patrick.net

Enroute to LV got some bad "dope" and took 99E south of Sacramento. In short, a freaking NIGHTMARE! One speed trap after the other and unrelenting traffic. Not fun. When I get caught up I'll be "talking" to my friend!

LV (I'm only too happy to report) is in an undeniable state of collapse! Locals point out all of the "unfinished" projects that are obviously languishing under the desert sun. (Who needs to add to an already busting at the seams inventory?) So you see basically abandoned job sites or maybe two guys "working" on a 400 unit condo complex? Must be pretty good workers! Visited friends in Sun City Anthem (Henderson) and even though they talked their way down to 300K from 350K they admit they STILL probably overpaid. Gas prices are being blamed for a "quiet" 4th of July (by LV standards anyway) but I suspect it's as much the impact from the end of the line for house ATM withdrawls?

Bend, OR (sorry Michael Anderson) is a freaking mess. We would have been home 45 minutes earlier had we went around it! These are things though that can only learned from "on site intel" (not at 40,000 feet)! The whole place is a construction zone. Equity locusts indeed!

SQT,

That is good stuff!

Living the American (banker's) dream! LOL!

Hey, uh didn't mean to get down on SAC but we're used to taking I-5 and 99E seemed to hit one town after another! I can't remember them all but we planned on being in Mojave (one of my favorite stop overs) and barely made it to Madera befor throwing in the towel completely exhausted. The traffic (and cops) just don't let up!

-befor
+before

Anyway, we were totally unprepared for all of the on ramp traffic b/c it just didn't look THAT bad on a map! Let's recap:

Elk Grove
Galt
Lodi
Stockton
Manteca
Ripon?
Salida
Modesto
Ceres
Turlock
Livingston
Merced
Chowchilla
Madera

This doesn't even take into account ALL of the towns south of Fresno! What's odd (to Oregonians anyway) is that in the same stretch on I-5 there's well, uh basically NOTHING! Don't take it the wrong way but it was a mistake I'm not eager to repeat. Oh and Mrs. DinOR "forgot" her driver's license which she of course didn't realize until it was her turn at the first gas stop after SAC! Forgot indeed!

We were sooooo determined not to take I-5 back we drove through 400+ miles of desert, spent the afternoon/night in Reno which btw earned a spot on my "list of places to avoid" BUT had a great breakfast in all places "Likely" California and pleasant visit in Alturas which was very nice as well!

I kept insisting that not having your driver's license "on you" is not the same as "not having a license"! But........ she wasn't willing to "risk it" and said I was doing just fine! Seriously we saw sooooo many people pulled over it wasn't funny. On 95 in NV we saw ONE highway patrol car in a 400 mile stretch.

Much has been said about how much gambling subsidizes the roads in NV but I thought Oregonians had it bad! It's so obvious the minute you roll out of Reno and come back on 395 into CA! NV has plenty of "desert and weeds" but the roads are great! I don't know where CA spends the money but even I-5 through Shasta and Weed were really rough. Lots of deep ruts and pot holes along with much "road noise" and litter. Using 101 makes for great scenery but we didn't think it was too practical. Is that in better shape?

Glen Says: "Hmm… maybe I should have said a viable political party… "

Ahh yes, no one can be "viable" except our beloved Republicans and Democrats. And being starstruck groupies for these hacks has gotten us where, exactly?

SQT,

THAT's what I told her! Besides I was sitting right next to her. Hello? I could see a cop raising his eyebrows if your husband (who is passed out) in the backseat says "Oh yeah, she's got a license" but c'mon.

Oh and just to prove her point the MINUTE we got in she called me over to show me it was exactly where she said it was! I was too tired to argue. In the end I work at home and she commutes EVERY day so I guess she figured if she had to drive it wouldn't be a vacation!

I would be curious though to hear what 101 looks like b/c most Oregonians are pretty familiar with it from Astoria to Bandon but then switch over to I-5 as soon as they hit the CA state line. Why, I have no idea.

pdx_renter,

I only take a vacation every couple of years so it IS a big deal to me but if you like for a nominal contribution patrick will e-mail you all of the articles you could ever want or need. Personally, all of the research was done in 2003/4/5 so all that is left for me to do is to sit back and watch. Ben Jones does a great job keeping everyone "on task" but I consider my travels through the "epicenter" of the bubble fairly valuable "on site intel" b/c you get to see abandoned sub divisions first hand! I live in the PDX area and yes, (we're in a bubble too)!

Red Whine said:
Ahh yes, no one can be “viable” except our beloved Republicans and Democrats. And being starstruck groupies for these hacks has gotten us where, exactly?

I don't see how being a starstruck groupie for an "also ran" helps much either... Having a libertarian "party" almost seems like a contradiction in terms. I guess instead of pining for better parties, I should probably just support liberal policies, wherever they come from. I think George Washington may have been right about political parties.

I've always felt that 101 was more of a "concept" than an actual highway? Many parts through SoCal cut off and become "the main drag" through beach towns with plenty of stop lights and traffic and just when you're ready to give up on it, it becomes a highway again!

@pdx_renter,

I recommend Googling the following:

"Housing bubble sites other than Patrick.net with free links available and blogs that don't consistently diverge from useful info about housing"

Good luck with that, Kemosabe! :twisted:

To be honest there have been times in the past when some of the OT discussions could be frustrating to me too but when we passed over into 2006 (where realtors are very much "on the ropes") I just don't have the same sense of urgency that I used to have. Don't get me wrong, it's not that I'm enjoying things any less! Quite to the contrary. I'm researching less and enjoying it more! When we were still at the "is there, or isn't there a bubble" stage I read everything I could get my hands on. Now? It's like draining the oil out a car and seeing how far down the road it can make it. No one's actually expecting it to get all that far (and it's not like things will get any better!)

Glen,

I agree that people should support good policies and good candidates wherever they come from and not just blindly vote along the "party line". Even so, isn't it a little odd that in some 150 years there has never been a serious challenge to our current brain-dead, corrupt 2-party duolopoly? Is this really a sign of a healthy, well functioning (and quasi-democratic) political process?

I just don't get people who constantly vote for the "lesser evil" because it's "viable". Most of the time the lesser a$$hole loses anyway (witness Democrats' recent "success" at poorly emulating Republicans). Even worse, this mindset becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy and a Catch-22: Libertarians, Greens, etc. cannot win major offices because no one will vote for them; no one will vote for them because they believe they cannot win major offices.

HARM,

Sorry I missed the 4th of July party and the free surf lessons but I was:

"Driving through Bakersfield EARLY Sunday morning"*

On my way to see what I can only describe as the perfect example of "boomertopia" Sun City Anthem in Henderson, NV has everything boomers could want! The "clubhouse" is bigger than a Dept. of Defense building with state of the art work out equipt. and all kinds of "activities" like gardening and quilting along with of course plenty of golf! The only thing I kept wondering was why can't these people find some dive bar and drink themselves to death like my dad did? Hey! It was good enough for him? Really, do we truly need ALL of these "amenities"? Couldn't this money be spent better elsewhere?

*The Girl with Far Away Eyes, Rolling Stones circa 1978?

SQT, try <u>underline</u>

Yeah, guess it's not working anymore. Odd that.

I tried this:

http://www.google.ca/search?hl=en&q=Housing+bubble+sites+other+than+Patrick.net+with+free+links+available+and+blogs+that+don%E2%80%99t+consistently+diverge+from+useful+info+about+housing&btnG=Google+Search&meta=

de nada

♠ ♣ ♥ ♦

Are you guys playing a new poker game?

â™  â™  â™  â™ 

What are you guys going to have for lunch?

Peter, do you know why the underline text tag doesn’t work?

I tried before and somehow underline did not work.

How did HARM get it to work here?

http://patrick.net/wp/?p=259#comment-83995

Perhaps because underlines look too much like links and WordPress does not like deceptions. :)

underline
-----------

Got it to work ;)

DinOR Says:

Personally, all of the research was done in 2003/4/5 so all that is left for me to do is to sit back and watch. Ben Jones does a great job keeping everyone “on task” but I consider my travels through the “epicenter” of the bubble fairly valuable “on site intel” b/c you get to see abandoned sub divisions first hand! I live in the PDX area and yes, (we’re in a bubble too)!

Did you have a chance to read the link I posted on this thread? The Mercury News had a bold-type, screaming front page headline that it's a buyer's market in the Central Valley. (btw, it's not really yet). Interesting to hear about your observations. I like the idea of now taking the tack of sitting back and watching this whole mess play out.

The central valley has only begun to see the beginnings of a “buyers market.” I think the realtors® are calling it a buyers market to scare the last holdouts into buying before “it goes up again.”

Never a better time to buy, right? ;)

http://marinrealestatebubble.blogspot.com/2006/06/where-are-we.html

This morning on KFOG, I heard a radio spot for KB Homes - did anyone else hear it? Haven't come across such an ad on mainstream FM radio before. To paraphrase:

A "young couple" needs to move out of their condo w/ new babies, etc. so they go to a KB development. Because of rumors of a buyer's market, they decide to "take the plunge" and buy. The KB agent gives them a great mtg rate beating the rising mtg rates, incentives, and gets them a great home at a great deal.

Sounded very desperate to me.

Because of rumors of a buyer’s market, they decide to “take the plunge” and buy.

Well, if they can afford it, why not? A home-purchase is more than a financial decision. They better be prepared to be in for a wild ride.

skibum,

I will check out your link!

Mrs. DinOR came up with a name for all of the sub divisions we saw coming down 99E. "Roof Farms" b/c it's all you can see for miles like so many rows of corn! And built so close to the freeway? We then started the debate about could a squirrel go from SAC to Fresno without ever touching the ground?

While in LV my client (gun nut) insisted we "go out to the desert" to make some noise! Well, uh O.K. I'm figuring "hell's half acre" here and we get just past the South Coast and he pulls over and we begin to bake. I'm not complaining mind you, the guy has money and in a twisted way I kind of like the heat. Perhaps something only an Oregonian can appreciate. So were a blastin' away and I ask about all of these "frame only" shells we see all around us and he explains that some days a construction "big wig" comes out to the job site with a clipboard and walks around but assures me many have been in the same state for almost a year. I guess I'd have to say they are "pre-abandoned"? It looks to me that financing has dried up and there they'll sit until they manage to work through the inventory. Many of the billboards (NO, not "those" billboards) tout condos' in the mid 100's!

We then started the debate about could a squirrel go from SAC to Fresno without ever touching the ground?

If squirrels are not all starved to death because house-buyers are no longer feeding them.

DinOR,

I love the "Roof Farms" - it may deserve consideration for the hosing bubble dictionary. The observation of an increasing number of abandoned construction projects seems to be happening much earlier in the cycle than I would have thought. Someone posted earlier about all the abandoned sites in LV, I've read about a few in Boston, too. I would think that with financing secure, land purchased, etc., the financially smart thing to do would be to go ahead and finish the project. I wonder if it's flippers bailing (and probably eating the deposit)?

Just a guess, but a year, year and half ago there wasn't much any where in the LV market avail. for the mid 100's let alone a NEW condo. I emphasize "new" not that it means that much to me but seems to mean everything in LV.

Daughter #1 (and husband to be) just had their offer accepted on a nice older home. About 1,800 sq. ft. w/ all new faux wood floors and much updating for 196K. I can't say I was "sick" about it, after all his folks came up with a sizeable downpayment for for the kids. Who was I to say anything? It had sat for months without an offer and I think they could have got it cheaper but they're happy and I don't see a lot of room for downside other than the opp. cost for the 50K down. Since I didn't write the check it wasn't my turn to talk. I really am trying to be the "perfect" in-law here people!

Peter P,

LOL! Oh you are in rare form today sir!

LOL! Oh you are in rare form today sir!

As opposed to medium-rare?

DinOR,
I don't know the LV market at all, but either way, as long as the usual mantra stays true - they plan to live there a while, they are not financially stretched making a purchase (sounds like it given the in-laws' help), etc. etc. - then sounds okay to me.

BTW, according to:

http://www.benengebreth.org/housingtracker/location/Nevada/LasVegas/

median ASKING price is down in LV from 349K a year ago to 339.5K this week (~2.7%), while inventory is up from 16K to 22K.

skibum,

A couple of months ago I would agonized over just who got stuck with unfinished condos/projects. Not that it's unimportant. It's certainly important to whom ever had to eat it, it's just not important to me! F'd is f'd. I must admit though that I hadn't heard about "derailments" in Boston! And yes, I didn't think this phase would occur so damn early. But in the end this WAS the world's biggest game of musical chairs so as flippers re-invested their "profits" into a bigger better, nicer newer project they and their cash were bound to part company. All that raw lumber just sitting there is ugly and someone here mentioned what will become of all these vacant and un-airconditioned homes after year+ in 120 degree heat? That IS a good question!

skibum,

Oh oh oh, I should have mentioned, the home they are buying is about four blocks from us here in Oregon. The wife and I were just visiting in LV while I did a few client appts. So the kids actually will pay a little over a hundred dollars per sq. ft. but I will say that for all of the updating (much remains to be done). It's just one of those deals where an older home needs a younger couple (and I think I'll leave it at that).

I should have mentioned, the home they are buying is about four blocks from us here in Oregon.

That is great. 2-4 blocks is the optimal distance. :)

So the kids actually will pay a little over a hundred dollars per sq. ft.

I doubt it is possible to get anything built for less than 200/sqft here in the silly valley, land EXcluded.

Whenever Peter P starts in with his food references, I totally lose my focus. On that note: If I was a rich specuvestor, instead of sitting in my cubicle eating a ham sandwich reading patrick.net, I'd be eating at L'Opera in Long Beach, having porcini mushroom & locatelli romano ravioli, with a nice Brunello di Montalcino -- something from the 1999 vintage, perhaps. Or maybe sushi with an Alsatian Gewurztraminer. Mmmmm.