patrick.net

Conor and Astrid,

I agree with Conor's comments re: future inflation in education costs. The deflationary impact of the internet has yet to be felt in the educational context. But it will happen. I read somewhere that MIT has put 75% of its lectures online for free public access (would have been 100%, but for the cries of protest from tenured faculty).

We have the technology to give everyone a free (or very cheap) post-secondary education. Educators will fight the trend toward lower cost education, but the trend will be inevitable.

I think there are a couple of reasons why college costs have gotten so high. (1) Supply and demand--anyone with a pulse can get admitted to a four year college and qualify for government subsidized loans to fund their pursuit of a bachelor's degree in forensic anthropology or applied basket weaving (driving up demand), but the number of spaces available for freshman in "name" schools is relatively fixed (limiting supply); (2) price fixing (notice how whenever Harvard or Stanford raise tuition, lesser schools like Bennington or George Washington U follow suit); (3) price discrimination (only the rich pay full fare, everyone else gets kickbacks, in the form of grants, which are magically just enough to cover tuition after the student has maxed out his or her capacity to borrow money from private and gov't subsidized sources); and (4) bundling (by this I mean that most large schools now "offer" mandatory health insurance, recreation centers, staffed and stocked libraries, landscaped lawns, non-revenue generating intercollegiate athletics, etc., etc... These services add little, if any, educational benefit).

When mom and dad have maxed out their equity lines, something will have to give. They will start looking for cheaper places to send their kids and the market will respond. Education really doesn't need to cost anywhere near what it currently costs. No-frills campuses and distance learning will become all the rage as consumers become more cost-sensitive.

I could write a similar tirade on health care inflation, but I'll save it for another day.

surfer-x,

there's this privately-run school called New Orient in China offering TOEFL and GRE English prep classes. It is an amazing school that makes absolutely sure you can score high in TOEFL and GRE verbal regardless of your genuine command of English.

They got busted by sending a troop of students into tests for the ONLY purpose of taking down all questions. Since GRE used to recycle its questions randomly from a finite set, if you keep sending people to all tests, at some point you will be able record the entire set. And they did it.

The result is quite devastating for the entire Chinese student population, because US grad school admissions start to discount their scores, people either get suspicious, or dismiss the test scores altogether. Nevertheless, New Orient has made sh*tloads of money and is about to go IPO on NASDAQ later this year.

OO,

I'm not sure I'd agree with you. I think the Chinese exam system is the inherent result of an increasingly conservative neo-Confucian government after the end of North Sung. That conservativism made the Chinese and Korean governments very long lived, but caused the whole culture to stagnate as a side effect.

My main problem is that most tests are not good judges of people's inherent thinking/working capacity. At most, they show a certain level of intelligence and a certain amount of dedication to getting the A's. The only way to really test people is to hire them and give them more and more responsibility, and see how they deal with that.

Peter P,

Thanks.

Here is some entertainment for your reading pleasure. :lol:

repost It's the P word.

Checking in. Just got out of bed.

Peter P says:

Asian parents seem to want their kids to become the perfect employees. So they want the right schools in the right field. However, in real life, doing the “right” thing will not get a person too far. A rat race is a rat race.

Yes and No.

Getting into the right school is very much ingrained in the Asian mentality, due to the long history of exam meritocracy.

However, amongst the American middle class, this mentality has been very, very strong since the 70’s, when the elite schools opened up to less privileged kids.

About the right schools: Aside from proper socialization and excellent friendship, you also develop connections which will be extremely beneficial in your latter life. I’ve had chances to make 30-40 mil because I know the right guy at the right school. Of course I botched it and am wandering here.

However, these days, the importance of the right schools is much downplayed. I blame SAT meritocracy. Anyone with a good mind and discipline can acrue enough “right” credentials — president of the debate club, co-captain of the cross-country team, chair of the after-school volunteer program — can go to Harvard, Yale Princeton. So there’s less connection factor, more cut-throat competition, and pure meritocracy shit.

But you still get good connections. THose cut-throat A’ses are so competitive that they’re bound to succeed in their respective careers — note that success is far from a dirty word in America. So I can always call them up in the middle of the night, should I ever need private venture funding for my next p...or....n site.

It used to be if you go to the right high school, you will end up in a great college. Not any more.

Regarding rat race: I disagree. If I can afford it, I’ll make sure my children don’t end up in a rat race. My parents certainly never prepared me for this, not even work.

Rat race is over-rated. I actually had some trouble with a few fellow students in grad school, one from China and another (real asshole) from India. I just shied away from that. But you know what? In the end, I was still the top guy leading a large project, my papers and thesis embodied the work that rat racer did, and was recruited by companies because of this, not because I was a dogged rat racer.

But I wish my folks had money so that I didn’t have to meet these people in the first place.

GC, I agree that connections are indeed very important.

Tests (and schools for that matter) can vary wildly in quality. I'm one of those people who can score very well on a test simply by guessing cross-referencing different questions and answers. If I had to design a test, it would have questions that have multiple valid answers on a scale of "brute force" to "elegant". The harder part would be redoing the questions to prevent people getting used to them, or passing down solutions.

Of course, if you really want to test people, you have to use the proper format. The interviews Adm. Rickover did when he ran the Navy's nuclear program are a good example of this.

Possibly an ARM reset?

SATs and other ETS exams have only themselves to blame. They've designed tests that, if not quite cracked the way New Oriental cracked the TOFEL, allow for dramatic improvements with some pre-test preparation and frankly has little to do with how well a student would be able to digest information in a college classroom, how well they can write essays and follow verbal orders, and most importantly, how well they get along with other people.

Looks like another ARM reset and she wants to burn away her 401k retirement account to save her house.

allah,

Yeah, I don't get it. What the hell do they think will happen once they get deeper in debt to help them over the current hump? ARM rates will drop to zero? Home prizes will zoom up another 30%? They'll win the multi-state Powerball?

As we have now been discussing education and school districts for awhile, feel free to comment on a new topic:

"Examples of stupid comments I’m tired of reading in real estate reports and listings"

Critical mass of approximately 250-300 posts has now been reached...;)

tsusiat,

Yeah, I know. But the BA is pretty much all about meritocracy and people who did well in school...and their Spanish speaking gardeners, nannies, house cleaners, pool boy, courier, etc. And the latter are pretty much invisible and don't have much of a voice. So it's no surprise that school districts and name brand schools come up a lot in discussion.

Allah

that thread on your link is just bizarre to read. The real face of human greed and pain...

An old Chinese saying: You'll find beautiful women and gold in books.

It's so true. Just look at Playboy.

that thread on your link is just bizarre to read. The real face of human greed and pain…

Yes, but nevertheless very entertaining! I love reading about flippers getting burned. It gives me great satisfaction as if I had revenge on someone who did me wrong. These flippers screwed up the whole meaning of the "American Dream", now they are going to pay the price.

I love the way she just keeps on shrieking "HELP ME", without actually taking the time to listen to what people are telling her. That, and bitching about the 4% commission (when she owes 850K) and keeps on wittering about how they're priced 'at market value'.

Drop the price!

Go on, go on, go on, you will, you will, you will!!

(OK, only people who've watched "Father Ted" will have any idea what I mean by that last comment. Sometimes its hard to be a dual citizen...)

allah,

The best is the advice to basically cut an illegal side deal:

You might even talk to the builders agent on the side - take her out for a cocktail and make it worth her while to send a buyer your way...just maybe....

And people wonder why we use pejoratives when referring to realtors(tm)? Deciding to use an attorney and skip the agent altogether was the best decision I ever made.

allah,

Haha. If these people bought in Vallejo 2 yrs ago, they ought to have some equity in the house...unless they HELOCed it all to finance the husband's "career" and their "lifestyle".

Notice how they didn't think about selling until the 2 yrs have passed and the market was no longer going up.

Yup, I have no pity for them at all.

the emphasis on college is ridiculous. its value has been enormously eroded even for those who have attended the elite universities. in europe there is more emphasis on trade schools. it is already common knowledge that very competetent scientists, engineers, etc have been trained overseas. why not pursue education overseas and learn a second language?

Notice how they didn’t think about selling until the 2 yrs have passed and the market was no longer going up.

Yes, the "24-month club" as DinOR likes to call it. Funny how floppers scream bloody murder if anyone even suggests eliminating or restricting the home sale capital gains exemption, then turn around and tell you it "has nothing to do" with prices skyrocketing over the past several years.

Cajun,

Yeah. The fact is that much of the liberal arts and even hard science requirements can be learnt without a tenured professor. A community college course with a competent instructor or a self learning program will get the same kind of results. It's only when the college student moves on to creativity activities (like trying to write a publishable paper or design a house) that you need professors to come in and help the student out of dead ends.

Meanwhile, job skills like getting along with people at work or writing a resume are creative acts and require a lot of practice. It would be nice to have the kids ready for the work force when they're out, rather than flounder through the first couple years of work (at really low wages, partly because they don't really have the job skills for better paying work) figuring this stuff out.

I'm a product od Community Colleges...well, recently anyway.

I got my BSc in the UK eons ago, and wanted to retrain as 3D graphics/web design/animator and was lucky to work literally next door one of the best 3D schools in L.A (Santa Monica College - Academy of Entertainment Technology).

Personally I have nothing but praise for the place.
I could have done the same courses at UCLA, but the difference in price was staggering, and to be honest, the quality of the teaching and the resources were much better at SMC-AET.
If you compare $800 a semester (UCLA) with $18 a unit (SMC-AET) then only someone with money to burn, or a severe wish to "keep up with the Jones'" would go for UCLA.
OK, I already have a degree, so the retraining was more for my personal education than academic ladder-climbing, but it seems a pity that people think Community Colleges are 'second class'.

On the subject of 'life classes'..(not art!) I was forced to do Home Economics at school; what a pointless, pointless waste of time!
All we did was learn how cook bland and inedible food, sew nightgowns we'd never wear and learn how to make lampshades!
How I wish, looking back on it now, that we'd had some lessons in how to balance chequebooks, how interest rates worked and to calculate things like mortgage/car/loan payments.

It seems criminal to let young people out in the world and pressure them to consume, yet not give them the tools to do it wisely or with forethought.

speedingpullet,

You bring up a good point. Anyone in the BA taken classes in a cheap non-UC/Stanford/U Santa Clara course and enjoyed the experience? I personally wouldn't mind taking some horticulture classes when I have the time and opportunity.

cajun,

I'm certainly not looking for horticulture classes for a college credit, it's more a matter of personal interest and maybe branching back into a career area that I'm really passionate about.

SQT,

Coming from the land of private colleges and $20K+ state U tuitions (Virginia and MD), even the UC system is a bargain. I took a couple Berkeley summer classes one summer as an out of state student and still found them remarkably affordable.

One thing I'd think about, if I had kids, is to move to Georgia when my kids get close to college age. They offer a full ride for in state students and their university system is pretty good.

SQT,

I go back and forth. I think it's actually far more likely that I'd move to Canada or Australia if I planned to have children. (Provided my strike it rich and send my kids to Exeter doesn't quite work out). It's not just the education costs, it's also the medical costs and the general culture of American public schools and the closemindedness I see all around this society. I've spent all the years of my life in China and US, two countries so big that they pretend like the rest of the World doesn't exist. I want a bit more intimate and globally aware society for my kids.

SQT,

I think your kids will grow up terrific and globally aware even if they don't travel too much. There's just so much out there on the internet, in books, and in classes. Those things all fine tune awareness and sensitivity to new experiences. You show that awareness when you talk about your time in Japan Nope, I don't think your kids will turn into the sort of ugly Americans that DS has generalized about.

One thing I'd highly recommend, especially while your kids are young, is to travel to see more of the national parks. Newsfreak seems to have really enjoyed travelling with her family to see the parks and I too have enjoyed the national parks, especially on the Colorado Plateau. The scenery is just so amazing and I've learnt so much just by talking to people I meet and by hiking the trails.

PS - I finally went through editing my pictures, here's some highlights

http://tinyurl.com/enlle

Wow - great photos!

Yosemite, Bryce, Zion and Arches?

North AZ/South UT is one of the most amazing landscapes I've ever seen. I could go back there every year and never get bored.

speedingpullet,

The set is pulled from all my digital pictures. So there's some pictures from Yosemite, Lassen, China, Death Valley, Columbia River Gorge, and Berkeley pictures too.

Here's a longer but slightly better labelled album

http://tinyurl.com/gln2v

SQT,

It would be terrific. If you do plan to go. My rec would be to avoid July and August, they're hot and are the primary flash flood season.

Also, check out these four sites for more pictures and info.

http://www.zionnational-park.com/

http://terragalleria.com/

(pictures from all over, with lots of pictures from all US national parks)

http://www.canyoneeringusa.com/utah/zion/

(mostly technical canyons but some info on family style hikes and general info)

http://www.climb-utah.com/

Check the nps.gov site for details. November is probably fine most of the Colorado Plateau except Grand Canyon North Rim, Cedar Breaks, and a couple other high altitude places.

It's even better if you can drive there in your SUV. There's a lot of unpaved roads in the area, many are fine with low clearance 2wd, but 4wd tend to take you to the most interesting places.