the increasing politicization of monetary policy, science, etc. is a bad thing for society overall, and us plebians in particular.

I agree with everything but the word "increasing." Are you sure it's increasing? I can't tell that from reading accounts of previous eras.

233   HARM   2006 Jun 29, 9:17am  

@Michael Anderson,

Point taken. Well, I haven't been alive (or at least as an adult tuned into housing/politics/finance) long enough to qualify as an "expert", but my relatively short span, I've observed subjects that used to be (somewhat) sheilded from the election cycle becoming MUCH more politicized --especially in the last 15 years. Of course, this is merely my subjective opinion, but... remember Paul Volcker? The guy who raised the Fed funds rate above 18% in the early '80s and triggered the worst recession since the Great Depression. And did it to break the back of out-of-control inflation.

Can you imagine the current fed chief doing that today?

I can also recall a time when the CPI reflected something close to "true" inflation. Before the magical "improvements" of hedonics, substitution and plain-old leaving shit out. Oh well...

Can't just blame the Repugnican pols, either (though they do happen to be in charge of all 3 branches of government at the moment). Those big, wonderful speculative-inducing tax breaks occurred under Clinton's watch. Ditto for starting the trend of blatantly gaming the CPI and blowing asset bubbles. Plus, I see the level of shrillness rising on both sides, to the detriment of useful discourse.

234   HARM   2006 Jun 29, 9:21am  

Btw, I'm sure you've all seen this by now, but Bernanke pussied out and raised FFR a paltry .25%. And indicated they are probably done raising them:

http://www.federalreserve.gov/boarddocs/press/monetary/2006/20060629/default.htm

Should still be enough to help break the HB's back, though more slowly than we would have liked.

235   Randy H   2006 Jun 29, 9:27am  

I remember a time when political wars were waged in the Middle. That was the way Reagan got elected by landslides. Political battles are now waged on the margins, not in the middle. We now distill everything, from social issues to economic issues to military issues to simple, black and white, you're either with us or them choices. Such choices are deceptively satisfying, but generally fail to address the real root of the issues. Such politics disillusions the majority in the middle who simply tune out, turn on reality TV, and ignore it all as long as they can. It's not as simple as sheeple morons wasting time watching American Idol. A lot of it is that American Idol is immeasurably more pleasurable to many folk than watching/listening to engineered personalities scream over one another in crude, staged, demonization fest, non-debates.

236   MichaelAnderson   2006 Jun 29, 9:27am  

>>but… remember Paul Volcker?

Well, that's a good point. But I like to look at that as one guy just being incredibly great.

I always thought that the most political time for these jobs was 1940-1980 when Democrats were so powerful they held an iron grip. But I guess because they were so dominant, it was all just understood. Maybe the shrillness comes from some level of parity.

237   MichaelAnderson   2006 Jun 29, 9:30am  

>>Such choices are deceptively satisfying, but generally fail to address the real root of the issues.

That's true. And nothing really gets solved so these battles become touchstones.

The only thing about American Idol that appeals to me is that it's the first public entertainment in decades that reaches across the generations. Everything else is so niche focused that a grandma doesn't know what a granddaughter is talking about.

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