patrick.net

i am with u..but not many think like us these days and I have no idea why..not sure what they are thinking and where they are getting money but prices have a long way to go down..

I don't know about a long way to fall. I think we are in for another small round of price drops due to the federal credit ending. There are tons of buyers for every house trying for the window to claim both state and federal tax credits here in the Inland Empire. Once the federal tax credit goes away (The state expects its alotted monies to last till June 30th or so) there should be a nice gap of sales till the next carrot the government throws our way. The gov. has already proven they will spend any amount of money necessary to keep prices stabilized.

I'm guessing we may see anther drop of 5-7% in 2010. Its just a guess. I am a working class renter looking to buy so not even an educated guess.

We're a bunch of vultures just devouring the remains of a carcass after the lions.

Any home not in the bubble price will get ravaged on it appears.

No. The market is nowhere near recovery mode. You should wait for several more years. If you are patient you should be able to pick up a nice house in Pacific Palisades or Brentwood for mid-90's prices. Or less. In time 4br/3ba should be available for $500K in LA's Westside. People are leaving SoCal in droves. No one will ever want to live there again. Same goes for Corona Del Mar and other coastal towns in SoCal.

DON'T CATCH A FALLING KNIFE!!!11!!!

http://blogs.wsj.com/economics/2010/04/24/number-of-the-week-103-months-to-clear-housing-inventory/?source=patrick.net

So….Is the housing market in Southern CA really recovering????

News Flash.. the drop in prices is the recovery! Any price fluctuation today is mear volitility.
To suggest somehow we will have a recovery of prices in the future is suggesting another wave of bubble prices perhaps fueled by some gimmicks. If so many people were unable to afford 2006 prices then by what reason would they afford it today?

People People !!! Did we learn anything from the past several years.

Well, here is one new little data point, saying that NATIONAL home prices fell 2% from Jan to Feb 2010. Please keep in mind that home prices normally INCREASE mo-mo in February, because peak buying season is starting.

http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2010/04/first-american-corelogic-house-prices.html

Now, unlike some people, I'm not going to use National prices to claim anything with certainty about Local prices, SoCal or otherwise. But it is an interesting data point, and may be an indication even of SoCal.

Btw, I also saw a similar dip story about Chicago, link courtesy of patrick.net front page

http://www.csmonitor.com/Money/Paper-Economy/2010/0422/Chicago-housing-bust?source=patrick.net

I do see that sales have increased for very cheap foreclosures and properties in really bad neighborhoods, because now those prices are low enough that you can rent those out and make a profit. At least you can if rents hold up, but with all the unemployment, rents seem to be falling. I even had a landlord in LA confirm falling rents to me personally.

I wouldn't call that increase in sales a "recovery" though. We still have a ton of foreclosures to work through, and prices are still too high compared to rent in any neighborhood I'd want to live in.

In my area of interest, it looks though prices should be much lower. But banks have manipulated prices by holding off on inventory, trying to feed 200 buyers with 1 property causing a bidding war.

It's like dumping 1 zebra into a pit of 100 lions. Not everyone will get to eat. But we all know that there is enough supply for everyone to pick the property up at its list price. But they do not want to settle for list price obviously. They want $100k over asking. Which is a 2006/2007 price.

This is not a buyer's market. It is a SELLER'S market.

Jimmy, I too live in So Cal (South OC to be exact). I've rented for years and have been visiting blogs like this one, Calculated Risk, Market Ticker, Zero Hedge and others for years. It's truly been an obsessive side hobby to study the housing market and then compare it with the three communities I've studied in particular in this region (Talega, Ladera Ranch, Aliso Viejo). I have been very bearish on the housing market since 2007 (when I really got involved in studying this mess). Furthermore, I have been extremely bearish on all three of these communities because:
A.) they all have quite high HOA's and tax rates. Thus making the monthly payment effectively much higher.
B.) All three communities are newer and were subsequently developed and "bought up" during the bubble years.
C.) The median income in these areas is far more middle class than the house prices indicate. These developments are full of small lot sizes and epitomize the McMansion Era.

I have gone through the same issues that you seem to be facing now. While you see all the reasons for the housing market to be failing, everyone around you is clamoring about buying (and some are actually doing so). I've heard the absolute ludicrous Realtorspeak countless times. I've even heard co-workers talking about how the housing market "has to be at bottom because it can't get any lower". Obviously, there is no IQ requirement to have an opinion. In all, I know EXACTLY how you are feeling.

Now here is the shocker... I am closing escrow on a house in early May. BofA short sale with two loans. Balance outstanding of over 700k going for close to 500k. In comparison to the neighborhood comps, we are getting a good deal. However, I still slap myself in the face when I think about how little HALF A MILLION dollars gets you around here. What about the median income to median home price? What about the defaults? Yes and yes. They both are skewed. However, here are a few things that I have seen during my three years of studying the buying trends and talking with Realtards.
A.) While pricing in Southern OC seems expensive to me, it's pretty cheap in comparision to Pasadena and other parts of LA. Even Irvine is a more expensive alternative. So, it's all relative when we say "expensive" to the other options.
B.) People truly looking for a deal can find one, in the Inland Empire. Just as Aliso Viejo is a cheap option compared to Irvine, O.C. is an expensive option realtive to the I.E..
C.) Parents helping first time home buyers. A lot of the younger generation is getting assistance from their wealthier parents in the form of downpayments. This will throw off the income to home values because the downpayment assistor isn't listed as a resident. I've seen this a LOT locally.
D.) Perception. Yes, a lot of the people on this blog (including yourself) are very smart. You know the numbers and I am one to believe that numbers never lie. However, I'm really starting to wonder if we're looking at all the right numbers when it comes to your local market. Some markets will continue to deteriorate. Others will do well. I've decided that sometimes, the masses can make things happen beyond what you would normally believe was possible.

I hope that helps. Even if you just realize that you're not alone in your confusion and annoyance with watching the local prices bump up month after month. It was irritating as all hell to me. I still see Talega dropping because the super high HOA's and tax rates on top of the cost of transportation with rising fuel prices.

Personally, I'm happy to be over it and we found a place that works for us and we can afford. Not buying it to make 100k in appreciation, just to be able to have a yard and plant some succulents. Anyway, good luck and whatever your decision is, stick by it. At the end of the day, you have to live with your decision and you have to be able to back it when someone tries to tell you "all about the housing market". Wish you all the best!

Gsiderius - Thanks for your response. The numbers and my gut tells me to wait at least 2-3 more years to see how this all plays out. I don't make that much money so being down over $100k on a house will throw out that "sense of ownership" feeling right out the window. =)

Listen to Mr. Mortgage's most recent interview...he presents hard data on why California, and So Cal included, is in for tough times ahead...

thomas.wong1986 says

So….Is the housing market in Southern CA really recovering????
News Flash.. the drop in prices is the recovery! Any price fluctuation today is mear volitility.
To suggest somehow we will have a recovery of prices in the future is suggesting another wave of bubble prices perhaps fueled by some gimmicks. If so many people were unable to afford 2006 prices then by what reason would they afford it today?
People People !!! Did we learn anything from the past several years.

I like the part in which you state the truth: "the drop in prices is the recovery!"

Prices need to come down to a point where families can afford a home on a single income.

gsiderius says

Jimmy, I too live in So Cal (South OC to be exact). I’ve rented for years and have been visiting blogs like this one, Calculated Risk, Market Ticker, Zero Hedge and others for years. It’s truly been an obsessive side hobby to study the housing market and then compare it with the three communities I’ve studied in particular in this region (Talega, Ladera Ranch, Aliso Viejo). I have been very bearish on the housing market since 2007 (when I really got involved in studying this mess). Furthermore, I have been extremely bearish on all three of these communities because:
A.) they all have quite high HOA’s and tax rates. Thus making the monthly payment effectively much higher.
B.) All three communities are newer and were subsequently developed and “bought up” during the bubble years.
C.) The median income in these areas is far more middle class than the house prices indicate. These developments are full of small lot sizes and epitomize the McMansion Era.
I have gone through the same issues that you seem to be facing now. While you see all the reasons for the housing market to be failing, everyone around you is clamoring about buying (and some are actually doing so). I’ve heard the absolute ludicrous Realtorspeak countless times. I’ve even heard co-workers talking about how the housing market “has to be at bottom because it can’t get any lower”. Obviously, there is no IQ requirement to have an opinion. In all, I know EXACTLY how you are feeling.
Now here is the shocker… I am closing escrow on a house in early May. BofA short sale with two loans. Balance outstanding of over 700k going for close to 500k. In comparison to the neighborhood comps, we are getting a good deal. However, I still slap myself in the face when I think about how little HALF A MILLION dollars gets you around here. What about the median income to median home price? What about the defaults? Yes and yes. They both are skewed. However, here are a few things that I have seen during my three years of studying the buying trends and talking with Realtards.
A.) While pricing in Southern OC seems expensive to me, it’s pretty cheap in comparision to Pasadena and other parts of LA. Even Irvine is a more expensive alternative. So, it’s all relative when we say “expensive” to the other options.
B.) People truly looking for a deal can find one, in the Inland Empire. Just as Aliso Viejo is a cheap option compared to Irvine, O.C. is an expensive option realtive to the I.E..
C.) Parents helping first time home buyers. A lot of the younger generation is getting assistance from their wealthier parents in the form of downpayments. This will throw off the income to home values because the downpayment assistor isn’t listed as a resident. I’ve seen this a LOT locally.
D.) Perception. Yes, a lot of the people on this blog (including yourself) are very smart. You know the numbers and I am one to believe that numbers never lie. However, I’m really starting to wonder if we’re looking at all the right numbers when it comes to your local market. Some markets will continue to deteriorate. Others will do well. I’ve decided that sometimes, the masses can make things happen beyond what you would normally believe was possible.
I hope that helps. Even if you just realize that you’re not alone in your confusion and annoyance with watching the local prices bump up month after month. It was irritating as all hell to me. I still see Talega dropping because the super high HOA’s and tax rates on top of the cost of transportation with rising fuel prices.
Personally, I’m happy to be over it and we found a place that works for us and we can afford. Not buying it to make 100k in appreciation, just to be able to have a yard and plant some succulents. Anyway, good luck and whatever your decision is, stick by it. At the end of the day, you have to live with your decision and you have to be able to back it when someone tries to tell you “all about the housing market”. Wish you all the best!

You could have rented the same house in South OC areas for around 2k per month, so what made you decide to spend 3,500/mos to own?

Did you not actualize the fact that you would be able to invest an additional $1500/mo in your 401k?

Was it your wifes forever nagging about buying?

Just curious because I am waiting for better days, where rents outweigh the mortgage and I can turn a profit should I want to move and rent a place.

no, go redfin.com and search the location you like, you will see listing is going up every single week. this is my common sense: I would pay $200k @ 8% mortgage other than $400k @ 4%. Pls don't take me wrong, I am saying simple math.
Also, It is not right when you have to pay $650k for a house of 1500 sqf + 3400 sqf lot. No, it is far way to go.
I will jump in when rate goes to about 7%, when gov stops pushing you to buy or traps you in debt.

E-man - I won't pretend I know what your calculation mean but can you explain so most of us (or just me) can understand?

Jimmy, the rent vs. buy calculation is best looked at the actual after-tax outgo each year, and money spent paying down the loan principal should NOT be compared with the rent expense, since unless you find it necessary (and are able to) walk away from the loan, principal repayments are a form of" forced savings" essentially (you get that money back when you sell).

Using some numbers, on a $500K house with 20% down:

Principal: $400,000

IO $1750.00
PMI $0.00
Prop Tax $514.17
Tax Credit ($629.79)

Subtotal $1634.38

So in year 1, assuming a total 35.2% total tax burden, the $500K house has a rough after-tax "carrying cost" of ~$1600/mo.

It's important to note that (thanks to Prop 13 and the amortization of the loan balance) this GOES DOWN over time. In 2030 annual interest on the loan will be half ($1000/mo) what it is now, while if history is any guide $1000 might be the cost of dinner and a movie for the family by then.

There are other expenses I throw in to compare against rents:

HO Ins $80.00
HOA/Utils 150.00
Maintenance 100.00
Opportunity 436.57 (this is mostly lost interest on the downpayment)

Total Other $766.57

Nominal Cost $2400.95

This "Nominal Cost" is what I compare against the cost of renting.

E-man's "cash-on-cash return" just means the $100K down payment is leveraged 5X on the $500K house. If the house rises 3% per year, the cash investment will gain 15% per year.

This works in reverse, too, should prices decline, but nobody thinks prices will decline from here. . .

robertoaribas says

Inflation may be 3%, but assuming that for a home today is ludicrous!

+3% pa forecasts this property being worth 1.2 megabeans in 2040.

A similar rate of appreciation back-dated to 1980 gives us a 1980 price of $200K, a wee-bit high I would think, so if today's prices hold the appreciation since 1980 has been a bit greater than 3%.

Of course 1980-2010 was NO WAY NO HOW anything like 2010-2040 will be. The previous 30 years featured the baby boomers aging from 25 to 55. The next 30 feature them aging from 55 to 85, ie hopefully dying off. The minimum wage has doubled since 1980, will it double again -- to $15 -- by 2040? (probably, I'd guess). OC has the advantage of being an enclave that tends to rent-collect out-of-area money, so it has that going for it.

Even if the short-term trend is pain, it's difficult to predict what will happen to prices in OC. There's lots of money sitting on the sidelines, waiting for The Time to join the Monopoly game.

robertoaribas says

you are smoking crack thinking there is a 600 dollar tax credit. seriously! You LOSE your standard deductions! it is not a straight darn credit, google it, learn something! I get exactly 0 dollars tax credit for my 200K mortgage, because the standard deduction is still bigger

True, but we are talking about a $400K loan not a $200K loan. The $11,400 standard deduction is $950/mo, while interest and property taxes are $2250/mo, so the tax credit in the 35% bracket is still worth ~$450/mo over the standard deduction ($2250-$950)*35%

robertoaribas says

Watch that 100K down payment disappear in the next 12 to 24 months…

I am more with you than e-man on this, but I do think in 2040 this house will be $1M+ so buying now won't be a terminal mistake. Probably better to buy with 3.5% down with the option of walking away in 2012 should things slide some more.

http://www.irs.gov/individuals/article/0,,id=179414,00.html

Me, I've learned to wait for the turn.

http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2010/04/first-american-corelogic-house-prices.html

My internal model leans in this direction:

OK, I normalized the Japan graph in time and space:

Troy says

Jimmy, the rent vs. buy calculation is best looked at the actual after-tax outgo each year, and money spent paying down the loan principal should NOT be compared with the rent expense, since unless you find it necessary (and are able to) walk away from the loan, principal repayments are a form of” forced savings” essentially (you get that money back when you sell).
Using some numbers, on a $500K house with 20% down:
Principal: $400,000
IO $1750.00

PMI $0.00

Prop Tax $514.17

Tax Credit ($629.79)
Subtotal $1634.38
So in year 1, assuming a total 35.2% total tax burden, the $500K house has a rough after-tax “carrying cost” of ~$1600/mo.
It’s important to note that (thanks to Prop 13 and the amortization of the loan balance) this GOES DOWN over time. In 2030 annual interest on the loan will be half ($1000/mo) what it is now, while if history is any guide $1000 might be the cost of dinner and a movie for the family by then.
There are other expenses I throw in to compare against rents:
HO Ins $80.00

HOA/Utils 150.00

Maintenance 100.00

Opportunity 436.57 (this is mostly lost interest on the downpayment)
Total Other $766.57
Nominal Cost $2400.95
This “Nominal Cost” is what I compare against the cost of renting.
E-man’s “cash-on-cash return” just means the $100K down payment is leveraged 5X on the $500K house. If the house rises 3% per year, the cash investment will gain 15% per year.
This works in reverse, too, should prices decline, but nobody thinks prices will decline from here. . .

Thanks Troy!

@4X,
while we differ on politics, your housing view and mine are a match. Great posts.

Bap33 says

@4X,
while we differ on politics, your housing view and mine are a match. Great posts.

I agree, even if he could afford the house and the rent vs buy calculators say to buy I think he should have still thought about the fact that the market is still has the potential to drop.