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Funny. Crude up. Gold up. Dollar also up. Peter P is probably right. Money is fleeing into safe havens (gold and dollar).
You can accuse US of dirty dealings with bad guys. But every other power or super-power-to-be does the same.
up to a point. they also assassinate or undermine democratically elected leaders when it suits crony business interests, e.g. in south and central america, in order to instate 'bad guys' i.e. right wing despots. it's all in day's work...
unfortunately it's all covered with a veneer of sugar and empty rhetoric and moral high-grounding (the stuff that people know about), fooling most of the people most of the time...
Governor Conan Says:
Funny. Crude up. Gold up. Dollar also up. Peter P is probably right. Money is fleeing into safe havens (gold and dollar).
this is the classic 8-12 year Juglar 'business cycle'. cash -> shares -> property -> cash... what a surprise, the cycle's turned again, for the hundredth time...
well said, SP. someone here with a brain...
one rumour was that bin laden had died in 2001 in afghanistan, either from kidney failure or from a missile strike. i still view videos and 'audio from bin laden' with extreme suspicion. the US needs and wants an emanuel goldstein. further, i wonder how many of the western bombings are false flag operations, inside jobs, etc. there have been reports that some of the worst terrorist acts of the last several decades were engineered by infiltrators from the govts themselves...
I can see how this fits 94-2006. But the last (late) stock boom really started in the early 80's. How do you explain this?
speedingpullet Says:
...promoting airy-fairy concepts like Democracy and Freedom.
Weirdly enough, I was watching a documentary about the Viet Nam war recently, and heard much the same train of thought then, 35 years ago, as i’m hearing now from, how can I say this diplomatically, some of the more excitable people talking about Iraq today.
No, Im not comparing the Iraq war to the Viet Nam one. But its interesting, with VNW documentary fairly fresh in my mind, that the rhetoric used to justify it hasn’t changed much in the intervening years.
that's absolutely right. i see the rhetoric as an outsider. and each time, australia has been pulled into the conflagration as a marginal ally, and gone along for the ride usually with relatively minor casualties.
there is an incredible amount of continuity and consistency in the bullshit rhetoric and hidden agendas over the decades post WWII, ever since people like robert macnamara and henry kissinger got going. mainly repub govts, i think, correct me if i'm wrong...
if you look at how the UN pulled out very early from the East Timor independence, leaving them battling to form a stable govt, following the reversal of the Indonesion invasion in the 70s, and the way the US insists on staying in iraq 'even if it takes years' as rummy says, it's very obvious they are only about getting their hands on resources, forget all the democracy bullshit. the US and Oz have appeased indonesia for decades, preferring to install right wing crony capitalists, despots and imperialists as a supposed 'dam against communism' rather than let the commie menace take over, regardless of whether that would happen or not. so much for self-determination. they still appease them today, and are happy to recognise their annexation of half of new guinea...
I can see how this fits 94-2006. But the last (late) stock boom really started in the early 80’s. How do you explain this?
i believe there's been an extra long run on property. which questions the 'cycle' premise a little, but there you have it. stock run from 80-87, followed by the 87 crash and flight to property. my argument here is that property was bullish from 88-06, i.e. an 18 year run, with a lull just in around 1990-94, where maybe cash became ascendant. there really seems to be a flipping process, where when one market gets played out, people start looking for other places to plough their money, so it can only be one of commodities, shares (production, IP), cash or property. so no guarantee of religious cycling from one investment vehicle to the next, nor an exact timeframe, it's just the one that looks most undervalued. i think it's all a bit evil...
Did you mean one phase in the cycle lasts 8-12 years? I might have misunderstood. I thought 8-12 years include all phases.
Another quote from Newmont board:
Lil' Kim should have been made FRB Chairman since he prints more money than we do.
Hey all,
my long-delayed affordabiility based analysis -- the one that predicts declines as much as 75-80% -- will be ready today. This afternoon, west coast time.
Please rip it to shreds!
Did you mean one phase in the cycle lasts 8-12 years? I might have misunderstood. I thought 8-12 years include all phases.
each phase of the juglar cycle lasts 7-11 years -- except when it's 18... juglar cycles, elliott waves and kondriateff waves can all be contested tho...
as enumerated by joseph schumpeter:
In the Juglar cycle, which is sometimes called "the" business cycle, recovery and prosperity are associated with increases in productivity, consumer confidence, aggregate demand, and prices. In the cycles before World War II or that of the late 1990s in the United States, the growth periods usually ended with the failure of speculative investments built on a bubble of confidence that bursts or deflates.
Up in Arms,
Nice Work!
I particularly liked the Sign Spinner interviews! Will visit often as I have a friend that recently sold in Perris. He'd bought 6 or 7 years ago to have it as a place to raise his kids (not an investment). The flippers that bought it were so eager they asked if he could move his remaining stuff in the garage so they could "paint it out" even before actual closing. Last I checked it's still available. He's in Vegas and he calls me on his cell phone from his rented condo-tel! A narrow escape.
Governor Conan Says:
July 13th, 2006 at 9:42 pm
SpeedingPullet (or Bullet?):
Speeding Pullet.
As in A Very Fast Young Female Chicken, from the french Poulet.
It seems to be a joke that works better in the UK, as more people over there know what a pullet is...
SQT Says:
July 13th, 2006 at 10:43 pm
Speedingpullet
Welcome to our humble blog.
Thank you!
I'll try not to track dirt into the house or break any furniture.
Speedingpullet,
No, not joking. I am a true blue (or is that true red) Bush voter, 100% in agreement with the administration's foreign policy.
But that's just politics. We may have our political differences, but we are all united in our view of the housing bubble, flippers, loose lending standards, Realtors, etc.
Like you, I live in LA, in the San Gabriel Valley to be precise. I don't know of any local blogs, although the subject of SoCal comes up quite often in all of the housing bubble discussions.
Welcome! Hope you stay a while!
i believe there’s been an extra long run on property...my argument here is that property was bullish from 88-06, i.e. an 18 year run
Yes, I think there is a general consensus that RE has been a good place to park money, ever since that rally in the late 80's. Never mind the flat market from '90-95, it doesn't register on people's radar any more (if ever). That said, it's hard to figure out why people expected such incredible annual returns by 2000? Perhaps the tech bubble and RE industry cheerleading played a large role in psychology? People love hearing good news.
Does anyone know what the definition of a "townhouse" is?
When I think of a townhouse, I think of a Brownstone, or a row house; i.e. there's a garage and two stories on top of it. You share the left and right walls with your neighbors, but there is no one on top of you or beneath you.
But recently I have heard a "townhouse" defined as seperarte structures, spaced closely together, that all look alike.
Does anyone have any input on what the correct definition should be?
Does anyone know what the definition of a “townhouse†is?
I don't think it has a definition. Some "townhouses" are attached single-family houses. Some are actually just condominiums. I believe it is mostly a marketing term.
But I am NOT a realtor. So correct me if I am wrong.
Joe Schmoe.
Good question. I've raised that issue time and again w/realtors and others with no definitive answer. Here's my problem; back in the 1970's I believe when the whole idea of "condos' was born the concept was that they were comfortable, expenses were shared and they were modestly priced for empty nesters to facilitate downsizing.
How did this become soooo perveted? In many cases a couple would wind up spending as much if not more than what they sold their "family" house for!
Please keep the pergraniteel and just give us an AFFORDABLE place to sleep when we're not "up at the hospital"! It's as if there is a concerted effort to make sure you don't keep a dime from the sale of your previous home. AND, once your former co-workers and friends buy into this crap how in God's name are you ever going to convince your wife that "good enough" is good enough? I've heard it said that the money spent on granite counter tops and pergo should be spent on soundproofing! But then again it's difficult to "sell an intangible" like that when with the wave of a hand you can simply gesture to "built in sound surround system" like Vanna Fricken White!
Joe Schmoe Says:
July 14th, 2006 at 11:24 am
Does anyone know what the definition of a “townhouse†is?
As far as I can figure, its what the UK calls a "Terrace House"....ie exterior wals shared with a house one either side (or "End of Terrace" - one common wall and detatched on the other - typically more expensive because they're normally larger, or have larger gardens).
I’ve heard it said that the money spent on granite counter tops and pergo should be spent on soundproofing!
Counter tops and pergo are quite cheap actually.
I believe, as Peter P says, that being hired was a case of being in the right place at the right time.
Possibly so.
Freewill is an illusion. :)
Peter P,
I guess the point I was trying to make was that having all of this "eye candy" doesn't mean much to me (or most people) if you can hear your neighbor flush at 3:00am. The units we live in are "fairly" soundproof but the tile countertops are a pain to keep clean looking and the pergo scratches just like a car finish. Unlike real hardwood where the wear patterns and scuff add character the pergo looks, well....... scratched!
I suppose I don't care how "high end" or "up scale" they might be I'm not paying 500K+ for any condo/townhome/townhouse! Again, I thought the idea was "affordable" so your only expenses would be HOA's and taxes? What went wrong here?
This Saturday all of the guests for my daughter's engagement dinner will walk right past our collapsed (but very "high end") gutter. I'm just glad my wife's rath will be directed toward the management company and the owner, not me! Wish me luck guys.
Again, I thought the idea was “affordable†so your only expenses would be HOA’s and taxes? What went wrong here?
It is still relatively affordable and maintenance free. There are many types of granite and stone. Some may require more care.
I hate pergo. I like Zodiaq countertops.
Is it too soon to call BB Bendover? As in bendover for Shrub and Congress? Is he really able to operate free from political restraints?
Corian is bland, I declared war on tan a few houses ago.
Take a look at Zodiaq. It has texture.
I've always had a weird take on townhomes. I've always thought of them as several stories, sharing at least one wall, and a seperate address (not #5, etc.)
I hate where the sink meets the counter.
Then you need Corian for the seamless look. :)
Joe,
My understanding, having lived in a brownstone in the past, is that townhouse or townhome specifies shared sidewalls, separate entrance, and no other units either below or above yours. This is distinct from condo, which allows by definition units above or below yours. Brownstone is even less well defined. Brownstone is the soft stone material originally used to build the accents on buildings we now call brownstones, usually for the frame around the front door, the steps leading up to the front door, and often the window mantles. I think the common confusion is that many call any brick low-rise older building a brownstone.
My biggest beef with new construction is the chopped up rooflines. None seems to think about where the rain or snow will go.
The deal is closed by the time it rains.
RE: townhouses
Also, I think it may have something to do with the form of landownership and the role of the HOA.
San Fernando Valley haiku:
Oh, how I wish
it would rain here.
Both my cats sleep
under the AC vents.
In my case, it worked well for me. The place had a garage roof problem and it was repaired fully paid for by the HOA.
But you can also be assessed for damages in other units, as the HOA does not have an electronic printing press.
Just had another chat with the same friend & co-worker I mentioned before who just recently "discovered" RE speculating as the path to perpetual wealth. He was very excited as he told me all about his new membership with the local Marshall E. Reddick chapter of "investors" and how he already "owns" two properties in Utah & TX (using the requisite NINA I/O financing, of course) and is considering a third in AK.
Naturally, I asked him how if he was basing his "profits" on the actual cash flow (i.e., rents) on the properties vs. the guaranteed 2-digit/yr appreciation. He whipped out the Marshall Reddick "estimated cash flow" summary sheet for the AK property, which showed a net gain of $116/mo. I have no idea how they arrived at those numbers, so I asked him if he'd actually ever been to AK and checked out the local rental market to see if this "estimate" was even accurate. He said no (of course), but then explained to me that the kind folks at Marshall Reddick got them from the local realtors association, and those folks would never lie because (he actually said this): "Marshall Reddick has a lot of pull and generates so much business for them, they'd be afraid to mess with us".
At that point I congratulated him on his fine acquisition and recommended he look into investing in a good sturdy pair of kneepads and an extra-large jar of K-Y. Never know when those might come in handy.
Speaking of which...has is anyone here in the process of renting a place?
We have a friend staying with us at the moment, who is looking for a place to live. He thought he'd found the ideal place - 2b/2b SFH here in Van Nuys for 2K pcm.
The problem came when the Rentor asked him for an unbelieveable 14K for a deposit!!
All the places I've rented ask for First-and-Last, maybe with a small deposit in case you accidentally trash the carpet or something.
My guess would be that the Rentor is a FB desperately trying to recoup some money.
Anyone else heard of ridiculous deposits recently?
And - is it actually legal to do that here in CA?
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"Bring it on, I'm not afraid," says David Lereah
The Disassociated Press
By Jeff Gannon
July 12, 2006
A series of shootings that wounded 13 California Realtors® statewide during the past two months may be linked to an earlier set of assaults, slayings and the reckless speculative mania that killed four San Diego agents, police said Tuesday.
Clues in the serial shootings possibly point to the same perpetrator, San Diego Police Inspector Clouseau said, but so little is known that detectives are frustrated and need help to break the case.
'We have no description,' said Clouseau. 'This has been very perplexing for us. To have this many incidents without at least one witness, it's not making sense. All of them occurred during open houses in vacant condo towers all over the city, so you'd think there would have been some interested buyers around at the time, right? So far, we haven't even found one! '
Clouseau said investigators connected the two sets of crimes after discovering new information related to some underwater flippers and f@cked borrowers. He declined to elaborate, saying only that 'we believed in potential for this kind of vigilantism existed ever since affordability levels dropped below 8%.'
Detectives have been tracking the 13 shootings, which began May 2, as part of an unusual f@cked borrower crime wave. Police said they believe the recent shootings are related to 25 shootings that began when month-over-month prices began to fall in November 2005 and killed at least four people: two sub-prime mortgage brokers, plus a Realtor® and house "stager", who were hosting empty open houses. The actress who played "Suzanne" in the notorious Century 21 commercials has also been shot, though unfortunately it's looking like she will recover.
The 13 latest shootings all happened early in the morning, when eager buyers should have been lined up to start bidding wars --but weren't. "I don't know what's more depressing," said Ginger Bohland-Aliotta, "being a potential murder victim, or having to sit around all day staring at empty rooms while my youth and will to live slowly drains out of me. Frankly, I think I'd rather take the bullet."
Clouseau said he thinks more than one person may be responsible, and one of the suspects drives a light-blue colored 1963 T-Bird. Clouseau wouldn't say if he thought the shooter fired from the car, or what kind of gun might have been used.
Since August, a local FB task force has also been trying to catch a serial refinancer dubbed the "Equity Liberator", who authorities believe is responsible for obtaining five fraudulent HELOCs and a series of stated-income cash-out refis, when he actually had no job and was equity negative.
San Diego Mayor Jerry Sanders announced a $100,000 reward for information about either the serial Realtor® killer or the Equity Liberator.
According to a self described "debunker of Realt-Whore propaganda" who spoke on condition of anonymity, the killers may also be targeting high-profile Realtors®, such as NAR chief economist and media whore David Lereah. "After he wrote that execrable book, Liar-realtor basically signed his own death warrant," says our source. "He's going to catch a bullet eventually --it's 'in the bag'. And speaking of 'in the bag', I'm convinced Gary Watts may be next in line, and possibly Leslie 'equity liberation' Appleton-Young."
"I could be next," chirps Leslie Appleton-Young
"My violent end is 'in the bag'," insists Gary Watts
When asked what these real estate lightening rods could do to protect themselves from homicidal f@cked borrowers, our informant offered this advice: "Whatever you do, don't vary your daily routine. Make sure you keep doing the same things you always do the exact same way. That way, you'll throw the stalkers off guard, because they'll be expecting you to change your pattern."
"Besides," he added, "if you start doing things like wearing kevlar or having guards follow you everywhere, then the killers have already won, right?. I mean, what better way to demonstrate your iron resolve and committment to housing than by NOT protecting yourself. Only pussies 'cut and run' when they're threatened. You're not a pussy, are you David...?"
He also added, "On a totally unrelated topic, if anyone reading this happens to have David, Leslie or Gary's home address, could you please contact me? No particular reason..."
Copyright 2006 The Disassociated Press. All wrongs denied. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten, redistributed, spoofed, read aloud, publicly derided or used as birdcage liner.
________________________________________________________
DISCLAIMER:
This “news†story is a SPOOF/SATIRE meant for ENTERTAINMENT purposes only. Do not misinterpret this in any way as a “signal†that it’s ok to start shooting or assaulting Realtors. There are lots of nice, honest realtors out there just as disgusted with this mess as we are –George being one of them– nor did realtors “start the fireâ€. We can thank the Fed, Congress and the GSEs for that honor.
I and the owner of this blog are in no way responsible for anyone else’s irresponsible and/or illegal actions. --HARM
To see the original news story that inspired this spoof, click here.
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#housing