patrick.net

Are our weather patterns going to change dramatically? And if so, what can we do, or what should we do about it?

I afraid so. I doubt anything can be done realistically. Nature has a mind of its own. We should embrace the changes.

Peter P,

I agree. My main beef is that the politicization of the issue has caused us to link "the theory of global warming" with "the evidence of progressive climate change". Theories are important, and will play a role in understanding science that will help us deal with it. But evidence should drive our policy, not theory.

The problem is that no one is really able to debate and refine the evidence because every bit of data gets instantly wrapped up in a polarizing political scrap.

I was only half joking about the asteroid scenario. Unlike the movies about such an event, I really would expect that no one would do anything until it was probably too late, mainly because it would cost so much money that partisans would be arguing that the data was wrong and the asteroid would miss us, or wouldn't damage us, etc. That would cause the other side to start spreading fear and gloom to stoke up support. All the while the clock would keep ticking.

Unlike the movies about such an event, I really would expect that no one would do anything until it was probably too late, mainly because it would cost so much money that partisans would be arguing that the data was wrong and the asteroid would miss us, or wouldn’t damage us, etc. That would cause the other side to start spreading fear and gloom to stoke up support. All the while the clock would keep ticking.

Randy, there is not much we can do about a large, earth-bound asteroid. If we we find out soon enough, we can at most save a small group of people.

I afraid so. I doubt anything can be done realistically. Nature has a mind of its own. We should embrace the changes.

Lol. I can hear that argument now were a mile-wide asteroid is tumbling towards us with 95% certainty.

Randy, there is not much we can do about a large, earth-bound asteroid. If we we find out soon enough, we can at most save a small group of people.

So we obviously shouldn't try? We can, in fact, do quite a bit if detected early enough and responded to early enough. It would require decisive action, though. Which, judging from this discussion, is an impossibility.

So, I retract me statement. There isn't much we would do about it.

So we obviously shouldn’t try? We can, in fact, do quite a bit if detected early enough and responded to early enough. It would require decisive action, though. Which, judging from this discussion, is an impossibility.

You have a point. We should probably try.

It's a bubble inside a balloon surrounded by a Zeppelin filled wit hydrogen gas.

Bap talks straight.

Gore better than GWB better than Clinton

because
Gore went to Nam (alleged to avoid combat zones, though)
GWB served in air national guard and knew how to fly a jet
Clinton fled abroad and learnt how to smoke pot without inhaling

But all of them suck because they never saw combat when their fellow men were dying.

Having gotten a Ph.D. myself from a top Ivy school and seeing what kind of trainining people went through, I wouldn't place too much confidence in the opinions of Climatologists, Gynocologists, Economists, blah blah blah. Brainy people are not necessarily intellectual. These days it is very, very difficult for a Ph.D. person to have broad and substantial understanding in his/her field. (I happened to be of the rare breed, hence was sought after upon my graduation. But I am better than most educated people anyway. It's not me, it's a God-given gift.) Most people are so narrowly focused that they should not be able to form a coherent and informed opinion regarding such a gigantic issue as global warming. Intellectual giants do exist. But there are very few in this world. When I see one, I would recognize. I haven't met any. Those 2500 international climatologists are just like ordinary people, except that they have gone through years of training (with low pay). I wouldn't place too much confidence in either camp of scientists.

Nobody knows for sure what causes current spat of global warming.

Bap, I absolutely agree. 3 years might be too long. I haven't gone through one. So I don't know how long the service should be. 2 years is a minimum.

It probably shouldn't be mandatory. If it is, we are becoming a fascist or communist state. However, proper social and financial incentives could be introduced to entice aspiring real men to serve. Sissies could also be turned into real men if they choose to serve. A major social incentive is to give higher status to the military people than they receive now. This will not make the military more arrogant and menacing to the society, as the young people who go through the service eventually come back to the civilian socity. There will be a bond between the civilian society and the military.

you're all drunk...

is the rain forest that has burned for the last 17 years the amazon basin? those are fires set by clear fellers clearing land for farming, they are not natural. bush fires are kept to a minimum here by doing selective strip burning, mainly in the interests of protecting property. eucalypts have actually evolved to regenerate after a bush fire also, they are not destroyed. the trunks remain standing and alive, and new leaf growth comes out shortly afterwards.

however, i don't find the arguments about the black death and wood as fuel convincing, it doesn't seem to map to population densities, fuel types and use and the 'mini ice age' of the last few centuries at all... serious release of CO2 by man has really only occurred since the advent of the industrial revolution, particularly using coal and oil as fuel. i think the medieval warming evidence is due to natural cyclic fluctuations. we just don't know what's causing any possible warming, and whether it is going to be a positive feedback loop or just plateau at a slightly warmer point.

it could become a catastrophe with major crop failure due to sudden temperature increases which the traditional plant forms won't be able to tolerate. you could be growing bananas in nebraska...

i'm still not going to buy any beachfront property at sea level...

definitely drunk...

0.8%? -- what about the output of coal-burning power stations? vehicles... industry...

where does the other 99.2% come from? breathing.. decomposition... forest fires...

Different Sean wrote:

> i’m still not going to buy any beachfront property at sea level…

I was just thinking that since the only science training most left wingers had was in Jr. HS we should join them in supporting the doom and gloom “global warming problem”. Since most liberals live in costal “blue states” we can get them to sell their costal real estate at bargain prices and head for the hills. Next time I hear a liberal say “Each HUMMER sold puts 10 tons of greenhouse gasses in to the air per year and helps to raise sea level” I’ll respond with “I heard it is a MILLION tons of gasses and did you hear that the homes on Lido Island in Newport are starting to flood at high tide, it’s only a matter of time before Sea Cliff here in SF is under water”…

P.S. Good article below that supports global warming put points out that it is not as bad as most liberals think. With sea levels rising by an average of .05mm per year it will be over 500 years before they are a full inch higher…

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1635077/posts

You guys still think there’s a bubble? Did you not see DQNEWS.com? New record high.

Congrats to Bay Area homeowners. But do you think global warming is real? :)

San Francisco, only the 34th most expensive city in the world.

We had this discussion last year. They used rent for comparison.

Rent is still cheap. It is going up though.

I never liked BA and the attendant lib parasites. My only worry: These parasites will migrate en masse to other Pacific Northwest states and ruin our lives. Shotguns, guys. We know the libs can’t shoot straight.

Careful, with comments like this you just might find yourself spooning a large 1/2 mexi man.

SR, fair enough. I was going to say Intel did some good things.

S.X.,

Did I say Kalifornikers? No. I said BA libs, which ruled out Mexicans. Period. Did you know that Mexicans in Kalifornia vote overwhelming republican? 1/2 Mex? I don't know. You be the judge.

Peter P,

The road trip was good. I wish I took a pair of Tevas along and hiked more slot canyons. Let me know if you want to see pictures.

To be fair, republicans aren't conservatives, either. In Amerika, center right is probably the best position.

S.R.,

That's what the Dems did in 2004. They came up with substantial policy proposals that benefitted the working classes in places like Ohio. Didn't matter.

Ditto you. I'm with the Dems because at least many of them are teachable. They may not have all the facts straights, but many of them are willing to listen to a better reasoned argument when it is presented. Anyone who is still supporting Bush after 6 years is not teachable.

I heard Bush is a gay.

Are dare gays on dees bord?

I am not against gays. I actually can see why some turn gay. Not sympathetic. But not anti-gay either.

I think a lot of gaymen are very masculine, or at least appear so. They'll make good warriors.

Happy Canada Day, or Dominion Day, by the way...

...:p

The good thing is, if a Democrat is elected President, or they get control of either house of Congress, the right wing media commentators and voters will of course look back to the previous governments, you know, at least 4-5 years or so, whenever looking to assign blame for current problems or policies.

I'm sure the Dems are looking forward to such a free pass, if they win the next set of elections....

Last time I checked, your governor was a Republican...

Come to think of it, wasn't Reagan the Governor of California, in the last 30 years? I believe he was...

Bap33,

Your answer is honest, and a bit existential for a devout like yourself. Pretty much every event in one's life has a degree of luck/randomness/fate/destiny/karma/retribution (depending upon your belief system) to it. I don't think in black & white terms. Every circumstance has to be taken as it comes. I am very much a utilitarian, which is why I am interested in gathering data so that I can analyze situations myself, or at least verify/debunk others' analyses.

I don't know if the impact of human activity is relevant, and I don't trust the biased analyses from either camp, because they are both politically motivated. I find it depressing that each side makes the allegation that the other is using junk science, then proffers an equally junkish theory. To deny that net carbon is being to released into the carbon cycle by human activity is junk science. And it's an unnecessary position for the anti-global-warming-agenda camp to take.

As to the other stuff...it's too hyperbolic for me. I don't go for incongruent comparisons. Let the debate be about the debate, not "but it's like this or that".

if an astrid were detected heading towards Earth????

I am not against gays. I actually can see why some turn gay. Not sympathetic. But not anti-gay either.

there are theories of incorrect shots of hormones which cause pre-natal sexual differentiation of the brain (hypothalamus, etc) causing same-sex attraction and opposite sex behaviours, e.g. see milton diamond's postulated 4 stages of CNS PNSD.

http://staff.um.edu.mt/mbor7/s_lect05.htm

quite a lot of sheep turn out to be gay, so it's hardly 'turning' or a 'lifestyle choice'...

i question the 0.8% figure in terms of man's net contribution to greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. that appears to be a distortion of the percentages reported in the carbon cycle, where the oceans both absorb and release huge quantities of CO2, acting basically like a giant bottle of Coke. and remember that new CO2 is being added by man at whatever actual rate every year -- the other figures of decomposition etc adding carbon gases to the air represent a sort of natural equilibrium. some of it can be reabsorbed by planting carbon sinks like trees, but man's tendency has been towards land clearing. (especially the supposedly natural 'forest fires' in the amazon basin -- the 'lungs of the earth'). but if the oceans literally start to heat up on an averaged basis, then it's possible that they will release more CO2 back into the atmosphere than they absorb, which in turn causes more heating, which would be the 'tipping point' feared by some climatologists of a positive feedback loop of climate change. in the world of atmospheric chemistry, who's to say that adding even a relatively small amount of an active agent won't cause big effects?

i would point out that more than a few medicinal compounds HAVE been discovered in rainforests and temperate forests. many present-day drugs have been discovered from plant studies, and are still manufactured and extracted from plants. there is still the possibility of discovering more antibiotics, anti-virals and anti-fungals from plant defences, not to mention other wellbeing drugs. destroying them all to grow monocultures for hardwood floors is probably not a good step forward; i would call it acting in unenlightened self-interest. i would point out that California leads the way in the cultivation of 'medicinal mushrooms' which is a major export industry for the state.

Seamus and Pa' were walking in the woods when they came across a sign saying, "Tree Fellers wanted". One of them said, "Ye know, it's a shame Michael isn't here. We could have gotten the job".

Little Fascist Says:

"...Sterilize teenage girls after one baby, and don’t forget the boys."

Oh, we won't forget the boys my little fascist.

As a matter of fact, we'll start with you. Marge, get out the Ginsu kitchen knife, we've got some nuggets to defangle.

FAB said:
I was just thinking that since the only science training most left wingers had was in Jr. HS we should join them in supporting the doom and gloom “global warming problem”.

i did sciences in senior HS, and won the yr 12 physics and computing prizes. i completed a combined science and engineering degree with studies in computing, electronics, physics, chemistry, human biology and math. i went on to do a second degree in social sciences in psych, soc, anthropology and political science with a smattering of philosophy. (which is why i haven't individually saved enough for a housing deposit in boom conditions.) i haven't done much earth science, i have to admit, which is why i have to sift through the global warming evidence carefully, when i can be bothered. however, i suppose i would be characterised as 'liberal' under the american rubric, although i just tend to see myself as thoughtful, analytical, humanitarian, and disliking political or social manipulation of others for personal gain, excessive inequality, and social agendas not grounded in reason and respect for human rights.

moderately good news from the land of oz, although it depends on an interest rate rise to really cruel the market. a price plateau is not the same as a massive correction, unfortunately, in terms of reinstating a decent social settlement... usual angst and spin doctoring from the RE hucksters on the figures, of course...

Rate rise chance cools already shaky market

THE spectre of an interest rate rise on Tuesday may have had an impact on Sydney's already gloomy property market yesterday.

The Saturday auction clearance rate plummeted, falling 13.5 percentage points in a week. Of the 185 properties scheduled to go under the hammer, 80 sold and 24 were withdrawn. The 43.2 per cent clearance compared with 56.7 per cent a week earlier.

And if the Reserve Bank Board decides on Tuesday to lift rates, experts predict house prices - as well as auction clearance rates - will suffer further. Australian Property Monitors research director Louis Christopher said clearance rates were already struggling following the May rate rise, and were down compared with the same time last year.

http://tinyurl.com/pguv3

let's say we'll pay him to develop a full php web forum with member profiles, proper search features, dedicated static areas for the glossary, etc, AND keep up the links. patrick will get some serious marketable skills and immense satisfaction in a job well done. now we're on to something.

sorry about the irish joke earlier, pa :(