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…… back to housing


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2006 Jul 16, 11:59am   19,565 views  312 comments

by Peter P   ➕follow (2)   💰tip   ignore  

All right guys, let's talking about housing again.

How is inventory growing in your area of interest? How are prices responding to inventory? Any observation you would like to share?

#housing

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107   edvard   2006 Jul 17, 7:28am  

Green acres was stupid. Do you remember the opening sequence? The guy bouncing on the tractor seat? When I was a kid, I'd watch all those stupid shows: Gilligan's Island, the Brady Bunch. Hee-Haw, and three's company. But whenever I heard the theme music for Green Acres, it was off with the TV!

108   skibum   2006 Jul 17, 7:34am  

Yes, Green Acres was pretty lame. However, I think that's the subconscious dream of a lot of these "equity locusts" who specifically move to more rural locales in search of the bucolic idealized lifestyle and to escape the shoulder-to-shoulder crowds of the BA or LA, or wherever. Aren't Eddie Albert and Eva Gabor a 50's version of exactly this phenomenon? A rich NY lawyer and his wife move to the sticks and have a grand ole' time in Hooterville?

109   edvard   2006 Jul 17, 7:43am  

Skibum,
As someone who grew up in the sticks, I think the worst thing that people from NY, CA and other places will find and be sad about is that they'll have to entertain themselves. After moving to the BA, I found that people here seem to always HAVE to be doing something, whether it be drinking, going to some festival, eating out, or whatever. Hardly a spare minute is spent in the home because that's just lame.
Back home, we used to entertain ourselves for days on end. If that meant fixing a lawn mower, digging post holes, or blowing up firecrackers and drinking beer, then so be it. It also meant having grandma over for hamnburgers or swimming at the nearby man made lake.
People from NY would probably find any of the above activities utterly boring.

110   Joe Schmoe   2006 Jul 17, 7:50am  

I miss the winter, and snow, but I like California's endless sunshine.

111   edvard   2006 Jul 17, 7:54am  

RTTBA,
Me and my wife are pretty much the same. Most of our weekends are spent at the house. She does things like fix up old furniture and I work on mechanical things, lawn mowers, and stuff. We take bike rides to eat dinner from time to time. That's about it except the occasional trip to Auburn, CA. We're what many of our friends call boring, but we're also not broke either.
On the other hand, we don't have many friends either since most people we meet like to do stuff ALL THE TIME, so in many ways being a homebody has had a negative impact on our social lives. Oh well. One has to choose.

112   skibum   2006 Jul 17, 7:54am  

RTBA and Joe,
What, you don't like the sunshine? You two are not worthy to put yourselves into indentured servitude in order to "own" a glorified mobile home/crappy stucco s#%tbox, ie, "living the California lifestyle." Why don't you move out of the state and leave that privelege to us "natives?"

113   skibum   2006 Jul 17, 8:06am  

RTBA,
Check out Mt. Hood - the skiing's not bad there. Timberline Lodge is beautiful.

114   DinOR   2006 Jul 17, 8:13am  

The issue that I have with Mrs. DinOR sounds similar. We have so few nice days from start to finish and they are precious to me but she's content milling about at Target or where ever. How much could it have changed in a week? Secondly, I must admit that we have AT LEAST 9 months of "perfect" shopping weather here in Oregon! You'd think she'd have her fill of that with a 3 to 1 ratio advantage wouldn't you? She's pretty sneaky about it too.

"I just have one thing at one store that I need to return" becomes 3 hours of shopping! When it's 40 degrees and raining sideways, well who cares! But when it's 80 and perfect?

115   DinOR   2006 Jul 17, 8:22am  

On being "self entertained".

Why is it that we now need endless "festivals" all summer long? There isn't ONE solitary weekend where some damn town doesn't have a tulip, strawberry or hop festival! And they're all the damn same! Been to one you've been to them all.

Could we please have ONE weekend out of the whole damn summer where there isn't an "event"? I mean the calendar is SO crowded with everything from "Pet Parades" to "farmer's market" etc. etc. And Portland? The worst! From Cinco De Mayo up to and through damned October. And for every one that you actually attend (and burn through on avg. $60 to $100) there are four that you missed. It's like they're setting us up for dissapointment for crissakes. "You mean you DIDN'T go to the Cheese Curd Festival"? NO! I f'ing didn't! I heard they had a crash at the "Rose Festival" Airshow. Maybe if they didn't have a damn "airshow" that man would still be alive today! Stop the insanity!

116   DinOR   2006 Jul 17, 8:27am  

Michael Anderson,

Thanks for the Bend update. Bend has so many freaking festivals it's ridiculous. The Source Weekly did a great piece about a year ago about "What is it exactly we're celebrating again". Totally funny, totally on target. I want to drop agent orange on the Dhalia Festival!

117   DinOR   2006 Jul 17, 8:29am  

They still have homes in Bend for under 500K?

You know Michael I have a good friend that has a modest vacation home out in Joseph and he and always ask "Why Bend"? What makes Bend so attractive? Is it any nicer or better than any of the other dozens of towns scattered throughout central Oregon?

118   GallopingCheetah   2006 Jul 17, 8:33am  

Here's my idea of self entertaining for people aged 30 and above: Fishing. It's a life-long karma training. I don't fish but expect to get into it.

My only concern, from reading washington's fly fishing board, is that one may meet some crazy people (i.e., meth heads) while fishing. There was a debate whether one should carry while fishing. Many actually confirm that they carry. I am for gun ownership. But having to carry while fishing is a little disconcerting.

119   HARM   2006 Jul 17, 8:36am  

Until you secede from the US and impose strict immigration standards (turn the PNW into Switzerland, for example), it is difficult to stem the tide of migration.

This observation reminded me of a conversation I had with my wife back in the mid-90s, right after Prop. 187 passed (the initiative to deny most non-emergency social services to illegals). We observed it passing with a 2/3rds popular majority, including hispanic voters (something the "objective" media here rarely mentions, btw). We then watched in disgust as an unholy coalition of liberal extremists, Aztlan/MEChA supporters and big-agriculture/big-construction/big-hotels united to "defeat" it by gutting it in court.

As I recall, I basically said something like this: "You know what? Nothing is ever going to be done about illegal immigration as long as two things are true: (1) non-border states view illegal immigration as a "border-state" issue that does not affect them personally, and (2) the MSM keeps framing it as a purely racial issue and not an economic one. If we ever get to the point where there is a significant out-migration of illegals to the other states, this may change on the national level. When California has an overwhelming hispanic majority that is equally fed up with being overrun and taxed to death for "free" hand-outs to illegals, things may even change here.

I think we're about at that point now.

120   edvard   2006 Jul 17, 8:37am  

I bet that wine and art festival is the same stupid one that winds up in Alameda. There are the same people setting up there: Little arts and crafts vendors along with crappy match-your-couch- paintings, big black and white photos, the caramel corn stand, and this guy that drives around in a van making signs for your house writing your name with a router.

121   GallopingCheetah   2006 Jul 17, 8:38am  

DinOr, everything today is so organized and smacks of certain pretension. I don't even like soccer leagues. When I was a kid in Shanghai, even though I was on the school team, I rather enjoyed soccer games with my classmates in the neighborehood (between buildings). All the fun activities were unorganized. And we really had great childhood. These days, freaking everything was organized and scores kept by parents, in both US and China.

I remember seeing a satirical (spelling) essay on line a few years ago. It was about how the older generation survived without any organized fairs, sports, and parental protection. One line read (vaguely), "We rode bikes without helmets, but we survived." Has anybody seen this one?

122   GallopingCheetah   2006 Jul 17, 8:42am  

RTBA, I'll probably opt for catch&release, too. But I wouldn't mind catching a fat salmon n Lake Washington from time to time, slice it and bake it! It's not easy to do. I've been having a lot of Yukon River salmon last couple of weeks. Great stuff.

123   Peter P   2006 Jul 17, 8:45am  

Nothing is ever going to be done about illegal immigration as long as two things are true: (1) non-border states view illegal immigration as a “border-state” issue that does not affect them personally, and (2) the MSM keeps framing it as a purely racial issue and not an economic one.

These will help too:

1) Guest worker program is implemented
2) Minimum wage is pegged to $0.00 by a constitutional amendment
3) Welfare system is replaced by a pay-as-you-go system with tax credit

124   HARM   2006 Jul 17, 8:45am  

Could we please have ONE weekend out of the whole damn summer where there isn’t an “event”?

LOL --great rant. DinOR, I nominate you to be the official blog curmudgeon!

125   HARM   2006 Jul 17, 8:50am  

@Peter P, I'm not 100% convinced about the guest worker program, but your other 2 proposals are fine by me. Personally, I'd rather we just raise the regular immigration quotas than go that route. "Guest worker" to me basically means "legal slave", or "documented transient". I'd rather have people who wish to stay here permanently, and therefore have a stake in THIS country than more people with divided loyalties who could give a rat's ass about the U.S.

126   Peter P   2006 Jul 17, 8:56am  

I’d rather have people who wish to stay here permanently, and therefore have a stake in THIS country than more people with divided loyalties who could give a rat’s ass about the U.S.

True.

I’m not 100% convinced about the guest worker program

It is a just lesser evil.

It is better than silently tolerating illegal immigration. If there must be an "underground" economy we should open it up to everyone. Businesses should not be denied cheap labor simply because they choose to obey the law.

Also, if (2) and (3) are implemented (1) will no longer be needed over time.

127   HARM   2006 Jul 17, 8:57am  

I say we throw DinOR a parade. Are there any days open for it?

I'm envisioning an anti-festival float in DinOR's honor, featuring him in a rolling barcalounger, with a beer in one hand and an extended middle finger on the other --pointed right at the adoring crowd.

128   Peter P   2006 Jul 17, 8:59am  

BTW, pegging minimum wage to inflation is the best recipe for stagflation. IF we must have a minimum wage it should be INVERSELY pegged to the CPI.

129   HARM   2006 Jul 17, 8:59am  

Also, if (2) and (3) are implemented (1) will no longer be needed over time.

True. When economic incentives are aligned with the law, the problem should take care of itself.

130   GallopingCheetah   2006 Jul 17, 9:03am  

RTBA, not at all. Well understood. I am eyeing the Orvis fly-fishing school in Coeur D'Alene. But I have to wait to see how much bonus and raise I am getting this year. It also depends on the gold & silver market. If the market sours, I'll be in really bad mood to do anything. Please buy MSFT stock. Thank you.

131   Peter P   2006 Jul 17, 9:03am  

True. When economic incentives are aligned with the law, the problem should take care of itself.

Exactly.

132   Peter P   2006 Jul 17, 9:06am  

We cannot fight human nature. We can only use greed and fear to fight other undesirable human emotions.

133   HARM   2006 Jul 17, 9:08am  

Hey, OT, but I just used a nice piece of information to my advantage at my local credit union. I came in "armed" with my TreasuryDirect & Bankrate.com rate quotes in hand and was able to negotiate my CD up .84%. Until someone here (or perhaps it was Ben's blog?) mentioned this technique, I had always assumed that CD rates were pretty much non-negotiable.

134   GallopingCheetah   2006 Jul 17, 9:16am  

Correction: My stock pumping plea was not aimed RTBA. I just re-read it. The line could be mis-read. The message was intended for every one here. Thank you all.

135   GallopingCheetah   2006 Jul 17, 9:24am  

skibum, thanks for the link. Very interesting place. Never been to SC. Heard from a men's clothing forum that Charlston is very, very nice.

136   Different Sean   2006 Jul 17, 11:28am  

We cannot fight human nature. We can only use greed and fear to fight other undesirable human emotions.

Don't we fight it all the time? It's called sociali sation, and it starts from birth...

137   Peter P   2006 Jul 17, 11:38am  

Don’t we fight it all the time? It’s called sociali sation, and it starts from birth…

Huh? Fighting human nature is futile.

138   Peter P   2006 Jul 17, 11:46am  

I actually had a realtor tell me “creative financing” is a great match becuase I create music. You know, I appreciate “creativity.”

Huh? So if I trade options I must get an Option ARM?

139   astrid   2006 Jul 17, 12:19pm  

ptiemann,

I did a comment search and these two seem most promising

http://patrick.net/wp/?p=133

http://patrick.net/wp/?p=202

More generally, has that person tried to done test commutes between those two points?

I don't have anything bad to say about the Tri-Valley area, it's pretty safe and convenient. But it's also pretty dead after dark and rather generic/pricy.

The other thing is buying any new construction. Boom times tend to have many rush jobs and poor quality construction. We also had an extremely wet spring, so that might also affect the quality of construction started this spring.

140   frank649   2006 Jul 17, 12:31pm  

Journalists for this rag are usually in bubble denial. This article is a change...

http://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-sandiego17jul17,1,3836789.story?coll=la-headlines-business&ctrack=1&cset=true

141   Peter P   2006 Jul 17, 12:54pm  

I try to convince someone NOT to buy a new SFR in San Ramon, at least not at this time. I looked through old posts (using Google site search) but could not find the right threads.

Well, if he likes San Ramon and can afford it, knowing that future appreciation is uncertain, why not?

Can someone or more than one person please give some reasons why someone with a job in Redwood City should not buy in San Ramon?

I work in Palo Alto (may be able to telecommute) and at a point I was looking in Marin county.

I think you should ask your friend why he wants to buy in San Ramon. There are right answers and wrong answers.

Right answers:

1. like the neighborhood/environment
2. good feng shui
3. can mostly telecommute

Wrong answers:

1. appreciation potential
2. do not mind long commute

Anyway, San Ramon to Redwood City is a very long and ugly commute, especially if he has "regular" hours.

142   Peter P   2006 Jul 17, 1:54pm  

$30K? Sorry, I do not want Permanent Head Damage.

143   Peter P   2006 Jul 17, 1:58pm  

Sorry, I have to edit your comment. It did not include the requsite disclaimer. CFTC is quite strict about that.

You really need a whole page of disclaimer like this:

http://www.circularlogic.com/disclaimer.html

144   Peter P   2006 Jul 17, 2:18pm  

Just to clarity... Peter P is not the same as Peter (ptiemann).

145   astrid   2006 Jul 17, 2:23pm  

Also, what is your friend planning to do with his original home. A comparatively safer strategy would be if he plan to sell before committing himself to a contract in San Ramon.

Since San Ramon is not usually considered "core" BA, another is how your friend would weather price drops. Ask him to run thru scenarios where he is forced to sell at 10%, 20%, and 30% off current prices. Also, how would he plan for a slow market where it takes 6 months or more to sell the property.

146   Different Sean   2006 Jul 17, 3:39pm  

Huh? Fighting human nature is futile.

is there a mathematical proof for that somewhere?

i suppose that's what they romans said as they set up gladiatorial contests: "we can't help being bloodthirsty, man will keep killing people for sport forever... best just to go with our instincts... it's human nature, after all..."

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