patrick.net

DinOR,

Yup. I was talking to a family friend (white, not one of those crazy Asian ones) who works as a realtor in a non-hot market. She's been an agent for about 10 years and gets involved in about 10 transactions a year. But I talked to the woman for two hours trying to convince her why buying her soon to be off lease Acura is better than paying the mileage penalties and then buying a $10,000 used car. The woman also doesn't understand when to use credit cards and when to avoid them.

At least she doesn't "invest" in real estate, so she should weather any market cooling a bit better than most.

I think the realtor business has a way of attracting many financially naive people. The whole business is constructed a lot like a pyramid scheme where only the brokers and the top realtors make money. The people at the bottom make very little money and buy a lot of their own merchandise.

astrid,

"only the brokers and top realtors make money"

George has shared that from time to time and I'll take it further by saying the NAR is as much about membership as it is about sales. They make a ton off of membership fees. One of the oldest schemes in sales works like this:

Take a hundred guys off the street, doesn't really matter who. Have them peddle a product with a $2,000 commission. They get to keep HALF! Just tell them that the "average rep." sells 5 widgets a month. (Well with this kind of mark-up good luck getting 2 closes a month and more likely 1).

So each guy goes out there and works his guts out and is lucky to sell one widget. They make a grand for the whole month and promptly quit. The "sales manager" on the other hand made 100K!

Lather, rinse, repeat.

Oooh, or maybe us…for being right.

Don't shoot the messenger!

On another violent note, re: the doc in NYC who tried to blow himself up in his home, here's an article that reaffirms why many realtors should be lynched:

http://tinyurl.com/kgohc

"Property's Value Set to Boom"

Interviewing a bunch of NYC realtors about the historic house and property, the scum say:

"The value is not in the building, but the land on which it sits - especially in that area," said Corcoran Group CEO Pamela Liebman.

Another broker, who asked not to be named, said the site, minus the four-story brownstone "is a developer's dream" because there's no need to pay for demolition or to go through the costly and time-consuming process of evicting tenants.

Gee, thanks for the note of sympathy for the family and the tragedy of the situation. I'm glad you could look beyond your greedy little world and show some humanity. What a bunch of a$$holes.

SFWoman,

I thought it was a divorce atty?

I have seen many times in my career where dissatisfied "stock" investors attempted to sue. Many, many times. From time to time some of the cases were legitimate. Let's talk about the other 99.9% for a moment. We've all heard about instances where widows are fleeced by guys that sell sure fire IPO's or natural gas LLC's? Small potatoes. The majority of suits arise from LONG TERM investment relationships where the client all of a sudden feels exploited because of a loss. A family friend suggests they explore legal alternatives and once a lawyer gets involved there MUST be some sort of wrongdoing! Otherwise he/she ceases to have a function.

By the time the client realizes what a mess they've created they're hip deep in it and there's no turning back. Besides the lawyer is dangling a "huge" settlement in front of the client. The client (by now) is aware that they have destroyed the relationship and a lot of good will but even if they only get half of what they ask they can always go down the street to another firm. Well by now the "relationship" is with the atty. and they go up and down the street making money through litigation vice investing. In smaller towns (like Portland) they can wear out their welcome in a matter of just a few years. New York, L.A? This process can go on indefinitely!

Then comes the day when some rookie broker gets the phone call and is all excited and when he tells the sales manager who's on the line everybody in the office rolls their eyes into the back of their heads and laughs. They ALWAYS target hungry rookies!

It's called "riskless investment" and the industry is attempting to identify and black ball these low lifes. Ah, the way of the world.

Just so it's clear to everyone here, the above is a news story SPOOF for entertainment purposes only. I'm certainly NOT advocating violence against Realtors --not even self-serving "economists" like David, Leslie & Gary (DLG?).

Besides, if you want to engage in housing bubble vigilantism there are much more worthy targets --Alan Greedspan and Franklin Raines, for example.

Just kidding... again... :mrgreen:

HARM,

I WANT you to write my Boomer Death Cult text. :)

I’m certainly NOT advocating violence against Realtors

Why would anyone want to put a Realthore out of misery? They need to stay alive and suffer for the big mess they made! :twisted:

@Randy & astrid,

Gee thanks, I'm flattered!

On another note, I just checked the moderation queue and there are now 105 new spam messages that appeared since last night! There must have been something in this thread that attracted spambots like crazy --or maybe it was just from having all the names of all the most prominent CA Realtors together in one post.

"Yes HARM– you should pursue your creative talents, perhaps a screenplay, or the book, the movie, and the toys to go with."

Maybe a licensing deal for HARM brand cyanide laced Kool-aid...HARM brand ticking no brainer time bombs...

newsfreak,

I promise to only recruit amongst the stupid and greedy. I think anyone who joins an organization named Boomer Death Cult is pretty much asking for it.

On yet another side note, I actually know the guy who was hired to build the Heaven's Gate death cult website. He still does web hosting to this day.

astrid,

I'm surprised at you! Have you learned nothing all this time?

It's all in "how" you sell it!

"Join the path of the Mystic Ones"

"Follow the Path of the Greats"

You too can join Jerry, Timothy, Ken and commit the final act of defiance against your "square" parents generation! Let's face facts, the "heaven on earth" we were so close to attaining never fully materialized so why wait? Beat the crowd! Jimi and Janis await you with open arms!

Break on through to the other side!

THE END

Japan is raising rates to .25% it seems. What is the possibility that the Fed will drop rates to 0% post bubble crash?

HARM,

What impressed me about the post is your versatility!

The post sometime back "If Raymond Chandler were alive today" was the bomb!

This "piece" gives us the feel of a breathless "cub reporter" astonished by the very story he's reporting. Cool links too! That gave it a "comic book" sense of urgency. "When we last left you, our fearless hero was........"

Good stuff. Definitely a keeper.

Japan is raising rates to .25% it seems. What is the possibility that the Fed will drop rates to 0% post bubble crash?

Good question... I have wondered this myself. I wish I had a better grip on the fundamentals. Would the Fed be willing to discard its remaining credibility as an inflation fighter and usher in a dollar crash in order to save the FBs and the FLs? Or are they tough enough to handle the outcry as ARMs reset, unemployment takes off and FBs drown?

My guess is that we will see another cycle of extremely low short term rates--we have not seen the end of "cheap money." Whether this translates into low long term rates in a dollar crash scenario is beyond me... but if it does, then those of us waiting out the bubble should still be able to get loans on favorable terms, because I suspect the banks will be begging for our business.

Japan is raising rates to .25% it seems. What is the possibility that the Fed will drop rates to 0% post bubble crash?

Good question… I have wondered this myself. I wish I had a better grip on the fundamentals. Would the Fed be willing to discard its remaining credibility as an inflation fighter and usher in a dollar crash in order to save the FBs and the FLs? Or are they tough enough to handle the outcry as ARMs reset, unemployment takes off and FBs drown?

Glen, no supreme grasp of the fundamentals here is needed --just a casual understanding of the nature of self-interested, myopic bureaucrats who can see no further than the next election cycle for their political benefactors. BB, like his unfathomably overrated predecessor, will drop rates as soon as enough FBs & voters scream "Uncle!" to their Congressmen. Sadly, there hasn't been any real Fed credibility on inflation-fighting since Paul Volcker.

I hope I'm 100% wrong on this, but unless BB turns out to be more than an eager-to-please cheap political hack who talks tough, but won't hold firm (likely), he will start cutting rates again either late this year or early 2007. The only question is, will this be enough to re-stimulate the housing bubble and/or broad-based inflation? The latest stats on stagnant wages and tepid job growth tells me "probably not".

Don't know about his going all the way down to zero, though. If you haven't already seen it, I'd check out Randy's ZIRP, Global Imbalances, and Home Prices thread on this very topic.

0% would certainly be a lifeline to the FBs. Especially if they were out shooting the FR's(realtors). I guess it goes back to the trillion dollar question, is Ben an inflation fighter? The price of gold tells me a lot of people think Ben will not really fight inflation.

HARM,

The Fed (and NAR) would like nothing more than lower rates. The Fed for political reasons, NAR to "stabilize" the RE market. However the "50 bps. in August" crowd is gaining membership. The yankee dollar has already given up enough ground and lower rates (however welcome) would create a stampede to bail out of MBS. They need to coddle the debt paper already trading without regard to issuing more of it. It's truly a damage control situation now.

The crying "uncle" will likely be met with some sort of re-nogotiated loan program vice an outright lowering of rates. That way pols can appear generous and the Fed can save face at the same time. IMHO.

Oh and for those even following the ongoing saga of the incredible falling apart 2 year old shitbox;

The owner, property manager, HOA atty. (also resident) and two small dogs were out to look at our collapsed gutter. The owner was clearly miffed and was already threatening to get the builder on the phone ASAP! The property manager asked the HOA atty. if they should be considering legal action. Regular meeting of the minds I tell you.

Turns out that the flashing was held in (near as they could figure) by gravity and the gutter (while screwed) was not "screwed" into anything! Sure there were screws but they terminated into well........ thin air! The hell w/craftsmanship and attention to detail! How's about making sure the gutters stay where they're put? Can't wait to see them "re-hang" the gutters for the whole complex. How well does a stud finder work through a sheet of galvanized steel? Yeah, uh huh, they're coming down.

the gutter (while screwed) was not “screwed” into anything!

Screwed gutter, meet screwed owner. :-)

Can we use this thread to christen a new acronym? FR! Fucked realator!! Are the workers at taco bell going to have competition for jobs from the FR crowd? I guess, "Would you like some hot sauce with your tacos sir? is better than, "Call 911 I've been shot"!

Most realtors are good people. Some may be misguided. But we should be nice to them.

SQT,

Actually the "fellow" that committed those atrocities HAD murdered before! The way he got the day trading money was by killing his "ex" making it look like an accident and collecting on the insurance money. The PD was aware that something was fishy but couldn't quite pin it on him so it went "cold case". What a jitbag.

Places where someone has met their end kind of weird me out. It had to be kind of creepy going in their everyday? I mean this wasn't "shoot out at the O.K Corral", this was a helpless person being gunned down. That weirds me out. I think Peter P would say "bad karma"?

"meet screwed owner" LOL!

The owner clearly did not appreciate my sense of "humor" as all I said was that "only God can make something perfect, and we're just men".

He huffed at that and basically demanded to get the builder on the phone!

HARM, you're absolutely right. We'd all do well to steer clear of bubble homes, not only for their "blue sky" pricing but for the hasty manner in which they were constructed.

Peter P,

Are you a fan of Vernon Howard? It just seems like you're in this place where NOTHING messes with you. Wish I could be like that.

Mr Vincent,

A couple of months ago I highlighted a complete POS (IMO) house for sale. The price has just been reduced from 538K to 466K and still no activity. That’s a 72 gurrr reduction. There are other homes that have been reduced with no activity after reduction.

Since we both live in Alhambra, I don't know why one of us hasn't bought that house. I expected to be in a bidding war with you!

Sure, it's only got 2 bedrooms, there's no back yard, and the house is small -- probably @800 square feet -- but think of the upside potential! The ad says "needs a little TLC." From that, I assume that there are no granite countertops in the kitchen. I smell a flip!

In fact, what am I waiting for...I'm going to make a bid on that place right now. Can you give me the number of your friend the mortgage broker?

I just read the listing again. The house has 696 square feet! A little smaller than I had envisioned, but I can still make this work. Maybe the cinder block garage can be turned into a third bedroom, or a study!

"Most realtors are good people. Some may be misguided. But we should be nice to them."

Govt. issued flack jackets? How about just keeping the interest rates low and ignoring inflation altogether. Would this be nice enough?

Are you a fan of Vernon Howard? It just seems like you’re in this place where NOTHING messes with you. Wish I could be like that.

Well, they may be messing with us, intentionally or not. However, they will be in depression for years very soon. I may or may not be sympathetic but I am going to be nice to them. :)

Joe Schmoe,

696 sq. ft? Maybe that would be O.K for a cabin by the lake but 24/7 365? I haven't seen it but it might be better to tear it down?

Oh, no slight intended toward legit attys. It's just in my industry there are times when more ROIC can be attained through litigation than actual investment. They have "career plaintiffs" and they cost everyone. Kind of like a professional victim?

Call 1-800-Stock-Losses for your free case evaluation today!

There’s going to be a lot of pi$$ed off homedebtors who are going to be looking for someone else to blame. It may the be realtors® and mortgage brokers who become the literal targets.

Let's hope that they do not blame their neighbors for reducing prices..

There’s going to be a lot of pi$$ed off homedebtors who are going to be looking for someone else to blame. It may the be realtors® and mortgage brokers who become the literal targets.

This worries me as well. Let me repeat once more for any readers not paying attention: The "news" story opening this thread is a SPOOF/SATIRE meant for ENTERTAINMENT purposes only. Do not misinterpret this in any way as a "signal" that it's ok to start shooting or assaulting Realtors. There are lots of nice, honest realtors out there just as disgusted with this mess as we are --George being one of them-- nor did realtors "start the fire". We can thank the Fed, Congress and the GSEs for that honor.

I am in no way responsible for anyone else's irresponsible and/or illegal actions.

"nor did realtors "start the fire"

Now THAT is absolutely true. While they did benefit from the bull run they were hardly the architects.

Just curious, when was the last time anyone saw a RE listing on C/L where it actually looked lived in? I've seen a lot of blatantly unoccupied homes, staged homes, about to be repo'd homes and that unmistakable "flipper look" homes, just can't recall seeing any that looked lived in. Just wondering.

Illegal shootings are wrong. There is no question about that.

I just have trouble with people who refuse to take responsibility of their past actions. If their investments went poof, they should blame no one but themselves.

I just have trouble with people who refuse to take responsibility of their past actions. If their investments went poof, they should blame no one but themselves.

I generally agree with the caveat emptor principle; however, would add that there's a lot of deliberate, malicious disinformation floating around out there. For every greedy specuvestor going in with eyes wide open, there is also a naive young couple looking to buy their first home being partly suckered into overpaying and taking on crushing debt, thanks to industry-standard FUD and bait-and switch tactics.

Plus we had our glorious former Fed chief shilling for option-ARMs at the worst possible moment (when rates were still at 1%), when he damned well knew that HE was about to raise them. Almost everyone involved in the Realtor-Mortgage-Industrial Complex had a hand in creating this mess, from the Bubble-blowing Fed, to the risk-shifting GSEs, to the sacred-cow deduction protecting NAR lobbyists, to chicken-shit politicians.

No one is completely innocent in this game, no one is completely blame-free. However, some are a lot more deserving of blame (and pain) than others.