patrick.net

I remember visiting Carmel in 2002 while my spouse was commuting to the Bay Area from Portland during those ugly days of the tech bust. We went to an open house, nice home about 1800 square feet, about 8 blocks from the beach, nicely remodeled and had a price tag of ONLY $1.5 million. And the were many folks seriously inquiring. We about fell over then.

This piques my interest, thanks for the link.

Even Carmel saw inflated prices during the boom. Back in mid 90s you would have seen prices much much lower and compatible with SCC prices. Just like the rest of the BA it too was infected by dot.com stock option cash outs. Needless to say many are still pricing homes for the same reason, a return to 1999 days. But as usual the sellers are grossly discounted from reality. The agents are even worst as many are from SoCal.

Carmel is full of very weird, very rich, people.

When Fort Ord closed, Carmel never skipped a beat because it is tourist based.

When tourists go broke, it seems to effect Carmel. lol

Carmel by the Sea
P. G. by the Fog

I first noticed it (and posted about it) over the summer on a trip to the 17mile drive. It was pretty alarming to see all those for sale signs in the "Fortress of Fortresses". I wondered how many Madoff clients lived in the area

Loved that town when I was growing up and visiting in the summers.

"I first noticed it (and posted about it) over the summer on a trip to the 17mile drive. It was pretty alarming to see all those for sale signs in the “Fortress of Fortresses”. I wondered how many Madoff clients lived in the area"

90% of the people are working stiffs. Prices prior to the bubble were not that high. The income levels are extremely thin to support high prices. Its not Bel Air or Beverly Hills.

I can't imagine tourists supporting a community like Carmel. What the heck do tourists buy there anyway...food, art, coffee, expensive sweaters for the dog? Who can afford a million dollar home plus HUGE taxes. Where do those folks work/commute?

Sea shells... Aside from tourism its agriculture which carries very little in profit margins.
Its just a cheap get away for locals in the Bay Area, but hardly any large crowds.

It was the one time home of Garry Kildall, the original creator of PC operating systems,
and could have been what Bill Gates/Microsoft is today. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gary_Kildall
But that certainly didnt happen.

It's a nice, quaint town to visit, but at some point in the mid-90s I started noticing a ton of remodelling going on. That's great for the individual homeowner, but it just made it seem like everyone was even more on top of each other than they already were. There's that odd "If I won the lottery" thought about living there, but if you did live there, what the hell would you do all day? Where would you get your groceries? Where would you do anything but buy art and eat at expensive restaurants? I guess if I bought a home there, I'd rent it out by the week or season. As charming as the town is, it's pretty much only for a short time. Long term stays would probably get boring fast.

Lived and worked in Monterey Bay circa '87 to '94, here's what I seen as tourism .. the Mission gets pretty busy. Weddings almost every day and their receptions. Downtown shops. Folks staying at Highlands or Big Sir use Carmel's Clocktower Plaza as a refuel point. Beach. Del Monte Forest and Skyline Forest walking/hiking paths. Rancho Canada golf course.
Bully Three had good eats. Hog's Breath didn't, but Clint owned it. Best eats were at the Clocktower @ Sherlock Holmes. Awesome english food.

My basic benchmark for visible distress is three for sale signs close enough that you can capture them in one photo. You know sellers don't want to be pointing out that the neighborhood prices are in trouble, but if they're all advertising openly next to each other, trouble it is. For them.

One for sale sign: normal
Two for sale signs together: a bit odd
Three for sale signs together: market definitely falling

Please upload any such photos with the "Upload Image" button below, or email them to me.

Carmel must be #1 dog-ownership town. Almost every one I ran into were walking their dogs. And restaurants have signs saying 'dog friendly'.
I guess if you are a rich stiff living in Carmel, you'd need a dog to keep company.

I get a chuckle when I hear 'Carmel is an Artistic Bohemian town'. sure if by bohemian you mean 'rich retirees with Jaguars' :-)

I saw a small beachfront (on the beach frontage road) house for sale in Carmel not long ago. It was only 7M.
Not sure if a dog is included.

justme says

I saw a small beachfront (on the beach frontage road) house for sale in Carmel not long ago. It was only 7M.
Not sure if a dog is included.

At least a handsome pool boy for that money!

Carmel must be #1 dog-ownership town. Almost every one I ran into were walking their dogs.

I was in Laguna Beach this weekend and we noticed the same phenomenon. All exotic dog breeds, too.

Carmel is served by Monterey for the general commercial stuff. It is a place for owners, not worker bees, and as such I don't see it becoming terribly distressed, thanks to Prop 13 valuations on the bulk of the land making any property easy to cash-flow provided it wasn't acquired recently.

Wouldn't a place like Carmel have strict rental rules, like minimum 2 weeks, etc? In know our 'posh' Cannon Beach, Oregon is very strict in number of rentals and how often it can be rented, min every 2 weeks.

Oregon is very strict in number of rentals and how often it can be rented, min every 2 weeks.

Looking at a property mgmt site, the minimum might be 30 days. If you're carrying a pre-dotcom valuation, one month a year will easily cover the carrying cost. I don't know why anyone would unload a property in Carmel.

"bulk of the land making any property easy to cash-flow provided it wasn’t acquired recently"

Until someone makes a better beach community somewhere else as was the case with Laguna Beach vs Malibu.
For now we also have plenty of land near Half Moon Bay!

I live in the Monterey area and am about 10 minutes from Carmel. It's true, lots of for sale signs.

However, Pebble Beach is worse. You would never know it from the road (since you have to get through a gate/guard) but once past, the place is littered with property for sale.

The high end market definitely has a long way to go - and while it comes down, it will only push the lower end lower.

I'll take some pictures next week if I get a chance and load them up for you guys.

I think of both Carmel & Cannon Beach as toast...so beautiful they got wrecked and are now insipid...floating in bad albeit costly art.

When the Salinas crowd moves back to Salinas, and Seaside looks like more like it used to, then Carmel will be ok.