patrick.net

Glen,

PS, I did noticed that DS didn't actually refute your observation at all, he just went into some other tangent. Then said that Hobbes's basic construction was clearly discredited, without bothering to cite who had so clearly discredited it. Also, I didn't really see the Hobbesian spin in your original comment.

My own spin is: If one goes by Collapse, there's a tendency of overcrowded primitive societies to become more rigidly hierarchical and oppressive. I posit that this transformation occurs because scarcity leads to more property crime and the larger social gatherings make the individual members less altruistic to the entire society.

Bap33,

Right on! Oregon I believe is the 2nd or 3rd least "ethnically diverse" state in the Union (after Idaho and Vermont?) and uh, we have PLENTY of predatory lending and toxic loans to go around! But I don't believe this is necessarily a lib/con issue. It's an FB issue. Remember, when it comes to mortgage brokers (and their fees) FB's "know no color".

This is a time for FB's of ALL races, colors and creeds to come together, set aside their racial differences and figure out how to get someone else to help pay for their equity extraction scheme!

Looks like "Boycott housing" made it onto the nightly news last night. Looky here: http://abclocal.go.com/kgo/story?section=assignment_7&id=4356937

In other news, I read in the paper last week that a housing activist group in Pleasanton is thinking of sueing the city over a ban on affordable housing: Here's the link: http://www.publicadvocates.org/

So... it looks like the poltical activism energy might finally have caught on and is now taking the issue of housing on the band wagon. Hopefully, there will be more of this kind of public outcry in the future.

C’mon, the guy’s brought great good to the PC industry. Without him, there probably won’t be a Microsoft, there probably won’t be an affordable PC for everyone and there probably won’t be a Netscape revolution.

bill gates has always lead technically from behind. DOS was taken from CPM (not written by gates), was a pretty hopeless OS, more just a non-reentrant interrupt handler, nowhere near as powerful as Unix or Linux, BASIC had been around since the 60s (he just did a port), and finally he copied the Mac interface some 5 years later and got sued. his main strength was massive sales and clever licensing. it always took to at least version 3 before his products were any good.

while windows 1, 2 and 3 and the mac os were all co-operative multi-taskers with swapping, and windows needed a minimum 80286, there was another GUI product that ran on an XT 8088 with 640K RAM and tiny HDD (slowly), worked well with most hardware, was as easy to use as windows 98 was much later, was a proper preemptive multi-tasker with paging, had advanced user interface features and threaded menus, high quality dot-matrix printing and ease of setup, etc, some of which windows doesn't even do today. all for about $200, including a built-in wordprocessor and spreadsheet. it sank without trace. but a much more 'affordable' solution for a PC and much more user friendly and robust than windoze. a team of programmers had created the technically perfect and cheap OS for much less than M$.

a world without microsoft wouldn't be a bad thing, there could be a lot more choice of products out there, and his practices were often aggressive and predatory. Netscape was an NCSA project, nothing to do with M$.

Another real reason why I defend Gates and other rich people is that because I fucking believe I’m worth at least 10 bil, if not more.

well, we all are, of course...

My thoughts on PCs: I've owned both Mac and PC. I used to be a fervent Mac guy. Apple definantly has a better UI. The problem is A: their computers are damned expensive. B: You cannot easily modify the guts of a mac. They're mostly permenently manufactored. Lastly, there simply isn't the variety of hardware and software available for Macs. A video card for a Mac is at least double of that for a PC. If you go PC, all you have to do is find some ugly metal box- even one thrown away- strip out the guts and buy a bunch of over the counter parts and bingo! Instant computer! I like the fact that you have more options with a PC. I on both and like the PC better, but will admit that my PC is pretty ugly.

Astrid said:

PS, I did noticed that DS didn’t actually refute your observation at all, he just went into some other tangent.

He seems to do this a lot.

My own spin is: If one goes by Collapse, there’s a tendency of overcrowded primitive societies to become more rigidly hierarchical and oppressive. I posit that this transformation occurs because scarcity leads to more property crime and the larger social gatherings make the individual members less altruistic to the entire society.

My "source," for DS's purposes, was also Jared Diamond, filtered through my own understanding of human behavior--I have only read a few chapters of Collapse, but GG&S was excellent and also contained a lucid discussion of the lives of primitive peoples.

DS:
The idea that primitive cultures did not experience scarcity is so absurd it is not even worth discussing. But even if true, it would mean that we could not emulate their purported carefree cooperative lives even if we wanted to. Unless, of course, you mean to suggest that we do not experience scarcity in the modern world. (Which would be an even more absurd claim.)

Perhaps in a primitive culture with unlimited untapped resources, a communitarian ideology could succeed as a method of social organization. Outside of that context, though, communitarian ideologies simply don't work. (Ever heard of the "tragedy of the commons"?)

astrid Says:
PS, I did noticed that DS didn’t actually refute your observation at all, he just went into some other tangent.

oh dear, have i not met your expectations again...

Then said that Hobbes’s basic construction was clearly discredited, without bothering to cite who had so clearly discredited it. Also, I didn’t really see the Hobbesian spin in your original comment.

everyone has discredited it. it's gone the way of the scientific debates about whether worms are generated from the air from the 16th century, which was the big debate of its time. it's like the flat earth has been discredited. it's like the theory of the aether has been discredited, and the plum pudding atom. why i have to reference the bleeding obvious is beyond me. once the anthropological and archaelogical evidence came in, and people started doing more research on simple pre-state societies, hobbes was realised to be conducting a thought experiment. he was operating essentially in pre-colonial and pre-scientific times. bit like the 4,000 year old earth was refuted by geologists, biologists, and physicists all at once -- which geologist was it?

"Earlier notions of abiogenesis, long discarded by science, are now more commonly known as spontaneous generation, held that living organisms are generated by decaying organic substances, e.g. that mice spontaneously appear in stored grain or maggots spontaneously appear in meat."
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/User:Extremophile/Abiogenesis

"Hobbes's view was challenged in the eighteenth century by Jean-Jacques Rousseau, who claimed that Hobbes was taking socialized persons and simply imagining them living outside of the society they were raised in. He affirmed instead that people were born neither good nor bad; men knew neither vice nor virtue since they had almost no dealings with each other. Their bad habits are the products of civilization specifically social hierarchies, property, and markets."

there, rousseau first challenged it, not counting all the anthropologists of the last 200 years who would also challenge it based on all the anthropological and archaelogical evidence, and throwing off the veil of their own culture.

My own spin is: If one goes by Collapse, there’s a tendency of overcrowded primitive societies to become more rigidly hierarchical and oppressive. I posit that this transformation occurs because scarcity leads to more property crime and the larger social gatherings make the individual members less altruistic to the entire society.

which 'primitive' societies, exactly? there is no such thing as property crime in primitive societies which don't possess property. man was pre-horticultural for 200,000 years. 'crime' suddenly appeared in horticultural societies once a surplus had been created, as it is easier to nick someone else's produce than grow your own. it seems that things like theft started to occur once horticultural societies evolved, which took a very long time to occur in the scale of human history. then there are agricultural societies, involving widespread domestication of animal and plant species. following from this trend seemed to occur the explosion of 'civilisation' abotu 10,000 years ago, which created massive surpluses. so we are talking about many different types of society.

i think astrid is trying to bait me to get that semester's worth of liberal arts training ;) i'll give you list of recommmended reading...

My own spin is: If one goes by Collapse, there’s a tendency of overcrowded primitive societies to become more rigidly hierarchical and oppressive. I posit that this transformation occurs because scarcity leads to more property crime and the larger social gatherings make the individual members less altruistic to the entire society.

the normal state of man in pre-horticultural societies is to group in kinship-based tribes, clans, and bands. they generally aren't hierarchical to any extent at all -- that is an artifact of much more advanced societies usually involving villages, towns and cities. when colonial powers went forth and would say to locals 'take me to your chief' they would be confused, as they often had no chief -- hierarchy came much later in terms of social evolution. sometimes the british etc more or less forced someone to be chief when it had no meaning to them, so the british could somehow relate to them.

oh, i give up, you don't seem to have read the observations on tribal life whatsoever, nothing on population densities, nothing on types of society, the advent of 'civilisation', etc... just get a 1st year college social anthropology textbook and have a read.... it's just an exercise in frustration.... 'collapse' is a work in pop anthropology -- not that many early societies were under population pressure at all... you are projecting your understandings of your own society onto totally different kinds of society, and it ain't gonna work... thank god i got a free university education instead of having to do business studies to pay back the loans...

Unless, of course, you mean to suggest that we do not experience scarcity in the modern world. (Which would be an even more absurd claim.)

scarcity of what? in your modern world? i assume you don't mean people living in the garbage mountain in manila. what are you short of? food? shelter? clothing? ridiculous. everything else is a luxury item...

the first chapter of every into textbook to anthropology discusses the low population densities and reproduction rates of simple hunter gatherer tribes that meant they could usually feed themselves reliably with about 3 hours work a day, especially when world population was low. that was my first point, which you haven't bothered looking up yet. let's just leave it as a research challenge for you to confirm or refute the other observations, instead of just whining.

how about those CME housing futures....

DS said:
scarcity of what? in your modern world? i assume you don’t mean people living in the garbage mountain in manila. what are you short of? food? shelter? clothing? ridiculous. everything else is a luxury item…

Everything is scarce. Otherwise, I wouldn't have to work to feed, house and clothe myself. I could just swing by my favorite restaurant and order a complete meal--free! I could fill my closet with clothes--free! My landlord wouldn't charge me rent! Where do I sign up for this world of abundance?? As for "luxuries" I suppose you mean things like cars, telephones, computers, plane trips, etc... These items may not be strictly necessary, from a survival standpoint. But they are kind of nice to have.

I suppose in your ideal world we would all be rounded up (kulakh style) and forced to be farmers, builders and weavers. No one could have a horse, let alone a car, or a phone, or take a vacation. On the production side, we will need to come up with a way of ensuring that farmers grow enough food for everybody, builders build enough housing units and weavers make enough clothes. Hard to do without some kind of oppressive, authoritarian central government. Then we should entrust our centralized beurocracy to handle the distribution side in a fair, impartial and inarguably "even" way. If you are lucky enough to be connected with one of these beaurocrats, maybe your allotment will include a spanish style home on a .25 acre standard-issue lot in Marin with views of the ocean. Of course, you may end up in a poorly built s*box in Modesto. But I'm sure our wise leaders can solve any perceived inequities without a problem...

The beaurocrats will also get to decide who gets the sushi and who gets the peanut butter. But never mind, I'm sure they will be wise and judicious enough to treat us all "equally." Or maybe, in this fantasy world, all food will be homegrown--so no sushi or peanut butter. Because you can't make sushi without fish *and* rice and most of the standard issue plots will not have a source of fish *and* a local rice patty. So we will all be eating home grown produce from our own gardens. But god forbid we attempt to trade some of our extra potatoes for an extra chicken or two! We might actually make a "profit" (based on some beaurocrat's determination of the FMV of said items) and that would be exploitative!

Even if your fantasy of utopian pre-horticultural societies were true, we could not go back to such a lifestyle in the modern world. In a world of 6 billion people we could not feed, shelter or clothe everyone without advanced forms of social organization. Any attempt to do so would quickly degenerate into a war of all against all. So how should we allocate resources? In socialistic societies (eg: Cuba) resources are distributed (roughly) evenly, as a result, no surplus is generated and everyone is poor. In capitalistic societies (eg: US) resources are allocated (roughly) to those who generate the most surplus, as a result some people are poor and some people are rich. I'll take the latter.

newsfreak,

Just visiting over on Ben's and they were featuring a major story about the Lehigh Valley in PA! It's become quite dreary actually.

"Things were soooo good just this time last year"

"We invite a more level playing field between buyers and sellers"

"Days on Market have increased from a few days at the longest to several months"

"No one could have predicted this happening" etc. etc.

Uh, I'm no expert in "criminal psychology" but any time someone gets stabbed 20 times there's more involved than just money. IMHO.

a close italics would've been handy...

now it’s philanthropy all the way. well, he’ll keep 20 billion and give away 20 billion. should JUST leave enough to live off… but the research is all good, altho there are numerous drug companies already developing anti-virals and vaccines for HIV, and for a host of other viruses. you have to make sure the countries being benefited aren’t just the Microsoft software mill ones, also…

If philanthropy is his love, his will eventually give almost everything away. Didn't he say that he will give ~95%+ away upon his death? Now, he still needs wealth and power to further his philanthropic goals.

Some people do not care about luxury. Some people like fine things. It is all in the stars.

BTW, it is better to extend big help to a small group than to extend small help to a large group. His wealth is limited, his has to make a choice.

Education is by far the most important, because one should be taught to fish. ;) Helping people in poor country is nice, but that will just prolong their hunger/suffering.

DS,

tribes were discovered — they do not fit your description at all, and had reasonably sophisticated horticulture while maintaining tribal kinship or band societies with low population densities in a synergy with the land. i think you insult their memory and harmony with the land, in fact, and they were generally not ‘acquisitive’ with the possible exception of potlatches as an artifact of the ‘big man’ society. more on that in another free internet college lesson

You don't know a whole lot about the history of the Amercian West, do you? There was, uh, a great deal of conflict between tribes before the European settles came. They slaughtered, tortured and kidnapped one another for centuries before the European settlers came along.

While some of the conflict between the Indians and settlers was tragic, I think it was also inevitable.

Let me ask you this: if you were able to travel back in time to 16th century America, to an area in which no white man ever set foot, and had the ability to start a new colony, one which would follow your notions of fairness, justice, and respect for native cultures and traditions, would you be willing to bring your wife and teenaged daughters with you?

Please answer the question.

I do not like the Microsoft programs on my computer, however. They are simply not intuitive the way my MAC was.

I loved Bill Gates so much that I would only use Microsoft software if one is available. But since he stepped down as the CEO I have started using other alternatives.

of course there was conflict between tribes. what numbers were they slaughtered, tortured and kidnapped in though for centuries before the europeans arrived, given that there were no europeans there to document it?

the english and americans quite happily exploited the native americans for their own military advantage.

one big difference is that native americans often used 'counting coup' in battle rather than just shooting people -- counting coup is a form of asserting dominance without causing death.

the answer to your question? you had absolutely no right to invade their lands, crowd them off their territory, give them fatal diseases, knowingly and unknowingly, lie to them about your aims, prevent them using the land in traditional patterns, upset the balance of nature, slaughter and destroy everything that they held dear, including the spirits of the buffalo, and destroy a group of proud peoples... but it happened... what would you do now if you discovered such a continent in the 21st century? please answer the question...

Peter P,

Gates hasn't stepped down just yet has he? I thought that would be phased out over the next year or so. Well, either way you are now free to explore other alternatives.

Godless: The Church of Liberalism - Ann Coulter

terrific....

Or teach them to grow crops suitable for their climate, not just corn, but the kind of corn or another crop that will thrive in their area.

True. Also, I think population control though education is important. The idea is to empower people with choices.

Giving poor countries food will only condemn them to perpetual poverty. Everybody dies sooner or later. Saving lives today or tomorrow will not make this a better world. We need to help people help themselves. This is the way to end poverty.

Gates hasn’t stepped down just yet has he?

He stepped down as the CEO a few fears ago. However, he is still the Chairman of the Board.

yeah, there never was a labor-saving device invented yet...

Well, either way you are now free to explore other alternatives.

Yes, I like FireFox better.

Nobodies worth that kind of money except God. Gates and Buffet are avoiding paying taxes by putting their excess money in trusts. Who looses? American tax payers.

Maybe Gates and Buffett decided they would rather do something about poverty and disease among the poorest of the poor, rather than provide support to the imperial aspirations of George W. Bush. Of course, if Bush had his way the charitable deduction "tax dodge" would be unnecessary, because you could pass 100% of your wealth to your kids without paying any estate tax.

SFWoman,

I understand that both Bill and Paul were perfectly approachable before the "pie incident" in Denmark? Since then they have both stepped up personal security and one fan was escorted out of a Blazer game b/c he "touched" Paul Allen on the shoulder during a game. The fan claimed he didn't really know who Paul Allen was but it was perceived as a threat.

Anne Coulter is possessed!

the big test is whether she can actually walk thru the door of a church without frying...

Better to feed them well and teach them to grow their own, and teach birth control, just extra food without education seems to end up producing more starving mouths.

Exactly.

did you know pollution over europe seemed to cause climactic change which lowered rainfall over ethiopia, thus inadvertently bringing on the famines?

did you know pollution over europe seemed to cause climactic change which lowered rainfall over ethiopia, thus inadvertently bringing on the famines?

It was unfortunate.

did you know pollution over europe seemed to cause climactic change which lowered rainfall over ethiopia, thus inadvertently bringing on the famines?

Yes, Western civilization and technology are the root of all evil.

Before there were markets, money, factories, cars, cellphones, televisions, computers, etc., people lived in perfect communal harmony with each other and nature. Noone ever went without a meal or had a toothache, injury or infection which might benefit from medical attention. There was never a dispute over land, food, sex or religion. The world was a land without scarcity or strife of any kind. There was perpetual happiness and gumdrops grew on trees and the children laughed and played in rivers of chocolate.

newsfreak Says:
I guess many places around the world now seed the clouds for rain and snow?

hmm, i don't think it works quite that easily... all the desert areas of the world tend to be about the same latitude, often caused by dry prevailing winds especially where there are coastal mountain ranges which cause all the rain to fall on the coast and not inland... so not much moisture in the air to form clouds or precipitate...

*disclaimer: not climatology advice *

Yes, Western civilization and technology are the root of all evil.

probably quite a lot of it, but it's not all evil...

paleolithic peoples didn't really have the choice of mobile phones...

altho if we keep consuming without restraint, we might just end up back there...

yes, wiki also says there are a few places they seed the clouds... they can get a 30% increase in rainfall... not sure what conditions are required for success, e.g. % relative humidity, temp, etc...

people lived in perfect communal harmony with each other and nature. There was perpetual happiness and gumdrops grew on trees and the children laughed and played in rivers of chocolate.

is this another critique of the boomers and flower power?

On a summer day in the month of May a burly bum came hiking
Down a shady lane through the sugar cane, he was looking for his liking.
As he roamed along he sang a song of the land of milk and honey
Where a bum can stay for many a day, and he won't need any money

Oh the buzzin' of the bees in the cigarette trees near the soda water fountain,
At the lemonade springs where the bluebird sings on the Big Rock Candy Mountains

There's a lake of gin we can both jump in, and the handouts grow on bushes
In the new-mown hay we can sleep all day, and the bars all have free lunches
Where the mail train stops and there ain't no cops, and the folks are tender-hearted
Where you never change your socks and you never throw rocks,
And your hair is never parted

Oh the buzzin' of the bees in the cigarette trees near the soda water fountain,
At the lemonade springs where the bluebird sings on the Big Rock Candy Mountains

Oh, a farmer and his son, they were on the run, to the hay field they were bounding
Said the bum to the son, "Why don't you come to the big rock candy mountains?"
So the very next day they hiked away, the mileposts they were counting
But they never arrived at the lemonade tide, on the Big Rock Candy Mountains

Oh the buzzin' of the bees in the cigarette trees near the soda water fountain,
At the lemonade springs where the bluebird sings on the Big Rock Candy Mountains

One evening as the sun went down and the jungle fires were burning,
Down the track came a hobo hiking, and he said "Boys, I'm not turning."
"I'm heading for a land that's far away beside the crystal fountains;"
"So come with me, we'll go and see the Big Rock Candy Mountains."

In the Big Rock Candy Mountains, there's a land that's fair and bright,
The handouts grow on bushes and you sleep out every night
Where the boxcars all are empty and the sun shines every day
On the birds and the bees and the cigarete trees,
The lemonade springs where the bluebird sings
In the Big Rock Candy Mountains

In the Big Rock Candy Mountains, all the cops have wooden legs
And the bulldogs all have rubber teeth and the hens lay soft-boiled eggs
The farmer's trees are full of fruit and the barns are full of hay
Oh I'm bound to go where there ain't no snow
Where the rain don't fall, the wind don't blow
In the Big Rock Candy Mountains

In the Big Rock Candy Mountains, you never change your socks
And little streams of alcohol come a-trickling down the rocks
The brakemen have to tip their hats and the railroad bulls are blind
There's a lake of stew and of whiskey too
And you can paddle all around 'em in a big canoe
In the Big Rock Candy Mountains

In the Big Rock Candy Mountains the jails are made of tin,
And you can walk right out again as soon as you are in
There ain't no short-handled shovels, no axes, saws or picks,
I'm a-goin' to stay where you sleep all day
Where they hung the jerk that invented work
In the Big Rock Candy Mountains

I'll see you all this comin' fall in the Big Rock Candy Mountains!

Interesting (and revealing) side-note: If you try to Google the lyrics to Pete Seeger's version "Big Rock Candy Mountain", you quickly find that every commercial music site has been ordered to remove these lyrics at Mr. Seegers request. I had to pull them from here.

Apparently the irony of enforcing intellectual property law on a song about a hobo's anti-materialist utopia was lost on Mr. Seeger.

Mike,

I know that I don’t actually take delivery of the pork or oil, but actually sell it at a future date to someone who does. What is someone taking delivery of when they sell a housing futures contract, and where did the initial asset come from to buy or sell?

There is not necessarily any exchange of goods in the futures trade of pork or oil. In fact, usually not. Not by you nor by anyone else. The trades are settled either in cash or with offsetting trades.

From Options, Futures and Other Derivatives, John C. Hull, 5th ed. (the bible on derivatives, if you want to learn how they work):

Closing Out Positions

The vast majority of futures contracts do not lead to delivery. The reason is that most traders choose to close out their positions prior to the delivery period specified in the contract. Closing out a position means entering into the opposite type of trade from the original one. For example the New York investor who bought a July corn futures contract on March 5 can close out the position by selling (i.e. shorting) one July corn futures contract on April 20. The Kansas investor who sold (i.e. shorted) a July contract on March 5 can close out the position by buying one July contract on April 20. In each case, the investor's total gain or loss is determined by the change in the futures price between March 5 and April 20.

...so a market of futures based upon a method-driven housing index as the underlying is not necessarily unsound. The question is in the index methodology. But such a market is no more "mysterious" or "vodoo" than an option on an equity index, or any of the various options or futures on ETFs.

There are futures on SPDRs.

There are futures on SPDRs.

So we have...

S&P 500 index funds
SPY
SPY options
SPX options
SP futures
SP futures options
ES futures
ES futures options
SPDR futures

How many ways do we need to "play" the S&P 500 index?