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U.S. Not out of the Deflation Woods just yet...


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2010 Feb 23, 11:54pm   3,358 views  12 comments

by Vicente   ➕follow (1)   💰tip   ignore  

For those of you thinking "buy now!" on that house so you can the tax credit & inflation hedge:

Bloomberg: U.S. Not out of the Deflation Woods just yet....

Nice charts. M2 has fallen off a cliff since last year.

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1   RayAmerica   2010 Feb 24, 12:25am  

When considering the entire economic picture, we have a long deflationary road ahead. If you have cash, there will be so many bargains in the future, you'll want to buy practically everything. The economic house of cards they continue to prop up has a day of reckoning coming. Bernanke, Geitner and friends will be exposed for the frauds they've been all along. Somewhere along the line, deflation will end and inflationary forces will kick in … therein lies the profits for those that will be in a position to take advantage of the mess these people have created.

2   Done!   2010 Feb 24, 3:36am  

The Net Free reserves explains why, banks are having Bruno and His nephew Ant short for Anthony, pull a truck up in the middle of the night and gingerly pull out the cabinets and abscond with the appliances.
It is obviously a deliberate altercation done with care to preserve the integrity of the asset the house. Jilted foreclosed home owners leave gaping holes, and the cabinets they just bust them up and cut pipes and pull wire out of the walls behind. Not a clean prepped kitchen remodel job behind.

What I couldn't figure out is why, well I knew why they were sabotaging potential homes that would set on the market, and go through the carousel of FHA applicants, would surely beat out any Cash investor price. And by some regulatory Law(I would hope) be obligated to take the highest bidder being the FHA approved applicant.

I didn't understand why the banks felt a pressure to do so, or what was the gain, if not for some sinister plot to control the RE Market.

I get it now.

The banks needed capitol as per Vincent's Bloomberg link, Washington was demanding they loan out money to poor slobs than can ill afford these Mortgages at a dirt cheap interest rate, and the Mac and Mae will cover their back. But to do so, the bank must have the reserves which they didn't have. So to raise money for these reserves. They sold off the crappiest most distressed homes to investors, who were more than eager to snap them up.

This is why banks are also slow to act on Shortsale offers. They don't have to sell these homes to get started right away to show those would be new homeowners interest payments, on the books to show reserves. They have a steady flow of capitol, streaming in, while hanging on to the best assets.

But this proves even more, that the REAL Homeowners aren't getting loans to even buy those investors properties they are trying to flip and keep inflated. The Irony here in Hollywood anyway, is these deals always brings the assets value way below what these flippers are trying to put them back on the market. After they spend 20, 30K to Home Depotise, and ReLowes the property to look like a Mutated McMansoin that was caught in the Teleportator with a Utility Shed. They are lucky if they can get more than they over all spent. According to the tax records and appraisal records.

But none of the real properties aren't moving, and Homeowners aren't buying the ones that are moving.

Take that how ever you want, but I think when these banks actually get in the making money off loans business, again. All Real Estate is going to plummet.

My gut feeling about what is going on, feels less sinister, and more idiotic now if you ask me.
Once again these dim phucks have shot them selves in the foot. And as for the banks, the Dumbasses could have sold me any of hundreds of houses, in the last month. For a lot more, than I am eventually going to buy it for. These 225K homes are headed for 150K and most of these houses currently listed between 150 to 190, will never see three figures again for along long long time.

Greed, meh...

3   junkmail   2010 Feb 24, 3:58am  

+1 Bass

4   thomas.wong1986   2010 Feb 24, 4:38am  

RayAmerica says

When considering the entire economic picture, we have a long deflationary road ahead

Deflation isnt a bad thing, Call it a much needed correction IMHO! Looking at Japan, their economy hasnt stopped making Sony products, Toyota Cars, or Toshiba Semiconductors and much much more.
Now compare that to high inflationary nations in South America!

5   Patrick   2010 Feb 24, 6:55am  

This line from that Bloomberg article is hilarious:

"The regulators at the Bank for International Settlements recommended Feb. 9th that banks hold enough liquid assets to survive for a month without access to funding."

What? They don't usually have enough liquid assets to survive even one month on their own? Wow.

6   seaside   2010 Feb 24, 12:18pm  

What? They don’t usually have enough liquid assets to survive even one month on their own? Wow.

Didn't you know that? :)

7   B.A.C.A.H.   2010 Feb 24, 2:20pm  

Guys,

Not enough liquid assests to survive even one month? - sounds like the banks are in a similar situation to most households.

8   MarkInSF   2010 Feb 24, 3:14pm  

The credit bubble has burst. The Federal Reserve and the US Treasury can keep blowing air into the bubble to keep it from collapsing very fast, but it's not going to start inflating any time soon.

9   thomas.wong1986   2010 Feb 24, 5:25pm  

Tenouncetrout says

These 225K homes are headed for 150K and most of these houses currently listed between 150 to 190, will never see three figures again for along long long time.

Right back where they should be.

10   thomas.wong1986   2010 Feb 24, 5:27pm  

thomas.wong1986 says

RayAmerica says


If you have cash, there will be so many bargains in the future, you’ll want to buy practically everything.

Not only in the future but you can weather any economic storm today while others have sunk
negative under debt.

11   seaside   2010 Feb 25, 1:23am  

thomas.wong1986 says

thomas.wong1986 says

RayAmerica says

If you have cash, there will be so many bargains in the future, you’ll want to buy practically everything.

Not only in the future but you can weather any economic storm today while others have sunk

negative under debt.

Depends on how much disposable cash you got.
Couple grands, well better than none. 100K, save more for the future, 1/2M then we're talking.

12   LAO   2010 Feb 25, 2:14am  

yeah, saving $2500 a month now... Renting for $1250.. If we were to buy anything we want to live in for 15 years in Los Angeles.. in a decent school district with low crime...we'd be blowing close to $3500 a month on a mortgage.... and that's not including upkeep, furniture to fill up the place ect...

we'll tough it out in a 1 bedroom apartment for the time being... probably upgrade to a 2 bedroom soon... while still saving $30K a year... I'm hoping in a few years my down-payment will buy us more house.. and at very worst.. about the same amount of house, but we'll be able to have a larger cash cushion than if we jumped in now.

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