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…… back to housing


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2006 Jul 16, 11:59am   19,569 views  312 comments

by Peter P   ➕follow (2)   💰tip   ignore  

All right guys, let's talking about housing again.

How is inventory growing in your area of interest? How are prices responding to inventory? Any observation you would like to share?

#housing

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90   Peter P   2006 Jul 17, 6:30am  

I sense a war has come my way.

No war for you. It is all in the middle east now.

91   skibum   2006 Jul 17, 6:31am  

GC,
Not war, just clarification. You're just much more idealstic than I am about this whole thing.

92   skibum   2006 Jul 17, 6:32am  

Peter P Says:

5 Cupertino, CA $880,000 - Huh???

You are paying to live within the Google sphere of influence.

93   Peter P   2006 Jul 17, 6:33am  

You are paying to live within the Google sphere of influence.

LOL :lol:

94   DinOR   2006 Jul 17, 6:39am  

Skibum,

You are absolutely "spot on" with your observation regarding the latest converts to NIMBYism! The old joke goes that a logger is a guy that dreams of having a cabin in the woods one day. An environmentalist? He already has one!

That's why I pointed out that many of the folks that run for political office here in OR list a Cal school for the "credentials" hoping that either no one will actually read it OR that they will be viewed as a candidate that rejects what CA seems to stand for. A progressive if you will. Even to this day I STILL point out to prospective clients that I'm NOT a native! For God's sake if they find out later that you're not? You'll be prosecuted for impersonating a "Native Oregonian". It's that bad.

95   GallopingCheetah   2006 Jul 17, 6:40am  

Actually, many natives don't like over development and large influx of new people. They are the ones who are generally priced out and marginalized. But many don't complain. They just resign and move further away from the center.

I once had a middle-aged handyman coming to do some work in my condo. He grew up here. We had to go to Home Depot to get a new toilet. On the way there, he pointed out the whole shopping mall, the highway next to it, and the traffic jam and commented to me, "You know, before you guys came, this was all woods and wilderness." His tone was not all that happy.

Regarding NE people welcoming new comers. I think they'll welcome you because you merely replace a former neighbor. NE is old enough that it'll assimilate the new comers. Besides, the size of immigration into NE towns is a lot smaller than on the west coast.

96   Peter P   2006 Jul 17, 6:42am  

I propose a compromise:

Market NIMBYism - the city will produce a list of specifications (amount of open space, traffic, access, sunlight impact, etc) for the land and let owners develop freely so long as the specs are met. Or better yet, they can let owners remove certain restrictions for a price.

97   GallopingCheetah   2006 Jul 17, 6:44am  

skibum, I didn't mean to be rude. I apologize. I was a little agitated, as agitated by my insights.

98   edvard   2006 Jul 17, 6:52am  

Governor Conan,
You made some good points above, but I think you left something fairly major out, which is why many people in California are moving out and into less pricey-more normal areas.
To many californians, simply working and having a purpose to work is a luxury. Working in Cali means you're going to be unable to afford a home here, so why work hard at all? Many californians simply want to work normal jobs and afford a normal lifestyle. What is passed as " normal" for most people in the country is passed off as the lifestyle of the rich in Cali.

99   skibum   2006 Jul 17, 6:54am  

GC,
No problem. Like I said, i think we're on the same page, just I'm noticeably more jaded.

You might enjoy this article from Sunday's NYT:
http://tinyurl.com/f4ckz

A small island off of Charleston, SC has been developed. The guy they feature as a resident there is Mr. Quimby:

There he meets about eight other men who gather most days. “It’s like the old cracker barrel or hardware store,” said Mr. Quinby, an advertising executive who moved here four years ago from Beverly Hills, Calif. “We get together and fix all the world’s problems.”

Great, your local yokel is a guy who just moved in from Beverly Hills. I'm sure the townfolk with family roots going back to the Confederacy love this guy. It's like "Green Acres" without the funny one-liners.

100   astrid   2006 Jul 17, 6:55am  

I would prefer PNW weather to BA. There's no need to water for 9 months out of the year and good hiking for the rest of the year. I'm more concerned about slugs and mosquitoes and man eating bears.

There are solutions to the lack of sunlight. Maybe install a high intensity growing light set up and put a lawn chair underneath, that should help combat depression.

101   edvard   2006 Jul 17, 7:06am  

As far as people in the West having a fear of newomers, I think the fear is less to do about physical property and more about intelligent property- quote-unquote. Many, many many people in California are from somewhere else, and of those people, many came here to " get away" from situations, conditions, and problems in other places in the country. Ever since the popularity of portraying the state as progressive and forward thinking in the media, people have flocked here thinking that somehow this area will solve all their problems, that they can get away from whatever they felt they were escaping, and heaven forbid allow anyone to come in and take it away from them.
I can't tell you how many people I've met here who speak of the " other states" as if theyr were in Siberia and full of snaggle-tooth hillbillies out to spend their every waking hour figuring out ways to trick and ensnare their kind. So when I see people around here throw up the NIMBY curtain, I see it as more of a defense mechanism these people put on to sort of protect themselves from a non-exsistent enemy.

102   astrid   2006 Jul 17, 7:06am  

I'm surprised that Bethesda made it onto the list more expensive nearby areas (Chevy Chase, Great Falls, and Potomac, MD did not).

Greenwich is very nice (at least in the summer when I visited). There's lots of really nice houses, proximity to sailing and fairly decent weather, good schools, and not too far from NYC. Bethesda is close to DC and NIH, so there's lots of doctors, lawyers, lobbyists, and senior civil servants in the neighborhood. It's been upper middle class for a very long time so the housing stock is middle class and not working class. I don't think the housing stock is all that nice though, most of the really big houses are in Great Falls and Potomac, and Chevy Chase, MD almost certainly beats Bethesda on prestige and on a cost by square footage basis.

103   Sylvie   2006 Jul 17, 7:18am  

I do remember when california was golden. Now it is the catalyst for social stratification. It will be remembered as the state that killed the middle class lifestyle. And the state that started illegal immigration migration. I was shocked to see illegals here in the deep south a fair amount at that. Soe things you can't escape even if you move clear across the country.

104   DinOR   2006 Jul 17, 7:21am  

"It's like Green Acres without the funny one liners"

God I hated that show! Now imagine it's where you live and there's no escape!

105   DinOR   2006 Jul 17, 7:24am  

astrid,

I keep meaning to get one of those lights that's supposed to help people like me w/SAD but I got so depressed I wound up drunk instead. Then you have TWO problems, your depressed AND you have a hangover!

106   skibum   2006 Jul 17, 7:25am  

DinOR Says:

“It’s like Green Acres without the funny one liners”

God I hated that show! Now imagine it’s where you live and there’s no escape!

Or imagine being married to Eva Gabor and there's no escape!

107   edvard   2006 Jul 17, 7:28am  

Green acres was stupid. Do you remember the opening sequence? The guy bouncing on the tractor seat? When I was a kid, I'd watch all those stupid shows: Gilligan's Island, the Brady Bunch. Hee-Haw, and three's company. But whenever I heard the theme music for Green Acres, it was off with the TV!

108   skibum   2006 Jul 17, 7:34am  

Yes, Green Acres was pretty lame. However, I think that's the subconscious dream of a lot of these "equity locusts" who specifically move to more rural locales in search of the bucolic idealized lifestyle and to escape the shoulder-to-shoulder crowds of the BA or LA, or wherever. Aren't Eddie Albert and Eva Gabor a 50's version of exactly this phenomenon? A rich NY lawyer and his wife move to the sticks and have a grand ole' time in Hooterville?

109   edvard   2006 Jul 17, 7:43am  

Skibum,
As someone who grew up in the sticks, I think the worst thing that people from NY, CA and other places will find and be sad about is that they'll have to entertain themselves. After moving to the BA, I found that people here seem to always HAVE to be doing something, whether it be drinking, going to some festival, eating out, or whatever. Hardly a spare minute is spent in the home because that's just lame.
Back home, we used to entertain ourselves for days on end. If that meant fixing a lawn mower, digging post holes, or blowing up firecrackers and drinking beer, then so be it. It also meant having grandma over for hamnburgers or swimming at the nearby man made lake.
People from NY would probably find any of the above activities utterly boring.

110   Joe Schmoe   2006 Jul 17, 7:50am  

I miss the winter, and snow, but I like California's endless sunshine.

111   edvard   2006 Jul 17, 7:54am  

RTTBA,
Me and my wife are pretty much the same. Most of our weekends are spent at the house. She does things like fix up old furniture and I work on mechanical things, lawn mowers, and stuff. We take bike rides to eat dinner from time to time. That's about it except the occasional trip to Auburn, CA. We're what many of our friends call boring, but we're also not broke either.
On the other hand, we don't have many friends either since most people we meet like to do stuff ALL THE TIME, so in many ways being a homebody has had a negative impact on our social lives. Oh well. One has to choose.

112   skibum   2006 Jul 17, 7:54am  

RTBA and Joe,
What, you don't like the sunshine? You two are not worthy to put yourselves into indentured servitude in order to "own" a glorified mobile home/crappy stucco s#%tbox, ie, "living the California lifestyle." Why don't you move out of the state and leave that privelege to us "natives?"

113   skibum   2006 Jul 17, 8:06am  

RTBA,
Check out Mt. Hood - the skiing's not bad there. Timberline Lodge is beautiful.

114   DinOR   2006 Jul 17, 8:13am  

The issue that I have with Mrs. DinOR sounds similar. We have so few nice days from start to finish and they are precious to me but she's content milling about at Target or where ever. How much could it have changed in a week? Secondly, I must admit that we have AT LEAST 9 months of "perfect" shopping weather here in Oregon! You'd think she'd have her fill of that with a 3 to 1 ratio advantage wouldn't you? She's pretty sneaky about it too.

"I just have one thing at one store that I need to return" becomes 3 hours of shopping! When it's 40 degrees and raining sideways, well who cares! But when it's 80 and perfect?

115   DinOR   2006 Jul 17, 8:22am  

On being "self entertained".

Why is it that we now need endless "festivals" all summer long? There isn't ONE solitary weekend where some damn town doesn't have a tulip, strawberry or hop festival! And they're all the damn same! Been to one you've been to them all.

Could we please have ONE weekend out of the whole damn summer where there isn't an "event"? I mean the calendar is SO crowded with everything from "Pet Parades" to "farmer's market" etc. etc. And Portland? The worst! From Cinco De Mayo up to and through damned October. And for every one that you actually attend (and burn through on avg. $60 to $100) there are four that you missed. It's like they're setting us up for dissapointment for crissakes. "You mean you DIDN'T go to the Cheese Curd Festival"? NO! I f'ing didn't! I heard they had a crash at the "Rose Festival" Airshow. Maybe if they didn't have a damn "airshow" that man would still be alive today! Stop the insanity!

116   DinOR   2006 Jul 17, 8:27am  

Michael Anderson,

Thanks for the Bend update. Bend has so many freaking festivals it's ridiculous. The Source Weekly did a great piece about a year ago about "What is it exactly we're celebrating again". Totally funny, totally on target. I want to drop agent orange on the Dhalia Festival!

117   DinOR   2006 Jul 17, 8:29am  

They still have homes in Bend for under 500K?

You know Michael I have a good friend that has a modest vacation home out in Joseph and he and always ask "Why Bend"? What makes Bend so attractive? Is it any nicer or better than any of the other dozens of towns scattered throughout central Oregon?

118   GallopingCheetah   2006 Jul 17, 8:33am  

Here's my idea of self entertaining for people aged 30 and above: Fishing. It's a life-long karma training. I don't fish but expect to get into it.

My only concern, from reading washington's fly fishing board, is that one may meet some crazy people (i.e., meth heads) while fishing. There was a debate whether one should carry while fishing. Many actually confirm that they carry. I am for gun ownership. But having to carry while fishing is a little disconcerting.

119   HARM   2006 Jul 17, 8:36am  

Until you secede from the US and impose strict immigration standards (turn the PNW into Switzerland, for example), it is difficult to stem the tide of migration.

This observation reminded me of a conversation I had with my wife back in the mid-90s, right after Prop. 187 passed (the initiative to deny most non-emergency social services to illegals). We observed it passing with a 2/3rds popular majority, including hispanic voters (something the "objective" media here rarely mentions, btw). We then watched in disgust as an unholy coalition of liberal extremists, Aztlan/MEChA supporters and big-agriculture/big-construction/big-hotels united to "defeat" it by gutting it in court.

As I recall, I basically said something like this: "You know what? Nothing is ever going to be done about illegal immigration as long as two things are true: (1) non-border states view illegal immigration as a "border-state" issue that does not affect them personally, and (2) the MSM keeps framing it as a purely racial issue and not an economic one. If we ever get to the point where there is a significant out-migration of illegals to the other states, this may change on the national level. When California has an overwhelming hispanic majority that is equally fed up with being overrun and taxed to death for "free" hand-outs to illegals, things may even change here.

I think we're about at that point now.

120   edvard   2006 Jul 17, 8:37am  

I bet that wine and art festival is the same stupid one that winds up in Alameda. There are the same people setting up there: Little arts and crafts vendors along with crappy match-your-couch- paintings, big black and white photos, the caramel corn stand, and this guy that drives around in a van making signs for your house writing your name with a router.

121   GallopingCheetah   2006 Jul 17, 8:38am  

DinOr, everything today is so organized and smacks of certain pretension. I don't even like soccer leagues. When I was a kid in Shanghai, even though I was on the school team, I rather enjoyed soccer games with my classmates in the neighborehood (between buildings). All the fun activities were unorganized. And we really had great childhood. These days, freaking everything was organized and scores kept by parents, in both US and China.

I remember seeing a satirical (spelling) essay on line a few years ago. It was about how the older generation survived without any organized fairs, sports, and parental protection. One line read (vaguely), "We rode bikes without helmets, but we survived." Has anybody seen this one?

122   GallopingCheetah   2006 Jul 17, 8:42am  

RTBA, I'll probably opt for catch&release, too. But I wouldn't mind catching a fat salmon n Lake Washington from time to time, slice it and bake it! It's not easy to do. I've been having a lot of Yukon River salmon last couple of weeks. Great stuff.

123   Peter P   2006 Jul 17, 8:45am  

Nothing is ever going to be done about illegal immigration as long as two things are true: (1) non-border states view illegal immigration as a “border-state” issue that does not affect them personally, and (2) the MSM keeps framing it as a purely racial issue and not an economic one.

These will help too:

1) Guest worker program is implemented
2) Minimum wage is pegged to $0.00 by a constitutional amendment
3) Welfare system is replaced by a pay-as-you-go system with tax credit

124   HARM   2006 Jul 17, 8:45am  

Could we please have ONE weekend out of the whole damn summer where there isn’t an “event”?

LOL --great rant. DinOR, I nominate you to be the official blog curmudgeon!

125   HARM   2006 Jul 17, 8:50am  

@Peter P, I'm not 100% convinced about the guest worker program, but your other 2 proposals are fine by me. Personally, I'd rather we just raise the regular immigration quotas than go that route. "Guest worker" to me basically means "legal slave", or "documented transient". I'd rather have people who wish to stay here permanently, and therefore have a stake in THIS country than more people with divided loyalties who could give a rat's ass about the U.S.

126   Peter P   2006 Jul 17, 8:56am  

I’d rather have people who wish to stay here permanently, and therefore have a stake in THIS country than more people with divided loyalties who could give a rat’s ass about the U.S.

True.

I’m not 100% convinced about the guest worker program

It is a just lesser evil.

It is better than silently tolerating illegal immigration. If there must be an "underground" economy we should open it up to everyone. Businesses should not be denied cheap labor simply because they choose to obey the law.

Also, if (2) and (3) are implemented (1) will no longer be needed over time.

127   HARM   2006 Jul 17, 8:57am  

I say we throw DinOR a parade. Are there any days open for it?

I'm envisioning an anti-festival float in DinOR's honor, featuring him in a rolling barcalounger, with a beer in one hand and an extended middle finger on the other --pointed right at the adoring crowd.

128   Peter P   2006 Jul 17, 8:59am  

BTW, pegging minimum wage to inflation is the best recipe for stagflation. IF we must have a minimum wage it should be INVERSELY pegged to the CPI.

129   HARM   2006 Jul 17, 8:59am  

Also, if (2) and (3) are implemented (1) will no longer be needed over time.

True. When economic incentives are aligned with the law, the problem should take care of itself.

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