patrick.net

sybrib says

dunnross says

Nomograph says

dunnross says

If you held gold instead of real estate, since 2009, you wouldn’t consider that remark as stupid at all.

Yes I would.
Your claim that housing has crashed 33% since 2009 is one of the stupidest things I’ve heard here. How can you expect to be taken seriously if you make these kind of ridiculous statements?

It seems stupid to you, because you are not even smart enough to look at the chart, and calculate it yourself. In 2009 an average house in the US cost 300 gold oz’s. Currently it costs 199 gold oz.
(300-199)/300 = 33.66%

Well I was looking at it more in terms of how many units of CSU/UC “tuition” my ounces would pay, for my kids. Looks like the purchasing power of bullion is not keeping up with it. Fringe benefits for the Nomographs of the World are expensive.

The silver bullion definitely more than keeps up, even with tuition. House prices are down 75% since 2009, in terms of the "poor man's gold".

Except you were already calling bottom in 2008.

since most of today's "sellers" are Banks in the land of Far-Far-Away, there is no real "seller" concern over the selling price. All, as in 100%, completo, ALL of the sales prices being used to sell REOs is drempt up by REpukes in the area of the REO. And they(REpukes) all, as in 100%, completo, ALL engage in PRICE-FIXING through direct colusion and a fine little ditty called "BeePeeOh" BPO ... Broker Price Opinion ... that BPO is how the SELLER (bank) gets their ASKING PRICE (Local RE wet dream amount) in the first place ..... so when you make an offer that is called "low ball" by the same pukes that fix the price, tell them to stuff it and submit it of you will find another leach that will. The "seller" has no idea what the market is here, or even in Far-Far-Away, so they could give a crap what you offer ... the only crabby patty in the pile is the REpuke.

That "housing bottomed in 2009" is looking more and more like a dark hole that a certain Duck fell into and can't find his way out.

http://www.irvinehousingblog.com/blog/comments/new-home-sales-down-80-from-peak-down-18.6-last-year-down-11.1-last-month/?source=patrick.net#blogtitle

investing_reality says

Median price of new homes sold in USA:
- in January 1997 was $145,000
- in January 2011 was $230,600

$145,000 x 7.82% = $11,339
$230,600 x 4.75% = $10,953

Sorry, Patrick. That was needlessly harsh. I actually love the website. I just don't like the forum software as much as what you had before. There's the limitations of the search function, which is really inconvenient. Other than that, it's just klunky and weird compared to the other format. The first post of a thread is visually odd. The line that says how many comments there are is bolded and in a larger font than the actual first post, drawing the eye away from the post and making it look like the first post isn't even part of the thread. And then I don't see any way to quote the first post other than typing in the code manually. I don't know why there's a link to the comments when they're right there under the first post. All it does is move you down a few lines on the page. It seems more like a format for a news article as opposed to a forum thread. And then adding images is a bit klunky as well. Seems like you have to save the image to your hard drive and then upload it to the website. Other forum software lets you just insert the image URL and show it directly.

I'm sure none of that is your fault, and it's nothing insurmountable (except the search function); it's just not as visually appealing or user friendly as the old format.

Also, everything that was posted on the old forum seems to be lost. It would be fun to go back and see what people were saying in 2007-2008, but those posts don't seem to exist anymore. You can search back that far, but there isn't much there. I remember there being a lot more going on in the forum at that time.

zzyzzx says

Exactly where is this search feature?

Top of every page. The dropdown lets you search prices, rents, or this forum. Pick the “Search Forum” option.

I just found it. That's a pretty non-intuitive place to put it. I mean, I've never seen a search feature placed on a fourm like that!

Thanks for the suggestions! I started a new thread about stuff to fix on the forum, here:

http://patrick.net/?p=637969

This thread is just getting way too long. I can feel the database sweating every time I load this thread.

ChrisLA says

Thats one of the reasons I think housing will stay ballooned for a several more years. Government is trying to prolong the process of the crash, and they are doing so. Just it is still going against the free market forces making it a slow fall.

Good point Chris. All this artificial pumping and re-pumping of the bubble is only prolonging the inevitable. Even with all their forced manipulations and maneuverings, foreclosures continue to swamp the market in record numbers.

Home prices are in a time machine going backwards at break neck speeds .... all the way to the 1890's! Someone, quick, turn the dial back to Duck Time .... 2009!!

http://www.csmonitor.com/Business/Paper-Economy/2011/0303/Home-prices-falling-to-level-of-1890s?source=patrick.net#mainColumn

RayAmerica says

Home prices are in a time machine going backwards at break neck speeds …. all the way to the 1890’s! Someone, quick, turn the dial back to Duck Time …. 2009!!

Yep! the vested interest certainly want price to stay flat...

"Further, while nominally (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) home prices may have gone a long way into correction territory, in real terms (i.e. inflation adjusted), national home prices are still significantly elevated (possibly by as much as 15%-20%) above long-run norms."

"This paint’s a pretty clear picture… the national home price decline has further to run, possibly as much as 15%-20%, before real prices reach the long-run trend and a level more in-line with fundamentals."

It's an amazing thing, considering most ducks simply quack and quack. Our Duck can quack out of both sides of his quacker.

More troubled waters on Duck Pond:

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Underwater-mortgages-rise-as-apf-1329138840.html?source=patrick.net#y-article-hd

How about three things at once?

See what I mean about this duck paddling in different directions? I'm feeling vertigo and this duck is the cause of it.

thomas.wong1986 says

RayAmerica says

Home prices are in a time machine going backwards at break neck speeds …. all the way to the 1890’s! Someone, quick, turn the dial back to Duck Time …. 2009!!

Yep! the vested interest certainly want price to stay flat…
“Further, while nominally (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) home prices may have gone a long way into correction territory, in real terms (i.e. inflation adjusted), national home prices are still significantly elevated (possibly by as much as 15%-20%) above long-run norms.”
“This paint’s a pretty clear picture… the national home price decline has further to run, possibly as much as 15%-20%, before real prices reach the long-run trend and a level more in-line with fundamentals.”

That's real home prices so higher inflation could take us back to the trend without prices actually falling.

No time soon. See BofA news headline today to create another bureaucratic round file for mortgages. The signers won't have to pay and don't have to pay. So. Their cost is heading towards zero. Are they going to move and buy your asset. No! So, huge market forces pushing housing down. Simply huge. Add in money printing driving inflation and even huge, huge. Oh well. bearmarket was optimistic. In fact, people are still buying houses now. Not the symptom of a bottoming market!!!! When nobody wants to hear the word "house" or "for sale" then you'll be near the bottom (according to Technical Analysis of Stock Trends' notes on how to detect a bottom).

E.g. when this list dries up and nobody comes here any more, then you'll know housing is bottoming!!!

P.S. Of course new houses will continue to sell. Every market consists of smaller markets all the way to the markets of one. Obviously people who can afford it will buy new houses and, duckman be happy, houses in special places like SF. :-) But the 50% in the middle of the market will buy cheaper and cheaper in inflation adjusted terms. Houses will lose value but just not as fast as other holdings might. In the high inflation world our money printers created, loss is all relative.

toothfairy says

so higher inflation could take us back to the trend

Yes, everyone is gonna get a 25% raise in salary/wages because of inflation.

thomas.wong1986 says

toothfairy says

so higher inflation could take us back to the trend

Yes, everyone is gonna get a 25% raise in salary/wages because of inflation.

Please tell my employer!

thomas.wong1986 says

toothfairy says

so higher inflation could take us back to the trend

Yes, everyone is gonna get a 25% raise in salary/wages because of inflation.

I'm just pointing out what it means when "real" housing prices are falling.
So if there's no inflation then prices will fall another 15%-20%

(That's usually not how it works thanks to government attempts to smooth out the cycle).

sorry if it's not what you want to hear but that's just how it goes.

game--

You realize that when someone says they expect the market to be "flat", that doesn't mean that median price or Case Shiller price will remain EXACTLY the same for 5 years, right? There will obviously be some up and some down during that time period.....

toothfairy says

thomas.wong1986 says

toothfairy says

so higher inflation could take us back to the trend

Yes, everyone is gonna get a 25% raise in salary/wages because of inflation.

I’m just pointing out what it means when “real” housing prices are falling.

So if there’s no inflation then prices will fall another 15%-20%
(That’s usually not how it works thanks to government attempts to smooth out the cycle).
sorry if it’s not what you want to hear but that’s just how it goes.

Forces of nature applies to economics as well. So no matter what government attempts, prices will go down. Debt reduction has to happen, no matter what!

This is a dumb question. No one knows where the bottom is and no one will know the answer to this until it has already happened.

toothfairy says

So if there’s no inflation then prices will fall another 15%-20%

Gasoline cost to jump $700 for average household
By Tom Doggett – Wed Mar 9, 4:18 pm ET
WASHINGTON (Reuters) –

"...The average U.S. household will spend about $700 more for gasoline in 2011 than it spent last year, bringing total motor fuel expenses up 28 percent to $3,235, based on an annual pump price of $3.61 a gallon."

The way I see it, dunno about "inflation" but we do have rising prices for some things, which means less money for other things. Like housing costs.

lurking says

This is a dumb question. No one knows where the bottom is and no one will know the answer to this until it has already happened.

Yes you can know the bottom if you wanna. I don't know what other people feel about this but start the price of a CA home from 1995 and keep adding average inflation(typical income increase of a person per year,IMO) to it up to today. Is it where the prices are now? No where close that inflation adjusted numbers in most parts of BA,Orange county and other so called fortress area. Once the income level starts supporting the home prices and banks feel comfortable giving loan to average person with good credit, that's where the bottom is....of course one can hide the reality behind the recent CS indices.

tatupu70 says

game–
You realize that when someone says they expect the market to be “flat”, that doesn’t mean that median price or Case Shiller price will remain EXACTLY the same for 5 years, right? There will obviously be some up and some down during that time period…..

You realize that when someone starts a whole thread based on the premise that prices are going to go UP, and then later says prices will stay flat, that it is a contradiction, right?

lurking says

This is a dumb question. No one knows where the bottom is and no one will know the answer to this until it has already happened.

The bottom, the the fall in the stock market ?

Fundementals! when your paying cash for highly liquid assets of your target investment.

Cash for Cash!

Housing ?

Long term trend line... updated for Q4 2010...

http://www.housingbubblebust.com/OFHEO/Major/NorCal.html

Stockton looks like a buy, finally.

Just look at the prior decades 80s-90s... and the rest will follow.

FHFA graph do you even know what you're looking at?

it only counts loans backed by Fannie and Freddie. Which is fine for low
end Stockton but San Jose especially since
in 2008 they raised conforming loan limit it now includes higher priced
properties. So the numbers are skewed at best.

When this thread has been silent for a month! :-)

tatupu70 says

Los Angeles Renter says

I call bullshit on this statement…. Interest rates have fallen a full percent! That and the huge stock market rally from 6000 have stalled a drop in housing. People went from losing half their invested wealth to gaining it all back again in the past few years. (My stock portfolio is UP since 2008 crash). They also can afford to buy about $30,000-$60,000 more house with interest rates at 4%. Yet home prices didn’t rise by that same variable… So someone that waited until now to buy were able to afford more HOME than the person who tried to buy a home in early 2009 at higher interest rates. I don’t know how you don’t call that effectively a drop in price. (If you were a minority all-cash buyer in 2009 maybe you got a better deal.. but that’s a fraction of the home buying population.)

tatupu70 says:
That is the dumbest post I’ve seen in a while. You don’t call it a drop in price because prices didn’t drop.

Hey Tat,
My statement makes perfect sense... Home prices for average first time home-buyers did fall if the monthly payment for those average americans fell! It's pretty simple...If you're rent drops from $1800 to $1600 a month... Then your rent dropped in price. The monthly payment is primarily what people calculate when deciding on affordability.

THE COST OF BUYING A HOME ON A MONTH to MONTH basis dropped between 2009 and 2010 as interest rates dropped to near 4% from 5%.

I don't know how you don't understand this translates to a drop in home prices for those who sign up for fixed rate mortgages in at 4% in 2010.. vs. those that bought at 5% in 2009? This is what stalled the drop in housing. Now that interest rates are rising again we shall see what the market can really handle....

Should be an interesting summer buying season this 2011.... If interest rates hold steady at 5%-ish all summer... I"m predicting a pretty brisk market for Los Angeles area. If we climb to 6% I'm seeing up-front demand as rates are rising.. Then an avalanche of cancelled loans and hard stall out as rates settle around 6%.

People are STILL maxing themselves out to afford in the Los Angeles area....

toothfairy says

FHFA graph do you even know what you’re looking at?
it only counts loans backed by Fannie and Freddie. Which is fine for low

end Stockton but San Jose especially since

in 2008 they raised conforming loan limit it now includes higher priced

properties. So the numbers are skewed at best.

So Stockton isn't a buy?

Los Angeles Renter says

I don’t know how you don’t understand this translates to a drop in home prices for those who sign up for fixed rate mortgages in at 4% in 2010.. vs. those that bought at 5% in 2009? This is what stalled the drop in housing. Now that interest rates are rising again we shall see what the market can really handle….

I guess I'm just old school. A drop in home prices is when the price of homes goes down.

Stockton is not a buy for me because there's nothing there. You can find good deals even in San Jose
it just takes a little more work.

i wouldn't base my buying decision on that chart

The news keeps pouring in on housing, and it keeps going from bad to worse. The "bottom of 2009" is looking more and more like an old Twilight Zone episode.

http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2011/03/five-years-of-housing-supply-and-5-or-6.html?source=patrick.net

gameisrigged says

What Gore said is true. The right-wingers claimed he said he “invented” the internet, which is false, and is something that Gore never said.

Example how sound bites dont work.

"Invent" or "Create" which is interchangable was a poor choice of words.
Had he stated.. "I took the initiative in creating 'legal framwork in Congress' regarding Internet" would not have been a big issue. But he overstated his contribution. Anyway the question was regarding his Demo Opponent Bill Bradly.

thomas.wong1986 says

gameisrigged says

What Gore said is true. The right-wingers claimed he said he “invented” the internet, which is false, and is something that Gore never said.

Example how sound bites dont work.
“Invent” or “Create” which is interchangable was a poor choice of words.

Had he stated.. “I took the initiative in creating ‘legal framwork in Congress’ regarding Internet” would not have been a big issue. But he overstated his contribution. Anyway the question was regarding his Demo Opponent Bill Bradly.

I think that's splitting hairs. It's obvious he wasn't claiming to have created the technology; he was claiming to have taken the initiative in allowing the internet to be created. The crux of the matter isn't whether there's a difference between 'invent' and 'create', it's the difference between "I took the initiative in creating" and "I created". Those aren't the same thing. I suppose he could have used more passive wording such as "I took the initiative in the internet being created", but what do you want? It was an interview, so he had to come up with something off-the-cuff (which he is much, much better at than George W. Bush, by the way).

I mean, if I said, "Roosevelt took the initiative in building an atomic bomb", wouldn't it be fairly obvious that he didn't actually INVENT the atomic bomb, but rather put things politically in motion that resulted in it happening?

I wonder what impact the collapse of the first time home buyer market will have on home prices? Maybe it's time for Obama to enact another "1st. Time Home Buyer Stimulus" con? The first two programs were abysmal failures, maybe the third one will be the charm? What do you think Duckie Dude?

http://blogs.wsj.com/developments/2011/03/07/report-first-time-buyers-fade-from-market/?source=patrick.net#blognav_next

RayAmerica says

I wonder what impact the collapse of the first time home buyer market will have on home prices? Maybe it’s time for Obama to enact another “1st. Time Home Buyer Stimulus” con? The first two programs were abysmal failures, maybe the third one will be the charm? What do you think Duckie Dude?
http://blogs.wsj.com/developments/2011/03/07/report-first-time-buyers-fade-from-market/?source=patrick.net#blognav_next

Nah! Remember he said "money to buy the homes is already in the system","middle class does not matter" ? So investors will keep the system running without any expectations of decent return. :)