patrick.net

I can see how this fits 94-2006. But the last (late) stock boom really started in the early 80’s. How do you explain this?

i believe there's been an extra long run on property. which questions the 'cycle' premise a little, but there you have it. stock run from 80-87, followed by the 87 crash and flight to property. my argument here is that property was bullish from 88-06, i.e. an 18 year run, with a lull just in around 1990-94, where maybe cash became ascendant. there really seems to be a flipping process, where when one market gets played out, people start looking for other places to plough their money, so it can only be one of commodities, shares (production, IP), cash or property. so no guarantee of religious cycling from one investment vehicle to the next, nor an exact timeframe, it's just the one that looks most undervalued. i think it's all a bit evil...

Did you mean one phase in the cycle lasts 8-12 years? I might have misunderstood. I thought 8-12 years include all phases.

Another quote from Newmont board:

Lil' Kim should have been made FRB Chairman since he prints more money than we do.

Hey all,

my long-delayed affordabiility based analysis -- the one that predicts declines as much as 75-80% -- will be ready today. This afternoon, west coast time.

Please rip it to shreds!

Did you mean one phase in the cycle lasts 8-12 years? I might have misunderstood. I thought 8-12 years include all phases.

each phase of the juglar cycle lasts 7-11 years -- except when it's 18... juglar cycles, elliott waves and kondriateff waves can all be contested tho...

as enumerated by joseph schumpeter:

Traditional business cycle models

In the Juglar cycle, which is sometimes called "the" business cycle, recovery and prosperity are associated with increases in productivity, consumer confidence, aggregate demand, and prices. In the cycles before World War II or that of the late 1990s in the United States, the growth periods usually ended with the failure of speculative investments built on a bubble of confidence that bursts or deflates.

Up in Arms,

Nice Work!

I particularly liked the Sign Spinner interviews! Will visit often as I have a friend that recently sold in Perris. He'd bought 6 or 7 years ago to have it as a place to raise his kids (not an investment). The flippers that bought it were so eager they asked if he could move his remaining stuff in the garage so they could "paint it out" even before actual closing. Last I checked it's still available. He's in Vegas and he calls me on his cell phone from his rented condo-tel! A narrow escape.

Governor Conan Says:
July 13th, 2006 at 9:42 pm
SpeedingPullet (or Bullet?):

Speeding Pullet.
As in A Very Fast Young Female Chicken, from the french Poulet.
It seems to be a joke that works better in the UK, as more people over there know what a pullet is...

SQT Says:
July 13th, 2006 at 10:43 pm
Speedingpullet

Welcome to our humble blog.

Thank you!
I'll try not to track dirt into the house or break any furniture.

Speedingpullet,

No, not joking. I am a true blue (or is that true red) Bush voter, 100% in agreement with the administration's foreign policy.

But that's just politics. We may have our political differences, but we are all united in our view of the housing bubble, flippers, loose lending standards, Realtors, etc.

Like you, I live in LA, in the San Gabriel Valley to be precise. I don't know of any local blogs, although the subject of SoCal comes up quite often in all of the housing bubble discussions.

Welcome! Hope you stay a while!

i believe there’s been an extra long run on property...my argument here is that property was bullish from 88-06, i.e. an 18 year run

Yes, I think there is a general consensus that RE has been a good place to park money, ever since that rally in the late 80's. Never mind the flat market from '90-95, it doesn't register on people's radar any more (if ever). That said, it's hard to figure out why people expected such incredible annual returns by 2000? Perhaps the tech bubble and RE industry cheerleading played a large role in psychology? People love hearing good news.

Test

es

Does anyone know what the definition of a "townhouse" is?

When I think of a townhouse, I think of a Brownstone, or a row house; i.e. there's a garage and two stories on top of it. You share the left and right walls with your neighbors, but there is no one on top of you or beneath you.

But recently I have heard a "townhouse" defined as seperarte structures, spaced closely together, that all look alike.

Does anyone have any input on what the correct definition should be?

Does anyone know what the definition of a “townhouse” is?

I don't think it has a definition. Some "townhouses" are attached single-family houses. Some are actually just condominiums. I believe it is mostly a marketing term.

But I am NOT a realtor. So correct me if I am wrong.

Joe Schmoe.

Good question. I've raised that issue time and again w/realtors and others with no definitive answer. Here's my problem; back in the 1970's I believe when the whole idea of "condos' was born the concept was that they were comfortable, expenses were shared and they were modestly priced for empty nesters to facilitate downsizing.

How did this become soooo perveted? In many cases a couple would wind up spending as much if not more than what they sold their "family" house for!

Please keep the pergraniteel and just give us an AFFORDABLE place to sleep when we're not "up at the hospital"! It's as if there is a concerted effort to make sure you don't keep a dime from the sale of your previous home. AND, once your former co-workers and friends buy into this crap how in God's name are you ever going to convince your wife that "good enough" is good enough? I've heard it said that the money spent on granite counter tops and pergo should be spent on soundproofing! But then again it's difficult to "sell an intangible" like that when with the wave of a hand you can simply gesture to "built in sound surround system" like Vanna Fricken White!

Joe Schmoe Says:
July 14th, 2006 at 11:24 am
Does anyone know what the definition of a “townhouse” is?

As far as I can figure, its what the UK calls a "Terrace House"....ie exterior wals shared with a house one either side (or "End of Terrace" - one common wall and detatched on the other - typically more expensive because they're normally larger, or have larger gardens).

I’ve heard it said that the money spent on granite counter tops and pergo should be spent on soundproofing!

Counter tops and pergo are quite cheap actually.

I believe, as Peter P says, that being hired was a case of being in the right place at the right time.

Possibly so.

Freewill is an illusion. :)

newsfreak,

Congrats and Good Luck! Sounds better than a cube farm!

Peter P,

I guess the point I was trying to make was that having all of this "eye candy" doesn't mean much to me (or most people) if you can hear your neighbor flush at 3:00am. The units we live in are "fairly" soundproof but the tile countertops are a pain to keep clean looking and the pergo scratches just like a car finish. Unlike real hardwood where the wear patterns and scuff add character the pergo looks, well....... scratched!

I suppose I don't care how "high end" or "up scale" they might be I'm not paying 500K+ for any condo/townhome/townhouse! Again, I thought the idea was "affordable" so your only expenses would be HOA's and taxes? What went wrong here?

This Saturday all of the guests for my daughter's engagement dinner will walk right past our collapsed (but very "high end") gutter. I'm just glad my wife's rath will be directed toward the management company and the owner, not me! Wish me luck guys.

Again, I thought the idea was “affordable” so your only expenses would be HOA’s and taxes? What went wrong here?

It is still relatively affordable and maintenance free. There are many types of granite and stone. Some may require more care.

I hate pergo. I like Zodiaq countertops.

Is it too soon to call BB Bendover? As in bendover for Shrub and Congress? Is he really able to operate free from political restraints?

Corian is bland, I declared war on tan a few houses ago.

Take a look at Zodiaq. It has texture.

http://www2.dupont.com/Surfaces/en_US/products/zodiaq/

I've always had a weird take on townhomes. I've always thought of them as several stories, sharing at least one wall, and a seperate address (not #5, etc.)

I hate where the sink meets the counter.

Then you need Corian for the seamless look. :)

Joe,

My understanding, having lived in a brownstone in the past, is that townhouse or townhome specifies shared sidewalls, separate entrance, and no other units either below or above yours. This is distinct from condo, which allows by definition units above or below yours. Brownstone is even less well defined. Brownstone is the soft stone material originally used to build the accents on buildings we now call brownstones, usually for the frame around the front door, the steps leading up to the front door, and often the window mantles. I think the common confusion is that many call any brick low-rise older building a brownstone.

My biggest beef with new construction is the chopped up rooflines. None seems to think about where the rain or snow will go.

The deal is closed by the time it rains.

RE: townhouses

Also, I think it may have something to do with the form of landownership and the role of the HOA.

San Fernando Valley haiku:

Oh, how I wish
it would rain here.
Both my cats sleep
under the AC vents.

In my case, it worked well for me. The place had a garage roof problem and it was repaired fully paid for by the HOA.

But you can also be assessed for damages in other units, as the HOA does not have an electronic printing press.

Just had another chat with the same friend & co-worker I mentioned before who just recently "discovered" RE speculating as the path to perpetual wealth. He was very excited as he told me all about his new membership with the local Marshall E. Reddick chapter of "investors" and how he already "owns" two properties in Utah & TX (using the requisite NINA I/O financing, of course) and is considering a third in AK.

Naturally, I asked him how if he was basing his "profits" on the actual cash flow (i.e., rents) on the properties vs. the guaranteed 2-digit/yr appreciation. He whipped out the Marshall Reddick "estimated cash flow" summary sheet for the AK property, which showed a net gain of $116/mo. I have no idea how they arrived at those numbers, so I asked him if he'd actually ever been to AK and checked out the local rental market to see if this "estimate" was even accurate. He said no (of course), but then explained to me that the kind folks at Marshall Reddick got them from the local realtors association, and those folks would never lie because (he actually said this): "Marshall Reddick has a lot of pull and generates so much business for them, they'd be afraid to mess with us".

At that point I congratulated him on his fine acquisition and recommended he look into investing in a good sturdy pair of kneepads and an extra-large jar of K-Y. Never know when those might come in handy.

Speaking of which...has is anyone here in the process of renting a place?

We have a friend staying with us at the moment, who is looking for a place to live. He thought he'd found the ideal place - 2b/2b SFH here in Van Nuys for 2K pcm.

The problem came when the Rentor asked him for an unbelieveable 14K for a deposit!!

All the places I've rented ask for First-and-Last, maybe with a small deposit in case you accidentally trash the carpet or something.

My guess would be that the Rentor is a FB desperately trying to recoup some money.

Anyone else heard of ridiculous deposits recently?
And - is it actually legal to do that here in CA?

Anyone else heard of ridiculous deposits recently?
And - is it actually legal to do that here in CA?

http://www.latimes.com/classified/realestate/la-000006758jan27,0,515074.story?coll=la-class-realestate

Unfurnished rentals have a set limit that cannot exceed two months' worth of rent. For example, if your rent is $1,000 a month, the maximum security deposit you can be asked to pay for an unfurnished place is $2,000. At move-in, your cost could be $3,000 total (deposit plus rent for the first month).

There was a report i read that landlords even kicked out a old lady becouse they where turning it to a condo…………Greed is the key?

There is karma. They may reincarnate into lobsters.

There was a report i read that landlords even kicked out a old lady becouse they where turning it to a condo

You must be mistaken. All of my rich Boomer friends have assured me that Prop. 13 solved the "homeless grandma" problem here decades ago. Surely, Prop. 13's altruistic and benevolent architects thought to include low-income senior renters under Prop. 13's perfect umbrella of "protection", right?

Thanks for the link Peter P :-)

I've passed it on to him. Don't suppose it will make any difference to him renting that place, but at least he knows for future reference.

No affordability post today, everyone. Sorry. I am trying to actually get some work done today.

ps Newsfreak,

Congrats on the new slave!