patrick.net

Astrid,

The people of Iraq do not hate us. Some of those in the Sunni Triangle perhaps, and the foreign terrorisrts who have gone there to join the jihad, certainly.

But the insurgency in Iraq woudl be 1,000 times worse if the people of Iraq really were outraged at the presence of American troops on their soil.

They know that we are trying to help them. They see how Sadaam treated them vs. how we do it. Having thousands of armed foreigners in your country might not be an ideal state of affairs, but they know our intentions are basically noble. And they want to live in a democracy, as we do. That is why they risked their lives to go to the elections that we set up.

Still, Singapore is one small rock and the ruling family is able to keep a firm grip on its relatively small population.

True. But India, also a former colony, is not a small rock. It has a thriving information industry and it even has its own space program!

We are trying to reform the whole region, not just Iraq. We had to start somewhere.

They are coming to kill us. We’ve got to do something.

Joe,

I agree the Middle East is a pretty f@cked up region. But it was that way long before America even existed, and it will probably be that way long after we pull out of Iraq.

"Reforming" an entire region (i.e. bringing Western style democracy) is an incredibly gargantuan task that no nation --not even the U.S., powerful as it is-- can accomplish on its own. For that matter, I take issue with the claim of all those "thriving democratic governments" that were forcibly created by occupying powers.

The post-Civil War southern USA:
Was the South a dictatorship prior to the Civil War? Hardly. They started out as part of the U.S., setup their own separate (but still representative & elected) government, then were forced to rejoin the Union 5 years later. At no point did they abandon democratic government, even though they fought to preserve enslavement of blacks.

Japan:
This is about as close to an example of "successfully imposed democracy" as I can think of, but seems to be the exception, rather than the rule. Oh, and they started out with one big advantage over other regions: a first-world industrialized infrastructure (even though it was bombed to ruins) and a highly educated/literate public.

Germany:
They at least had the Weimar Republic (some experience with democracy) prior to descending into facism, and --like Japan-- a first-world infrastructure and highly educated/literate public.

Panama:
Basically a U.S. satellite, created by carving a strategic chunk out of former Columbian territory to build the canal. Not much of a "nation" to speak of, and still largely under our direct sphere of influence/protection.

Greneda:
A caribbean island with, what --about 500 inhabitants?

India:
Occupied for the British for nearly 200 years, who they successfully expelled, through guerrila warfare & non-violent protest. Not so much an "imposed" democracy, as an evolved one that was created by Indians themselves.

The Phillipines:
Another U.S. island satellite. Very politically unstable, very poor, with Marxist rebels still battling U.S.-backed government troops as we speak.

This is about as close to an example of “successfully imposed democracy” as I can think of, but seems to be the exception, rather than the rule.

A country with an extensive culinary culture (like Japan) will always be civilized. People want to live another day just to eat.

Joe Schmoe,

The Arabian Peninsula was sparsely populated by nomads before 1900. America was not a major player there until at least after WWI and probably not until WWII. So hundreds of years of hatred cannot exist. The few people on the Arab Peninsula was more interested in carving their kingdoms out of the Ottoman Empire than hold a grudge against a country very few would have heard of. You mentioned countries they purportedly hated, note that those were all occupying forces who held these people against their will, and they all failed to assimilate these people, even though they are much more experienced at imperialism and willing to resort to much cruel methods. Is that not a reason for us to get the hell out, ASAP?

As for Israel. Well, I'm against the existence of an Israel in Palestine. Displacing a large native population and living amongst sure to be hostile neighbors...that's just asking for trouble. They should have been given a less occupied area, perhaps on the African side of the Mediterrean coast. American support for Israel has indeed caused us nothing but headaches. We did this to ourselves, we gave the Arabs a reason to hate us rather than deal with their underlying problems.

I will not question what we've done in that past, that cannot be changed. But we ought to learn lessons from the problems of our intervention there and not repeat them on a grander scale.

Well, I’m against the existence of an Israel in Palestine.

Huh? 8-O

Most of the stable and successful (however you want to define that) of the world's democracies have one thing in common: they were created by the will of the people in those nations themselves, not imposed by a foreign power.

If the French had invaded America in 1760 to "liberate" us "colonial Anglo savages" and bring us the gift of "superior" French civilization and culture, I wonder what sort of response they would have received from the locals?

Joe,

Do you read polls taken of Iraqis? Ones taken outside of Kurdish areas? We're losing hearts and minds everyday we're there.

We had much more support in South Vietnam (which had a semi-functional civil service and a century of fairly placid rule by the French) and we still couldn't make it. The situation in SW Asia is unmanageable as is.

It doesn't matter. The Bush administration will soon lose support of the vernture there and they'll leave and declare victory. That's the best possible outcome available now, all those American deaths and American dollars will have been spent to further Osama's goal of destabilizing the area and less friendly to America.

If the French had invaded America in 1760 to “liberate” us “colonial Anglo savages” and bring us the gift of “superior” French civilization and culture, I wonder what sort of response they would have received from the locals?

Des the "superior" gift include excellent French sauces?

HARM,

Yup. Japan too was modernizing and moving towards democracy at a fast clip in the 1920s, before being set back by conservative militarists in the 1930s. Both the Japanese and the Germans also went through an internal unification process which already cohered into a strong national identity. Thus, they had an interest in their country succeeding. The Shia, the Sunni, and the Kurds all have no interest in their country succeeding. Their tribal/religious identification comes before their national identification.

Also, the Japanese and the Germans understood the choice to be between US or USSR. Their governments had also demonstrably failed at what they promised. Furthermore, both country were fairly middle class and egalitarian, thus not as prone to producing radical extremists. That the cooperation and even active participation of the Japanese and the Germans were pivotal to the success of their governments/countries.

astrid,

Good point about the tribalism/religious sectarianism. Most successful & stable democracies also tend to be culturally homogenous --even when ethnically diverse-- and require placing NATIONAL identity ahead of tribal/religious identity. Hmmm... kind of reminds me of the whole debate over illegal immigration and "divided loyalties" theme.

Joe,

"Fighting" terrorism and tyranny can take many forms, just as terrorism and tyranny has many sources. While direct military action is sometimes unavoidable and completely justified (Afghanistan), it's not the only tool in the shed.

I think one of the most potent "weapons" we can use against terrorism & tyranny is to provide a good example of a healthy, prosperous, well functioning democracy that respects human rights and rule of law. The more we try to live up to the shining "City on a hill" ideal, the more we will be a beacon --and example-- of freedom to the oppressed all over the world.

We can also pursue the aim of spreading democracy by supporting --and funding-- programs aimed at increasing literacy, birth control and education. Or by rewarding nations that respect rule of law, free markets and human rights with favorable trade agreements. And when that fails, we can always secretly arm the opposition ;-).

HARM,

It is a little too late for the Peace Corps.

Besides -- and this is really, really important -- we've already been doing what you suggest for decades, if not centuries. We're already setting an example.

The entire world can watch TV and see that we are a country that chooses its leaders by free and fair democratic elections, has constitutional guarnatees of free speech and association. They already know that we do not brutialize and subjugate women, allow people of all relgions, including Islam, to freely practice their faith, etc. These things are not news to anyone. The US has given billlions of dollars in aid to foreign countries for decades. Everyone already knows what we are about and what we stand for.

Yet despite the shining power of our example, the Middle East is still stuck in the middle ages. We're not inspring them. They're not reforming.

And we've been doing a lot more than set an example -- we've been pressuring them, with carrot and stick, for years. In the 1990's, the only thing standing between the House of Saud and a fundamentalist revolution was US troops. You'd think that when the rulers owed their very lives to us, they'd finally give into our requests to permit women to get driver's licenses. Did this happen? No!

Either the despots are too powerful, due to their vast wealth, or the people of the Middle East are simply incapable of modernizing and reforming on their own. So we're trying to upset the applecart and help them modernize.

The evidence that the people of the region want what we are offering is overwhelming. They risked their lives to vote in the elections that we set up. When is that last time that an American risked his life for the right to vote? That's a commitment to democracy.

They haven't voted in a bunch of mullahs. Iraqi politicans are not trying to legislate Sharia into law establish a constitutional theocracy. Why not? Becuase the people of Iraq are not stupid. They see how badly the theocrats have screwed up the neighboring countries of Saudi Arabia and Iran. Besides, they know that the theocrats are not about religion, they are about power. The Iraqis know a would-be dictator when they see one.

Remember when all the liberals said "the insurgency is growning," "there is a 'closing window' of opportunity in Iraq," and that if we didn't reconstitute the Iraqi army and get the power in Baghdad restored, the whole thing would be a disaster. They were wrong then, and they're wrong now when they say that a civil war has broken out in Iraq.

We're succeeding over there. It's not certian to work, but thus far we have performed beautifully. And I think it is going to work. We're almost there.

And our noble effort in Iraq isn't the only measure of our success. The people of the region fear us now. The young men of the region see that we are beating the jihadis. We didn't just crumble, like bin Laden said we would. They know that if they hit us, we'll hit back.

Astrid,

India has something like 12 languages and a 50% literacy rate. Yet it's a functioning democracy. In the mid-19th century, the US was so politically divided that we fought a civil war, killing over 620,000 of our own people. Yet in the aftermath, we managed to re-establish a functioning democracy and have lived in peace with one another for almost 150 years.

You don't need to be homogenous to be a successful democracy. It certainly helps, but it's not a prerequisite. Heck, the US is a nation of immigrants. We get by.

And in the final analysis, people are going to have to learn to get past their tribal differences if they are going to live in the modern world. If we were to split Iraq into Kurdistan, Shiastan, and Shiite-ville tomorrow, there would still be lots of conflict. There would always be tension in those border villages that are 50% Shia and 50% Sunni. And the Islamic Republic of Shiastan would, of course, never forget the many outrages that the Shiite-villians perpetrated on them when both lived in Iraq. Redrawing the borders would not solve these problems. People have to learn to bury the hatchet on their stupid tribal conflicts and move on.

Joe,

You can believe that we're "winning" and that "winning" is possible. History is not on our side. There is consequences for what America has already done in Iraq, and there will be future consequences if we want to stay there.

You can't chose other people's destiny and tell them what is stupid and what isn't. The point isn't who is right and who is wrong. The point is that they have to learn their own lessons. Attempts to teach them will backfire. Believe me. I am Chinese and I've studied Chinese modern history very closely (and have a working knowledge of modern history in general), and well intended attempts at occupation and protectorates caused resentment. The Chinese even started calling the Soviet Union imperialist. This is the case even though the Qing dynasty was a decrepit and obvious failure.

Honestly, I don't think it'll matter what you think. We'll be out of there. It'll be ugly, but we'll be out of there soon enough. And as ugly as it is going to get, it's way better than staying.

The "Fear=Respect" equation may work taming horses and training dogs, but I doubt its a great motivator, especially for 'winning hearts and minds' and promoting airy-fairy concepts like Democracy and Freedom.

I'm hoping, Joe Schmoe that you are joking. i'm not entirely convinced you are, but I'll give you the benefit of the doubt, seeing as i'm new here and all, and i don't want to delurk straight into a Flame War.

Wierldy enough, I was watching a documentary about the Viet Nam war recently, and heard much the same train of thought then, 35 years ago, as i'm hearing now from, how can I say this diplomatically, some of the more excitable people talking about Iraq today.

No, Im not comparing the Iraq war to the Viet Nam one. But its interesting, with VNW documentary fairly fresh in my mind, that the rhetoric used to justify it hasn't changed much in the intervening years.

I wonder if, in 35 years time, everyone will feel as positive and right about Iraq as they do about Viet Nam now...

Anyway, I digress.

Hello, and I think this is a brilliant forum.

I like my housing bubble info liberally spread with other topics. I'm also glad to see that, despite some tempers heating up from time to time, everyone tries hard to be civil. I've been to too many forums where everyone gets very cranky and shouts at each other. So, its nice to see that shouting is kept to a minimum here. i like a good argument as much as the next person, but get bored with being shouted down for my opinons, just because they don't jibe with someone else's. Keep it up. I've only been here for a couple of days, but i like it already.

And....bubbles....I'm in LA, so does anyone know of a blog dealing with RE here?

As way of a present, I offer you this stunning, spacious (754 sq ft) bungalow, complete with "quaint" bath (yes, it really says quaint. Where I'm from quaint is word word used to denote something you should run from, not get in to, but there you go), in really quite reasonably priced El Segundo, mere minutes away from (and under) the flightpath for LAX.

http://tinyurl.com/fs7rc

You too can leave your wallet in El Segundo!

I think if the camel humpers would just embrace the Shrubs imaginary friend instead of their imaginary friends everything would be ok.

Joe,

PS, I couldn't read the top three lines of your comment. Finally went into edit mode so sorry for not noting your comment on India.

The British didn't civilize India and the move towards democracy there was native. Furthermore, the Brits spend 150 years and much of their civil and administrative resources on it. America is not going to put in the same kind of resources. And before you over-romanticize the democracy and level of progress in India, note that the ruling government is based on Hindu chauvinism, that modern India's founder and 2 of its prime ministers were assasinated by sectionarians, that sectarian violence has surged periodically and responsible for thousands of deaths, that it has a low grade and pointless war in Kashmir that is largely due to religious differences, and that the situation was so untenable that East Bengal had to be broken away. Oh, there's also that little nuclear arms race btwn India and Pakistan. To this day, I would hardly call India something something Americans necessarily want to strive for in SW Asia. And, like the English in India, the Americans are in fact playing the factions against each other to retain control and inflaming sectarianism.

And you can ask SP how he feels about the English occupation there.

SpeedingPullet (or Bullet?):

Had US not intervened in Vietnam, NVA would have had an easy walk to Saigon and there might be more such easy walks incited around the world by GodKnowsWho.

The fact that US went and fought with tenacity might have instilled certain fear in her opponent's mind so that the latter would be more cautious. So communism didn't spread quickly like wild fire as initially feared. But that does not invalidate the initial thesis that led to the Vietnam war. The only way to invalidate the thesis -- easy fall of Vietnam would cause fast spread of communism -- is to have a parallel universe.

we’ve been pressuring them, with carrot and stick, for years. In the 1990’s, the only thing standing between the House of Saud and a fundamentalist revolution was US troops. You’d think that when the rulers owed their very lives to us, they’d finally give into our requests to permit women to get driver’s licenses. Did this happen? No!

And who's fault was that? Come to think of it, why didn't we let the despotic House of Saud be overthrown? That might have really put the "stick" to them. Oh, right: the world's largest proven oil reserves. I guess the patriarchal misogynistic despots charge less for gas than Sunni fundamentalist theocrats. ;-)

They haven’t voted in a bunch of mullahs.

Riiiiiight.....

Iraqi politicans are not trying to legislate Sharia into law establish a constitutional theocracy.

Mmmm...kay...

Why not? Becuase the people of Iraq are not stupid. They see how badly the theocrats have screwed up the neighboring countries of Saudi Arabia and Iran. Besides, they know that the theocrats are not about religion, they are about power. The Iraqis know a would-be dictator when they see one.

Let's hope so. For the sake of the Iraqis.

For a laugh ...

A post from a stock board:

CIA agent just on Headline News
13-Jul-06 09:26 pm
Stated if a war in the middle east broke out between Iran, Isreal and America it could push crude to 300-400 a barrel with gasoline hitting $20 a gallon. Also talked about China and Russia joining the war which could eventually lead to armageddon.

I want to go down banging a girl doggiestyle with a 1/5 of vodka in my system.

One reply:

CIA agents should not masturbate in public. It's unseemly. You, however, should go ahead and bang the girl. You don't need the vodka :o).

Another reply from realfoxiegirl:

can't wait NOT to be in the socket end of that ride . . .. euro

How about this for a thread topic.

Total revenues from real estate transactions in the first half of 2006 down ? billion compared with the first half of 2005.

Who is feeling the pain of reduced revenues? How much pain are real estate agents, title companies, banks, brokers, and local governments from reduced transfer taxes, etc., feeling from the lower number of sales? With many markets sales down 30, 40, 50% over last year at this time, there must be a word of hurt out there.

SP Says:

Many of the threads (financing, etc.) led straight back to Karachi, Pakistan.

And America calls Pakistan’s military dictator an ‘ally’, cozies up to the Saudi royals - and decides to bring freedom to Iraq by toppling a secular, non-islamic government. Exactly how this enhances Joe Schmoe’s security is beyond my grasp.

I suspect the reasons are much deeper than we know of. Recall that Pakistan is China's close ally. It makes sense for US to cozy up to them.

US always has trouble with populist governments. If the Saudis royals are toppled, a populist government (either democratic or fundamentalist) is likely to be the successor. This will be a difficult situation for US.

You can accuse US of dirty dealings with bad guys. But every other power or super-power-to-be does the same.

Funny. Crude up. Gold up. Dollar also up. Peter P is probably right. Money is fleeing into safe havens (gold and dollar).

You can accuse US of dirty dealings with bad guys. But every other power or super-power-to-be does the same.

up to a point. they also assassinate or undermine democratically elected leaders when it suits crony business interests, e.g. in south and central america, in order to instate 'bad guys' i.e. right wing despots. it's all in day's work...

unfortunately it's all covered with a veneer of sugar and empty rhetoric and moral high-grounding (the stuff that people know about), fooling most of the people most of the time...

Governor Conan Says:
Funny. Crude up. Gold up. Dollar also up. Peter P is probably right. Money is fleeing into safe havens (gold and dollar).

this is the classic 8-12 year Juglar 'business cycle'. cash -> shares -> property -> cash... what a surprise, the cycle's turned again, for the hundredth time...

well said, SP. someone here with a brain...

one rumour was that bin laden had died in 2001 in afghanistan, either from kidney failure or from a missile strike. i still view videos and 'audio from bin laden' with extreme suspicion. the US needs and wants an emanuel goldstein. further, i wonder how many of the western bombings are false flag operations, inside jobs, etc. there have been reports that some of the worst terrorist acts of the last several decades were engineered by infiltrators from the govts themselves...

I can see how this fits 94-2006. But the last (late) stock boom really started in the early 80's. How do you explain this?

speedingpullet Says:
...promoting airy-fairy concepts like Democracy and Freedom.

No, Im not comparing the Iraq war to the Viet Nam one. But its interesting, with VNW documentary fairly fresh in my mind, that the rhetoric used to justify it hasn’t changed much in the intervening years.

that's absolutely right. i see the rhetoric as an outsider. and each time, australia has been pulled into the conflagration as a marginal ally, and gone along for the ride usually with relatively minor casualties.

there is an incredible amount of continuity and consistency in the bullshit rhetoric and hidden agendas over the decades post WWII, ever since people like robert macnamara and henry kissinger got going. mainly repub govts, i think, correct me if i'm wrong...

if you look at how the UN pulled out very early from the East Timor independence, leaving them battling to form a stable govt, following the reversal of the Indonesion invasion in the 70s, and the way the US insists on staying in iraq 'even if it takes years' as rummy says, it's very obvious they are only about getting their hands on resources, forget all the democracy bullshit. the US and Oz have appeased indonesia for decades, preferring to install right wing crony capitalists, despots and imperialists as a supposed 'dam against communism' rather than let the commie menace take over, regardless of whether that would happen or not. so much for self-determination. they still appease them today, and are happy to recognise their annexation of half of new guinea...

I can see how this fits 94-2006. But the last (late) stock boom really started in the early 80’s. How do you explain this?

i believe there's been an extra long run on property. which questions the 'cycle' premise a little, but there you have it. stock run from 80-87, followed by the 87 crash and flight to property. my argument here is that property was bullish from 88-06, i.e. an 18 year run, with a lull just in around 1990-94, where maybe cash became ascendant. there really seems to be a flipping process, where when one market gets played out, people start looking for other places to plough their money, so it can only be one of commodities, shares (production, IP), cash or property. so no guarantee of religious cycling from one investment vehicle to the next, nor an exact timeframe, it's just the one that looks most undervalued. i think it's all a bit evil...

Did you mean one phase in the cycle lasts 8-12 years? I might have misunderstood. I thought 8-12 years include all phases.

Another quote from Newmont board:

Lil' Kim should have been made FRB Chairman since he prints more money than we do.

Hey all,

my long-delayed affordabiility based analysis -- the one that predicts declines as much as 75-80% -- will be ready today. This afternoon, west coast time.

Please rip it to shreds!

Did you mean one phase in the cycle lasts 8-12 years? I might have misunderstood. I thought 8-12 years include all phases.

each phase of the juglar cycle lasts 7-11 years -- except when it's 18... juglar cycles, elliott waves and kondriateff waves can all be contested tho...

as enumerated by joseph schumpeter:

Traditional business cycle models

In the Juglar cycle, which is sometimes called "the" business cycle, recovery and prosperity are associated with increases in productivity, consumer confidence, aggregate demand, and prices. In the cycles before World War II or that of the late 1990s in the United States, the growth periods usually ended with the failure of speculative investments built on a bubble of confidence that bursts or deflates.

Up in Arms,

Nice Work!

I particularly liked the Sign Spinner interviews! Will visit often as I have a friend that recently sold in Perris. He'd bought 6 or 7 years ago to have it as a place to raise his kids (not an investment). The flippers that bought it were so eager they asked if he could move his remaining stuff in the garage so they could "paint it out" even before actual closing. Last I checked it's still available. He's in Vegas and he calls me on his cell phone from his rented condo-tel! A narrow escape.

Governor Conan Says:
July 13th, 2006 at 9:42 pm
SpeedingPullet (or Bullet?):

Speeding Pullet.
As in A Very Fast Young Female Chicken, from the french Poulet.
It seems to be a joke that works better in the UK, as more people over there know what a pullet is...

SQT Says:
July 13th, 2006 at 10:43 pm
Speedingpullet

Welcome to our humble blog.

Thank you!
I'll try not to track dirt into the house or break any furniture.

Speedingpullet,

No, not joking. I am a true blue (or is that true red) Bush voter, 100% in agreement with the administration's foreign policy.

But that's just politics. We may have our political differences, but we are all united in our view of the housing bubble, flippers, loose lending standards, Realtors, etc.

Like you, I live in LA, in the San Gabriel Valley to be precise. I don't know of any local blogs, although the subject of SoCal comes up quite often in all of the housing bubble discussions.

Welcome! Hope you stay a while!

i believe there’s been an extra long run on property...my argument here is that property was bullish from 88-06, i.e. an 18 year run

Yes, I think there is a general consensus that RE has been a good place to park money, ever since that rally in the late 80's. Never mind the flat market from '90-95, it doesn't register on people's radar any more (if ever). That said, it's hard to figure out why people expected such incredible annual returns by 2000? Perhaps the tech bubble and RE industry cheerleading played a large role in psychology? People love hearing good news.

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