patrick.net

SHTF,

Texas and TN both have extremely high foreclosure rates. TX has also seen an influx of West Coast money that's spurring new construction, which is uninhibited by NIMBYism and zoning problems. I don't think they'll see the sort of declines we're beginning to see in FL, AZ, NV, and Central Valley. But I definitely think declines are possible.

If moving there makes you happy and saves you money, so for it. But I'd suggest renting for a little while (ought to be easy with so many CA flippers around) and checking out the scene before buying anything. Just because those places look cheap in California does not mean the locals think they're good values.

Astrid,
The plan is to " wait and see". Like many of you here, I am hoping for the best possible scenario: an implosion of the bubble at which point I would consider staying. As for the comments above about the " deserving middle class", I see this every single day; the young guy in the Audi, or the construction worker in a 50k truck. Even my dad recently told me that there is a rather large increase in people in Nashville driving luxo-european cars, all thanks to leasing options.
There has never been a society in the history of the modern world that has has any long-standing sucess without a healthy middle class. Research shows that up to 75% of the population will be urban within 20 years. If that's so and ALL cities eventually become little san francisco's, then that doesn't bode very well. The middle class is a guage for the sucess of this country, and they ain't doing so hot these days.

Yeah, I think I mentioned it on here a few days ago...the amazing waste that seems to be almost standard over here in the USA. It came a quite a shock to me when I first came over here

Not saying that the UK doesn't have its Bling-Lovers, but on the whole everything is smaller and more cost/effective/environmentally friendly. Then again, gas in the UK has been over $5 a gallon for over a decade now, so people have learned to live without SUVs...

LILLL,
That's very well put. You remind us that what's missing in this whole RE mania picture is any shred of common sense.

Lefantome Says:...

Well put mate :-)

I guess years of people being panicked into buying is going to take a little bit of time to correct.

Being a native born california it was hard to leaving my family and entire support base. I got divorced in 2000, shortly after this madness with prices started. I had about 50k in savings by 2002 that wouldn't be a down payment on a dumpster. I hadn't had a raise in six years meanwhile everything shot up my health insurance , gas, food, and rent. I hoped for a bubble burst and crash but it didn't start in earnest until after I got here in SC.

Will I stay in the south? Probably not but I can't return to california unless I am rich which I'll never be. I never thought I'd have to make this choice in my adult life. Single and one income can't survive there anymore it's been a sobering life lession that has changed my outlook on life forever. I lost alot first with a divorce then the economy and housing changing and not in my favor. It sucks I'm stil sitting on the money but it probably won't help presently. I'm feeling very defeated even with CNN droning in the background seems the world is falling apart. Conflict and economic uncertainty possible ressession? Maybe it's not my fate to ever have a home. Makes me wonder...

Yes it's affordable but I have only a year on my employment contract and no guarentees after that. My place here is a 1350 sq ft 3 yr new condo that is only $695 amonth. In So Cal it would easily be $2200 which I'd never pay I only made about 40k which is poverty in so cal. You are correct I have to start and readjust my thinking. I guess you can say I can't get use to the cultural differences here. I don't like it enough here after seven months to invest in a home. I have moved four times in the last six years locally until Jan 06 when I moved across the country.
I hope eventually things stablelize enough for me to make a commitment somewhere. I guess the things you miss most like calling up a friend and stopping by for a beer aren't available to me anymore. I don't know a soul here.

Sylvie,

Hopefully you'll meet some people in SC. Whether you decide to stay or go, you'll have some friends in the meantime. Please keep us posted.

Now here's a nice t-shirt!

Sylvie,

You don't have to stay in US. You know, in other parts of the world, women really like down-to-earth American men. And the men like American women, to a lesser degree. (They detest American government. But that's a different story.) I am not native. But I've had my fair share of travel to see the attitude around the world.

allah Says:

Now here’s a nice t-shirt!

LoL!
The T-shirt bids at a cent but the Postage and Packing costs $18.95!

And its from San Diego!

What's the matter, noone wants the flipper course?

SFW,

That, is a complete sentence to today's Amerika. Only the premise (or audience), as indicated by IF, matters. Feel-good marketing.

Someone mentioned NYC earlier in this thread. Sigh. It's the only place I consider a real city in US of A. My only regret: I don't really have a feel for the financial industry.

Someone complained about the quality of women in Portland. Last time when I was there, the quality of OK. I was there once for a sailing course on the Columbia River. I took the evening off and attended the wine-tasting festival near the university. Very nice environ. Met a pretty girl. But, she's too lefty for me.

But hands down, the Northeast is endowed with feminine beauty. The wholesome kind. NYC is endowned with the equisite kind (as Stockholm). I actually don't have very high regard for women in BA when I was there in summer '94. LA might be very different.

I forgot to mention Boston. Near BU. Yes.

If you like Asian girls, Shanghai is good. I was there last year, it was amazing that the whole place was so ... European.

I think the entire Shanghai region (with 2-3 surrounding provinces) should declare independence, with the aid the US, the Europe and possibly Japan.

There’s very little social awareness in my age group. It’s “I gotta get mine, I gotta get paid and screw everyone else”. They teach the mantra that you need an “inside track” to make money and regular jobs are for idiots.

A nation devouring itself. That's what triggered the Communist Revolution in China...

There’s also less faith in government than ever. Is this stuff justified? Is it just bitterness and laziness? The truth probably lies somewhere in the middle, and it’s besides the point. A moral argument is beside the point. It’s the mentality at play as I see it and how it affects their judgement.

I think there IS a moral argument to be made about a decent social settlement, where if you work a regular job you should be rewarded with a regular house and the social security it brings. As you say, life in American is increasingly being constructed as trying to 'win the lottery' and as a giant Ponzi scheme in all areas, not just housing -- 'Get rich or die trying'. Further, that sort of attitude is not going to help the planet re sustainability issues when everything has got to be bigger than the neighbours -- all of life is seen as a purely social construction of trying to outdo the next guy, to meet your own unreflected esteem needs, and in terms of trading value and social status markers in dollars, with the underlying unquestioned belief that the resources behind it are infinite, when in fact they're not.

Good post...

SFW,

I should visit Iceland.

SFW,

regarding the thinness of les filles parisiannes, you are correct. On average, they are thinner than women I've seen elsewhere. (never been to Africa, so cannot comment.) I once was seated next to four beautiful french girls at a parisian cafe -- thanks to the kind waiter -- the girl opposite to me was so thin that I was completely befuddled. At the same cafe the other time, I saw a french guy dating two french women. One of them is the epitome of pencil-thin body, if there is a term for it. It's just unhealthy. Generally speaking, very thin women just turn me off.

Somewhere I read that the french women feel the pressure from their men to stay very thin. This is just sickening.

SFWoman,

I've never been to Iceland and I'm not even sure I've ever met an Icelander, but from photographs the women all look very similar, with wide, child-like faces. I like the Slavic face, the young women look ethereal to me.

GC,

I don't find Shanghai women all that impressive looking. You get a wide variety of women from all over, but overall, I'm not very impressed with the girls I see on the streets. The city girls are very high maintenance.

I find the girls from some parts of southern Anhui and Jiangxi to be quite exquisite. And they tend to keep their looks and stay young looking well into their thirties and even forties. Some girls from the north (I have seen a couple very pretty second cousins from Shandong) are also pretty, but their features tend to coarsen up a bit as they age.

good posts, le fantome...

skibum: with that title, you need to write a book: The Blinging of America
- How affluenza infected the American people and what to do about it...

would it sell as well as that current mega-title 'Godless: The Church of Liberalism', i wonder?

SQT,

Naturalness is to my liking. Extreme thinness conveys a strange sense of exquisitness in an overwrought culture (or civilization). When a society is in ascendency, wholesomeness tends to be exalted. Think both the male and female figures in Rubens' paintings, the paintings from Tang Dynasty (China) and photos of society women in 1900 (US of A).

Astrid,

Agreed. I was in Anhui last year, attending an MSR Asia retreat in Yellow Mountain. Quite impressed by the women staff at the resort. One night, I came back from the feast and went to the hotel bar. Had a great chat with the bartenderess. Was interrupted by two western researchers (from MSR-A) who demanded drinks even though it was after hours. I had to politely tell them to go elsewhere. I was tempted. But she was married with a son and a stay-home husband. So ... I actually enjoy talking with sensible women without any pressure for marriage shit. One learns much about their perspectives on things, especially on us men.

Anyway, you are almost correct. But in Shanghai, there's something extra to the physical appearance. The culture (the old one) adds to the allure of a woman. It is the same in Paris. Women in Southern France are arguably better looking. But Parisianne women have a different air about them.

But the high maintenance and fickleness (and other things, fill in the blank) in Shanghainess women could be davastating. I once had to flee the city during a springbreak to check out fresh meadows in the countryside of Hangchow. But I was disappointed.

But, it's a good place to start, especially for westerners.

Beijing (Peking) is very nice. I was quite impressed by the new night club district (around the lakes) and the girls I saw on my last night out with my Shanghai buddies. I commented to them how nicer Beijing is than our previous prejudices. They agreed. Had I stayed longer, I'd date a girl there. But then again, one has to be careful. She may just want to come to US of A.

I would love a non-US woman who tries to convince me to emigrate instead of the usual other way around.

Does anyone listen to E. F. any more?

I am not such a clever one
About the latest fads
I admit I was never one
Adored by local lads

Not that I ever try to be a saint
I'm the type that they classify as quaint

I'm old fashioned
I love the moonlight
I love the old fashioned things

The sound of rain
Upon a window pane
The starry song that April sings

This year's fancies
Are passing fancies
But sighing sighs holding hands
These my heart understands

I know I'm old fashioned
But I don't mind it
That's how I want to be
As long as you agree
To stay old fashioned with me

(bridge)

I'm old fashioned
But I don't mind it
That's how I want to be
As long as you agree
To stay old fashioned with me

Oh won't you stay old fashioned with me
Oh please stay old fashioned with me

CG,

Well, they say Suchow and Hangchow (huh? I'm kind of surprising you switched to Wade Giles) women are the epitomy of femininity in China, but quite average looking.

I find physically frail women come into vogue when the men in a society feel threatened; they use thinness to cultivate an aura of female vulnerability and help the male self esteem. It's just like foot binding. Also like foot binding, this society fetishizes thinness and ignore other physical attractions - so a beautiful full figured girl is considered less desireable than a more plain stick figure.

Rail thinness is coming into vogue in Shanghai(I understand it's very fashionable in Taiwan and Hong Kong), but it's still not mainstream. Most of the girls are actually quite fit because they walk and bike so much and can't afford high fat, high sugar western style snack foods.

The hottest women I have ever met were two girls from South Africa. They had the fine facial features of models, the buxom seductiveness of a woman you want to sleep with, and also glowed with athleticism and health. Incredible.

They were like a cross between the idealized Bavaran beauties in a Leni Reifenstahl movie, but without any of the cookie-cutter creepiness, Daisy Duke, and a girl on the cover of Vogue. Damn.

The women I met weren't in the fashion industry or anything; they were just regular women here on vacation. But I've never met anyone more beautiful.

I'd also like to give a shot out to the corn-fed beauties of my native Midwest. A lot of them tend to pack on the pounds after marriage and children, it's true, but many remain attractive.

Midwestern women also have a fashion sense (or a lack thereof) that prevents them from disguising their wholesome beauty. During the "grunge" era of the 90's, you'd see a lot of young women walking around in Doc Maartens, baggy jeans, sweatshirts, and facial piercings. They may have been beautiful undneath all of that shapeless fabric and metal, but it was almost impossible for the casual observer to tell. But the women of the Midwest never made that mistake, they eschewed those hideous outfits for more traditional fashions that emphasized their feminine beauty.

Thanks all, I didn't mean to to sound whiney or defeatist. It's hard making the nesessary adjustments anywhere. I have been to Charleston and Savannah since I've been here. Both rich in history and culture but those area cost as much or more than california. In fact just about all of the southern coastal areas require big bucks.

I've found that southerners have some pre-concieved notions about us west coasters (not always good). They are very old money and family history is everything. It's more your family name that makes you somebody here. If you are from somewhere else you're an outsider. It's kinda Mayberry everyone knows everything about everyone. That can be good or bad depending on who you are.

The churchy people rule.. even to the state goverment they have laws about what you can or cannot buy on Sundays. You can't buy booze except by state run stores and not at all on Sunday. More churches per sq. city block than I've eve seen in my life. Yeah it's different.. The most surprizing thing is alot of illegals have migrated here. Business is only to happy to use slave labor here as well. I think that problem we have in cali is being exported throughout this country. Hey Muggy I own my car outright and only have about 7k in total debt. I can't afford health insurance anymore that scares me cause I'm in my 40's. My boyfriend can't find a decent paying job here so we are thinking maybe another 4-6 months then we pull up stakes again. I don't think my company is going to commit to offering a stable situation. IT's that whole outsider thing I feel.

I was hired to open a second location for an established AGS jewelry store. I've got 16 years in the business and am almost done with my Gemologist credentials. I thank ll of you for your insight and input.

Sylvie

"Churchy people rule"

Sylvie, Oregon is anything but "churchy" and we've had state run booze barns for years. Up until very recently you couldn't get a fifth on Sunday. For years they closed at 6:00pm on SATURDAY and didn't reopen until Monday at 11:00am. Not out of any respect for "the big guy" but b/c everyone in Oregon knows that "where there's dope, there's hope", where there's booze you lose"! Pot is a misdemeanor here but we've consistently had some of the LOWEST B.A.C in the union! Now the OLCC (Oregon Liquor Control Commission) is taking their show to the rivers and lakes and they have found an entirely NEW source of revenue!

It's the season so it may now be appropriate to comment on something that is almost taboo in Oregon (as well as other states).

Michael Anderson and I discussed the alcohol ban on the Deschutes River as it comes through Bend. Lots of politics (and plenty of BS).

We have many "alcohol related" summer time incidents here in OR. Let's look at things a little closer.

Joe Dickhead does a swan dive off a 40' cliff into a swift and swollen Clackamas River. Joe isn't found until three weeks later by dentist fly fishing downstream. Joe's friends claim that Joe was "drinking heavily" that day. (What Joe's "friends" neglect to mention is that he'd been up for 72 hours on a meth binge, smoked an entire baggie of refer and the only alcohol he'd actually used was to wash down some "shrooms" JUST before the fatal plunge! Are any of us naive enough to think that Joe's "friends" are stupid enough to "cop" to any of that? And so it is recorded as another senseless "alcohol related" death.

Lefantome,
You brought up something that I am doing as well: writing to local newspapers and various local leaders. Many people like to place the entire burdon of blame for the continous cycle of RE booms and bursts in California on prop 13 and low interest rates. But the truth is that during the early 70's, there was a fairly structured popular grass roots movement to "protect" California from overdevelopment. The movement swept throughout most of the state in the form of hundreds of local regulations. Here in Alameda, the legislation passed in 1973 was measure A, which made building multi family units illegal and basically brought building anything new to a screeching halt. The result was a vaccum that had the effect that is classic for california and it's roller coaster cycles.
I think it's about time for a new wave of grass roots movements to occur to reverse these policies. Therefore I have been writing to various local politicians and the local newspaper, of which the editor has actually been very open and agreeable to publishing some of the comments I've made. Our small city is also governed by various citizen voting groups, like the league of Alameda women voters. I have written to several of these groups as well.
In order to get things changed, things need to occur first at the local level.

Sylvie,
You're living in a specific location in a HUGE region that takes up almost 25% of the country.People incorrectly place the entire south into one generic lump.... then go on to compare this entire region to California. I'm a southern native and let me tell you that you should travel some more in the region. Coastal areas will always be more expensive. Diffrent regions in the south can be entirely diffrent. There is a lot of diversity. I have a friend that lives in Charleston. Indeed Charleston is diffrent from California, but it is also completely diffrent from North Carolina, Alabama, Arkansas, and Tennesee. Even diffrent parts of diffrent states are totally diffrent. My home state, TN has three vastly diffrent regions. East TN is in the mountains and has small mountain cities like Knoxville. Middle TN is on a plateau and is where Nashville is located, which is an entirely diffrent culture from East TN. West TN is in the river delta, warmer, and has Memphis, which in my opinion could be the sister city to Oakland.
What's more is that most of the areas not on the coast are about 5 times cheaper than the areas you've investigated. Homes in East TN are still easily found for way under 100k. Homes even in popular cities like memphis are in the 120-150k range, and some of the quaint small towns in the Blue Ridge Parkway in NC can be had for about the same.
Again- I'm amazed that people from California- a state that's supposed to be progressive thinking have such a big problem with people that are religious. It's not like they're going to jump you and MAKE you believe what they want you to believe. I hear this from almost every single person who isn't from the region. yet I can live here and listen to liberals, Hindus, Jews, Catholics, and yes- even Babtists discuss their beliefs and guess what? It's ok with me.

Michael Anderson,

The truth is that I can't swim either! However, I can tread water forever. Public pools in Chicago were so rare and so crowded that unless you joined a swim team it was more about jumping up and down an splashing other kids. I can "dog paddle" my way to shore though thank you. Rafting without a life vest (at any age) is risky at best.

In our neck of the woods, people were always having bad accidents involving boats. We had a bunch of man made lakes which were huge, as in over a mile across in some instances. Guys would get little speed boats and drop in a 350 Chevy engine. Those things would fly close to 100 MPH on the water. The most common accidents would be people having collisions. There are no speed limits, and you CAN drink as well. That's asking for trouble.

SFWoman,

I'm 5' 10" and I weigh TWO twenty six! AND I walk every where I go too! Perhaps it's your discipline in refraining from that "second" twelve pack that is your secret?

SHTF,

Alcohol and boating don't mix. Period. I just wish you could see the level of harrassment here on the Columbia and Willamette Rivers on the weekend! 40 something couples done for the day and at anchor being hassled 2 and 3 times by different "agencies" it's just incredible. Here in Oregon there's no job like a state/county job and cruising the river all day and getting paid for it these guys are more than willing to "create" violations. It's so bad, people are staying off the rivers altogether.

That's interesting and surprizing. I knew about "herb" acceptance there that would never fly in the"bible belt".

I'm sure somewhere in the vastness that is this country there will a place that resonates with me. Until then, I'll travel around wherever I can find a job that pays decent.

Since we're on the subject, some of you might wonder where the term:" bible belt" came from. It came from a natural geological disaster in 1811. One of this country's biggest earthquakes ripped through TN, NC, GA, and LA. The quake was so large ir created a large lake in middle TN. Throughout the summer, there was a sucession of smaller quakes.
Prior to 1811, the south wasn't particularly religions.Many of the inhabitants had escaped Ireland, where religious persecution and heavy taxation given to the catholic church was fresh on their minds, thus religion wasn't a particular interest. There was so little relgion that parishes from the NE were concerened and made annual journeys to the region to " put the fear of god into the heathen immoral masses in the applachias."
The quake of 1811 created the perfect opportunity for preachers to set up small tents, known as revivals throughout the region. This practice still goes on today. They were sucessfull, and the heavily religious population that exsists there now is a direct result of this natural disaster.
Follow the locations of the largest bible publishing companies in the country and you can almost trace the fault line right under their foundations. The fault created a new "belt" over the top of an ancient one, hence the term " Bible belt" corrlates with this natural occurence.

I'll always keep one foot in the door as far as california. Wishful thinking maybe? If by some miraculous accident things are obtainable there again I'll defintely return. By the way I'm on EST on CNBC Bernake is on sweating bullets answering questions about this looming uncertainty\recession. It looks ominous

SFWoman Says:

> I find anorexic thinness disgusting and obesity disgusting.
> Both to me indicate an obsession with food in an extremely
> unhealthy way. When I lived in NY in the early 1980s about
> 1/4 of the women I knew had eating disorders (on the thin side)

In SF more than half the well educated single women I know have major food issues. Most women of European decent in their 20’s and 30’s would be a “little chunky” if they ate a normal healthy diet. These women realize that most well educated single guys don’t like “chunky gals” so they starve themselves to look hot in their $300 jeans and $1,000 ball gown. Men have been hard wired to be attracted to young thin fit females since we lived in caves so more a 32 year old gal looks like a super hot thin 19 year old the more she will get asked out (and the more a 32 year old looks like chunky 44 year old aunt Edna with her manicured nails the less she will get asked out).

> I went up to southern Oregon probably half the women I saw
> were significantly overweight. We went to the Shakespeare
> festival in Ashland, and I had several women sitting within a
> few seats of me who probably topped 300 lbs. They had coiffed
> hair and were wearing makeup and had manicures, but were
> probably slowly dying of congestive heart failure. Also, several
> of them ate Mentos throughout the plays. (I am going to start
> paying attention to who I see eating Mentos, it was peculiarly
> fascinating. Maybe they sold them in the shop or something.)

My Mom always told me about the connection between chunky ladies and manicured nails (sure there are exceptions, but generally the nicer the nails the fatter the lady) but I have never heard that mentos are the snack of choice for chunksters…

We live in a time of plenty. It’s difficult to fast for even one day in our society. You can eat better now than ever in the history of the world. The difference in the quality and variety of produce all year even since I was a kid is incredible.

Regarding America's weight problem, what I find interesting is that study after study has shown that obesity is highly correlated with poverty. Contrary to the idea of abundance of food in the US, it seems obesity is more likely a consequence of food choices and availability. Notice how many more fast food restaurants there are in poorer locales. Also, walk down the "middle aisles" of a Whole Foods vs. Cala Foods. The amount of unhealthy prepackaged, partially hydrogenated, fructose corn syrup crap in the latter is astounding. But even in these stores, one can eat better by avoiding that crap. However, most Americans choose to go with the prepackaged crap.