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FuckedCounty.com "dead pool" revisited


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2006 Aug 2, 5:00am   18,811 views  234 comments

by HARM   ➕follow (0)   💰tip   ignore  

housing dead pool

Ok, folks, the DQ numbers for June, 2006 are all in, so this is as good a time as any to see how we did on our "FuckedCounty.com" predictions from 1 year ago. Those of you who were around back then and posted predictions can click here to see how your forecasts compared to actual results. I will post my own here to get things started:

Note: we were looking at the Year-over-Year (YoY) price changes.

HARM Says:

August 5th, 2005 at 9:44 pm e
SCAL
(-)10-19% San Bernardino
--- actual result: +14%
(-)10-19% Riverside
--- actual result: +7.4%
(-)20-29% San Diego
--- actual result: -1.0%
(-)10-19% OC
--- actual result: +7.1%
(-)0-9% LA
--- actual result: +8.8%
(-)0-9% Ventura
--- actual result: +7.4%

NCAL
(-)0-9% San Francisco
--- actual result: +2.4%
(-)10-19% Santa Clara
--- actual result: +6.0%
(-)10-19% Sacramento
--- actual result: -1.3% (had to pull it from here)
(-)0-9% San Mateo
--- actual result: +0.9%
(-)0-9% Alameda
--- actual result: +2.1%

Wow! Incredible how CLOSE I was to actual YoY declines, isn't it??

Alright, in my humble defense, I can say this was relatively early along in my "bubble awareness" development. I had only been posting ~1 month, and August, 2005 probably marked the peak of my most stridently bearish phase. There were also many who predicted even larger drops than I. It also hadn't fully sunk in just how long debt manias (and ultra-lax lending standards) could persist or how sticky prices might be on the way down (FB escalation of commitment). Considering current market momentum, such drops might still be possible by end of 2007, but I doubt any sooner.

Discuss, enjoy...
HARM

#housing

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225   astrid   2006 Aug 4, 6:45am  

Cajun,

Yeah. The fact is that much of the liberal arts and even hard science requirements can be learnt without a tenured professor. A community college course with a competent instructor or a self learning program will get the same kind of results. It's only when the college student moves on to creativity activities (like trying to write a publishable paper or design a house) that you need professors to come in and help the student out of dead ends.

Meanwhile, job skills like getting along with people at work or writing a resume are creative acts and require a lot of practice. It would be nice to have the kids ready for the work force when they're out, rather than flounder through the first couple years of work (at really low wages, partly because they don't really have the job skills for better paying work) figuring this stuff out.

226   speedingpullet   2006 Aug 4, 8:44am  

I'm a product od Community Colleges...well, recently anyway.

I got my BSc in the UK eons ago, and wanted to retrain as 3D graphics/web design/animator and was lucky to work literally next door one of the best 3D schools in L.A (Santa Monica College - Academy of Entertainment Technology).

Personally I have nothing but praise for the place.
I could have done the same courses at UCLA, but the difference in price was staggering, and to be honest, the quality of the teaching and the resources were much better at SMC-AET.
If you compare $800 a semester (UCLA) with $18 a unit (SMC-AET) then only someone with money to burn, or a severe wish to "keep up with the Jones'" would go for UCLA.
OK, I already have a degree, so the retraining was more for my personal education than academic ladder-climbing, but it seems a pity that people think Community Colleges are 'second class'.

On the subject of 'life classes'..(not art!) I was forced to do Home Economics at school; what a pointless, pointless waste of time!
All we did was learn how cook bland and inedible food, sew nightgowns we'd never wear and learn how to make lampshades!
How I wish, looking back on it now, that we'd had some lessons in how to balance chequebooks, how interest rates worked and to calculate things like mortgage/car/loan payments.

It seems criminal to let young people out in the world and pressure them to consume, yet not give them the tools to do it wisely or with forethought.

227   astrid   2006 Aug 4, 9:01am  

speedingpullet,

You bring up a good point. Anyone in the BA taken classes in a cheap non-UC/Stanford/U Santa Clara course and enjoyed the experience? I personally wouldn't mind taking some horticulture classes when I have the time and opportunity.

228   astrid   2006 Aug 4, 11:41am  

cajun,

I'm certainly not looking for horticulture classes for a college credit, it's more a matter of personal interest and maybe branching back into a career area that I'm really passionate about.

SQT,

Coming from the land of private colleges and $20K+ state U tuitions (Virginia and MD), even the UC system is a bargain. I took a couple Berkeley summer classes one summer as an out of state student and still found them remarkably affordable.

One thing I'd think about, if I had kids, is to move to Georgia when my kids get close to college age. They offer a full ride for in state students and their university system is pretty good.

229   astrid   2006 Aug 4, 11:19pm  

SQT,

I go back and forth. I think it's actually far more likely that I'd move to Canada or Australia if I planned to have children. (Provided my strike it rich and send my kids to Exeter doesn't quite work out). It's not just the education costs, it's also the medical costs and the general culture of American public schools and the closemindedness I see all around this society. I've spent all the years of my life in China and US, two countries so big that they pretend like the rest of the World doesn't exist. I want a bit more intimate and globally aware society for my kids.

230   astrid   2006 Aug 6, 7:44pm  

SQT,

I think your kids will grow up terrific and globally aware even if they don't travel too much. There's just so much out there on the internet, in books, and in classes. Those things all fine tune awareness and sensitivity to new experiences. You show that awareness when you talk about your time in Japan Nope, I don't think your kids will turn into the sort of ugly Americans that DS has generalized about.

One thing I'd highly recommend, especially while your kids are young, is to travel to see more of the national parks. Newsfreak seems to have really enjoyed travelling with her family to see the parks and I too have enjoyed the national parks, especially on the Colorado Plateau. The scenery is just so amazing and I've learnt so much just by talking to people I meet and by hiking the trails.

PS - I finally went through editing my pictures, here's some highlights

http://tinyurl.com/enlle

231   speedingpullet   2006 Aug 7, 12:19am  

Wow - great photos!

Yosemite, Bryce, Zion and Arches?

North AZ/South UT is one of the most amazing landscapes I've ever seen. I could go back there every year and never get bored.

232   astrid   2006 Aug 7, 5:14am  

speedingpullet,

The set is pulled from all my digital pictures. So there's some pictures from Yosemite, Lassen, China, Death Valley, Columbia River Gorge, and Berkeley pictures too.

Here's a longer but slightly better labelled album

http://tinyurl.com/gln2v

233   astrid   2006 Aug 7, 5:34am  

SQT,

It would be terrific. If you do plan to go. My rec would be to avoid July and August, they're hot and are the primary flash flood season.

Also, check out these four sites for more pictures and info.

http://www.zionnational-park.com/

http://terragalleria.com/

(pictures from all over, with lots of pictures from all US national parks)

http://www.canyoneeringusa.com/utah/zion/

(mostly technical canyons but some info on family style hikes and general info)

http://www.climb-utah.com/

234   astrid   2006 Aug 7, 10:12am  

Check the nps.gov site for details. November is probably fine most of the Colorado Plateau except Grand Canyon North Rim, Cedar Breaks, and a couple other high altitude places.

It's even better if you can drive there in your SUV. There's a lot of unpaved roads in the area, many are fine with low clearance 2wd, but 4wd tend to take you to the most interesting places.

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