patrick.net

SHTF,

I've seen much of what you describe here in Oregon. Either frantic efforts to get the property "saleable" in short order or a sudden indifference b/c the "hot" spring selling season has fizzled. Many that had been previously frantic are now indifferent. Any way you slice it they are NOT moving!

Our realtor neighbor in our condo complex seems to be "taking some time off" or "pursuing other interests" but of the 147 properties sold YTD only a handful appear to be SFH. The majority where either mobiles, smallish apt. complexes and lots. Many of the "transactions" were done at nominal costs among family members or relatives. Buyers seem to have NO sense of urgency and the quiet is deafening.

Hey Gov,
I can live in either place: Liberal paradise or bible-thumping land. I think what bothers me a lot about people that identify their entire lifestyle to being liberal is that they assume that liberalism automatically equates to a better quality of life. Perhaps if your only concern is to be around people who act-think-believe as you do, and ignore the crappy schools, unaffordable housing, traffic, and other life-wasting crap that exsists here, then the definition of quality of life is a very flexible term.
I'd rather live next door to Bill the Bush supporter in my own fully paid off home, with a stable job and decent school system than to George the Prius driver in an overpriced rental or crappy home with bars for windows in west oakland.

SHTF, That's right.

I believe the money from sold RE is flowing (or at least is expected to flow)) into the Seattle Area, judging by the frantic constructions throughout this area.

A colleague told me that his secretary had recently made half a mil -- or perhaps a quarter mil, my memory is fading -- by flipping a high-end condo in downtown Bellevue. She bought the place before construction and sold it before it was fully built. That's 100% gain in less than a year.

It is ridiculous. We could actually devote a whole thread to realtwhore talk. “Cozy” and “charming” actually mean tiny and cramped. And “light fixer” means falling down.

Actually, we already did:
Favorite Realt-whore Cliches
http://patrick.net/wp/?p=176

Here's a local update from our area of interest, Palo Alto/Portola Valley/Woodside. NOTHING is happening. Same number of listings in each city, apparently nothing has gone under contract, and very little price reduction. Days on market continue to grow and grow. The only perceptible change is a few new places come on the market, and a few places get taken off the market. What ever happened to the "spring selling season?"

We did go to a couple of open houses in PA in the $1.8M-2.5M range. One realtor was particularly "forthcoming," acknowledging that the market is pretty much dead right now. The "sweet spot" in price range in PA according to her is in the $1.3M-1.7M range, and even that is dead. Meanwhile, the places we saw were all either %100 staged or empty, and they are just sitting and sitting. I get the sense that sellers are about to blink in this staring contest.

So Jeff, what's your reading on the Bellevue/Kirkland market? One more year of growth?

I've been keeping an eye on Topanga (90290), because its a nice place to live, and up until now has been waaaay out of my price range.

Did a search on Zip this morning : no minimum, 2+bedrooms SFH, just for the hell of it.

In the Million+ zone, most houses have DOM at 100+ days, although only about half of them have had price reductions. Interestingly enough, a comparison with the listing price and it's Zestimate shows some places very overpriced, while some LP's are below Zestimates. Both seemed to be +or- 200K in either direction. I couldn't find any rhyme or reason to it, but then I only compared 3 or 4 places.

I guess, knowing Topanga's past history (its just down the road from Malibu, and much more secluded, being inland), that its going to take a lot longer for the shoe to drop.

I'd guess a lot of the more 'toney' places in L.A aren't going to see the kinds of price reductions that, say, Palms/Mar Vista are going to see. Excess wealth gives patience...;-)

Though, if anyone has any real data (as oposed to my anecdotal musings) on the pricey bits od L.A, I'd love to hear about it.

skibum, thanks for your update. Wow, even Palo Alto is dead.

Jeff, I hope your friend is wrong. But the Pacific Northwest is turning itself into another BA.

I despise the weather in the Bay Area. Portland is more my style. I like clouds. I like rain. I don’t like 90+ degree days. You get the idea.

Same. :)

But I cannot leave Bay Area's restaurants behind.

I second Peter P. You guys should really learn from Peter.

Jeff, I hope your friend is wrong. But the Pacific Northwest is turning itself into another BA.

The Pacific Northwest has 2 of the world's 10 richest persons.

The Bay Area has none.

Jeff, once the much rumored RIF in Windows becomes a reality, let us see how the RE market will respond. Besides, there's an impending recession on the horizon.

I second Peter P. You guys should really learn from Peter.

But I can move to B. and drive up to Vancouver for food every weekend. :)

Vancouver has all kinds of good food now, not only Asian food.

B. is my retirement place. (I hate to use the word retirement for reasons I pointed out before.) It's close to the San Juans, one of the world's premier cruising ground.

Let us delete (or at least modify) our posts regarding B. Too many people are reading this blog.

As far as " Nirvanas ruined by newcomers", I don't think this kind of shift in population has happened, at least in a very long time, if ever. The reason being is that as recently as the 1940's, MOST of this country's population lived in the Northeast. The South, midwest, and even West Coast with the exception of parts of California were not heavily populated. I'm only 30, and I can recall a time growing up in rural Tennesee when the roads around our house were unpaved. That says a lot about the state of an entire region in the not so distant past.
These less populated regions have suddenly come into the spotlight. Why? Because the lifestyle that we expect to be dropped in our laps is no longer possible in some areas like NY, CA, etc. The irony is that California was the prime destination of out of work migrant farmers from the depression era. They found a new life here and were able to carve out a lifestyle that became the envy of most countries- a middle class society. Now we find ourselves in the same situation but in reverse. We aren't farmers by any means, but we are now in a situation where we must find another means to live the lifestyle we want, and that means going to a diffrent state- mabe even some of the states that those migrant farmers left long ago.
Simply put, these "other" areas of the country were ignored and underutilized for decades. Now that everyone knows about them, they are going to have incredible growth. That's where I'm placing my bets. California will either have a rich person paradise where everyone- even the neighbors has a million bucks in the bank, or it will have a sagging depressed economy with a sea of non-working policies that caused the housing bubble to happen that will probably stick around for a few more decades, causing even more economic woes until the generation that founded them die out.
If you want to know where the future of the country lies, it isn't here. I'd say any number of midswestern and southern states will be taking up the slack for the next foreseeable future.

Returning to the BA,

Of course all our welcome to move to Portland and I believe you would like it. However just a few of the drawbacks are:

The weather, it's depressing not seeing the sun for 9 months and the older I get the faster the summers wizz by.

I'm told it's a terrible place to be single.

High state income taxes.

The weather.

Not nearly as good rest. as the BA.

People "think" this area is more prestigious than BA.

The weather.

HARM and I often kid that Portland is a great place. Just bring your job, spouse and plenty of money with you. Be prepared to get paid less (no matter what you do).

High state income taxes.

But no state sales tax. Solution: live in Vancouver, WA and shop across the border. :)

Great summary, DinOr, especially about the weather. I was going to say, the Weather, or more precisely, the long dark days. There's a reason why Starbucks was founded in Seattle. For those who love sunshine, PNW is going to depress you.

Portland has good beers, so said my home-brewer grad-school friend.

Seattle has a blue-collar, working-class root. I think the BA libs who want to move up here will be in for a shock. Better go somewhere else. I heard Minnesota is quite liberal, although the harsh winter is going to freeze your dog's dick dead if he decides to pee on the sidewalk.

s/dick dead/dick off/

I heard Minnesota is quite liberal, although the harsh winter is going to freeze your dog’s dick dead if he decides to pee on the sidewalk.

Is it true that liberals tend to be dog people while conservatives tend to be cat people? Just wondering.

Peter P,

You certainly wouldn't be the first to suggest and do exactly that! Then to go one better many apartment building complexes in Vancouver, WA have almost ALL OR Lic. plates b/c we charge $40 for two years. It also makes for a "big city" commute everyday coming south into Portland and then northbound at the end of the day. There are only a few square blocks out of all of Portland that are on a par with most other major cities. However, much of the balance of the city is unremarkable. IMO.

$40/twoyear is cheap. Up here, they charge me $150 a year. And then the sales tax. It's robbery.

Those are probably my biggest concerns. I dislike the greed and cramped feel of the Bay Area.

Bay Area is not cramped at all. In Tokyo, it is scary.

Returning to the BA,

Portland takes pains to remind everyone that he who develops last develops best. The city council is filled with self important dickheads that do exactly as they please (without respect to the voters).

But we still have "big city" style politics. Our former Chief of Police (pretty good guy) was dumped from office over a FIVE YEAR OLD AFFAIR w/former co-worker. The Chief had just gotten divorced and did a few dumb things. NOW 5 years later this comes up just as he is trying to get all of our poor former law enforcement officers OFF of disability and back on a desk job to save the city money! Funny how that came up just as he was trying to clean up a situation of people that "threw their back out" 5 or 10 years ago and are still collecting a FULL paycheck on disability! Anyone attempting to move to Portland b/c they think they will escape that brand of politics is kidding themselves. Sorry.

@Returning,

L.A. until I can make my own move to one of those nice mid-sized cities in either the Pacific NW or the South. Naturally, I will try to shut to shut the door behind me. :twisted:

I wonder if residents of these CA-exodus destinations will begin to organize their own "Minuteman" border brigades to keep out Kalifornicators?

"So... you say you're from San Dieg-ho, eh...? Sorry, we don't recognize CA drivers licenses here --too much fraud down there. What makes you think you can come here and f@ck up Portland too? "

What is th prognosis for the southern cal area? I left the inland empire area of western san bernardino county. The same crap happening there to a lesser extent. I moved to SC for the time being I'd like to go back but homes tripled in the last five years. Alot of flipping in the LA metro area on dumpster houses in some of the worst areas. Amazingly! they are getting over 500k fr some of this "s'it". The real estate business is scamming consumers here big time..

Your right on with income not keeping up with the cost of living that is why I left. The condo I rent here for $695 would cost me $2000 in california. If the levels ever dropped significantly like pre 2000 prices I may have incentive to return. I remember in 2000 you could still get a decent condo for 150k two years later 225k presently 400k all in a five year span.

The real estate industry in california is saying million dollar homes will be the norm in the next few years. Some of the first 40 year morgage programs are originating from southern cal. So if a million is the norm who are all these people who will be buying at that level? Will companies be paying salaries to suppport that regional market? I think alot of people are in big denial the whole lifestyle there is unsustainable.

I didn't even touch on gas prices and gridlock. That's another problem in itself...

Re: HARM Said...(paraphrase)

"This is a LOCAL shop,
for LOCAL people.."

{Edward and Tubbs, Royston Vasey residents, 'League of Gentleman'...}

Ah...OK....none of you has the foggiest what I'm on about....

(I'll get me coat......)

Returning to Bay Area Says:

Every blog I read is full of people who live in Portland clamoring for new comers to not come. They claim Portland is already overbuilt and that paradise will be lost if people continue to move there.

Every place has NIMBY losers like that. The minute you move into town, you join right in with the rest of the NIMBY crowd and cry about how the place is getting overrun with people moving in from XX. PNW uses the BA as a scapegoat, the desert SW uses LA, VT and NH use Boston or NY, etc etc. It's one of the many annoying aspects of human nature.

It’s one of the many annoying aspects of human nature.

There is no annoying aspect in human nature. Humanity is the annoying aspect of the universe.

HARM,

LOL!

Yes, you'll want to make sure you can get your hands on plenty of Prozac!

As I've always said, I'm not a "Native Oregonian". I grew up on the south side of Chicago. (It's a great place to be FROM)! Since I'm from a "lower caste" than "Native Oregonians" it's not my place to invite or dissuade others to or from our "special" Oregon. When you get your voters pamphlet you'll notice that most of our aspiring candidates list a Cali school under their education credentials. So like I say, you won't be escaping much of anything. Even with a bubble here you can still find decent values. I've lived here off and on since the late 70's and the rain STILL BUGS ME! I was at the coast yesterday and it was 61 degrees. They were having this "Blues and Bar-b-que at the Beach" and it was gusty and chilly. Now on the ride back though it quickly warmed up to 88 degrees within about 30 miles inland.

Assuming you're an "equity locust" keep a little of your powder dry and get a place here and one in LV (just in case).

Hold your judgement.

Generally speaking, the bulk of the migrants (from BA to PNW, from Boston to VT+NH) are average-income families. They just earn more by being in certain high-income locations. They will not bring anything of special values to the communities they move into. Let me repeat. They are just average folks who lose out in their respective environs.

The communities that they move into actually welcome a different set of people, those who can bring something special to the table: Lots of money or special talents or business startups.

Speaking of this Money magazine survey:
http://money.cnn.com/magazines/moneymag/bplive/2006/index.html

This is an interesting juxtaposition. The first list below is their top 25 cities to live in (based on their measures of jobs, crime, culture, housing, and all that usual stuff-let's assume their methodology is useful for the sake of this argument). The second list is the list of the most expensive towns from the same survey. Note how Santa Clarita is the only CA town to make the best-of living list, while Greenwich, CT and Bethesda, MD are the only NON-CA towns to make it to the most expensive list? In other words, we Californians pay too much to live in places that aren't worth the money.

But we knew that already, didn't we?

Best Places to Live:
(Rank, City, population)
1 Fort Collins, CO 128,000
2 Naperville, IL 141,600
3 Sugar Land, TX 75,800
4 Columbia/Ellicott City, MD 159,200
5 Cary, NC 106,400
6 Overland Park, KS 164,800
7 Scottsdale, AZ 226,000
8 Boise, ID 193,200
9 Fairfield, CT 57,800
10 Eden Prairie, MN 60,600
11 Plano, TX 250,100
12 Eagan, MN 63,700
13 Olathe, KS 112,100
14 West Bloomfield , MI 65,000
15 Richardson, TX 99,200
16 Gilbert, AZ 178,100
17 Parsippany-Troy Hills, NJ 51,600
18 Santa Clarita, CA 172,500
19 Carrollton, TX 124,700
20 Henderson, NV 232,100
21 Bellevue, WA 117,100
22 Newton, MA 83,200
23 Sandy, UT 89,700
24 Westminster, CO 105,100
25 Ann Arbor, MI

Here are the cities with the highest median home price.
(Rank, city, median home price 2005)
1 Newport Beach, CA $1,362,500
2 Greenwich, CT $1,129,000
3 Santa Barbara, CA $979,500
4 Palo Alto, CA $929,000
5 Cupertino, CA $880,000
6 Goleta, CA $870,000
7 San Clemente, CA $848,500
8 Bethesda, MD $790,000
9 Pleasanton, CA $785,000
10 Santa Monica, CA $784,000
11 Redondo Beach, CA $777,500
12 Redwood City, CA $767,500
13 San Francisco, CA $755,000
14 Yorba Linda, CA $750,000
15 San Rafael, CA $745,000
16 Encinitas, CA $742,500
17 San Ramon, CA $725,000
18 San Mateo, CA $720,000
19 Arcadia, CA $703,000
20 Santa Cruz, CA $690,000
21 South San Francisco, CA $690,000
22 Berkeley, CA $683,500
23 Alameda, CA $682500
24 Carlsbad, CA $680,000
25 Huntington Beach, CA $678,500

Skibum,

Considering what NIMBY anti-development policies combined with pro-illegal "all population growth is good" politics have done to CA, I wouldn't be too quick to label these people "losers". Some of them may be trying to preserve what makes these places worth moving to.

That said, I believe the quality of immigration matters just as much to the locals as quantity. As GC said, if you bring something special to the table, you will probably be welcomed with open arms wherever you go.

Hold your judgement.

The communities that they move into actually welcome a different set of people, those who can bring something special to the table: Lots of money or special talents or business startups.

GC,
I'm trying to understand your point. Are you saying don't blame the equity migrants, they're just trying to get by and moving to cheaper regions is their response to overpriced cost of living, or are you saying, the locals in these communities are selfish and only want you to move there if you're loaded or will create jobs?

skibum, HARM got it right.

No wonder I’m confused. I have a cat AND a dog.

We have a dog-like cat. :)

That said, I believe the quality of immigration matters just as much to the locals as quantity. As GC said, if you bring something special to the table, you will probably be welcomed with open arms wherever you go.

That's a fine aspiration to have, but as of now, you can't restrict which people move into your region based on whether they will be positive or negative for your community. It's a free country still, and a young brilliant guy/gal wanting to create a startup in your town has the same right to move there as a retiring boomer couple that will buy up a historic home, tear it down and build a McMansion in its place (aside from any preservation laws, etc). Of course, the local community can legislate all they want in terms of "smart growth" and limiting sprawl - I'm all for that. My point is that I've seen in more than one instance that some of the most vocal NIMBYists are the most recent migrants to that region.