patrick.net

MMOG

Huh?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/MMOG

sorry, it's one of Randy's areas of interest

but it would be a good way to kill time on the subway

I've got a Treo, and I really like it. I mean, I really like it.

Like many guys, for many years I bought every tech gadget that hit the market. I stopped doing this about four or five years ago, but even then I remained interested in the gadgets, even if I no longer bought them all.

Most of the time, I would not use a gadget at all after I got it, except for the first week or two. Or if I did keep using it, I'd use only 10% of its features.

My Treo is the exception. I use it constantly, and utilize 90% of its features. Really use them, not just try them out. I check my email, keep my calendar and contacts, and browse the web. It's great!

I had a Pocket PC cell phone before the Treo. In addition to the cell phone and Pocket PC, it had Bluetooth and Wi-Fi. It was more powerful, but the user interface was far more cumbersome. It also crashed a lot.

I personally am very excited about the idea of a combination cell phone/Ipod. However, it's got to have a good user interface, and it's got to be reliable, or else I won't use it. My Treo is less powerful than my old Pocket PC, and has fewer features, but it works and is easy to navigage.

If Microsoft gets into the pda/phone/MP3 market, I probably won't be buying any of their products. But if Apple were to make a cell phone/ipod -- I'd give it a ring (no pun intended!)

Did someone say MMOG?

I want to set up an MMOG to model complex, irrational, psychology driven market behavior using real people as the "artificial intelligence" actors.

Then I want to use that model to systematically bankrupt hedge funds.

you know what the next big thing will be? Beer beetles. Apparently, scientists found out how to make beetles produce beer by planting fields full of yellow flowers. The beetles eat the flowers, then piss beer! amazing! and I'm going to be the 1st one to utlize this new technology. Way more interesting than flipping condos.

My boyfriend has a motorola slvr. He uses it for internet and iPod (though it has a 100 song limit, so it's more like a shuffle) functions. At every single stop, he gets out and checks for signals. But the phone is pretty limited on other options.

He's definitely getting 90%+ usage out of the phone.

The boy is addicted to fantasy baseball.

I want to set up an MMOG to model complex, irrational, psychology driven market behavior using real people as the “artificial intelligence” actors.

Then I want to use that model to systematically bankrupt hedge funds.

Are you seeking a partner? ;)

SHTF,

What about Slurm and the Slurm Queen? :)

Would we have different kinds of beer by planting different kinds of flowers? Is the beer a lager or an ale?

"I want to set up an MMOG to model complex, irrational, psychology driven market behavior using real people as the “artificial intelligence” actors.

Then I want to use that model to systematically bankrupt hedge funds.

Are you seeking a partner? ;) "

If you guys ever get that set up, be sure to check out the possibilities of such models for political consulting.

Did you guys see this chart on Ben’s blog? It shows a *slight* upward trend

Just a matter of time now. It is amazing how low the inventories were in '03! Seems like there is about an 18-24 month lag between the inventory cycle and the pricing cycle. Thus '04 and '05 prices reflect the low inventories of '02 and '03.... Hopefully the '07 and '08 prices will reflect the high inventories of '06...

The most popular request I heard at my brief stint with Verizon Wireless was a simple, rugged phone.

This is why I like my Samsung Blade. It is cladded in magnesium alloy and it feels sturdy. Plastic is a wrong material for cellphone.

I would like to see more phones like Nokia 8800 as well.

I would suggest that this is probably the best, if not the only, way to home ownership:

Blogger barters his way to home ownership

Start bartering, guys. I think it will work for everyone.

(He only got a donated $50K house in a remote Canadian town of 1 500, but hey, it's the principle of the thing...)

Hedge funds are now going long, so they're not really hedging anything anymore. It's just a way to bypass SEC scrutiny.

Astrid, how do you know Hedgies are going long now?

BTW, by definition, hedging almost always involves being on both sides of (not necessary the same) trade.

The problems with hedge funds seem to be (1) herd effect and (2) gigantic leverage.

Hedge funds are now going long, so they’re not really hedging anything anymore. It’s just a way to bypass SEC scrutiny.

Hedge funds do not necessarily hedge. However, I believe they do attempt to produce returns that are anti-correlated (or at least non-correlated) to traditional investments.

The problems with hedge funds seem to be (1) herd effect and (2) gigantic leverage.

Many hedge funds do not use more leverage than our friendly FB neighbors though. :)

Correct. Some FB's leverage is ill defined. In Calculus, they use a long arrow and a funny symbol involving an Eight lying down to represent this risk-taking behavior.

I personally am very excited about the idea of a combination cell phone/Ipod. However, it’s got to have a good user interface, and it’s got to be reliable, or else I won’t use it. My Treo is less powerful than my old Pocket PC, and has fewer features, but it works and is easy to navigate.

These PDA/phone/ipod/camera/mini-PC devices are all very cool, but one thing worries me: what if I get completely dependent on it then lose the damn thing? I've just lost the functionality of all 5 devices, plus whatever data I don't have backed up.

GC,

No inside information, just bits and pieces I pick up from mass media sources and from my SEC law class (which was largely a waste, the prof was one of very few pure market fundamentalists I've ever meet, he actually defended market timing AND Mike Milken's practices)

I heard Milken was singled out as a scapegoat. He was just too successful. The guy's junk bond operations did finance some good companies. MCI I believe was a beneficiary of that era. MCI (and Sprint) helped reduce the long-distance phone bills for millions of people.

HARM,

Always have a portable hard drive for backups. Computers always fail at some point, and they seem to fail with greater frequency if they're in close proximity to me.

I work in the IT industry but I never like electronic gadgets. Life is simpler and better without them. Technology, if properly designed, can be very helpful. But the bulk of the technology products are there mainly to separate you from your money.

I admire Mike Milken.

Oops, wrong term - not market timing

What's it called when a broker gives larger clients priority on buying and selling shares?

Selling risky bonds to stupid people is asking for trouble.

I'm neutral on Milken. But my prof basically believed that the market can do no wrong and any SEC regulation is wrong.

But the bulk of the technology products are there mainly to separate you from your money.

Cannot be more true. :)

I’m neutral on Milken. But my prof basically believed that the market can do no wrong and any SEC regulation is wrong.

Instead of regulation, SEC can help to improve transparency. In an imperfect world, some regulations may help improve investor confidence.

But your prof is mostly right, the market itself is morally neutral so pure market participants cannot possibly be "wrong".

However, the act of implementing a market can be morally-relevant.

That's assuming that (1) complete transparency is efficient or possible (I don't think it is) (2) that people can process that information effectively (3) no outside party attempt to distort the information in their favor.

I have no confidence in any of the three things happening. Furthermore, in stock market and commodity markets, you have to deal with cascading market failures and high risk behavior. These problems can be arrived privately or via public oversight, but public oversight is a bit more disinterested and less prone to corruption.

So much for the "Rising wages will spur inflation and bring about a miraculous Soft Landing" theory:

I have no confidence in any of the three things happening.

Well, our world is imperfect. :)

you have to deal with cascading market failures

Not with a Greenspan Put.

Hmmm... my link didn't post :-(

re-try: http://money.cnn.com/2006/07/05/magazines/fortune/imaginationeconomy.fortune/index.htm

Is the market morally neutral? Given that it's underpinned essentially by human greed? (Which prompts the question of what morality even is, of course.)

I am in Menlo/Palo Alto with friends…. can you recommend a sushi place or other eatery???

Sushi - Kaygetsu (Sharon Height)
Pasta - Lavanda (University Ave)

Both are on opentable.com.

Or do you have other type of food in mind?

Is the market morally neutral? Given that it’s underpinned essentially by human greed? (Which prompts the question of what morality even is, of course.)

Is greed morally neutral?

sushi is what I was looking for.

Reservation is essential for that restaurant, even on week nights.

Which prompts the question of what morality even is, of course.

I am sure we have different meta-ethical views.

DS said: Is the market morally neutral? Given that it’s underpinned essentially by human greed?

Humans (and other animals) are fundamentally greedy and selfish. Selfishness and greed are fairly effective survival traits in nature. This doesn't mean that humans (or animals) are "evil." We are all capable, at times, of putting the interests of others ahead of ourselves. But we can not be expected to do so in a predictable or systematic way.

Free markets merely acknowledge and harness our natural greedy instincts. The alternatives (communism, socialism, utopianism) attempt to deny human nature in the hopes of making it better or different.

DS said: Is the market morally neutral? Given that it’s underpinned essentially by human greed?

Humans (and other animals) are fundamentally greedy and selfish. Selfishness and greed are fairly effective survival traits in nature. This doesn’t mean that humans (or animals) are “evil.” We are all capable, at times, of putting the interests of others ahead of ourselves. But we can not be expected to do so in a predictable or systematic way.

Free markets merely acknowledge and harness our natural greedy instincts. The alternatives (communism, social-ism, utopianism) attempt to deny human nature in the hopes of making it better or different.

Free markets merely acknowledge and harness our natural greedy instincts. The alternatives (communism, social-ism, utopianism) attempt to deny human nature in the hopes of making it better or different.

Very true indeed.