patrick.net

I will know when it's a buyer market when this blog turns into something like craigslist housing where many people post one line messages just to vent. And all of the names we see here now will be gone because they are busy shopping for houses rather than blogging.

I like Scott's viewpoint. But since there's so much mobility in BA and there isn't a strong tradition in BA to absorb and indoctrinate the new comers, we are left with fads in BA.

The situation in LA might be very different.

Peter P says:
Diversity does not make prejudice go away. Local friends do not like my pro-whaling stance.

Good one :)

Good one

I see that you are also pro-whaling? :)

SP,

Your "original" definitions are spot on! We need to remind ourselves of the basics more often.

OO: I'm picturing the "Taco Bell is fancy?!" scene from Demolition Man, so I must ask, are the KFCs in Shanghai like what I'd expect in the US, or are they some fancy $100/plate mutation?

On diversity: If I head back to the Central Valley, I see nothing but white people. I know that's really not the case, because there is some insane number of different languages spoken in the area (Assyrian, Hmong, Arabic, Farsi, Russian, etc.) and I've encountered some of the communities outside of day-to-day life. But, If I walk around, I see nothing but white. If I go back East or South, I see a mix of black and white. It's only in the BA that I can step outside and have a high probability of seeing something other than solid white/black.

'Course, I don't think of CA as wonderful, just the northern part of the BA. LA would be much improved by a meteor strike, and the rest of the interior seems to be a fairly homogeneous and insular people.

Governor Conon,

The only place that I could land a woman any time was Shanghai. If you speak English fluently, you can literally sleep with any Shanghainese woman, you need to find a way to get away from them. If you are white, you are golden, there are endless choices of women there. Although many are attempting to sleep for passports, most are just happy enough to brag to their friends that they bagged a white guy. Being seen in public engaging in PDA with a white guy is considered a source of pride for local women.

This is nothing special about Shanghai, most colonies or ex-colonies behave the same way. In the earlier days of Hong Kong, women prefer British to Chinese, same thing for Singapore. Just that Shanghai is just beginning to relive its colonial days after China opened up, so it is still at the bottom of the curve climbing up to become a city with an identity. Currently, it has none.

Peter,

I'm pro hunting. Don't know about whaling thing. Will support if whaling doesn't endanger the species. Never had whale meat. Does it taste good?

Never had whale meat. Does it taste good?

It tastes horrible. I mean horrible.

But the if whaling is to be banned, finning of sharks will be next. Then wild sturgeons will be protected. Soon enough, vegetarianism will be forced upon us. It must stop.

I may support an international tax on whaling if it can slow down the depletion of whales.

Anthony,

I do agree! Sure, my wife and I still shop our local Portland area market once in awhile but it's primariliy for "entertainment" purposes. Like; "can you beleive what these J.O's think they're going to get for that dump"?

What's equally astounding is that there appear to be a fair amount of "panic" sellers too! If I wasn't so damn stingy we'd already have a 4 bd. 2 1/2 ba. with a pool. Some of these people have of late (2006) learned there just might be a bubble and Portland is still reeling from the tech meltdown so some of us don't need to be told twice. For a goof, check out C/L in Portland and you'll see homes priced ALL OVER the board. Funny really.

Question for those considering leaving the BA:

If (big if, I know) you were able to get into a nice home in a nice neighborhood without being a slave to your mortgage, would you stay here? I’ve read a lot of griping about other negative aspects of the BA, but if housing prices “righted” themselves, would you still consider leaving, and why?

Can't speak to leaving the BA specifically (living in L.A.), but I'd still want to leave CA due to all the other serious long-term structural issues: overcrowding, perma-gridlock, crumbling infrastructure, pollution, unmanaged flood of illegal immigration, NIMBY/SMUG/fake"diversity"-driven politics, high tax (for what you get), crappy public schools, etc. Maybe the desire wouldn't be as extreme, but it would still be there.

California itself has created most of the pervasive problems it now faces (NIMBYism/SMUG/"diversity"-driven politics), while others (unchecked illegal immigration, wage erosion, overpopulation/urban ghetto-ization) are at least partly due to policies set at the federal level. I'll admit that some of this is due to the slow, inevitable process of globalization. But even so, the effects are only made worse by federal and local policies that accelerate this process far beyond the capacity for individual communities (and individuals) to cope.

If being a "real" Libertarian means I have to support race-to-the-bottom globalization where my standard of living drops to that of your average Bagladeshi, then please count me among those "capitalism-hating" protectionists. May I suggest an alternative: How about we start promoting a type of "globalization" that actually RAISES up the standard of living in other countries to match ours?

OO,

You are projecting your fantasy and past wrongs done to your people onto others. It is not healthy.

I was in Shanghai last year, I didn't see anything like what you described. I had a reunion with my high-school classmates last year. I didn't detect any sentiments among my classmates that they wanted to suck up to foreigners. Most were happy with what they had accomplished so far. But then again, I went to the elite of the elite high schools.

You've been hanging out with the wrong people.

BTW, I don't appreciate that you attack women of any place.

You are a low-life, insecure, and self-hating scumbag.

Skibum,

Yes, SF proper has a lot Chinese people whereas Danville and Black Hawk are predominantly white. But there are a lot of mixed communities like Berkeley, Hercules, El Cerrito, Redwood City and Fremont. Yeah, Daly City has a lot of Philipinos, yeah Marin county is mostly white. Tell me of another metro area in the US that isn't like this where certain cities or certain suburbs have a heavier concentration of one ethnicity, race or socio-economic group? You can't really call one city diverse, but you can call the Bay Area diverse. Self-segregation seems instinctual for "happiness". It also makes things more interesting because different cities will have their own "feel". Champaign-Urbana isn't diverse and neither is South Central LA. But Chicago metro is a diverse area and LA metro is a diverse area. Diversity is just one of the things that I like about the BA.

The weather anomolies from this past year are just that, anomolies. California also had a drought in '77 which was pretty bad, but it wasn't normal. Anybody who lived in CA around that time remembers the drought. Chicago is always freezing in the winter and NY is always swealtering hot in the summer. Just because it can be hot in the BA doesn't mean that it's always hot.

Ok, my pro-BA stance makes me feel like a realt-whore pan-handling for a sale: "real estate never goes down, this place is different"

DinOR Says:

"...Just think how wonderful 2007 is going to be!"
_____

Oh, yeah!

Summer of Love 2007: Burn, baby burn...(disco inferno!).

Ok, my pro-BA stance makes me feel like a realt-whore pan-handling for a sale: “real estate never goes down, this place is different”

Exactly! All I'm saying is yes, the BA has great things about it, but they don't justify current housing prices. Another definition of a real buyers' market (in the BA): when people say they want to move here because of the cheap housing! (never in our lifetimes).

Even if we were lucky enough to find "the pony" in this steaming pile of manure it may not be meaningful when surrounded by For Sale signs and REO's and ever softening prices. My big issue where obligating myself for any kind of a mortgage (let alone a HUGE one) would be concerned is that for every dollar I am OVERPAYING on a mortgage that's a dollar NOT going into my SEP/IRA! At this point that's more important to me than having a pool or a "peek a boo view".

Folks. It's all about psychology. To most people, owning is more honorific than renting. If owning (sorry, borrowing to buy) entails enslavement for 20-30 years, it might not be worth it.

If one tells himself that he refuses to be a slave to (fill in the blanks), he can set himself free mentally and physically.

If his woman constantly nags him to make the sacrifice of his liberty in order to catch up with the Jones (fellow slaves), he will make the right decision to set her free and free himself.

Buying now would rob me of one of my most valued fantasies. That is renting for about half of a neg am mort. payment and being a total pain for the life of the lease or until eviction (which ever comes first)! No one and I mean NO ONE is going to take that from me!

To most people, owning is more honorific than renting. If owning (sorry, borrowing to buy) entails enslavement for 20-30 years, it might not be worth it.

Oh yes! I've had the "but for a lot of people, buying a house isn't about the money" conversation. (That was just after the "why don't you save money by buying a house" conversation.) For me, I can't understand why one of the largest financial decisions of most peoples' lives would be made without consideration of the financial impact.

I like my rent. I like that it lets me travel, go sailing (just got my US Sailing certs!) and still put money in savings.

Governor Conon,

go to Heng Shan road to take a look for yourself.

My family was originally from Shanghai, but they managed to flee before the communist took over. I held no grudge against Shanghai where I still have some distant relatives, just describing a fact that many local Shanghainese are reluctant to see. My parents were born in Shanghai, but not me, so I have no particular emotional tie to that place except for what I saw when I worked there for a brief period of time.

I am particularly amused to see how Shanghainese perceive themselves - the center of the universe. Speaking of being the elite of the elite, the most educated and well-heeled Shanghainese fled prior to 1949.

In case you don't know the true reputation of Shanghai among the male exptas, it is called the sex haven of the orient.

Requiem,

Congratulations on your USS cert. Which level? I'm ASA-certified for bareboat charter. One thing good about BA is that the bay is a great place for sailing. One dude told me when I was interviewing 6 years ago.

Just the BK and BC; I need to rack up 10 charters before the bareboat course. I've heard (and seen) the same thing about the bay; you can essentially pick your sailing conditions by going to different parts of the bay.

MA,

Post the link, I could use a laugh! Early I was saying just how "all over the board" Oregon's prices have become. Bought in March of "05"? But housing won't "crash" like the stock market b/c houses don't trade like stocks right? You mean a 60%+ return in 16 months isn't standard?

OO,

the most educated and well-heeled Shanghainese fled prior to 1949.

So did 10 and 100 times more army conscripts.

Many in the government fled. But many business owners also stayed (foolishly). Many with land could not flee as it became infeasible to unload the land. Some were fortunate that they weren't executed. But the ordeal they and children went through doesn't really endear my family to the communist government. I know one girl's grandfather, who was a super duper land owner, was executed. I also had a friend in college whose grandfather was a minister in the nationalist government. Her family somehow stayed, for reasons unbeknowst to me. They were stupid.

By the way, if your parents were born in Shanghai, they were most likely not among the elites in China, because traditionally the elites were the land owners and government officials. Merchants ranked very low in Chinese society (and most old-world societies).

Merchants ranked very low in Chinese society (and most old-world societies).

How about Tao Masters? :)

Being that I'm in lowballing mode, I found this advice to sellers on dealing with lowballers. I added bold emphasis. Note that the advice starts off very pro seller, but ends on a more "check reality" tone.

Lowball Offers
.
.
.
A lowball offer is one that's far below a property's true fair market value. For example, if someone offers you $150,000 for your house when recent comparable sales data show that it's worth every penny of $300,000, that's a lowball offer. Lowball offers are typically made by unmotivated buyers trying to get a deal, by people who think that you are desperate and willing to negotiate, or by buyers who think that your property is overpriced.

Your asking price may have been close to fair market value when you initially put the property on the market. However, in a weak market, prices keep declining. If your house has been for sale for months and the only offer you've gotten appears to be a lowball, have your agent review all recent sale prices of comparable houses before you reject the offer. If prices are dropping like boulders, that "lowball" offer may be worth pursuing.

I will let my agent decide on the "lowball" offer price and he will present it only if I am fine with the price.

I do believe in mutual trust. If I am to buy a house with good energy, I do not want to disturb that energy.

Someone posted this link on on of the discussions on Ben's blog.

http://www.safehaven.com/article-5643.htm

It's long but very good article. If you don't have much time, at least scroll down to the bottom of the page to see the last 2 charts.

An interesting info ... again regarding the improvement in loan standards. Emphasis mine.

One last outstanding issue of importance is the OCC mortgage lending guidelines to come. You may remember that very early this year, the OCC (Office of the Comptroller of the Currency - the banking system regulator) set forth proposed guidelines that essentially mandate that banks knock off no-doc, negative am, option ARM, etc. lending. Well, it has been one of the longest "comment periods" we've ever seen for this type of regulatory guideline enactment. But, as of now, these guidelines are set to take effect by the end of summer. The only loud vocal opposition has come from the NAR (Natl. Assoc. of Realtors). We're certain the guidelines will be enacted as almost completely originally handed down due to the fact that neither Congress nor the Senate even made a peep about them. So, there's going to be additional mortgage credit cycle pressure yet to come. We have not even experienced the fallout effects of this yet. And it's clear that both consumer and industry sentiment is literally plummeting prior to this . Will tightening the mortgage credit tourniquet improve consumer sentiment towards housing or make it worse? Go ahead and take a wild guess. Lastly, it's only serendipity that so much ARM debt is set to reprice at the exact time banks are being implicitly mandated to stop risky mortgage lending, as they have enjoyed for so long now. Oh those fat sub prime margins, right? We're gonna miss ya.

StuckInBA,

on top of that, rates are rumored to go to 6%.

Well, OCC is more proactive than I thought. Something is actually being done before there is blood on the street. If they can enforce the guidelines, I will be very impressed.

on top of that, rates are rumored to go to 6%.

Let year, I told my friends that rate will go to 6% and I got a laugh.

Kalifornia Guide to Dealing with lowball offers

Suppose that you just put your 600sft stucco shitbox next to the freeway underpass up for sale. You priced it by adding the standard 20% to its summer 2005 peak market value. Two days after your house hits the market, you get an absurdly low offer 5% below your asking price. Either the buyers have done their homework regarding regarding comparable home sales, or they realize your house’s real value is plummeting due to the bubble's implosion and are trying to exploit your situation.

As a seller, you can handle people who lowball your ridiculously-priced house in one of two ways. You can let the buyers know that their offer is totally unacceptable by having your agent return the offer unsigned. Why waste time making a counter offer to people who are either intellectually above average or have a firm grasp on economic reality? Or you can make a fantasy-price counter offer along with a "feed the squirrels" contingency. Show your contempt by hardballing the buyers on each and every term and condition in their offer, watching as they double over with laughter. (Although emotionally satisfying, this reponse is lose-lose negotiating. We don’t recommend this approach.)

People who lowball a priced-to-sit property destroy any chance of funding your early retirement and invite an unwelcome sense of fair play upon which cooperative negotiation is based. Fair play must be avoided at all costs. Real buyers know the difference between a realistic asking price that gives them room to negotiate and a preposterous asking price. Such buyers must be avoided at all costs.

Or you can make a fantasy-price counter offer along with a “feed the squirrels” contingency.

LOL :lol:

Congrats, SQT. You have created a very successful thread!

What we have here is a, "No-Buyers Market." That is because there are so very few buyers right now. Just look at foot traffic figures at real estate offices, hardly anyone walking in the doors. As a news paper article in SW Florida put it from a local RE agent, "Where are all the stinking buyers? You can just smell the fear."

The, "buyers market", description is just a psychological ploy that hopes to sucker stupid people into buying while prices are still high. Buyers in the US are the most sophisticated consumers on the whole of the planet called Earth. For the most part, shoppers have honed their bargain shopping skills, through multiple hours of Internet searches, and only pay the lowest price found for things they want.

People who find and pay the lowest price for things, are praised in this society as savvy shoppers, and should wear their bargain buys as a badge of honor. No one has the right to put us down for this. Thanks to Zillo, Craigslist, Ebay, Amazon, Walmart, and others for showing us the way. Monster consumers is what was created, and monster consumers will set the price of real estate. Try to stop us.

Congrats, SQT. You have created a very successful thread!

Yes and you mentioned "Oooooh, the claws are coming out." without being attacked....congratulations! :)

WOW. Does anyone here detect a big, I mean BIG change in psychology as the summer selling days are coming to an end.

I have noticed even newer houses in Cupertino school district are reducing ASKING prices. The one I noticed did not have any atrocious asking price as per comps. Hence the drop - even though only of 5K - is symbolically so significant.

Honestly, I did not expect this to happen so early.

Honestly, I did not expect this to happen so early.

I've been expecting it for years!

I like Cupertino. I feel safe in it. People there will do no harm.

That said, I still do not know why it is so overpriced. Isn't Burlingame nicer?

That said, I still do not know why it is so overpriced. Isn’t Burlingame nicer?

The school district, and possibly the collective belief that alone will support future prices?

Btw, I just looked at my summer '06 predictions here. Admittedly, I was way off in my projections--although not the inventory spike by summer.

In case you're curious...I saw Jack "Bob Ross" the other day--he's doing well.