patrick.net

tatupu70 says

OK–I’m not going to belabor this. The data he quotes is from the past. I interpret his quote to reference the future–not sure how one can be talking about the present. In fact he uses the verb tense is going to. I don’t know why we are even arguing about this–it’s completely ridiculous.

Because uber-bulls have been trying to discredit Roubini for years and they're always wrong.

The BBC has a story on the real estate market in the USA ... claiming the downturn will continue until 2013. Personally, I think that is optimistic.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-11944737?source=patrick.net#page-bookmark-links-head

The wide-ranging effects of the continuous collapse in housing prices:

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-12-08/plunging-home-prices-fuel-property-tax-appeals-swamping-u-s-cities-towns.html?source=patrick.net#related_categories_tags_top

Do I have a problem if I agree with APOCALYPSEFUCK?

APOCALYPSEFUCK says

It’s going to keep sailing down back to 1970s prices and lower as the US population discovers there are no new jobs to replace the old jobs, most of which were precipitates of a fantasy economy, like real estate brokering and Web site development.
We’ll be chopping up houses for fire wood soon and no one will have any doubts about what is more valuable when they’re depending upon scrap houses for heat.
Plant potatoes and teach wife and kids to fight and kill with a bayonet for the day when the ammo runs out.

You're hilarious! You really need to stop watching The Road on loop all day long! Or at least invite Troy over for some company. The two of you can discuss what a menace to society landlords are.

No need for bayonets, I can teach you how to make your own reload ammo for your guns and riffles.

I'm hoping a taxi to SFO is a workable plan.

Though relocating to Bellingham is in fact a close 2nd. if I moved to Point Roberts, it might even be doable to live in the US and work in Canada . . .

As they often say in the mutual fund industry..When everyone says sell, that's when it's time to buy...Scanning through all these post with all the gloom and doom mentioned, sure makes you wonder...must be buy time.

lazz234 says

As they often say in the mutual fund industry..When everyone says sell, that’s when it’s time to buy…Scanning through all these post with all the gloom and doom mentioned, sure makes you wonder…must be buy time.

Then you should go buy. Especially in the mid-high market 400K+.

See how well that works out for ya.

lazz234 says

As they often say in the mutual fund industry..When everyone says sell, that’s when it’s time to buy…Scanning through all these post with all the gloom and doom mentioned, sure makes you wonder…must be buy time.

Thats not true. When everyone was screaming to get off titanic onto a life boat they were right. Skeptics didn't survive.

Housing isn't an investment industry either, just for a while it turned into a tulip mania which crashed.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tulip_mania

lazz234 says

As they often say in the mutual fund industry..When everyone says sell, that’s when it’s time to buy…Scanning through all these post with all the gloom and doom mentioned, sure makes you wonder…must be buy time.

I heard a lot of "savvy" investors saying that in 2007 and 2008, talking about the great 15% (from peak) discounts they were getting on their houses. Anybody whose market sophistication is approximated by that strategy deserves to get burned.

Jumbo and Conforming are separate now.

Jumbo Conforming is both too big for the secondary market and GSE-blessed.

http://www.homebuyinginstitute.com/mortgage/jumbo-loan-lenders/

Los Angeles Renter says

I call bullshit on this statement…. Interest rates have fallen a full percent! That and the huge stock market rally from 6000 have stalled a drop in housing. People went from losing half their invested wealth to gaining it all back again in the past few years. (My stock portfolio is UP since 2008 crash). They also can afford to buy about $30,000-$60,000 more house with interest rates at 4%. Yet home prices didn’t rise by that same variable… So someone that waited until now to buy were able to afford more HOME than the person who tried to buy a home in early 2009 at higher interest rates. I don’t know how you don’t call that effectively a drop in price. (If you were a minority all-cash buyer in 2009 maybe you got a better deal.. but that’s a fraction of the home buying population.)

That is the dumbest post I've seen in a while. You don't call it a drop in price because prices didn't drop.

In this report, you'll see that prices fell by $1 trillion in 2009 (the year the Duck Dude says real estate "bottomed"). In 2010, the losses will hit $1.7 trillion. In my opinion, 2011 will be even worse. The shadow inventory continues to grow and mortgage rates are rising. That's a very bad combination that will not support stabilizing prices let alone increases.

http://www.azcentral.com/arizonarepublic/business/articles/2010/12/15/20101215biz-catherine-house-bleak.html?source=patrick.net#fbLike

Same houses that have been empty for 3 years are still empty, plus now I see many more. I say 10 years before we hit bottom!

If I see a padlock, nowadays I see it just like that for long long time. I guess prices will head up even though they are unoccupied. LOL.

bubblesitter says

If I see a padlock, nowadays I see it just like that for long long time. I guess prices will head up even though they are unoccupied. LOL.

Excess supply along with higher interests rates equates to only one thing; higher prices. Such is the declared, absolute, irrefutable dogma by one daffy Duck.

Every time you read a news account on housing, it's more bad news:

http://www.centralvalleybusinesstimes.com/stories/001/?source=patrick.net&ID=17108

RayAmerica says

Every time you read a news account on housing, it’s more bad news:

LOL! thats because we had way way too much good news over a 10 year period.
Hang overs are a bitch.

Yep .. those housing prices sure "bottomed" out in 2009. The evidense keeps pouring in to suppot it:

http://centralvalleybusinesstimes.com/stories/001/?source=patrick.net&ID=17117

tatupu70 says

robertoaribas says

Housing is consumptive behavior, not productive behaviour,

One man’s consumption is another’s production. Not sure how you can separate the two…

I just ate an apple. Who needs the poop?

When I first commented in this thread, the house I bought September for 160K, was listed for 259K in February.

bubblesitter says

tatupu70 says

robertoaribas says

Housing is consumptive behavior, not productive behaviour,

One man’s consumption is another’s production. Not sure how you can separate the two…

I just ate an apple. Who needs the poop?

I know you're joking, but the production was in planting the tree, picking the apple, transporting it to your grocery store, etc. You eating an apple creates jobs for many...

I must have missed something; I thought the bottom was 2009??

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Home-prices-hit-postbust-lows-apf-3408768237.html?x=0&sec=topStories&pos=main&asset=&ccode=

4 little factoids a certain little Duckie Dude refuses to consider:

http://www.gpb.org/news/2011/02/22/4-reasons-home-prices-are-likely-to-keep-falling?source=patrick.net

2021.

By next business cycle bottom it will crash even further and begin to match reality, unless government finds another creative way to keep it up. I do not believe it will level to reasonable until then.

i think 2011 will be the bottom, unless of course bernanke prints another 2 trillion.

realistically, the market was overproduced and oversold, and it will take time to work it out.

Don't you think that somebody who sais that real estate is flat, where it's actually down 33% is delusional?

dunnross says

If gold is not a currency, than why are all central banks holding tons of it, and accumulate more as we speak?

You would have to ask the central bankers, but I would guess it's because gold has served as an inflation hedge in the past. Regardless, it is certainly NOT a currency

dunnross says

Fiat money has no intrinsic value. Every fiat currency ever known to man, including $USD, has lost all of its buying power in 100 years or less. Gold has kept its value since the war in Babylon.

I thought we had been over this already. Every currency currently in use is a fiat currency. They all continue to have value. I know when I bought groceries, the cashier gladly took my $$ and gave me food in return. Did you not have a similar experience? Fiat currencies are the winners. Gold has failed as a currency.

tatupu70 says

dunnross says

If gold is not a currency, than why are all central banks holding tons of it, and accumulate more as we speak?

You would have to ask the central bankers, but I would guess it’s because gold has served as an inflation hedge in the past. Regardless, it is certainly NOT a currency
a href=”/?p=28625#comment-720404″>dunnross says

Fiat money has no intrinsic value. Every fiat currency ever known to man, including $USD, has lost all of its buying power in 100 years or less. Gold has kept its value since the war in Babylon.

I thought we had been over this already. Every currency currently in use is a fiat currency. They all continue to have value. I know when I bought groceries, the cashier gladly took my $$ and gave me food in return. Did you not have a similar experience? Fiat currencies are the winners. Gold has failed as a currency.

Yes, central bankers who create "fiat currencies" out of thin air, need a hedge against their own fiat currency debasement by buying and holding real currency (gold). So, central bankers obviously understand that gold is currency, but they need to feed people like tatapu70 the propaganda that gold is not currency, and "fiat currency", which is the funny money which they are creating is.

dunnross says

Yes, central bankers who create “fiat currencies” out of thin air, need a hedge against their own fiat currency debasement by buying and holding real currency (gold). So, central bankers obviously understand that gold is currency, but they need to feed people like tatapu70 the propaganda that gold is not currency, and “fiat currency”, which is the funny money which they are creating is.

You obviously don't understand what currency is. Do yourself a favor and look it up, then come back.

Here's a clue. Next time you go to Circle K to buy gas and a soda, try to pay with 3/100 of an ounce of gold and let me know how that goes.

I had an Eagle that said "50 dollars" on it. Legal tender, I think.

Sounds like currency to me.

I don't know about the Bay Area and coastal CA at large, but I do know that several towns in Marin County that I am interested in are already seeing prices below 2009 and will continue in that trend for a while I suspect... yes, there are exceptions, but that is what I am seeing...

house prices will normalize or bottom when the wage / house price ratio normalizes or reaches historic balances... don't think we're quite there yet and we were not yet there in 2009, either... most of the action since 2009 were transactions driven by pent up housing fear about having been left out the last time around.. that fear is still wide-spread throughout BA real estate circles when everyone who had not bought into the BS and mania from 2002 on thought they'd never own their own piece of the pie... I think that pent up fear is subsiding... clearly the notion that housing prices only go up is now a fallacy.. when people start to act more rationally, which will allow historic relationships and price drivers to come back, prices will retract accordingly...

sybrib says

I had an Eagle that said “50 dollars” on it. Legal tender, I think.
Sounds like currency to me.

It WAS legal tender. No longer...

Like I said--gold died as a currency. Fiat currency was the winner.

tatupu70 says

sybrib says

I had an Eagle that said “50 dollars” on it. Legal tender, I think.

Sounds like currency to me.

It WAS legal tender. No longer…
Like I said–gold died as a currency. Fiat currency was the winner.

"Authorized by the Bullion Coin Act of 1985, American Eagle Gold Bullion Coins quickly became one of the world's leading gold bullion investment coins. Produced from gold mined in the United States, American Eagles are imprinted with their gold content and legal tender "face" value. An American Eagle's value is based on the market price of its metal content, plus a small premium to cover coinage and distribution. "

"Ever since its discovery 5,000 years ago, gold has been treasured for its unmatched luster, beauty and intrinsic value. Today, gold continues to enjoy widespread appeal as an investment and storehouse of value. Gold is an internationally recognized monetary and financial asset held in reserve by major governments. It is so rare that all the gold ever mined could fit into a cube measuring just 20 yards on each side. Most importantly, gold can play a role in diversifying an investment portfolio, since it can move independently of stocks and bonds. What's more, gold is a tangible asset - one whose beauty and artistry you can literally hold in your hands. When purchased in the form of legal tender bullion coins, gold can be affordable, as well as easy to buy and store. Americans purchase more American Eagle Gold Bullion Coins than any other gold coin. Produced by the United States Mint, Department of the Treasury, these coins are available in four denominations. "

http://www.usmint.gov/mint_programs/american_eagles/?action=american_eagle_gold

" * The American Gold Eagle is considered legal tender in the United States with a face value of $50 though the intrinsic value of its gold content is much higher."

http://goldsilver.com/buy-online/american-gold-eagles-1-oz/

Tatupu - you should be smacked for that one.

robertoaribas says

Lets price homes in terms of how many foot long subs at subway they cost…

With or without the chips/drink ?

joshuatrio says

Tatupu - you should be smacked for that one.

Consider me smacked. (ouch).

tatupu70 says

sybrib says

I had an Eagle that said “50 dollars” on it. Legal tender, I think.

Sounds like currency to me.

It WAS legal tender. No longer…
Like I said–gold died as a currency. Fiat currency was the winner.

Yes, it's not clear to everyone throughout the world that the $USD is the clear winner, especially since it already lost 97% of it's value since the formation of the federal reserve. I guess they don't have Circle K stores everywhere. In Vietnam, you won't be able to buy a house, unless you bring a 1kg gold bar with you. In India, you can buy pretty much everything with gold. Even in the US, some banks have started to accept gold as collateral.

Nomograph says

dunnross says

In gold oz (which is the only currency which the FED cannot print at whim), both national and CA coastal prices are now more than 33% below the 2009 price (see chart above). Anybody who sais that 2009 was the bottom is completely deranged or delusional or both of the above.

I nominate this for the “Stupidest said on Patrick.net” thread.

If you held gold instead of real estate, since 2009, you wouldn't consider that remark as stupid at all.

Nomograph says

dunnross says

If you held gold instead of real estate, since 2009, you wouldn’t consider that remark as stupid at all.

Yes I would.
Your claim that housing has crashed 33% since 2009 is one of the stupidest things I’ve heard here. How can you expect to be taken seriously if you make these kind of ridiculous statements?

It seems stupid to you, because you are not even smart enough to look at the chart, and calculate it yourself. In 2009 an average house in the US cost 300 gold oz's. Currently it costs 199 gold oz.
(300-199)/300 = 33.66%

Nomograph says

dunnross says

If you held gold instead of real estate, since 2009, you wouldn’t consider that remark as stupid at all.

Yes I would.
Your claim that housing has crashed 33% since 2009 is one of the stupidest things I’ve heard here. How can you expect to be taken seriously if you make these kind of ridiculous statements?

In fact, since the peak of the bubble, an average house in US has already lost 76% of it's value in gold oz.
(830-199)/830 = 76.02%