patrick.net

Ok, folks, the DQ numbers for June, 2006 are all in, so this is as good a time as any to see how we did on our "FuckedCounty.com" predictions from 1 year ago. Those of you who were around back then and posted predictions can click here to see how your forecasts compared to actual results. I will post my own here to get things started:

Note: we were looking at the Year-over-Year (YoY) price changes.

HARM Says:

August 5th, 2005 at 9:44 pm e
SCAL
(-)10-19% San Bernardino
--- actual result: +14%
(-)10-19% Riverside
--- actual result: +7.4%
(-)20-29% San Diego
--- actual result: -1.0%
(-)10-19% OC
--- actual result: +7.1%
(-)0-9% LA
--- actual result: +8.8%
(-)0-9% Ventura
--- actual result: +7.4%

NCAL
(-)0-9% San Francisco
--- actual result: +2.4%
(-)10-19% Santa Clara
--- actual result: +6.0%
(-)10-19% Sacramento
--- actual result: -1.3% (had to pull it from here)
(-)0-9% San Mateo
--- actual result: +0.9%
(-)0-9% Alameda
--- actual result: +2.1%

Wow! Incredible how CLOSE I was to actual YoY declines, isn't it??

Alright, in my humble defense, I can say this was relatively early along in my "bubble awareness" development. I had only been posting ~1 month, and August, 2005 probably marked the peak of my most stridently bearish phase. There were also many who predicted even larger drops than I. It also hadn't fully sunk in just how long debt manias (and ultra-lax lending standards) could persist or how sticky prices might be on the way down (FB escalation of commitment). Considering current market momentum, such drops might still be possible by end of 2007, but I doubt any sooner.

Discuss, enjoy...
HARM

#housing