patrick.net

First contestant: Peter P
food theme: toro

How about..

Fresh Toro Tartar
White truffle oil, quail egg, chives, white pepper

And apart from increasing rates, I don’t see what can cause this bubble to burst quickly.

There will be high inventory, low sales, no appreciation or even a small decrease in prices which remain flat for decades. But 10-15% drop does not help me.

I for one have never predicted a sharp or fast decline (you can scan the archives for my posts/predictions from a year ago and see this is true), though I highly doubt FBs can hold onto their negative cash-flow properties for "decades". I always expected the Fed would stop short of doing what was necessary to really "pop" this thing in a big way, as they have become little more than cheap political hacks, seeking to please/ensure re-election for the current crop of lying shitbags who appoint & confirm them.

This does not mean the bubble cannot/will not deflate, however. Though, yes, it will probably be slow & very sticky on the way down. The last one took some 6-7 years from peak to trough (using either sales or median price as a barometer) and I see no reason to be certain it will proceed more quickly this time around. Recall there are two ways for prices and rents/incomes to "revert to the mean": (1) prices holding relatively flat while inflation raises the price of everything else + wages, (2) nominal price cuts.

The correction/pop will most likely come as a combination of both (as it also did last time). We are already seeing nominal price drops in many CA locations (see recent CAR/Dataquick numbers). And we are at the very beginning of the down cycle. Have patience.

And why did the Japanese leader with the cool hairdo seem way smarter than Bush today?

they always do... why isn't the leadership of the free world subject to the rules of merit like everywhere else?

substitute any other govt as required:

And why did the ________ leader with the ________ seem way smarter than Bush today?

Why does he seem smarter than Bush? ... Because he is smarter than Bush.

Just to give you a nice graphical representation about just HOW dependent the economy is on MEW right now, here's a lovely chart from Calculated Risk:

MEW = Mortgage Equity Withdrawal: cash-out refinancing, HELOCs, etc.

Oh, and this doesn't even take into account the impact on HH incomes/employment when RE-related employment falls off a cliff. Remember, approx. 40% of all jobs created in the last 5 years have been RE related.

Randy says:
Half the time I hear “let the market decide” the commentor probably couldn’t even define the relevant market and explain the mechanism by which it “decides”, let alone tell me “what’s wrong or right with letting it decide”. Invoking free-market doctrine when convenient is nothing more than ideology, and does a disservice to those who truly favor free market solutions.

didn't you know? markets are benign, super-intelligent organisms that always produce the best result for everybody involved and for the environment.

'Capitalism is the astounding belief that the most wickedest of men will do the most wickedest of things for the greatest good of everyone.'
John Maynard Keynes

more keynesian quotes:

The decadent international but individualistic capitalism in the hands of which we found ourselves after the war is not a success. It is not intelligent. It is not beautiful. It is not just. It is not virtuous. And it doesn't deliver the goods.

Successful investing is anticipating the anticipations of others.

Americans are apt to be unduly interested in discovering what average opinion believes average opinion to be.

Education: the inculcation of the incomprehensible into the indifferent by the incompetent.

For at least another hundred years we must pretend to ourselves and to every one that fair is foul and foul is fair; for foul is useful and fair is not. Avarice and usury and precaution must be our gods for a little longer still.

I work for a Government I despise for ends I think criminal.

Like Odysseus, the President looked wiser when he was seated.

Most men love money and security more, and creation and construction less, as they get older.

The day is not far off when the economic problem will take the back seat where it belongs, and the arena of the heart and the head will be occupied or reoccupied, by our real problems - the problems of life and of human relations, of creation and behavior and religion.

In the long run, we're all dead.

RIP JK Galbraith, by the way (that's me, not keynes)

‘Capitalism is the astounding belief that the most wickedest of men will do the most wickedest of things for the greatest good of everyone.’

No doubt JMK said that with great irony, while more or less agreeing with the basic premise. Sort of similar to this one:

"It has been said that democracy is the worst form of government except all the others that have been tried."
--Sir Winston Churchill

Throw that in with greed. We have become a nation of greedy, ego-centric, selfish jerks. How did we get here?

hmmm, you split off from the noble, moderating influence of great britain...

Water vapor is some 70% of the atmospheric greehose gases but it wouldn’t do to drain the Chinese rice paddies or pull the plug on their hydro projects now would it?

surely there is a lot more water vapour coming off the earth's oceans than the rice paddies.

methane is more destructive than CO2, but less of it is produced.

which glaciers are growing?

Peter P Says:
Glad I didn’t do any shorting. The market roaring today.

Something does not smell right. Expect a surprise soon.

I assume it's held to be OK to invest and speculate in stocks, because they are intangibles and discretionary items, but not OK for investors to turn their attention to property as a wealth creation vehicle because it is human shelter, i.e. that the concept of owner-occupied property should trump the concept of residential property as an investment class?

No doubt JMK said that with great irony, while more or less agreeing with the basic premise.

I don't think he did.

I have read that the essential difference about Americans is that we succeed despite our gov't. Therefore, for the most part, it doesn't matter which set of hacks we have in there.

Europeans look toward their gov't to manage things.

I don't know if it's true, but it rings true.

I don’t know if it’s true, but it rings true.

like many things that ring true at first, i think that oversimplifies things. and comes from a funny place, like libertarianism or something

oscar wilde was gay also

John Maynard Keynes may have been the ultimate anti-Monetarist, but he was still a capitalist. And a pretty good one at that.

'a pretty good capitalist'? how so? he was an economist, commenting on a capitalist system

here are some quotes from the vilely gay oscar wilde. naturally, anyone who is straight, such as schmend rick, will always contribute far more to society than someone who is gay, so i don't know why anyone even paid attention to oscar wilde - presumably he is just useful as some sort of moral example of utter wrongness. schmend rick will follow up with links to his own set of highly superior and thoughtful plays and witticisms which enrich all our lives.

A man can be happy with any woman as long as he does not love her.

Always forgive your enemies; nothing annoys them so much.

America is the only country that went from barbarism to decadence without civilization in between.

America had often been discovered before Columbus, but it had always been hushed up.

Anyone who lives within their means suffers from a lack of imagination.

Arguments are to be avoided; they are always vulgar and often convincing.

Biography lends to death a new terror.

Fashion is a form of ugliness so intolerable that we have to alter it every six months.

I always like to know everything about my new friends, and nothing about my old ones.

Consistency is the last refuge of the unimaginative.

I am not young enough to know everything.

If you want to tell people the truth, make them laugh, otherwise they'll kill you.

Illusion is the first of all pleasures.

It is a very sad thing that nowadays there is so little useless information.

One should always play fairly when one has the winning cards.

no, i'm not, actually... it would be the worse for you if i were, heh

>>does gathering facts improve our life?

Facts for facts sake? That's trivia. It can be a good hobby, and a hobby can improve your life.

I just watched a children’s educational presentation on Global Climate Change. They trotted out the Mann “Hockey Stick” graph. You know, the one that shows no Medieval Warming Period. The nice facilitator might as well have been wearing a Brownshirt.

so true. we'll just have to wait and see... wish england would get warmer soon...

So much bad science! Don’t you know the real truth? Global warming is caused by the steady decline in the number of pirates in the world. Look at the data. The correlation is very strong on this – stronger than the facts supporting any other theory!

Here is a link for this and other great knowledge about our universe and its creator: http://www.venganza.org/

the latter. assuming you're collectiong at all...

Imagine growing a wide range of crops in Siberia, and further north in Canada. Throughout history the prosperity of mankind and advancement of civilization has been positively correlated with world temperatures. Global warming, while disruptive if too fast, should bring another episode of such prosperity.

could happen...

>>maybe our economy is going to collapse because the whole country wont stop blogging.

Smartest thing said today.

>>maybe our economy is going to collapse because the whole country wont stop blogging.

Smartest thing said today.

yes, but it's a bit self-referential and recursive...

Sure the ocean effects overwhelm the paddy emissions.

what does irish flatulence have to do with it? surely they're no worse than any other country...

Different Sean Said:
‘a pretty good capitalist’? how so? he was an economist, commenting on a capitalist system

John Maynard Keynes: The Economist As Savior 1920-1937 : A Biography
by Robert Skidelsky

His net worth was over ₤500,000 in 1936, or more than ₤13 million at current values (p. 524). Keynes achieved similar success (and failures) for his friends and for King's. Skidelsky succeeds in bringing out the relationship between Keynes' pursuit of wealth and his pursuit for good life in a clear manner and in captivating detail.

And...

The Concise Encyclopedia of Economics
Biography of John Maynard Keynes (1883-1946)

"...Contrary to some of his critics' assertions, Keynes was a relatively strong advocate of free markets. It was Keynes, not Adam Smith, who said "there is no objection to be raised against the classical analysis of the manner in which private self-interest will determine what in particular is produced, in what proportions the factors of production will be combined to produce it, and how the value of the final product will be distributed between them." Keynes believed that once full employment was achieved by fiscal policy measures, the market mechanism could then operate freely. "Thus," continued Keynes, "apart from the necessity of central controls to bring about an adjustment between the propensity to consume and the inducement to invest, there is no more reason to socialize economic life than there was before.""

touché, brer rabbit. no time to argue, too busy improving the economy, and anyway it would be churlish.

as oscar wilde said:

Arguments are to be avoided; they are always vulgar and often convincing.

Biography lends to death a new terror.

Consistency is the last refuge of the unimaginative.

Natural GHGs = life sustaining blanket of atmosphere.
Anthropogenic GHGs = uniquely important in destroying the environment.

that's silly. you're burning huge amounts of fossil fuel that were formerly locked in the ground, producing particularly CO, CO2 and methane, which has gone up enormously in global atmospheric concentration since pre-industrial times. not to mention CFCs and ozone. i suppose if your engine runs out of oil and water you should keep driving it for another 100 miles since it seems to be idling OK now. still, all we can do now is sit back and see what happens in the next decade or two -- i personally won't be buying any beachfront or low lying property...

alien Says:

rates go up…

markets rise…

dollar falls?

?????

_____

Hmm...

Rates go up, market rises.
Market rises, gold rises.
Gold rises, my wealth rises.
My wealth rises, my health rises.
My health rises, my lurkey rises.
My lurkey rises, my wife rises...to the occasion.
My wife rises to the occasion, oceans rise.
Oceans rise, and the sun rises too.
The sun rises, the roosters rise.
The roosters rise, the roosters cry,
Michael Holliday rises and shines.
Michael Holliday rises and shines
and the whole world is happy!

Yay!

Yawn...sorry, it's only 6:24 a.m. and I'm still sleepy & can't think straight.
Give me some coffee, damn it!

Has the BA bubbly housing market collapsed into dishwater yet?

HARM,

"here's a lovely chart"

Calculated Risk puts out some amazing stuff. Thank you for bringing this to our attention! Talk about flipping a switch. GDP without MEW after 2000 absolutely falls off a cliff! This caliber of data is what prompted my comment to Randy H about having 89 different choices of fake hardwood flooring! Where's the benefit? And you're right, everyone from DL to the guy working in the fake hardwood flooring dept. at Home Despot is going to feel the burn.

Just a quick aside, my former neighbor custom built his 2,000 + sq. ft. home in OCT 2005. He told us he had about 300K into it, (his wife who stood slightly behind him was shaking her head with a doubtful smirk as in "try higher"). Just on Tuesday we drove past THREE homes a few blocks away (equally nice if not nicer) for 275 to 300K! TURNKEY! No "sweat equity" no sweat period! I can't wait to see what Labor Day and beyond brings!

I've got a feeling "Mr. Smarmy" failed to include the considerable expense of LANDSCAPING in his "estimate". These new homes are beautifully and completely landscaped with rather spendy decorative (and professionally done, not Mr. DIY) extensive block retaining walls. Graded, leveled, sodded and seeded, barkdust applied, walkways and sidewalks, decks and exterior lighting. All of which I "estimate" Mr. Smarmy will have completed by 2009.

Graded, leveled, sodded and seeded, barkdust applied, walkways and sidewalks, decks and exterior lighting. All of which I “estimate” Mr. Smarmy will have completed by 2009.

Just in time for Mr. & Mrs. HARM to take it off his hands for about .50 on the dollar (infl. adjusted). The next time you see him, please take a moment to thank him for all the 'free' upgrades and maintenance on my future home.

HARM,

Oh I will! There was a time when "landscaping" meant leveling the ground and casting grass seed by hand. Now it's like 20K at a minimum, and that assumes $7.50 per hour labor! God forbid you can't pick up your crew at Home Despot. I don't mean to pick on this particular "Mr. Smarmy" b/c there are so many. This poor couple (true believers) just so happen to have been my former neighbors. As FB's they are truly not alone.

Back to Fed talk: Clearly most of the MSM spin has been along the lines of, "thank goodness, it looks like the Fed is hinting that they may pause in the rate raises next time." However, the Mercury News' spin on it cracked the hell out of me:

http://www.mercurynews.com/mld/mercurynews/business/14937455.htm

Title: "More Mortgage Pain Coming"

Choice FB quote:

Dawn Ruiz, who's currently trying to sell a house in Merced, said she has a home equity line on which she's been making interest-only payments, but she hasn't been watching the interest rate closely.

"I don't want to know,'' she said.

New thread: Global warming and the housing bubble

Dawn Ruiz, who’s currently trying to sell a house in Merced, said she has a home equity line on which she’s been making interest-only payments, but she hasn’t been watching the interest rate closely.

“I don’t want to know,'’ she said.

I truly hope people like Dawn lose everything, house,car, get divorced, everything. Fuck you, you fucking fucked borrower.