patrick.net

Governor Conon,

go to Heng Shan road to take a look for yourself.

My family was originally from Shanghai, but they managed to flee before the communist took over. I held no grudge against Shanghai where I still have some distant relatives, just describing a fact that many local Shanghainese are reluctant to see. My parents were born in Shanghai, but not me, so I have no particular emotional tie to that place except for what I saw when I worked there for a brief period of time.

I am particularly amused to see how Shanghainese perceive themselves - the center of the universe. Speaking of being the elite of the elite, the most educated and well-heeled Shanghainese fled prior to 1949.

In case you don't know the true reputation of Shanghai among the male exptas, it is called the sex haven of the orient.

Requiem,

Congratulations on your USS cert. Which level? I'm ASA-certified for bareboat charter. One thing good about BA is that the bay is a great place for sailing. One dude told me when I was interviewing 6 years ago.

Just the BK and BC; I need to rack up 10 charters before the bareboat course. I've heard (and seen) the same thing about the bay; you can essentially pick your sailing conditions by going to different parts of the bay.

MA,

Post the link, I could use a laugh! Early I was saying just how "all over the board" Oregon's prices have become. Bought in March of "05"? But housing won't "crash" like the stock market b/c houses don't trade like stocks right? You mean a 60%+ return in 16 months isn't standard?

OO,

the most educated and well-heeled Shanghainese fled prior to 1949.

So did 10 and 100 times more army conscripts.

Many in the government fled. But many business owners also stayed (foolishly). Many with land could not flee as it became infeasible to unload the land. Some were fortunate that they weren't executed. But the ordeal they and children went through doesn't really endear my family to the communist government. I know one girl's grandfather, who was a super duper land owner, was executed. I also had a friend in college whose grandfather was a minister in the nationalist government. Her family somehow stayed, for reasons unbeknowst to me. They were stupid.

By the way, if your parents were born in Shanghai, they were most likely not among the elites in China, because traditionally the elites were the land owners and government officials. Merchants ranked very low in Chinese society (and most old-world societies).

Merchants ranked very low in Chinese society (and most old-world societies).

How about Tao Masters? :)

Being that I'm in lowballing mode, I found this advice to sellers on dealing with lowballers. I added bold emphasis. Note that the advice starts off very pro seller, but ends on a more "check reality" tone.

Lowball Offers
.
.
.
A lowball offer is one that's far below a property's true fair market value. For example, if someone offers you $150,000 for your house when recent comparable sales data show that it's worth every penny of $300,000, that's a lowball offer. Lowball offers are typically made by unmotivated buyers trying to get a deal, by people who think that you are desperate and willing to negotiate, or by buyers who think that your property is overpriced.

Your asking price may have been close to fair market value when you initially put the property on the market. However, in a weak market, prices keep declining. If your house has been for sale for months and the only offer you've gotten appears to be a lowball, have your agent review all recent sale prices of comparable houses before you reject the offer. If prices are dropping like boulders, that "lowball" offer may be worth pursuing.

I will let my agent decide on the "lowball" offer price and he will present it only if I am fine with the price.

I do believe in mutual trust. If I am to buy a house with good energy, I do not want to disturb that energy.

Someone posted this link on on of the discussions on Ben's blog.

http://www.safehaven.com/article-5643.htm

It's long but very good article. If you don't have much time, at least scroll down to the bottom of the page to see the last 2 charts.

An interesting info ... again regarding the improvement in loan standards. Emphasis mine.

One last outstanding issue of importance is the OCC mortgage lending guidelines to come. You may remember that very early this year, the OCC (Office of the Comptroller of the Currency - the banking system regulator) set forth proposed guidelines that essentially mandate that banks knock off no-doc, negative am, option ARM, etc. lending. Well, it has been one of the longest "comment periods" we've ever seen for this type of regulatory guideline enactment. But, as of now, these guidelines are set to take effect by the end of summer. The only loud vocal opposition has come from the NAR (Natl. Assoc. of Realtors). We're certain the guidelines will be enacted as almost completely originally handed down due to the fact that neither Congress nor the Senate even made a peep about them. So, there's going to be additional mortgage credit cycle pressure yet to come. We have not even experienced the fallout effects of this yet. And it's clear that both consumer and industry sentiment is literally plummeting prior to this . Will tightening the mortgage credit tourniquet improve consumer sentiment towards housing or make it worse? Go ahead and take a wild guess. Lastly, it's only serendipity that so much ARM debt is set to reprice at the exact time banks are being implicitly mandated to stop risky mortgage lending, as they have enjoyed for so long now. Oh those fat sub prime margins, right? We're gonna miss ya.

StuckInBA,

on top of that, rates are rumored to go to 6%.

Well, OCC is more proactive than I thought. Something is actually being done before there is blood on the street. If they can enforce the guidelines, I will be very impressed.

on top of that, rates are rumored to go to 6%.

Let year, I told my friends that rate will go to 6% and I got a laugh.

Kalifornia Guide to Dealing with lowball offers

Suppose that you just put your 600sft stucco shitbox next to the freeway underpass up for sale. You priced it by adding the standard 20% to its summer 2005 peak market value. Two days after your house hits the market, you get an absurdly low offer 5% below your asking price. Either the buyers have done their homework regarding regarding comparable home sales, or they realize your house’s real value is plummeting due to the bubble's implosion and are trying to exploit your situation.

As a seller, you can handle people who lowball your ridiculously-priced house in one of two ways. You can let the buyers know that their offer is totally unacceptable by having your agent return the offer unsigned. Why waste time making a counter offer to people who are either intellectually above average or have a firm grasp on economic reality? Or you can make a fantasy-price counter offer along with a "feed the squirrels" contingency. Show your contempt by hardballing the buyers on each and every term and condition in their offer, watching as they double over with laughter. (Although emotionally satisfying, this reponse is lose-lose negotiating. We don’t recommend this approach.)

People who lowball a priced-to-sit property destroy any chance of funding your early retirement and invite an unwelcome sense of fair play upon which cooperative negotiation is based. Fair play must be avoided at all costs. Real buyers know the difference between a realistic asking price that gives them room to negotiate and a preposterous asking price. Such buyers must be avoided at all costs.

Or you can make a fantasy-price counter offer along with a “feed the squirrels” contingency.

LOL :lol:

Congrats, SQT. You have created a very successful thread!

What we have here is a, "No-Buyers Market." That is because there are so very few buyers right now. Just look at foot traffic figures at real estate offices, hardly anyone walking in the doors. As a news paper article in SW Florida put it from a local RE agent, "Where are all the stinking buyers? You can just smell the fear."

The, "buyers market", description is just a psychological ploy that hopes to sucker stupid people into buying while prices are still high. Buyers in the US are the most sophisticated consumers on the whole of the planet called Earth. For the most part, shoppers have honed their bargain shopping skills, through multiple hours of Internet searches, and only pay the lowest price found for things they want.

People who find and pay the lowest price for things, are praised in this society as savvy shoppers, and should wear their bargain buys as a badge of honor. No one has the right to put us down for this. Thanks to Zillo, Craigslist, Ebay, Amazon, Walmart, and others for showing us the way. Monster consumers is what was created, and monster consumers will set the price of real estate. Try to stop us.

Congrats, SQT. You have created a very successful thread!

Yes and you mentioned "Oooooh, the claws are coming out." without being attacked....congratulations! :)

WOW. Does anyone here detect a big, I mean BIG change in psychology as the summer selling days are coming to an end.

I have noticed even newer houses in Cupertino school district are reducing ASKING prices. The one I noticed did not have any atrocious asking price as per comps. Hence the drop - even though only of 5K - is symbolically so significant.

Honestly, I did not expect this to happen so early.

Honestly, I did not expect this to happen so early.

I've been expecting it for years!

I like Cupertino. I feel safe in it. People there will do no harm.

That said, I still do not know why it is so overpriced. Isn't Burlingame nicer?

That said, I still do not know why it is so overpriced. Isn’t Burlingame nicer?

The school district, and possibly the collective belief that alone will support future prices?

Btw, I just looked at my summer '06 predictions here. Admittedly, I was way off in my projections--although not the inventory spike by summer.

In case you're curious...I saw Jack "Bob Ross" the other day--he's doing well.

In case you’re curious…I saw Jack “Bob Ross” the other day–he’s doing well.

I actually drove past Fairfax last weekend. Marin is prime. :)

The school district, and possibly the collective belief that alone will support future prices?

I do not like to live with young families. So I have to choose nice areas with crappy school districts. :(

1. Best schools in the Bay Area.

Huh? Having attend the best high school does not make one a senator automatically.

2. Cupertino Village

Huh? The Millbrae area has better Asian food. Palo Alto has very good food overall now.

3. White flight.

Huh? Isn't Oakland more prime then?

Shit_hits_the_fan Says:

So.. my friends, the time has come for me to make an announcement. Many of you have listened to me go on and on and on about someday moving to another state, another city, another town where living is more affordable, and the salaries actually pay for the costs of living.

That time has come. Me and my wife had a serious conversation last night. We are now definantly moving out of the state within a year or less. We haven’t decided which city we are planning to move to. Nashville, Asheville, Raleigh Durahm, Chapel Hill, and Richmond are all possibiltites.

____

I salute you SHTF! I think things will work out.
You will make it.

I'm originally from San Jose, now in Phoenix.

Too much changed too fast in Cali for the worse. The state is an unaffordable, complicated beast that sucks you dry at every turn.
I miss it, but I believe it's the old Bay Area that I miss. Perhaps it's gone
forever.

Good luck on your move. You can always go back and visit.

"WOW. Does anyone here detect a big, I mean BIG change in psychology as the summer selling days are coming to an end."

Yes, about 40% of the daily listings my realtor sends me are reduced.

For those who follow the market, these few days the volume has been below average. What to make of it? Typical summer doldrum?

Do women always say what they want?
http://news.yahoo.com/s/usatoday/studywomenliketechtoysmorethanshoes

Buy Apple stock.

I'm looking for women partners to go into tech toy business.

Can anybody give me the skinny on unpermitted square footage?

I've just been having a look on Zip for houses, and half of them say 'unpermitted bedroom/bathroom/studio' etc...and almost all say that the buyer needs to check permits, square footage.

Does this mean that, as a buyer, you need to make sure that all the work has permits before buying? Is it 'normal' to expect the buyer to do this, or is this just a vestige of the 'sellers market' mentality'?

Also, does the taxed assessed value have any bearing on reality? Is it a way to find out the 'fair' value of a house, or should it just be ignored?

Sorry, I've asked this before, but I'm still unclear.

Also, OT

Let us speculate on the effect of Castro's death. For one thing, Cuba will be opened up within next 5 years.

screened in porch

The caviar eating gilded Bay Aryans will pay top dollar for one of these, especially if it's a turbo.

SFWoman, I'm sorry I thought they meant "screened in porsche". ahahahahaha

SFWoman,

I like your RE bubble prediction. It's a great idea.

What I’d like to know is this: who’s going to pay for my rehab now that I’m addicted to these bubble blogs?

I tried quiting for two days. Today I stayed home and went back on the dope again.

Seattle lags the national hot spots by at least a year. The cranes in downtown Bellevue went up only last year. The frenzy is going to continue for some time.

I hope you are not pulling my legs. In any case, my take on the Seattle situation.

Major appreciation started sometime last year. Depending on when you sold your house, your ex-house is now worth 20-40% more than what you sold it for.

Slowdown in this area isn't likely to happen until the recession hits. Even then, MSFT will keep enough people on its payroll and the local housing market will have a good support. There will be RIF after vista ships, but not enough to drastically impact the local housing market. Boeing is also doing well. So if you intend to buy at a much reduced market price (say at 2000-2001 level), you may not get your wish or at least you'll have to wait for a 2-4 years.

Peter P says:
I like Cupertino. I feel safe in it. People there will do no harm.

That's right.
They will also tend to not acknowledge your presence if you're a member of the wrong (a different?) ethnic group or maybe: economic class. In almost two years, several of our immediate neighbours have never once returned our friendly "hello"s.
Well, in reality, we've given up after a few unsuccessful attempts.

One other thing that puzzles me: A lot of folks refuse to use the sidewalk, but rather walk on the street, even when there's some traffic. No idea why.

artdoggie Says:

"...We just got back from a weekend in upstate New York where we make the mistake at stopping at the wrong Dunkin Donuts & got verbally harrassed right out of the place. It was really frightening..."
_____

WTF?

SQT,

Welcome to the asylum :)

WiS:

Best luck. You took quite a risk: You might have sold too early. I used to subscribe to Richard Russell's Dow Theory Letter. On the bulletin board, old people were talking about getting out of CA RE. That was 2002-2003. I guess some must be regretting now.

In general, a rising RE market is bad for most people, except those who sell and MOVE AWAY. It's more expensive to upgrade in a rising market, because the price differential also increases. Owners are taxed more. Blah and blah.

Please don’t misunderstand. I don’t want to profit off others’ misfortune, and feel bad about what I believe is to come, but I do want to buy another house. I’m just not going to pay too much for it. So, I’m waiting for prices to come down.

You should not feel bad about this. The "others with misfortunes" are not passive actors. They were free to make the same decisions you made, only chose not to do so due to greed, ignorance, apathy or just plain different beliefs about the future.

There are always winners and losers. You took a risk by selling. They took a risk by not buying/holding. That they may deny the risk existed makes no difference, because if they come out the losers then clearly it did; but only you recognized it for what it was.

I bristle at the "when I win I'm deserving" but "when I lose I'm a victim suffering a misfortune bestowed upon me" mentality. Like I've said a hundred times, most Americans are not capitalists. They only pretend to be when they're winning.

I still maintain that houses are a durable good. Thus, lower housing prices would be like lower PC prices...it's bad for the producers but good for everybody else.

GC,

I'm Shanghai born, so no Hong Kong bias. I love Shanghai but the food/culture is still middling and I don't get all the fuss. It's cool to live there as an ex-pat and feel 5X richer than you actually are, but it's not an exceptional city yet. I'd say it's more like Indian mega cities or SE Asian cities with a touch of the first world.

I saw a Papa John's the last time I was in Shanghai. Perhaps better fast food franchises are moving in.

The only thing I really miss are the steamed mini pork dumplings and the fried mini pork buns, but that's more street food.

Peter P,

Shark fins are tasteless and NoCal has some of the best abalone in the world. In fact, most of the expensive Chinese ingredients are utterly tasteless and gooey and involve extreme animal cruelty - like camel humps and bear paws.